城市综合灾害风险等级组合评价的SD模型

详细信息    查看全文 | 推荐本文 |

英文篇名：Urban comprehensive disaster risk level combination evaluation model based on support degree 作者：夏陈红 ; 王威 ; 马东辉 英文作者：XIA Chenhong;WANG Wei;MA Donghui;College of Architecture and Urban Planning,Beijing University of Technology;Institute of Earthquake Resistance and Disaster Reduction,Beijing University of Technology; 关键词：综合灾害风险 ; 组合评价法 ; 支持度(SD) ; 相似度 ; 差异度 英文关键词：comprehensive disaster risk;;combination evaluation method;;support degree(SD);;similarity;;different degree 中文刊名：ZAQK 英文刊名：China Safety Science Journal 机构：北京工业大学建筑与城市规划学院;北京工业大学抗震减灾研究所; 出版日期：2019-04-15 出版单位：中国安全科学学报 年：2019 期：v.29 基金：国家自然科学基金资助(51678017);; 国家重点研发计划课题(2018YFD1100902-1) 语种：中文; 页：ZAQK201904030 页数：7 CN：04 ISSN：11-2865/X 分类号：168-174

摘要

为更加系统地识别城市综合灾害风险,解决不同单一方法评价结果存在非一致性的问题,提出基于支持度(SD)概念的组合评价方法。以灾害危险性、经济社会易损性和城市设防为准则构建综合灾害风险评价指标体系,运用6种单一方法进行基础评价得出单一评价结果;运用向量夹角余弦和Euclidean距离分别计算不同方法评价结果的相似度矩阵和差异度矩阵,构建融合相似度和差异度的SD组合评价模型,并评价中国大陆31个省、直辖市和自治区的综合灾害风险。结果表明:SD模型能克服不同单一评价结果非一致性的问题,体现横向求同、纵向求异的组合新思想,使城市综合风险评价结果更加客观、合理,为深度识别城市综合灾害风险水平提供理论和实践依据。
        In order to identify urban comprehensive disaster risks more systematically and solve the problem of inconsistent evaluation results of different single methods,a combined evaluation method based on the concept of SD was proposed. Firstly,a comprehensive disaster risk evaluation index system was established based on the criteria of disaster risk,economic and social vulnerability and urban fortification,and six single methods were used for basic evaluation to obtain a single evaluation result. Then,the similarity matrix and the difference matrix of the evaluation results of different methods were calculated by vector included angle cosine and Euclidean distance respectively,and an SD combination evaluation model integrating similarity and difference was constructed to evaluate 31 provinces, municipalities and autonomous regions in mainland China. The results show that SD model can well overcome the inconsistency of different single evaluation results and embody the new combination idea of " seeking common ground horizontally and seeking differences vertically",which makes the comprehensive urban risk evaluation results more objective and reasonable and provides theoretical and practical basis for indepth identification of the comprehensive urban disaster risk level.

引文

[1]姜珊珊,杨杰,刘茂,等.基于风险分析的城市防灾减灾规划编制:以地震规划为例[J].中国安全科学学报,2012,22(11):163-169.JIANG Shanshan,YANG Jie,LIU Mao.Urban disaster prevention admitigation plan-making based on risk analysis:a seismic case[J].China Safety Science Journal,2012,22(11):163-169.
    [2]周荣义,龚日朝.我国城市灾害风险应对现状及对策研究[J].中国安全科学学报,2009,19(11):139-145.ZHOU Rongyi,GONG Rizhao.The deficiencies in urban disaster risk control in China and its counterm easures[J].China Safety Science Journal,2009,19(11):139-145.
    [3]United Nations Development Programme.A global report reducing disaster disk:a challenge for development[R],2004.
    [4]International Council of Scientific Unions.A science plan for integrated research on disaster risk:addressing the challenge of natural and human-induced environmental hazards[R],2008.
    [5]World Bank.Natural disaster hotspots:a global risk analysis[R],2005.
    [6]高娇娇,王威,苏经宇,等.区域自然灾害综合风险模糊随机评价方法[J].中国安全生产科学技术,2014,10(5):103-109.GAO Jiaojiao,WANG Wei,SU Jingyu,et al.Fuzzy stochastic simulation method for comprehensive risk assessment of regional natural disaster[J].Journal of Safety Science and Technology,2014,10(5):103-109.
    [7]王文圣,金菊良,李跃清.基于集对分析的自然灾害风险度综合评价研究[J].四川大学学报:工程科学版,2009,41(6):6-12.WANG Wensheng,JIN Juliang,LI Yueqing.Risk degree assessment of natural disaster based on set pair analysis method[J].Journal of Sichuan University:Engineering Science Edition,2009,41(6):6-12.
    [8]王威,苏经宇,马东辉,等.复杂灾害系统风险综合评价的非线性信息动力学模型[J].中国科学:技术科学,2013,43(1):71-78.WANG Wei,SU Jingyu,MA Donghui,et al.Intergrated risk assessmen of complex disaster system based on a non-liner information dynamic model[J].China Science:Technical Science,2013,43(1):71-78.
    [9]李红.基于改进后灰靶模型的中国自然灾害风险评价[J].西华师范大学学报:自然科学版,2013,34(3):284-289.LI Hong.The assessment of natural disaster risk in china based on improved grey target model[J].Journal of China West Normal University:Natural Sciences,2013,34(3):284-289.
    [10]陈鹏宇,余宏明,谢凯,等.基于支持度的隧道围岩质量分级组合评价方法[J].岩土工程学报,2013,35(12):2 233-2 237.CHEN Pengyu,YU Hongming,XIE Kai,et al.Combination evaluation method for classification of surrounding rock quality of tunnels based on support degree[J].Chinese Journal of Geotechnical Engineering,2013,35(12):2 233-2 237.