四川青川县区域地质灾害气象风险预警模型研究
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摘要
降雨是诱发地质灾害的重要因素之一,中国大陆于2003年启动的区域地质灾害气象预警取得了较好成效,目前区域地质灾害气象预警业务逐步从地质灾害发生的"危险性"预警向"风险性"预警转变,开展区域地质灾害气象风险预警模型研究具有重要意义。本文总结提出了区域地质灾害气象风险预警概化模型及其计算方法,以四川省青川县为例,构建了青川县区域地质灾害气象风险预警模型,并以典型实例进行了预警效果校验。(1)区域地质灾害风险预警指数(R)可以概化为地质灾害潜势度(Q)、降雨诱发因子(T)和地质灾害承灾体脆弱性指标(V)三者的乘积,并分别给出了三者的计算公式。(2)构建了青川县区域地质灾害气象风险预警模型,给出了根据预警指数值划分区域地质灾害气象风险预警等级的依据,提出当Q、T、V中两项达到高等级(0. 8),一项达到较高等级(0. 6)时,为红色预警;当Q、T、V中两项达到较高等级(0. 6),一项达到中等级(0. 3)时,为橙色预警;当Q、T、V中一项达到较高等级(0. 6),两项达到中等级(0. 3)时,为黄色预警。(3)以2018年6月26日为典型实例,模拟了四川青川县区域地质灾害气象风险预警实况并进行校验,结果显示94. 1%的灾害点位于预警区范围内。
Rainfall is one of the important factors that induce geo-hazards. The early warning of regional geo-hazards based on the meteorological factor started in 2003,had achieved good results. The current early warning of regional geo-hazards are step by step from the "danger warning"to "risk warning". Early-warning model study of regional geo-hazards risk based on the meteorological factor is of great significance. This paper put forward the general model of early warning for regional geo-hazards risk based on the meteorological factor,and took a case study of Qingchuan County,Sichuan Province. Finally,the effect of the early warning was verified with a typical example.( 1) The regional geo-hazards risk warning index( R) could be generalized as the product of geo-hazards potentiality parameter( Q),rainfall trigger factor( T) and vulnerability index( V). The calculation formulas of the three index( Q,T,V) were given respectively.( 2) The early warning model of regional geo-hazards risk based on meteorological factor was established in Qingchuan County. According to the early warning index of regional geo-hazards,the principle dividing warning level was given. When two items of Q,T and V reached a high level( 0. 8)and one item reached a relative high level( 0. 6),it was a red alert; When two items of Q,T and V reached a relative high level( 0. 6) and one item reached a middle level( 0. 3),it was a orange alert; When one item of Q,T and V reached a relatively high level( 0. 6),and two items reached a middle level( 0. 3),it was a yellow alert.( 3)Taking 26 June,2018 as a typical example,the early warning of regional geo-hazards risk based on meteorological factor was simulated. With the actual geo-hazards,the warning effect was verified. The results showed that 94. 1%of the geo-hazards were located in the warning area.
Rainfall is one of the important factors that induce geo-hazards. The early warning of regional geo-hazards based on the meteorological factor started in 2003,had achieved good results. The current early warning of regional geo-hazards are step by step from the "danger warning"to "risk warning". Early-warning model study of regional geo-hazards risk based on the meteorological factor is of great significance. This paper put forward the general model of early warning for regional geo-hazards risk based on the meteorological factor,and took a case study of Qingchuan County,Sichuan Province. Finally,the effect of the early warning was verified with a typical example.( 1) The regional geo-hazards risk warning index( R) could be generalized as the product of geo-hazards potentiality parameter( Q),rainfall trigger factor( T) and vulnerability index( V). The calculation formulas of the three index( Q,T,V) were given respectively.( 2) The early warning model of regional geo-hazards risk based on meteorological factor was established in Qingchuan County. According to the early warning index of regional geo-hazards,the principle dividing warning level was given. When two items of Q,T and V reached a high level( 0. 8)and one item reached a relative high level( 0. 6),it was a red alert; When two items of Q,T and V reached a relative high level( 0. 6) and one item reached a middle level( 0. 3),it was a orange alert; When one item of Q,T and V reached a relatively high level( 0. 6),and two items reached a middle level( 0. 3),it was a yellow alert.( 3)Taking 26 June,2018 as a typical example,the early warning of regional geo-hazards risk based on meteorological factor was simulated. With the actual geo-hazards,the warning effect was verified. The results showed that 94. 1%of the geo-hazards were located in the warning area.
引文
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Wang Y Q,Yang Y D,Zhou C Q,et al.2015.Meteorological early warning of geo-hazards system in Yunnan province based on GISspatial analysis[J].The Chinese Journal of Geological Hazard and Control,26(1):134-144.
Wei P X,Li X J.2015.The meteorologic early warning research of sudden geo-hazard in Guangdong province[J].The Chinese Journal of Geological Hazard and Control,26(1):138-144.
Wen M S,Liu Y H,Su Y C,et al.2016.Geo-hazards investigation report of Qingzhujiang River region,Sichuan[R].Beijing:China Institute of Geo-Environmental Monitoring.
Wen M S,Wang L J,Li T F,et al.2012.Meteorological early warning of geological hazards based on maximum potentiality parameter of village[J].Journal of Beijing Jiaotong University,36(4):110-114.
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刘传正,温铭生,刘艳辉,等.2017.汶川地震区地质灾害成生规律研究[M].北京:地质出版社.
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Au S W C.1998.Rain-induced slop instability in Hong Kong[J].Engineering Geology,51(1):1-36.
Cannon S H,Ellen S D.1985.Rainfall conditions for abundant debris avalanches,San Francisco Bay region,California[J].California Geology,38(12):267-272.
China Geological Disaster Prevention Engineering Association.2018.Oct,2018.Early Warning Standard of Geological Hazards Based on the Meteorological Factor(T/CA GHP 039-2018)[S].Beijing:China Geological Disaster Prevention Engineering Association.
Corominas J,van Westen C,Frattini P,et al.2014.Recommendations for the quantitative analysis of landslide risk[J].Bulletin of Engineering Geology and the Environment,73(2):209-263.
Dai F C,Lee C F,Ngai Y Y.2002.Landslide risk assessment and management:An overview[J].Engineering Geology,64(1):65-87.
Guo F Y,Song X L,Xie Y,et al.2015.A discussion on the geological hazards meteorological warning system in Gansu province[J].The Chinese Journal of Geological Hazard and Control,26(1):127-133.
Hou S S,Li A,Han B,et al.2014.An approach of geo-hazard warning system in Ya'an,Sichuan and its analysis[J].The Chinese Journal of Geological Hazard and Control,25(4):134-138.
Lan H X,Zhou C H,Wang L J,et al.2003.GIS based landslide stability and hydrological distribution coupled model[J].Chinese Journal of Rock Mechanics and Engineering,22(8):1309-1314.
Li C J,Ma S H,Zhu X S.2008.Forecasting of landslides trigged by rainfall:theory,method and application[M].Beijing:Geological Publishing.
Li F,Mei H B,Wang W S,et al.2017.Rainfall-induced meteorological early warning of geo-hazards model:application to the monitoring demonstration area in Honghe prefecture,Yunnan province[J].Earth Science,42(9):1637-1646.
Li S D,Bai Y H,Jiang Y,et al.2017.Explicit statistic meteorological early-warning model of geological hazards in xinjiang,China based on the genesis theory of endogenic and exogenic couping[J].Journal of Earth Sciences and Environment,39(2):286-300.
Li Y M,Di J Y,Xu F W,et al.2018.A risk warning method based on the intraday critical precipitation for national geological disaster[J].Advances in Meteorological Science and Technology,8(3):77-83.
Liu C Z,Li T F,Cheng L P,et al.2004.A method by to analyse four parameters for assessment and early warning on the regional geohazard[J].Hydrogeology and Engineering Geology,31(4):1-8.
Liu C Z,Liu Y H,Wen M S,et al.2006.Early warning for geo-hazards based on the weather condition in China[J].Global Geology,9(2):131-137.
Liu C Z,Liu Y H,Wen M S,et al.2009.Method and application of regional warning for geo-hazards in China[M].Beijing:Geological Publishing House.
Liu C Z,Wen M S,Liu Y H,et al.2017.Study of geo-hazards in Wenchuan earthquake zone[M].Beijing:Geological Publishing House.
Liu C Z,Liu Y H.2007.Early warning theory for regional geo-hazards and design of explicit statistical system[J].Hydrogeology&Engineering Geology,34(6):109-115,125.
Liu C Z,Liu Y H,Wen M S,et al.2015.Early warning for regional geohazards during 2003-2012,China[J].The Chinese Journal of Geological Hazard and Control,26(1):1-8.
Liu Y H,Liu C Z,Lian J F,et al.2008.Method of regional early warning of geohazards based on the explicit statistical theory[J].Geology in China,35(2):344-350.
Liu Y H,Liu C Z,Tang C,et al.2015.CF-based multi-factor overlay method to determine weights of the factors for geo-hazards[J].The Chinese Journal of Geological Hazard and Control,26(1):92-97.
Liu Y H,Liu C Z,Wen M S,et al.2015.Study of early warning models for regional geo-hazards in China[J].Journal of Engineering Geology,23(4):738-746.
Liu Y H,Zhang Z X,Su Y C.2018.Case study of vulnerability evaluation for geo-hazards bearing capacity of a region[J].Journal of Engineering Geology,26(5):1121-1130.
Liu Y X,He R Y,Zhang D,et al.2015.Short term meteorological early warning of geo-hazards in Guangdong province[J].Guangdong Meterology,37(5):68-71.
Liu Z H,Yu F H,Xia Y Z,et al.2015.Primary exploration of the geological hazard meteorological warning system based on slope unit[J].Hydrogeology and Engineering Geology,42(6):131-136.
Shi P J.2002.Theory on disaster science and disaster dynamics[J].Journal of Natural Disasters,11(3):1-9.
United Nations.1992.Department of Humanitarian Affairs.Internationally a greed glossary of basic terms related to disaster management[M].DNAP 93 P36,Geneva.
Wang Y L.2005.Study of the early warning and prediction of landslide hazards and countermeasures in the southern Shanxi province[J].Journal of Geological Hazards and Environment Preservation,16(4):345-349.
Wang Y Q,Yang Y D,Zhou C Q,et al.2015.Meteorological early warning of geo-hazards system in Yunnan province based on GISspatial analysis[J].The Chinese Journal of Geological Hazard and Control,26(1):134-144.
Wei P X,Li X J.2015.The meteorologic early warning research of sudden geo-hazard in Guangdong province[J].The Chinese Journal of Geological Hazard and Control,26(1):138-144.
Wen M S,Liu Y H,Su Y C,et al.2016.Geo-hazards investigation report of Qingzhujiang River region,Sichuan[R].Beijing:China Institute of Geo-Environmental Monitoring.
Wen M S,Wang L J,Li T F,et al.2012.Meteorological early warning of geological hazards based on maximum potentiality parameter of village[J].Journal of Beijing Jiaotong University,36(4):110-114.
郭富赟,宋晓玲,谢煜,等.2015.甘肃地质灾害气象预警技术方法探讨[J].中国地质灾害与防治学报,26(1):127-133.
侯圣山,李昂,韩冰,等.2014.四川雅安地质灾害预警预报及分析[J].中国地质灾害与防治学报,25(4):134-138.
兰恒星,周成虎,王苓娟,等.2003.地理信息系统支持下的滑坡-水文耦合模型研究[J].岩石力学与工程学报,22(8):1309-1314.
李芳,梅红波,王伟森,等.2017.降雨诱发的地质灾害气象风险预警模型:以云南省红河州监测示范区为例[J].地球科学,42(9):1637-1646.
李守定,白亚恒,姜越,等.2017.基于内外动力耦合成因理论的新疆地质灾害气象预警显式统计模型[J].地球科学与环境学报,39(2):286-300.
李宇梅,狄靖月,许凤雯,等.2018.基于当日临界雨量的国家级地质灾害风险预警方法[J].气象科技进展,8(3):77-83.
李长江,麻土华,朱兴盛.2008.降雨型滑坡预报的理论、方法及应用[M].北京:地质出版社.
刘传正,李铁锋,程凌鹏,等.2004.区域地质灾害评价预警的递进分析理论与方法[J].水文地质工程地质,31(4):1-8.
刘传正,刘艳辉,温铭生,等.2009.中国地质灾害区域预警方法与应用[M].北京:地质出版社.
刘传正,刘艳辉,温铭生,等.2015.中国地质灾害气象预警实践:2003-2012[J].中国地质灾害与防治学报,26(1):1-8.
刘传正,刘艳辉.2007.地质灾害区域预警原理与显式预警系统设计研究[J].水文地质工程地质,34(6):109-115,125.
刘传正,温铭生,刘艳辉,等.2017.汶川地震区地质灾害成生规律研究[M].北京:地质出版社.
刘艳辉,刘传正,连建发,等.2008.基于显式统计原理的地质灾害区域预警方法初步研究[J].中国地质,35(2):344-350.
刘艳辉,刘传正,唐灿,等.2015a.基于确定性系数模型的地质灾害多因子权重计算方法[J].中国地质灾害与防治学报,26(1):92-97.
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