国内旅游能否突破“胡焕庸线”——国庆黄金周与全年国内旅游西向迁移趋势分析
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摘要
以2005—2017年国庆黄金周与全年国内旅游客流量数据为依据,通过四分位空间分级、集中性与差异性指数比较及重心转移轨迹测量,分析黄金周与全年国内旅游的空间结构变化,探讨国内旅游能否率先突破"胡焕庸线"以实现东西部经济的均衡发展。结果表明:黄金周与全年国内旅游呈现"胡焕庸线"的分布特征,历年来两者发展规模均有所提升并呈现向西扩展趋势;黄金周与全年国内旅游地区差异趋于扁平化,其中后者扁平化趋势更为显著,但"胡焕庸线"两侧的累加市场占比差距依旧较大;黄金周与全年国内旅游重心具有向西南推进趋势,且全年比黄金周推进的幅度更大;结合人口、经济分布及两者权衡,本文设定了国内旅游突破"胡焕庸线"的3个标准,依据时间序列分析及预测,2016年国内旅游已跨越了经济界线4%,预计到2020年、2021年有可能突破人口-经济权衡界线5%,2023年、2024年突破人口界线6%。
The "Hu Line" is a significant geographical boundary of China′s population and economy distribution. Tourism has strong liquidity and economic driving ability. Whether domestic tourism can take the lead in breaking through the "Hu Line" is an important step to achieve balanced economic development between China′s eastern and western regions. Based on the tourist traffic data of National Day Golden Week tourism and annual domestic tourism in 2005-2017, through the quartile space grading, comparing concentration and difference index and measuring the track of gravity center, the spatial structure changes of National Day Golden Week tourism and annual domestic tourism are analyzed. The results indicate that National Day Golden Week tourism and annual domestic tourism present obvious "Hu Line" spatial distribution characteristics. Over the years, the tourist size of both increased and it has demonstrated a trend of expanding westward. The regional gap of National Day Golden Week tourism and annual domestic tourism tends to be flat, and the latter flattening trend is more apparent, but the cumulative market share difference on both sides of the "Hu Line" is still relatively large. The gravity centers of National Day Golden Week tourism and annual domestic tourism are shifting to southwest region, and the annual is sharper than the Golden Week. Combining population, economy distribution and their trade-offs, three standards for domestic tourism to span the "Hu Line" are set. According to time series analysis and forecast, domestic tourism has crossed the economy boundary(4%) in 2016. It is expected that it will break through the population-economy balance boundary(5%)in 2020-2021, and it will surmount the population boundary(6%) in 2023-2024.
The "Hu Line" is a significant geographical boundary of China′s population and economy distribution. Tourism has strong liquidity and economic driving ability. Whether domestic tourism can take the lead in breaking through the "Hu Line" is an important step to achieve balanced economic development between China′s eastern and western regions. Based on the tourist traffic data of National Day Golden Week tourism and annual domestic tourism in 2005-2017, through the quartile space grading, comparing concentration and difference index and measuring the track of gravity center, the spatial structure changes of National Day Golden Week tourism and annual domestic tourism are analyzed. The results indicate that National Day Golden Week tourism and annual domestic tourism present obvious "Hu Line" spatial distribution characteristics. Over the years, the tourist size of both increased and it has demonstrated a trend of expanding westward. The regional gap of National Day Golden Week tourism and annual domestic tourism tends to be flat, and the latter flattening trend is more apparent, but the cumulative market share difference on both sides of the "Hu Line" is still relatively large. The gravity centers of National Day Golden Week tourism and annual domestic tourism are shifting to southwest region, and the annual is sharper than the Golden Week. Combining population, economy distribution and their trade-offs, three standards for domestic tourism to span the "Hu Line" are set. According to time series analysis and forecast, domestic tourism has crossed the economy boundary(4%) in 2016. It is expected that it will break through the population-economy balance boundary(5%)in 2020-2021, and it will surmount the population boundary(6%) in 2023-2024.
引文
[1] 胡焕庸.中国人口之分布:附统计表与密度图[J].地理学报,1935,2(2):33-74.
[2] TIEN H Y.Demography in China:from zero to now[J].Population Index,1981,47(4):683-710.
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[4] 陈明星,李扬,龚颖华,等.胡焕庸线两侧的人口分布与城镇化格局趋势:尝试回答李克强总理之问[J].地理学报,2016,71(2):179-193.
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[6] 王桂新,潘泽瀚.中国人口迁移分布的顽健性与胡焕庸线[J].中国人口科学,2016(1):2-13.
[7] 夏海斌,王铮.中国大陆空间结构分异的进化[J].地理研究,2012,31(12):2123-2138.
[8] 李培林.新型城镇化与突破“胡焕庸线”[N].人民日报,2015-1-8(16).
[9] 李晋华,孙根年.东西部六大热点城市入境与国内旅游发展及比较优势分析[J].经济地理,2015,35(1):187-194.
[10] 阮文奇,郑向敏,李勇泉,等.中国入境旅游的“胡焕庸线”空间分布特征及驱动机理研究[J].经济地理,2018,38(3):181-199.
[11] 马耀峰,林志慧,刘宪锋,等.中国主要城市入境旅游网络结构演变分析[J].地理科学,2014,34(1):25-31.
[12] 汪德根.中国旅游经济的省际比较研究[J].经济地理,2001,21(s1),278-281.
[13] 章锦河,张捷,李娜,等.中国国内旅游流空间场效应分析[J].地理研究,2005,24(2):293-303.
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[16] 大风号.《中国国内旅游发展年度报告2018》:国内旅游诉求正从美丽风景转向美好生活[EB/OL].[2018-07-16].http://wemedia.ifeng.com/69331874 /wemedia.shtml.
[17] 李志飞,夏磊.中国特殊时段旅游流时空分布特征研究:以“十一”黄金周为例[J].旅游学刊,2013,28(10):37-46.
[18] 陆大道,王铮,封志明,等.关于“胡焕庸线能否突破”的学术争鸣[J].地理研究,2016,35(5):805-824.
[19] 戚伟,刘盛和,赵美风.“胡焕庸线”的稳定性及其两侧人口集疏模式差异[J].地理学报,2015,70(4):551-566.
[20] 杨亚丽,孙根年.城市化推动我国国内旅游发展的时空动态分析[J].经济地理,2013,33(7):169-175.
[21] 王开泳,邓羽.新型城镇化能否突破“胡焕庸线”:兼论“胡焕庸线”的地理学内涵[J].地理研究,2016,35(5):825-835.
[22] 胡文海,孙建平,余菲菲.安徽省区域旅游经济发展的时空格局演变[J].地理研究,2015,34(9):1795-1806.
[23] 谢雪梅,孙根年,韩春鲜.事件旅游对新疆旅游业的影响分析[J].干旱区地理,2010,33(3):487-492.
[24] 马丽君,孙根年,王宏丹,等.汶川地震对四川及周边省区旅游业的影响[J].中国人口·资源与环境,2010,20(3):168-174.
[25] 孙根年,于立新.基于本底趋势线的秦俑馆旅游危机后评价研究[J].地理科学,2008,28(1):107-112.
[26] 高德地图.2018十一黄金周国民出行报告[EB/OL].[2018-10-08].https://report.amap.com/download_city.do.
[2] TIEN H Y.Demography in China:from zero to now[J].Population Index,1981,47(4):683-710.
[3] 杨芳.李克强之问:“胡焕庸线”怎么破?[EB/OL].[2014-11-29].http://www.gov.cn/xinwen/ 2014-11/29/ content_ 2784676.htm.
[4] 陈明星,李扬,龚颖华,等.胡焕庸线两侧的人口分布与城镇化格局趋势:尝试回答李克强总理之问[J].地理学报,2016,71(2):179-193.
[5] 李佳洺,陆大道,徐成东,等.胡焕庸线两侧人口的空间分异性及其变化[J].地理学报,2017,72(1):148-160.
[6] 王桂新,潘泽瀚.中国人口迁移分布的顽健性与胡焕庸线[J].中国人口科学,2016(1):2-13.
[7] 夏海斌,王铮.中国大陆空间结构分异的进化[J].地理研究,2012,31(12):2123-2138.
[8] 李培林.新型城镇化与突破“胡焕庸线”[N].人民日报,2015-1-8(16).
[9] 李晋华,孙根年.东西部六大热点城市入境与国内旅游发展及比较优势分析[J].经济地理,2015,35(1):187-194.
[10] 阮文奇,郑向敏,李勇泉,等.中国入境旅游的“胡焕庸线”空间分布特征及驱动机理研究[J].经济地理,2018,38(3):181-199.
[11] 马耀峰,林志慧,刘宪锋,等.中国主要城市入境旅游网络结构演变分析[J].地理科学,2014,34(1):25-31.
[12] 汪德根.中国旅游经济的省际比较研究[J].经济地理,2001,21(s1),278-281.
[13] 章锦河,张捷,李娜,等.中国国内旅游流空间场效应分析[J].地理研究,2005,24(2):293-303.
[14] 中国旅游研究院.《中国国内旅游发展年度报告2017》研究成果[EB/OL].[2017-09-01].http://www.ctaweb.org/html/2017-9/2017-9-1-8-29-27775.html.
[15] 中国经济网.王兴斌:中国的大众旅游时代还在路上[EB/OL].[2017-09-07].http://news.hexun.com/2017-09-07/190766500.html.
[16] 大风号.《中国国内旅游发展年度报告2018》:国内旅游诉求正从美丽风景转向美好生活[EB/OL].[2018-07-16].http://wemedia.ifeng.com/69331874 /wemedia.shtml.
[17] 李志飞,夏磊.中国特殊时段旅游流时空分布特征研究:以“十一”黄金周为例[J].旅游学刊,2013,28(10):37-46.
[18] 陆大道,王铮,封志明,等.关于“胡焕庸线能否突破”的学术争鸣[J].地理研究,2016,35(5):805-824.
[19] 戚伟,刘盛和,赵美风.“胡焕庸线”的稳定性及其两侧人口集疏模式差异[J].地理学报,2015,70(4):551-566.
[20] 杨亚丽,孙根年.城市化推动我国国内旅游发展的时空动态分析[J].经济地理,2013,33(7):169-175.
[21] 王开泳,邓羽.新型城镇化能否突破“胡焕庸线”:兼论“胡焕庸线”的地理学内涵[J].地理研究,2016,35(5):825-835.
[22] 胡文海,孙建平,余菲菲.安徽省区域旅游经济发展的时空格局演变[J].地理研究,2015,34(9):1795-1806.
[23] 谢雪梅,孙根年,韩春鲜.事件旅游对新疆旅游业的影响分析[J].干旱区地理,2010,33(3):487-492.
[24] 马丽君,孙根年,王宏丹,等.汶川地震对四川及周边省区旅游业的影响[J].中国人口·资源与环境,2010,20(3):168-174.
[25] 孙根年,于立新.基于本底趋势线的秦俑馆旅游危机后评价研究[J].地理科学,2008,28(1):107-112.
[26] 高德地图.2018十一黄金周国民出行报告[EB/OL].[2018-10-08].https://report.amap.com/download_city.do.