山西省贸易隐含碳排放的空间-产业转移及其影响因素研究——基于MRIO-SDA跨期方法
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摘要
国家减排目标的实现亟需省级地方政府加以分解落实。然而,省际间日益频繁的贸易活动使得各省区的消费碳排放与生产碳排放出现严重背离,可能影响各省区碳减排战略措施的制定与实施。本文选取典型的能源驱动型省份山西省为例,基于多区域投入产出模型,测算了2002-2012年山西省与国内其他省市间贸易隐含的碳排放;在此基础上,采用结构分解分析方法识别了影响山西省贸易隐含碳排放转移的因素。结果表明:2002-2012年,山西省贸易隐含碳排放转移规模不断扩大,且为贸易隐含碳排放的"净调出"省份;山西省贸易隐含碳排放的空间分布呈现出由集聚式向扩散式发展的趋势;各影响因素对山西省贸易隐含碳排放转移的作用程度存在显著差异,其中,产业部门碳排放强度效应对碳排放转移的减少发挥着至关重要的作用,需求规模效应显著地增加了碳排放转移,其他因素则既可减少也会促进碳排放转移。基于研究结果,本文从建立健全省际产业转移协调机制、继续推动产业转型升级、鼓励省市间低碳产品贸易等方面提出山西省绿色低碳转型的政策建议。
Provincial governments play an important role in decomposing and implementing national carbon reduction targets. However, the carbon emissions embodied in inter-provincial trade lead to large differences between the consumption-based and production-based carbon emissions of each province, which seriously affect the policy making of carbon emission reductions in various provinces. In this paper, Shanxi Province is selected as a typical energy resource-driven province, where a multi-regional input-output model is developed to calculate the transfer of carbon emissions embodied in inter-provincial trade between Shanxi Province and other Chinese provinces in 2002,2007 and 2012. Structural decomposition analysis method is employed to identify the contributing factors affecting the carbon emissions embodied in inter-provincial trade of Shanxi Province. The results show that from 2002 to 2012, the transfer of carbon emissions embodied in inter-provincial trade of Shanxi Province grows continuously,and it is as a whole has been a "net exporter" in inter-provincial trade. The geographical distribution of the carbon emissions embodied in trade in Shanxi Province shows a trend from agglomeration to diffusion. Various influencing factors on the transfer of carbon emissions embodied in inter-provincial trade of Shanxi Province present significant differences. Among them, the contributions of the carbon intensity of industrial sectors with respect to the reduction of carbon emissions transfer plays a crucial role, demand scale significantly increases the carbon transfer and other factors can reduce or promote carbon emissions. Based on the research results, this paper puts forward policy suggestions on green and low-carbon transformation of Shanxi Province from the aspects of establishing and perfecting coordination mechanism of inter-provincial industrial transfer, continuing to promote industrial transformation and upgrading, and encouraging inter-provincial trade of low-carbon products.
Provincial governments play an important role in decomposing and implementing national carbon reduction targets. However, the carbon emissions embodied in inter-provincial trade lead to large differences between the consumption-based and production-based carbon emissions of each province, which seriously affect the policy making of carbon emission reductions in various provinces. In this paper, Shanxi Province is selected as a typical energy resource-driven province, where a multi-regional input-output model is developed to calculate the transfer of carbon emissions embodied in inter-provincial trade between Shanxi Province and other Chinese provinces in 2002,2007 and 2012. Structural decomposition analysis method is employed to identify the contributing factors affecting the carbon emissions embodied in inter-provincial trade of Shanxi Province. The results show that from 2002 to 2012, the transfer of carbon emissions embodied in inter-provincial trade of Shanxi Province grows continuously,and it is as a whole has been a "net exporter" in inter-provincial trade. The geographical distribution of the carbon emissions embodied in trade in Shanxi Province shows a trend from agglomeration to diffusion. Various influencing factors on the transfer of carbon emissions embodied in inter-provincial trade of Shanxi Province present significant differences. Among them, the contributions of the carbon intensity of industrial sectors with respect to the reduction of carbon emissions transfer plays a crucial role, demand scale significantly increases the carbon transfer and other factors can reduce or promote carbon emissions. Based on the research results, this paper puts forward policy suggestions on green and low-carbon transformation of Shanxi Province from the aspects of establishing and perfecting coordination mechanism of inter-provincial industrial transfer, continuing to promote industrial transformation and upgrading, and encouraging inter-provincial trade of low-carbon products.
引文
[1]杜运苏,张为付.中国出口贸易隐含碳排放增长及其驱动因素研究[J].国际贸易问题,2012,(3):97-107.
[2]何雄浪,张泽义.经济活动空间分布的探究:技术溢出、环境污染与贸易自由化[J].地理科学,2015,35(2):161-167.
[3]黄蕊,王铮,钟章奇,孙翊,刘昌新,陆玉麒.区域贸易隐含碳排放和SO2排放的投入产出分析--以江苏为例[J].自然资源学报,2017,32(5):854-863.
[4]黄蕊,钟章奇,孙翊,刘昌新,刘丽.区域分部门贸易的隐含碳排放--以北京为例[J].地理研究,2015,34(5):933-943.
[5]李珊珊,罗良文.FDI行业结构对中国对外贸易隐含碳排放的影响--基于指数因素分解的实证分析[J].资源科学,2012,34(5):855-863.
[6]李艳梅,付加锋.中国出口贸易中隐含碳排放增长的结构分解分析[J].中国人口·资源与环境,2010,20(8):53-57.
[7]刘红光,范晓梅.中国区域间隐含碳排放转移[J].生态学报,2014,34(11):3016-3024.
[8]刘巧玲,王奇.我国省际贸易隐含污染核算方法的比较研究[J].统计研究,2016,33(10):12-20.
[9]刘卫东,陈杰,唐志鹏,刘红光,韩丹,李方一.中国2007年30省区(市)区域间投入产出表编制理论与实践[M].北京:中国统计出版社,2012.
[10]路正南,李晓洁.基于区域间贸易矩阵的中国各省区碳排放转移研究[J].统计与决策,2015,(1):126-129.
[11]孟渤,格林·皮特斯,王直.追溯全球价值链里的中国二氧化碳排放[J].环境经济研究,2016,(1):10-25.
[12]潘安.全球价值链视角下的中美贸易隐含碳研究[J].统计研究,2018,35(1):53-64.
[13]潘元鸽,潘文卿,吴添.中国地区间贸易隐含CO2测算[J].统计研究,2013,30(9):21-28.
[14]庞军,张浚哲.中欧贸易隐含碳排放及其影响因素--基于MRIO模型和LMDI方法的分析[J].国际经贸探索,2014,11:51-65.
[15]彭水军,张文城,卫瑞.碳排放的国家责任核算方案[J].经济研究,2016,51(3):137-150.
[16]石敏俊,张卓颖.中国省区间投入产出模型与区际经济联系[M].北京:科学出版社,2012.55
[17]汤维祺,周夷,孙可哿.中国省际贸易隐含碳流向与地区经济发展模式研究[J].环境经济研究,2016,1(1):26-42.
[18]王文治.中国省域间碳排放的转移测度与责任分担[J].环境经济研究,2018,3(1):19-36.
[19]谢锐,王振国,张彬彬.中国碳排放增长驱动因素及其关键路径研究[J].中国管理科学,2017,(10):122-132.
[20]张琦峰,方恺,徐明,刘庆燕.基于投入产出分析的碳足迹研究进展[J].自然资源学报,2018,33(04):696-708.
[21]张友国.中国区域间碳排放转移:EEBT与MRIO方法的比较[J].重庆理工大学学报(社会科学),2016,30(7):17-27.
[22]张忠杰.中国多区域隐含碳贸易的核算和结构分解分析[J].统计与决策,2017,(13):125-129.
[23]郑林昌,齐蒙,付加锋,赵丹阳.河北省贸易隐含二氧化碳排放及其影响因素研究[J].气候变化研究进展,2017,13(2):157-164.
[24]钟章奇,吴乐英,陈志建,何凌云.区域碳排放转移的演变特征与结构分解及减排对策分析--以河南省为例[J].地理科学,2017,37(5):773-782.
[25]Arce,G.,L.A.López,and D.Guan.Carbon Emissions Embodied in International Trade:The Post-China Era[J].Applied Energy,2016,184:1063-1072.
[26]Caro,D.,F.M.Pulselli,S.Borghesi,and S.Bastianoni.Mapping the International Flows of GHG Emissions within a More Feasible Consumption-based Framework[J].Journal of Cleaner Production,2017,147:142-151.
[27]Chen,M.,S.Wu,Y.Lei,and S.Li.Study on Embodied CO2Transfer between the Jing-Jin-Ji Region and Other Regions in China:A Quantification Using an Interregional Input-output Model[J].Environmental Science&Pollution Research International,2018,25:14068-14082.
[28]Dolter,B.and P.A.Victor.Casting a Long Shadow:Demand-based Accounting of Canada’s Greenhouse Gas Emissions Responsibility[J].Ecological Economics,2016,127:156-164.
[29]Guo,J,Z.Zhang,and L.Meng.China’s Provincial CO2Emissions Embodied in International and Interprovincial Trade[J].Energy Policy,2012,42(3):486-497.
[30]Leontief,W.W.Quantitative Input and Output Relations in the Economic Systems of the United States[J].Review of Economics&Statistics,1936,18(3):105-125.
[31]Mi,Z.,J.Meng,D.Guan,Y.Shan,M.Song,Y.M.Wei,Z.Liu,and K.Hubacek.Chinese CO2Emission Flows Have Reversed since the Global Financial Crisis[J].Nature Communications,2017,8(1):1712.
[32]Peng,S.,W.Zhang,and C.Sun.‘Environmental Load Displacement’from the North to the South:A Consumption-based Perspective with a Focus on China[J].Ecological Economics,2016,128:147-158.
[33]Su,B.and B.W.Ang.Multi-regional Comparisons of Emission Performance:The Structural Decomposition Analysis Approach[J].Ecological Indicators,2016,(67):78-87.
[34]Tukker,A.,S.Giljum,and R.Wood.Recent Progress in Assessment of Resource Efficiency and Environmental Impacts Embodied in Trade:An Introduction to Tthis Special Issue[J].Journal of Industrial Ecology,2018,(3):1-13.
[35]Wiedmann,T.A.Review of Recent Multi-region Input-output Models Used for Consumption-based Emission and Resource Accounting[J].Ecological Economics,2009,69(2):211-222.
[36]Wiedmann,T.,R.Wood,J.C.Minx,M.Lenzen,D.Guan,and R.Harris.A Carbon Footprint Time Series of the UK-results from a Multi-region Input-output Model[J].Economic Systems Research,2010,22(1):19-42.
[37]Xu,Y.and E.Dietzenbacher.A Structural Decomposition Analysis of the Emissions Embodied in Trade[J].Ecological Economics,2014,101:10-20.
[38]Zhang,Z.,R.Huang,Q.Tang,X.Cong,and Z.Wang.China’s Provincial CO2Emissions Embodied in56Trade with Implications for Regional Climate Policy[J].Frontiers of Earth Science,2015,9(1):77-90.
[2]何雄浪,张泽义.经济活动空间分布的探究:技术溢出、环境污染与贸易自由化[J].地理科学,2015,35(2):161-167.
[3]黄蕊,王铮,钟章奇,孙翊,刘昌新,陆玉麒.区域贸易隐含碳排放和SO2排放的投入产出分析--以江苏为例[J].自然资源学报,2017,32(5):854-863.
[4]黄蕊,钟章奇,孙翊,刘昌新,刘丽.区域分部门贸易的隐含碳排放--以北京为例[J].地理研究,2015,34(5):933-943.
[5]李珊珊,罗良文.FDI行业结构对中国对外贸易隐含碳排放的影响--基于指数因素分解的实证分析[J].资源科学,2012,34(5):855-863.
[6]李艳梅,付加锋.中国出口贸易中隐含碳排放增长的结构分解分析[J].中国人口·资源与环境,2010,20(8):53-57.
[7]刘红光,范晓梅.中国区域间隐含碳排放转移[J].生态学报,2014,34(11):3016-3024.
[8]刘巧玲,王奇.我国省际贸易隐含污染核算方法的比较研究[J].统计研究,2016,33(10):12-20.
[9]刘卫东,陈杰,唐志鹏,刘红光,韩丹,李方一.中国2007年30省区(市)区域间投入产出表编制理论与实践[M].北京:中国统计出版社,2012.
[10]路正南,李晓洁.基于区域间贸易矩阵的中国各省区碳排放转移研究[J].统计与决策,2015,(1):126-129.
[11]孟渤,格林·皮特斯,王直.追溯全球价值链里的中国二氧化碳排放[J].环境经济研究,2016,(1):10-25.
[12]潘安.全球价值链视角下的中美贸易隐含碳研究[J].统计研究,2018,35(1):53-64.
[13]潘元鸽,潘文卿,吴添.中国地区间贸易隐含CO2测算[J].统计研究,2013,30(9):21-28.
[14]庞军,张浚哲.中欧贸易隐含碳排放及其影响因素--基于MRIO模型和LMDI方法的分析[J].国际经贸探索,2014,11:51-65.
[15]彭水军,张文城,卫瑞.碳排放的国家责任核算方案[J].经济研究,2016,51(3):137-150.
[16]石敏俊,张卓颖.中国省区间投入产出模型与区际经济联系[M].北京:科学出版社,2012.55
[17]汤维祺,周夷,孙可哿.中国省际贸易隐含碳流向与地区经济发展模式研究[J].环境经济研究,2016,1(1):26-42.
[18]王文治.中国省域间碳排放的转移测度与责任分担[J].环境经济研究,2018,3(1):19-36.
[19]谢锐,王振国,张彬彬.中国碳排放增长驱动因素及其关键路径研究[J].中国管理科学,2017,(10):122-132.
[20]张琦峰,方恺,徐明,刘庆燕.基于投入产出分析的碳足迹研究进展[J].自然资源学报,2018,33(04):696-708.
[21]张友国.中国区域间碳排放转移:EEBT与MRIO方法的比较[J].重庆理工大学学报(社会科学),2016,30(7):17-27.
[22]张忠杰.中国多区域隐含碳贸易的核算和结构分解分析[J].统计与决策,2017,(13):125-129.
[23]郑林昌,齐蒙,付加锋,赵丹阳.河北省贸易隐含二氧化碳排放及其影响因素研究[J].气候变化研究进展,2017,13(2):157-164.
[24]钟章奇,吴乐英,陈志建,何凌云.区域碳排放转移的演变特征与结构分解及减排对策分析--以河南省为例[J].地理科学,2017,37(5):773-782.
[25]Arce,G.,L.A.López,and D.Guan.Carbon Emissions Embodied in International Trade:The Post-China Era[J].Applied Energy,2016,184:1063-1072.
[26]Caro,D.,F.M.Pulselli,S.Borghesi,and S.Bastianoni.Mapping the International Flows of GHG Emissions within a More Feasible Consumption-based Framework[J].Journal of Cleaner Production,2017,147:142-151.
[27]Chen,M.,S.Wu,Y.Lei,and S.Li.Study on Embodied CO2Transfer between the Jing-Jin-Ji Region and Other Regions in China:A Quantification Using an Interregional Input-output Model[J].Environmental Science&Pollution Research International,2018,25:14068-14082.
[28]Dolter,B.and P.A.Victor.Casting a Long Shadow:Demand-based Accounting of Canada’s Greenhouse Gas Emissions Responsibility[J].Ecological Economics,2016,127:156-164.
[29]Guo,J,Z.Zhang,and L.Meng.China’s Provincial CO2Emissions Embodied in International and Interprovincial Trade[J].Energy Policy,2012,42(3):486-497.
[30]Leontief,W.W.Quantitative Input and Output Relations in the Economic Systems of the United States[J].Review of Economics&Statistics,1936,18(3):105-125.
[31]Mi,Z.,J.Meng,D.Guan,Y.Shan,M.Song,Y.M.Wei,Z.Liu,and K.Hubacek.Chinese CO2Emission Flows Have Reversed since the Global Financial Crisis[J].Nature Communications,2017,8(1):1712.
[32]Peng,S.,W.Zhang,and C.Sun.‘Environmental Load Displacement’from the North to the South:A Consumption-based Perspective with a Focus on China[J].Ecological Economics,2016,128:147-158.
[33]Su,B.and B.W.Ang.Multi-regional Comparisons of Emission Performance:The Structural Decomposition Analysis Approach[J].Ecological Indicators,2016,(67):78-87.
[34]Tukker,A.,S.Giljum,and R.Wood.Recent Progress in Assessment of Resource Efficiency and Environmental Impacts Embodied in Trade:An Introduction to Tthis Special Issue[J].Journal of Industrial Ecology,2018,(3):1-13.
[35]Wiedmann,T.A.Review of Recent Multi-region Input-output Models Used for Consumption-based Emission and Resource Accounting[J].Ecological Economics,2009,69(2):211-222.
[36]Wiedmann,T.,R.Wood,J.C.Minx,M.Lenzen,D.Guan,and R.Harris.A Carbon Footprint Time Series of the UK-results from a Multi-region Input-output Model[J].Economic Systems Research,2010,22(1):19-42.
[37]Xu,Y.and E.Dietzenbacher.A Structural Decomposition Analysis of the Emissions Embodied in Trade[J].Ecological Economics,2014,101:10-20.
[38]Zhang,Z.,R.Huang,Q.Tang,X.Cong,and Z.Wang.China’s Provincial CO2Emissions Embodied in56Trade with Implications for Regional Climate Policy[J].Frontiers of Earth Science,2015,9(1):77-90.
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