基于UGF-GO法的EWIS退化系统可靠性分析
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摘要
针对飞机电气线路互联系统(EWIS)差异性大、随时间退化严重、可靠性建模困难等问题,将通用生成函数(UGF)和GO法融合,提出了基于UGF-GO法的EWIS退化可靠性分析方法。首先,考虑EWIS各连接部件使用性能及环境的差异性,利用含随机参数的Wiener退化过程模型建立部件可靠性仿真模型,采用马尔可夫链蒙特卡罗(MCMC)算法对模型中的未知参数进行估计,并与传统二步法参数估计值进行对比,得到较为精确的系统部件退化可靠性曲线。其次,在分析系统退化可靠性时,利用UGF-GO法对某飞机EWIS结构可靠性进行建模及计算。最后,以某飞机电气线路互联系统为例,结合部件退化可靠性计算结果,评估系统在不同给定阈值下可靠性水平。结果表明:UGF-GO法可有效解决系统退化状态的可靠性分析问题。
In view of several problems of electrical wiring interconnection system( EWIS),such as condition difference,ageing phenomenon and modelling difficulty,a UGF-GO methodology based EWIS degradation reliability analysis method is proposed by combining traditional GO methodology and universal generating function( UGF). In this paper,based on the difference of performance and environment of system components,using Wiener degradation process model with random parameters,the component reliability simulation model has been built. Markov chain Monte Carlo( MCMC) algorithm is used to estimate parameters in the model. The simulation test show that MCMC algorithm improves the estimation accuracy compared to the parameter estimation values of traditional two-step method. In analyzing the reliability of a degenerate system,the UGF-GO methodology works for calculating the EWIS reliability. Finally,the EWIS of an aircraft is taken as an example,and combined with the reliability calculation result of components,the reliability level of EWIS is evaluated under different thresholds. The results show that UGF-GO methodology can effectively solve the reliability analysis problem of the deteriorating system.
In view of several problems of electrical wiring interconnection system( EWIS),such as condition difference,ageing phenomenon and modelling difficulty,a UGF-GO methodology based EWIS degradation reliability analysis method is proposed by combining traditional GO methodology and universal generating function( UGF). In this paper,based on the difference of performance and environment of system components,using Wiener degradation process model with random parameters,the component reliability simulation model has been built. Markov chain Monte Carlo( MCMC) algorithm is used to estimate parameters in the model. The simulation test show that MCMC algorithm improves the estimation accuracy compared to the parameter estimation values of traditional two-step method. In analyzing the reliability of a degenerate system,the UGF-GO methodology works for calculating the EWIS reliability. Finally,the EWIS of an aircraft is taken as an example,and combined with the reliability calculation result of components,the reliability level of EWIS is evaluated under different thresholds. The results show that UGF-GO methodology can effectively solve the reliability analysis problem of the deteriorating system.
引文
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[2]MEEKER W Q,HAMADA M.Statistical tools for the rapid development and evaluation of high-reliability products[J].IEEETransactions on Reliability,1995,44(2):187-198.
[3]LEVITEN G.The universal generating function in reliability analysis and optimization[M].Berlin:Springer,2005.
[4]LI W J,PHAM H.Reliability modeling of multi-state degraded systems with multi-competing failures and random shocks[J].IEEE Transactions on Reliability,2005,54(2):297-303.
[5]WANG G,DUAN F,ZHOU Y.Reliability evaluation of multistate series systems with performance sharing[J].Reliability Engineering&System Safety,2018,173:58-63.
[6]LI J,COIT D W,ELSAYED E A.Reliability modeling of a series system with correlated or dependent component degradation processes[C]∥International Conference on Quality,Reliability,Risk,Maintenance,and Safety Engineering.Piscataway,NJ:IEEE Press,2011:388-393.
[7]FAGHIH-ROOHI S F,MIN X,KIEN M G,et al.Dynamic availability assessment and optimal component design of multi-state weighted k-out-of-n systems[J].Reliability Engineering&System Safety,2014,123:57-62.
[8]LI X,JIANG T M,MA J,et al.State tree analysis of FOG based on drift brownian motion[C]∥International Conference on Reliability,Maintainability and Safety.Piscataway,NJ:IEEEPress,2009:1322-1326.
[9]彭宝华,周经伦,刘学敏.元器件性能退化信息的系统性能可靠性评估[J].火力与指挥控制,2011,36(10):148-151.PENG B H,ZHOU J L,LIU X M.System performance reliability assessment based on degradation data from components[J].Fire Control&Command Control,2011,36(10):148-151(in Chinese).
[10]NIKULIN M S,LIMNIOS N,BALARISHNAN N,et al.Advances in degradation modeling[M].Boston:Birkhuser Boston,2010.
[11]沈祖培,黄祥瑞.GO法原理及应用:一种系统可靠性分析方法[M].北京:清华大学出版社,2004.SHEN Z P,HUANG X R.Principle and application of GOmethodology:A system reliability analysis methodology[M].Beijing:Tsinghua University Press,2004(in Chinese).
[12]YE Z S,XIE M.Stochastic modelling and analysis of degradation for highly reliable products[J].Applied Stochastic Models in Business&Industry,2015,31(1):16-32.
[13]SHERIF Y.S,SMITH M L.First-passage time distribution of brownian motion as a reliability model[J].IEEE Transactions on Reliability,2009,R-29(5):425-426.
[14]HAO H B,LI C P.Reliability assessment and residual life prediction method based on Wiener process and current degradation quantity[J].Engineering Letters,2016,24(2):172-177.
[15]LI C P,HAO H B.Degradation data analysis using Wiener process and MCMC approach[J].Engineering Letters,2017,25(3):234-238.
[16]FAN T H,CHEN C H.A Bayesian predictive analysis of stepstress accelerated tests in gamma degradation-based processes[J].Quality&Reliability Engineering International,2017,33(7):1417-1424.
[17]JAIN V.Computational statistics handbook with MATLAB[J].Journal of the Royal Statistial Society:Series A(Statistics in Society),2009,172(4):942-943.
[18]沈祖培,高佳.GO法原理和改进的定量分析方法[J].清华大学学报,1999,39(6):15-19.SHEN Z P,GAO J.GO methodology and improved quantification of system reliability[J].Journal of Tsinghua University,1999,39(6):15-19(in Chinese).
[19]REN Y,FAN D,WANG Z,et al.System dynamic behavior modelling based on extended GO methodology[J].IEEE Access,2018,6:22513-22523.
[20]LENVITIN G.A universal generating function approach for the analysis of multi-state systems with dependent elements[J].Reliability Engineering&System Safety,2004,84(3):285-292.
[21]JOSEPHLU C J,MEEKER W Q.Using degradation measures to estimate a time-to-failure distribution[J].Technometrics,1993,35(2):161-174.
[22]朱新宇,王有隆,胡焱.民航飞机电气仪表及通信系统[M].成都:西南交通大学出版社,2006.ZHU X Y,WANG Y L,HU Y.Electrical instrument and communications systems in civil aircraft[M].Chengdu:Southwest Jiaotong University Press,2006(in Chinese).
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