威廉·诺德豪斯对空间经济学的贡献
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摘要
空间一直是威廉·诺德豪斯气候变化经济研究的重要因素。本文旨在评述他对空间经济学的重要贡献,表明考虑空间因素不仅提升了气候变化经济模型的实用性与精确性,也加深了对气温与经济增长关系的认识。本文围绕他获得2018年度诺贝尔经济学奖的学术贡献,依据他的区域气候-经济综合评估模型(RICE系列模型)与他探索全球经济活动的地-经济学(G-Econ)项目的研究成果,从多区域框架和球面空间两个角度阐明其模型中经济要素的空间体现形式、空间动态变化及其影响,揭示他对空间的理解以及空间在全球气候变化、经济发展研究中的重要性。最后,本文讨论了影响威廉·诺德豪斯研究的空间分析与模型的主要方法。
Space is a significant element in William D.Nordhaus’ models of climate change.The purpose of this paper is to present his contributions to spatial economics,indicating that taking space into account would not only increase the applicability and accuracy of the integrated climate-economy models but enhance the understanding of the relationships between temperature and economic growth.Focusing on his main contributions for which Nordhaus was awarded the Nobel Prize as well as his RICE models and G-Econ project,this paper not only illustrates the spatial forms,dynamics,and impacts of economic factors in the models,but also demonstrates how space is understood and integrated in his modeling of global climate change and economic development,from the perspectives of multi-region and spherical space.Finally,his use of spatial analysis and modeling methods is discussed.
Space is a significant element in William D.Nordhaus’ models of climate change.The purpose of this paper is to present his contributions to spatial economics,indicating that taking space into account would not only increase the applicability and accuracy of the integrated climate-economy models but enhance the understanding of the relationships between temperature and economic growth.Focusing on his main contributions for which Nordhaus was awarded the Nobel Prize as well as his RICE models and G-Econ project,this paper not only illustrates the spatial forms,dynamics,and impacts of economic factors in the models,but also demonstrates how space is understood and integrated in his modeling of global climate change and economic development,from the perspectives of multi-region and spherical space.Finally,his use of spatial analysis and modeling methods is discussed.
引文
陈棉刘晓玫李国砚,2007:《统计数据空间可视化方法分析》,《测绘科学》第4期。
罗良文茹雪赵凡,2018:《气候变化的经济影响研究进展》,《经济学动态》第10期。
诺贝尔经济学奖委员会,2018:《经济增长、技术变革和气候变化》,《经济学动态》第12期。潘志强刘高焕,2002:《面插值的研究进展》,《地理科学进展》第2期。
王贤彬黄亮雄,2018:《夜间灯光数据及其在经济学研究中的应用》,《经济学动态》第10期。向国成李宾田银华,2011:《威廉·诺德豪斯与气候变化经济学》,《经济学动态》第4期。
赵作权,2013:《空间经济分析研究综述》,《中国区域经济》第4期。
赵作权,2014:《空间格局统计与空间经济分析》,科学出版社。
Anselin,L.(1988),Spatial Econometrics:Methods and Models,Kluwer Academic Publishers.
Anselin,L.et al(2006),“GeoDa:An introduction to spatial data analysis”,Geographical Analysis 38(1):5-22.
Burchfield,M.et al(2006),“Causes of sprawl:A portrait from space”,Quarterly Journal of Economics 121(2):587-633.
Chen,X.&W.D.Nordhaus(2011),“Using luminosity data as a proxy for economic statistics”,Proceedings of National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America 108(21):8589-8594.
The Committee for the Prize in Economic Sciences in Memory of Alfred Nobel(2018),“Economic growth,technological change,and climate change”,https://www.nobelprize.org.
Dell,M.et al(2014),“What do we learn from the weather?The new climate–economy literature”,Journal of Economic Literature 52(3):740-798.
Donaldson,D.(2018),“Railroads of the Raj:Estimating the impact of transportation infrastructure”,American Economic Review108(4-5):899-934.
Donaldson,D.&R.Hornbeck(2016),“Railroads and American economic growth:A ‘market access’approach”,Quarterly Journal of Economics 131(2):799-858.
Donaldson,D.&A.Storeygard(2016),“The view from above:Applications of satellite data in economics”,Journal of Economic Perspectives 30(4):171-198.
Fisher,P.F.&M.Langford(1995),“Modelling the errors in areal interpolation between zonal systems by Monte Carlo simulation”,Environment and Palanning A27(2):211-224.
Flowerdew,R.&M.Green(1989),“Statistical metods for inference between incompatible zonal systems”,in:M.Goodchild &S.Gopal(eds),The Accuracy of Spatial Databases,Taylor and Francis.
Fotheringham,A.S.et al(2000),Quantitative Geography:Perspectives on Spatial Data Analysis,Sage.
Gotway,C.A.&L.J.Young(2002),“Combining incompatible spatial data”,Journal of the American Statistical Association 97(458):632-648.
Krugman,P.(1991),“Increasing returns and economic geography”,Journal of Political Economy99(1):483-499.
Mendelsohn,R.,W.D.Nordhaus &D.Shaw(1994),“The impact of global warming on agriculture:A Ricardian analysis”,American Economic Review84(4):753-771.
Miller,J.R.(1998),“Spatial aggregation and regional economic forecasting”,Annals of Regional Science 32(2):253-266.
Nordhaus,W.D.(1994),Managing the Global Commons:The Economics of Climate Change,MIT Press.
Nordhaus,W.D.(2002),“Alterative approaches to spatial rescaling”,Yale University,Working Paper(Version 2.2.2).
Nordhaus,W.D.(2006),“Geography and macroeconomics:New data and new findings”,Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America 103(10):3510-3517.
Nordhaus,W.D.(2008),“New metrics for environmental economics:Gridded economic data”,Integrated Assessment Journal Bridging Sciences &Policy8(1):73-84.
Nordhaus,W.D.(2010),“Economic aspects of global warming in a post-Copenhagen environment”,Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America 107(26):11721-11726.
Nordhaus,W.D.(2015),“Climate clubs:Overcoming free-riding in international climate policy”,American Economic Review105(4):1339-1370.
Nordhaus,W.D.(2018),“Evolution of modeling of the economics of global warming:Changes in the DICE model,1992-2017”,NBER Working Paper,No.23319.
Nordhaus W.D.&J.Boyer(2000),Warming the World:Economic Models of Global Warming,MIT Press.
Nordhaus,W.D.&X.Chen(2009),“Geography:Graphics and economics”,B.E.Journal of Economic Analysis &Policy9(2):1-14.
Nordhaus,W.D.&X.Chen(2015),“A sharper image?Estimates of the precision of nighttime lights as a proxy for economic statistics”,Journal of Economic Geography15(1):217-246.
Nordhaus,W.D.&Z.Yang(1996),“A regional dynamic general-equilibrium model of alternative climate-change strategies”,American Economic Review86(4):741-765.
Nordhaus,W.D.et al(2006),“The G-Econ database on gridded output:Methods and data”,Yale University,http://gecon.yale.edu.
Nuzzo,R.(2006),“Profile of William D.Nordhaus”,Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America 103(26):9753-9755.
Overman,H.(2010),“‘GIS a job’:What use geographical information systems in spatial economics?”,Journal of Regional Science 50(1):165-180.
Quah,D.(2011),“The global economys shifting centre of gravity”,Global Policy2(1):3-7.
Redding,S.J.&E.Rossi-Hansberg(2017),“Quantitative spatial economics”,Annual Review of Economics 9(1):21-58.
Tobler,W.(1979),“Smooth pycnopylactic interpolation for geographical regions”,Journal of the American Statistical Association 74(367):519-530.
Tobler,W.(2002),“Global spatial analysis”,Computers,Environment and Urban Systems 26:493-500.
Tobler,W.et al(1995),The Global Demography Project Technical Report 1995-6.National Center for Geographic Information and Analysis,Santa Barbara,CA.
罗良文茹雪赵凡,2018:《气候变化的经济影响研究进展》,《经济学动态》第10期。
诺贝尔经济学奖委员会,2018:《经济增长、技术变革和气候变化》,《经济学动态》第12期。潘志强刘高焕,2002:《面插值的研究进展》,《地理科学进展》第2期。
王贤彬黄亮雄,2018:《夜间灯光数据及其在经济学研究中的应用》,《经济学动态》第10期。向国成李宾田银华,2011:《威廉·诺德豪斯与气候变化经济学》,《经济学动态》第4期。
赵作权,2013:《空间经济分析研究综述》,《中国区域经济》第4期。
赵作权,2014:《空间格局统计与空间经济分析》,科学出版社。
Anselin,L.(1988),Spatial Econometrics:Methods and Models,Kluwer Academic Publishers.
Anselin,L.et al(2006),“GeoDa:An introduction to spatial data analysis”,Geographical Analysis 38(1):5-22.
Burchfield,M.et al(2006),“Causes of sprawl:A portrait from space”,Quarterly Journal of Economics 121(2):587-633.
Chen,X.&W.D.Nordhaus(2011),“Using luminosity data as a proxy for economic statistics”,Proceedings of National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America 108(21):8589-8594.
The Committee for the Prize in Economic Sciences in Memory of Alfred Nobel(2018),“Economic growth,technological change,and climate change”,https://www.nobelprize.org.
Dell,M.et al(2014),“What do we learn from the weather?The new climate–economy literature”,Journal of Economic Literature 52(3):740-798.
Donaldson,D.(2018),“Railroads of the Raj:Estimating the impact of transportation infrastructure”,American Economic Review108(4-5):899-934.
Donaldson,D.&R.Hornbeck(2016),“Railroads and American economic growth:A ‘market access’approach”,Quarterly Journal of Economics 131(2):799-858.
Donaldson,D.&A.Storeygard(2016),“The view from above:Applications of satellite data in economics”,Journal of Economic Perspectives 30(4):171-198.
Fisher,P.F.&M.Langford(1995),“Modelling the errors in areal interpolation between zonal systems by Monte Carlo simulation”,Environment and Palanning A27(2):211-224.
Flowerdew,R.&M.Green(1989),“Statistical metods for inference between incompatible zonal systems”,in:M.Goodchild &S.Gopal(eds),The Accuracy of Spatial Databases,Taylor and Francis.
Fotheringham,A.S.et al(2000),Quantitative Geography:Perspectives on Spatial Data Analysis,Sage.
Gotway,C.A.&L.J.Young(2002),“Combining incompatible spatial data”,Journal of the American Statistical Association 97(458):632-648.
Krugman,P.(1991),“Increasing returns and economic geography”,Journal of Political Economy99(1):483-499.
Mendelsohn,R.,W.D.Nordhaus &D.Shaw(1994),“The impact of global warming on agriculture:A Ricardian analysis”,American Economic Review84(4):753-771.
Miller,J.R.(1998),“Spatial aggregation and regional economic forecasting”,Annals of Regional Science 32(2):253-266.
Nordhaus,W.D.(1994),Managing the Global Commons:The Economics of Climate Change,MIT Press.
Nordhaus,W.D.(2002),“Alterative approaches to spatial rescaling”,Yale University,Working Paper(Version 2.2.2).
Nordhaus,W.D.(2006),“Geography and macroeconomics:New data and new findings”,Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America 103(10):3510-3517.
Nordhaus,W.D.(2008),“New metrics for environmental economics:Gridded economic data”,Integrated Assessment Journal Bridging Sciences &Policy8(1):73-84.
Nordhaus,W.D.(2010),“Economic aspects of global warming in a post-Copenhagen environment”,Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America 107(26):11721-11726.
Nordhaus,W.D.(2015),“Climate clubs:Overcoming free-riding in international climate policy”,American Economic Review105(4):1339-1370.
Nordhaus,W.D.(2018),“Evolution of modeling of the economics of global warming:Changes in the DICE model,1992-2017”,NBER Working Paper,No.23319.
Nordhaus W.D.&J.Boyer(2000),Warming the World:Economic Models of Global Warming,MIT Press.
Nordhaus,W.D.&X.Chen(2009),“Geography:Graphics and economics”,B.E.Journal of Economic Analysis &Policy9(2):1-14.
Nordhaus,W.D.&X.Chen(2015),“A sharper image?Estimates of the precision of nighttime lights as a proxy for economic statistics”,Journal of Economic Geography15(1):217-246.
Nordhaus,W.D.&Z.Yang(1996),“A regional dynamic general-equilibrium model of alternative climate-change strategies”,American Economic Review86(4):741-765.
Nordhaus,W.D.et al(2006),“The G-Econ database on gridded output:Methods and data”,Yale University,http://gecon.yale.edu.
Nuzzo,R.(2006),“Profile of William D.Nordhaus”,Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America 103(26):9753-9755.
Overman,H.(2010),“‘GIS a job’:What use geographical information systems in spatial economics?”,Journal of Regional Science 50(1):165-180.
Quah,D.(2011),“The global economys shifting centre of gravity”,Global Policy2(1):3-7.
Redding,S.J.&E.Rossi-Hansberg(2017),“Quantitative spatial economics”,Annual Review of Economics 9(1):21-58.
Tobler,W.(1979),“Smooth pycnopylactic interpolation for geographical regions”,Journal of the American Statistical Association 74(367):519-530.
Tobler,W.(2002),“Global spatial analysis”,Computers,Environment and Urban Systems 26:493-500.
Tobler,W.et al(1995),The Global Demography Project Technical Report 1995-6.National Center for Geographic Information and Analysis,Santa Barbara,CA.
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