基于生产函数理论的碳排放量模型及应用

详细信息    查看全文 | 推荐本文 |

英文篇名：Carbon emission deduction model and application base on production function theory 作者：吴剑 ; 许嘉钰 英文作者：WU Jian;XU Jiayu;School of Environment, Tsinghua University; 关键词：碳排放量 ; 生产函数 ; 人口 ; GDP ; 城市化率 英文关键词：carbon dioxide emission;;production function;;population;;GDP;;urban rate 中文刊名：JSLG 英文刊名：Journal of Jiangsu University(Natural Science Edition) 机构：清华大学环境学院; 出版日期：2019-05-10 出版单位：江苏大学学报(自然科学版) 年：2019 期：v.40;No.206 基金：国家重点研发计划项目(2017YFC0213005);; 中国工程院重大咨询项目(2016-ZD-07-01,2017-ZD-09-02-01) 语种：中文; 页：JSLG201903012 页数：5 CN：03 ISSN：32-1668/N 分类号：77-81

摘要

为了准确预测经济社会发展及能源消费的二氧化碳排放量(简称碳排放量),提出了基于生产函数理论的碳排放量模型.首先,以生产函数为理论基础,结合碳排放量与经济社会发展及能源消费相关的事实,构建了碳排放通用模型;利用经典的碳排放模型,验证了通用模型模型的合理性.其次,根据我国可能出现的发展情况,以人口、GDP、城市化率、能源强度、能源结构和产业结构等作为驱动因素,推导出适合我国的碳排放系列模型.最后,将国家统计局历史数据和外推法驱动因素数据带入碳排放预测模型中,实现对我国碳排放量预测.结果表明:新碳排放量模型更加符合实际情况;人口、GDP和城市化率是碳排放的主导驱动因素;用新模型预测得出我国碳排放在2027年左右达到峰值,经济社会发展将在2030年前实现脱碳.
        The carbon dioxide emission model was proposed based on the production function theory to exactly predict the carbon dioxide emissions about the economic and social development with energy consumption. The common carbon dioxide emission model was developed based on the production function theory and the real relation about the economic and social development with energy consumption. The classic carbon emission deduction models were used to verify the common model. A series of Chinese carbon dioxide models were deduced with driving factors of population, gross domestic product(GDP), urbanization rate, energy intensity, energy structure and industrial mix under the different hypothesizes. The future carbon dioxide emission was estimated with Chinese National Bureau of Statistics historical and extrapolation prediction driving factor data. The results show that the new carbon dioxide model is more coincident with the actual situation, and the population, GDP and urbanization rate are determinative factors. According to the new model, the prediction show that Chinese carbon dioxide emission peak will be before or after 2027, and the economic and social development will be decarbonization by 2030.

引文

[1] LIMA F,NUNES M L,CUNHA J,et al.A cross-country assessment of energy-related CO2 emissions:an extended Kaya index decomposition approach[J].Energy,2016,115:1361-1374.
    [2] ANG B W.LMDI decomposition approach:a guide for implementation[J].Energy Policy,2015,86:233-238.
    [3] WATTENBACH M,REDWEIK R,LüDTKE S,et al.Uncertainties in city greenhouse gas inventories[J].Energy Procedia,2015,76:388-397.
    [4] FREIRE-GONZáLEZ J.Environmental taxation and the double dividend hypothesis in CGE modelling literature:a critical review[J].Journal of Policy Modeling,2018,40(1):194-223.
    [5] MAGEE C L,DEVEZAS T C.Specifying technology and rebound in the IPAT identity[J].Procedia Manufacturing,2018,21:476-485.
    [6] YORK R,ROSA E A,DIETZ T.STIRPAT,IPAT and ImPACT:analytic tools for unpacking the driving forces of environmental impacts[J].Ecological Economics,2003,46:351-365.
    [7] SHAHBAZ M,LOGANATHAN N,MUZAFFAR A T,et al.How urbanization affects CO2 emissions in Malaysia?The application of STIRPAT model[J].Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews,2016,57:83-93.
    [8] LI W,AN C L,LU C.The assessment framework of provincial carbon emission driving factors:an empirical analysis of Hebei Province[J].Science of the Total Environment,2018,637/638:91-103.
    [9] YU S W,ZHENG S H,LI X.The achievement of the carbon emissions peak in China:the role of energy consumption structure optimization[J].Energy Economics,2018,74:693-707.
    [10] JIANG K J,ZHUANG X,HE C M,et al.China's low-carbon investment pathway under the 2 ℃ scenario[J].Advances in Climate Change Research,2016,7(4):229-234.