基于公平的中国省域碳排放差异模型构建探讨——以中国2010年碳排放为例
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摘要
中国各省份经济发展水平不同,其CO2排放也存在很大的空间差异。作者认为碳排放的区域差异不应只体现在其绝对排放数量上,更要体现在其与社会、经济和生态的兼容度差异上。因此本文首先运用IPCC2006清单法计算出了2010年中国各省份碳排放数量,然后对之进行了空间差异分析。接着在综合考虑碳排放的生态、公平和效率前提下,尝试性地构建了碳排放区域差异的3E模型体系,并用之进行了具体计算。结果表明,虽然广东、湖北、四川和黑龙江等省的碳排放绝对量大,但这些省份的Y3E值均大于1,表明这些区域的碳汇能力很强,无论从生态、公平还是从效率的角度来说其碳排放都是在其省域的生态承载范畴之内。由此证明新构建的3E模型对中国碳排放区域差异研究是有益的参考和补充。
Along with different development levels amongst China's provinces,there are also huge spatial differences in carbon dioxide emissions. These regional differences in carbon dioxide emissions should not only be embodied in absolute quantity,but also reflect compatibilities with their society,economy and ecology. Here,we calculated the absolute quantity of carbon dioxide emissions in China's provinces in 2010 using IPCC2006 methods and then analyzed spatial differences between provinces. Then we attempted to build a 3E-model which includes the three main indicators of ecology,equity and efficiency,and explored the spatial difference distribution of Y3Evalues for China's carbon emissions in 2010. The results show that although the absolute quantities of carbon emissions in Guangdong,Hubei,Sichuan and Heilongjiang were large,their Y3Evalues calculated by the 3E-model were greater than 1,indicating that their capacities as carbon sinks were strong no matter their ecology,equity or efficiency. That is to say,though their carbon emissions were huge in terms of absolute quantity,they were still within their provincial ecological carrying capacity. The 3E- model applied here is a beneficial supplement for analyzing regional differences in provincial carbon emissions in China and will provide a new way to study regional spatial differences in carbon emissions.
Along with different development levels amongst China's provinces,there are also huge spatial differences in carbon dioxide emissions. These regional differences in carbon dioxide emissions should not only be embodied in absolute quantity,but also reflect compatibilities with their society,economy and ecology. Here,we calculated the absolute quantity of carbon dioxide emissions in China's provinces in 2010 using IPCC2006 methods and then analyzed spatial differences between provinces. Then we attempted to build a 3E-model which includes the three main indicators of ecology,equity and efficiency,and explored the spatial difference distribution of Y3Evalues for China's carbon emissions in 2010. The results show that although the absolute quantities of carbon emissions in Guangdong,Hubei,Sichuan and Heilongjiang were large,their Y3Evalues calculated by the 3E-model were greater than 1,indicating that their capacities as carbon sinks were strong no matter their ecology,equity or efficiency. That is to say,though their carbon emissions were huge in terms of absolute quantity,they were still within their provincial ecological carrying capacity. The 3E- model applied here is a beneficial supplement for analyzing regional differences in provincial carbon emissions in China and will provide a new way to study regional spatial differences in carbon emissions.
引文
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[3]张德英,张丽霞.碳源排碳量估算办法研究进展[J].内蒙古林业科技,2005,(1):20-23.
[4]IPCC,OECD,IEA.Revised 1996 IPCC Guidelines for NationalGreenhouse Gas Inventories[R].Paris:OECD,1996.
[5]齐中英.描述CO2排放量的数学模型与影响因素的分解分析[J].技术经济,1998,(3):42-45.
[6]刘明明.全球气候变化背景下碳排放空间的公平分配-以德班会议《公平获取可持续发展》的基本政治立场为分析进路[J].法学评论,2012,(4):78-84.
[7]祁悦,谢高地.碳排放空间分配及其对中国区域功能的影响[J].资源科学,2009,(4):590-597.
[8]聂锐,张涛,王迪.基于IPAT模型的江苏省能源消费与碳排放情景研究[J].自然资源学报,2010,(9):1557-1564.
[9]Duro J A.International mobility in carbon dioxide emissions[J].Energy Policy,2013,55:208-216.
[10]李惠民,齐晔.中国2050年碳排放情景比较[J].气候变化研究进展,2011,(4):271-280.
[11]陈华,诸大建,邹丽.全球主要国家的CO2排放空间研究-基于生态、公平、效率模型[J].东北大学学报(社会科学版),2012,14(2):120-124.
[12]卢俊宇,黄贤金,戴靓,等.基于时空尺度的中国省级区域能源消费碳排放公平性分析[J].自然资源学报,2012,27(12):2006-2017.
[13]黄蓓佳,杨海真.中国碳减排承诺解读及碳交易发展研究[J].长江流域资源与环境,2011,(12):11-13.
[14]赵英时.遥感应用分析原理与方法[M].北京:科学出版社,2003.
[15]Leemans R,Eickhout B,Strengers B,et al.The consequences ofuncertainties in land use,climate and vegetation responses on theterrestrial carbon[J].Science In China Series C Life Sciences(EnglishEdition),2002,45(SUPP):126-141.
[16]曾贤刚,庞含霜.我国各省区CO2排放状况、趋势及其减排对策[J].中国软科学,2009,(S1):64-70.
[17]高吉喜.可持续发展理论探索-生态承载力理论、方法与应用[M].北京:中国环境科学出版社,2002.
[18]张秀梅,李升峰,黄贤金,等.江苏省1996年至2007年碳排放效应及时空格局分析[J].资源科学,2010,32(4):768-775.
[19]张兴榆,黄贤金,赵小风,等.环太湖地区土地利用变化对植被碳储量的影响[J].自然资源学报,2009,(8):1343-1353.
[20]Tsuruta H,Mosier A.Estimate of CH4emissions from year-roundflooded rice fields during rice growing season in China[J].Pedosphere,2005,15(1):66-71.
[21]方精云,郭兆迪,朴世龙,等.1981-2000年中国陆地植被碳汇的估算[J].中国科学(D辑:地球科学),2007,37(6):804-812.
[22]赖力.中国土地利用的碳排放效应研究[M].南京:南京大学出版社,2011.