基于叠加-触发原理的铁路危险品运输系统风险场形成机理研究
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摘要
引入风险场理论研究铁路危险品运输系统风险形成机理,基于系统风险因素识别,建立铁路危险品运输系统风险势函数及对应的风险场强模型,采用触发器原理分析了风险场叠加后的风险形成机理。研究结果表明:内部风险场承受体风险势和风险场强均为代数加和叠加;外部风险场分为单一和多风险源2类,风险势均表现为代数加和叠加,风险场强叠加均满足平行四边形法则。风险状态的变化直接作用于内、外风险场承受体,内部风险场承受体全部或部分崩溃,将导致铁路危险品运输系统失效,其释放的风险场能量将会对外部风险场承受体系统进行攻击,导致外部风险场承受体的部分或整体失效,进而产生风险级联效应。
The risk field theory was introduced to study the formation mechanism of risk in the railway dangerous goods transportation system. Based on the identification of system risk factors,the risk potential function and the corresponding risk field strength model of railway dangerous goods transportation system were established,and the formation mechanism of risk after the superposition of risk field was analyzed by using the trigger principle. The results showed that the risk potential and risk field strength of the acceptor of internal risk field were the algebraic sum and superposition. The external risk field could be divided into type types of single risk source and multiple risk sources,and both the risk potential presented as the algebraic sum and superposition,while both the risk field strength superposition satisfied the parallelogram rule. The change of risk state directly affected the acceptor of internal and external risk field. The total or partial collapse of the acceptor of internal risk field would lead to the failure of railway dangerous goods transportation system,then the released risk field energy would attack the acceptor system of external risk field,which would lead to the partial or overall failure of the acceptor of external risk field,thus produce the cascade effect of risk.
The risk field theory was introduced to study the formation mechanism of risk in the railway dangerous goods transportation system. Based on the identification of system risk factors,the risk potential function and the corresponding risk field strength model of railway dangerous goods transportation system were established,and the formation mechanism of risk after the superposition of risk field was analyzed by using the trigger principle. The results showed that the risk potential and risk field strength of the acceptor of internal risk field were the algebraic sum and superposition. The external risk field could be divided into type types of single risk source and multiple risk sources,and both the risk potential presented as the algebraic sum and superposition,while both the risk field strength superposition satisfied the parallelogram rule. The change of risk state directly affected the acceptor of internal and external risk field. The total or partial collapse of the acceptor of internal risk field would lead to the failure of railway dangerous goods transportation system,then the released risk field energy would attack the acceptor system of external risk field,which would lead to the partial or overall failure of the acceptor of external risk field,thus produce the cascade effect of risk.
引文
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[3]张津嘉,许开立,王贝贝,等.瓦斯爆炸事故风险耦合演化机理研究[J].中国安全科学学报,2016,26(3):81-85.ZHANG Jinjia,XU Kaili,WANG Beibei,et al.Research on evolution mechanism of risk coupling for gas explosion accident[J].China Safety Science Journal,2016,26(3):81-85.
[4]林嘉豪,李克武,张兵.基于风险耦合理论的航空装备本质安全管理研究[J].中国安全生产科学技术,2011,7(9):75-79.LIN Jiahao,LI Kewu,ZHANG Bing.Inherent safety management of aviation equipment based on risk coupling theory[J].Journal of Safety Science and Technology,2011,7(9):75-79.
[5]王钰,邵辉.城市中化工灾场风险强度模型研究[J].江苏工业学院学报,2008,20(3):27-30.WANG Yu,SHAO Hui.Study of chemical disaster field hazard intensity model in city[J].Journal of Jiangsu Polytechnic University,2008,20(3):27-30.
[6]亢永,吕鹏飞,庞磊.城市燃气管道泄漏爆炸事故三维风险数值模拟[J].安全与环境学报,2016,16(4):112-115.KANG Yong,LYU Pengfei,PANG Lei.On a 3-D risk numerical simulation for the leakage explosion accident of the urban gas pipeline[J].Journal of Safety and Environment,2016,16(4):112-115.
[7]亢永,吕鹏飞,庞磊.城市燃气管道泄漏事故风险场强度评价研究[J].安全与环境工程,2016,23(6):166-169.KANG Yong,LYU Pengfei,PANG Lei.Evaluation of risk field intensity for leakage accidents of urban gas pipelines[J].Safety and Environment Engineering,2016,23(6):166-169.
[8]黄沿波,李剑峰,张斌,等.基于风险场的评价理论研究[J].中国安全生产科学技术,2008,4(6):101-105.HUANG Yanbo,LI Jianfeng,ZHANG Bin,et al.The research of assessment theory based on risk field theory models[J].Journal of Safety Science and Technology,2008,4(6):101-105.
[9]黄沿波,梁栋,康雅乔,等.风险的三维评价方法[J].自然灾害学报,2010,19(3):88-93.HUAGN Yanbo,LIANG Dong,KANG Yaqiao,et al.Three dimensional assessment method for risk[J].Journal of Natural Disasters,2010,19(3):88-93.
[10]王妤甜,庄稼捷.城市三维风险场的数学描述[J].科技创新导报,2009(10):222-223,227.WANG Yutian,ZHUANG Jiajie.Mathematical description of urban 3D risk field[J].Science and Technology Innovation Herald,2009(10):222-223,227.
[11]李剑峰.三维风险场的数学表达及叠加方法:第二届中国科学院博士后学术年会暨高新技术前沿与发展学术会议程序册[C]//中国科学院博士后联谊会,2010.
[12]王喆,蔡梦贤.铁路危险货物运输区域环境风险评估[J].安全与环境工程,2011,18(4):52-56,63.WANG Zhe,CAI Mengxian.Region environmental risk assessment of railway dangerous goods transportation[J].Safety and Environmental Engineering,2011,18(4):52-56,63.
[13]WANG C,WANG J.A Modified floor field model combined with risk field for pedestrian simulation[J].Mathematical Problems in Engineering,2016(1):1-10.
[14]WANG Y P,WEIDMANN U A,WANG H S.Using catastrophe theory to describe railway system safety and discuss system risk concept[J].Safety Science,2017,91:269-285.
[15]王建强,吴剑,李洋.基于人-车-路协同的行车风险场概念、原理及建模[J].中国公路学报,2016,29(1):105-114.WANG Jianqiang,WU Jian,LI Yang.Concept,principle and modeling of driving risk filed based on driver-vehicle-road interaction[J].China Journal of Highway and Transport,2016,29(1):105-114.
[16]王建强.行车风险场概念、原理及建模:第九届中国智能交通年会大会论文集[C]//中国智能交通协会,2014.
[17]中国铁道企业管理协会运输委员会.铁路危险货物运输事故案例[M].北京:中国铁道出版社,2009.
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