丝绸之路经济带交通运输的时空演化特征及对经济发展的影响
|
摘要
采用交通网络维数法、相关系数法和格兰杰因果检验分析法等定量统计方法,系统分析了自1998-2015年丝绸之路经济带九省区交通运输投资额、交通网络发育程度、交通运输能力的时空变化特征及对国民经济发展的影响。结果表明:丝绸之路经济带九省区交通运输投资额总体呈增长趋势,交通网络密度明显低于全国平均水平;交通网络发育程度不高,但增长发育速度较快,道路密度和网络维数均有很大幅度的提升,公路网的通达性水平及增速明显优于铁路网;交通设施建设对经济发展的影响显著,对国民生产总值的促进作用时滞长度为两年左右,但各省区之间的交通基础设施建设造成了不明显的空间溢出效应,体现出丝绸之路经济带各省区之间的经济联系尚处薄弱阶段。
The Silk Road Economic Belt is a great national strategy for opening to the west and promoting economic cooperation with the surrounding region. Speeding up the transportation infrastructure construction is a principal measure to boost the construction of the Silk Road Economic Belt and promote the inter-state connectivity. Applying traffic network dimension,correlation coefficient and Granger causality test,we studied the dynamic change of transportation investment,track network development,traffic capacity and the impact on economic development of the Silk Road Economic Belt,1998-2015. The results show that the transportation investment of9 provinces in the Silk Road Economic Belt presented an increasing trend as a whole,and the speed of 4 southwest provinces was faster than that of the northwest provinces. The track network density was slower than the national average obviously,and the railway network density and the road network density in 2015 were respectively0.04 km/sq.km and 0.14 km·km-2slower than the national average. Development degree of track network was not high. Traffic network dimension increased in 1998-2015,and the railway network dimension increased from1.16 to 1.26,the road network dimension increased from 1.28 to 1.30,but always lower than the national average.This indicates that the traffic development degree of Silk Road Economic Belt was still lower than other regions.The track network development of the 4 southwest provinces was better than that of the 5 northwest provinces.The passenger and cargo capacity of the Silk Road Economic Belt showed an increase trend in 1998-2015 with the improvement of the Silk Road Economic Belt transportation conditions. The passenger and cargo capacity and turnover ability were gradually improving,and railway freight turnover capacity rose dramatically,but the status of road freight turnover throughout the country declined. Selecting gross domestic product(GDP) in1998-2015 and fixed assets of traffic facilities construction(TI)as sample data,applying correlation coefficient analysis,this study demonstrates that transport infrastructure investment of the Silk Road Economic Belt had significant impact on the national economic development. The promotion of transportation infrastructure to the gross national product delayed for two years,and Gross national product had a direct effect on transport infrastructure investment in the same year. The spatial spillover effects of transportation infrastructure were not sizable,which indicated that the economic relation between different provinces was still weak. The innovation point of this essay is to reveal spatial-temporal evolution of the transportation network and its impact on economic development in Silk Road Economic Belt by qualitative and quantitative combined analysis,and this study could provide a scientific basis for promoting the economic development and the traffic infrastructure construction of the Silk Road Economic Belt.
The Silk Road Economic Belt is a great national strategy for opening to the west and promoting economic cooperation with the surrounding region. Speeding up the transportation infrastructure construction is a principal measure to boost the construction of the Silk Road Economic Belt and promote the inter-state connectivity. Applying traffic network dimension,correlation coefficient and Granger causality test,we studied the dynamic change of transportation investment,track network development,traffic capacity and the impact on economic development of the Silk Road Economic Belt,1998-2015. The results show that the transportation investment of9 provinces in the Silk Road Economic Belt presented an increasing trend as a whole,and the speed of 4 southwest provinces was faster than that of the northwest provinces. The track network density was slower than the national average obviously,and the railway network density and the road network density in 2015 were respectively0.04 km/sq.km and 0.14 km·km-2slower than the national average. Development degree of track network was not high. Traffic network dimension increased in 1998-2015,and the railway network dimension increased from1.16 to 1.26,the road network dimension increased from 1.28 to 1.30,but always lower than the national average.This indicates that the traffic development degree of Silk Road Economic Belt was still lower than other regions.The track network development of the 4 southwest provinces was better than that of the 5 northwest provinces.The passenger and cargo capacity of the Silk Road Economic Belt showed an increase trend in 1998-2015 with the improvement of the Silk Road Economic Belt transportation conditions. The passenger and cargo capacity and turnover ability were gradually improving,and railway freight turnover capacity rose dramatically,but the status of road freight turnover throughout the country declined. Selecting gross domestic product(GDP) in1998-2015 and fixed assets of traffic facilities construction(TI)as sample data,applying correlation coefficient analysis,this study demonstrates that transport infrastructure investment of the Silk Road Economic Belt had significant impact on the national economic development. The promotion of transportation infrastructure to the gross national product delayed for two years,and Gross national product had a direct effect on transport infrastructure investment in the same year. The spatial spillover effects of transportation infrastructure were not sizable,which indicated that the economic relation between different provinces was still weak. The innovation point of this essay is to reveal spatial-temporal evolution of the transportation network and its impact on economic development in Silk Road Economic Belt by qualitative and quantitative combined analysis,and this study could provide a scientific basis for promoting the economic development and the traffic infrastructure construction of the Silk Road Economic Belt.
引文
[1]马莉莉,张亚斌,王瑞.丝绸之路经济带:一个文献综述[J].西安财经学院学报,2014,27(4):63-69.[MA Lili,ZHANG Yabin,WANG Rui.The Silk Road Economic Belt:A literature review[J].Journal of Xi’an University of Finance and Economics,2014,27(4):63-69.]
[2]李忠民,夏德水,姚宇.我国新丝绸之路经济带交通基础设施效率分析——基于DEA模型的Malmqusit指数方法[J].求索,2014,(2):97-102.[LI Zhongmin,XIA Deshui,YAO Yu.Study on transportation infrastructure efficiency of the Silk Road Economic Belt[J].Seeker,2014,(2):97-102.]
[3]刘育红,王新安.“新丝绸之路”交通基础设施与全要素生产率增长[J].西安交通大学学报(社会科学版),2012,32(3):54-59.[WANG Yuhong,WANG Xin’an.Transportation infrastructure facilities and the total factor productivity growth of the New Silk Road[J].Journal of Xi’an Jiaotong University(Social Sciences),2012,32(3):54-59.]
[4]陈鹏飞.“新丝绸之路经济带”交通基础设施投资对经济增长影响的实证研究——基于新疆数据的模型检验[J].经营管理者,2014,(10):149-150.[CHEN Pengfei.The impact of transportation infrastructure investment on economic growth in the Silk Road Economic Belt[J].Manager’Journal,2014,(10):149-150.]
[5]王保忠,何炼成,李忠民.“新丝绸之路经济带”一体化战略路径与实施对策[J].经济纵横,2013,(11):63-64.[WANG Baozhong,HE Liancheng,LI Zhongmin.The integration strategy path and implementation measures of the Silk Road Economic Belt[J].Economic Review,2013,(11):63-64].
[6]王瑞军.基于省域视角的中国交通运输对区域经济发展影响研究[D].北京:北京交通大学,2013.[WANG Ruijun.The effects of China's transportation on regional economic development from the provincial perspective[D].Beijing:Beijing Jiaotong University,2013.]
[7]张学良.交通基础设施、空间溢出与区域经济增长[M].南京:南京大学出版社,2009:23-28.[ZHANG Xueliang.Transport infrastructure,spatial spillover and regional economic growth[M].Nanjing:Nanjing University Press,2009:23-28.]
[8]范九利,白暴力,潘泉.基础设施资本对经济增长贡献的研究进展[J].当代经济科学,2004,(2):87-96.[FAN Jiuli,BAI Baoli,PAN Quan.Research progress of infrastructure capital contribution to economic growth[J].Modern Economic Science,2004,(2):87-96.]
[9]刘勇.交通基础设施、区域经济增长及空间溢出作用——基于公路、水运交通的面板数据分析[J].中国工业经济,2010,(12):12-17.[LIU Yong.Transport infrastructure investment,regional economic growth and the spatial spillover effects:Based on highway and marine’s panel data analysis[J].China Industrial Economics,2010,(12):12-17.]
[10]刘海猛,方创琳,任宇飞.丝绸之路经济带中哈国际合作示范区物流业发展与跨境电商平台建设[J].干旱区地理,2016,39(5):1201-1210.[LIU Haimeng,FANG Chuanglin,REN Yufei.Logistics industry and cross-border electric business of Sino-Kazakhstan cooperation demonstration zone in Silk Road Economic Belt[J].Arid Land Geography,2016,39(5):1201-1210.]
[11]齐胜达,雷军,段祖亮,等.中国丝绸之路经济带区域物流空间差异及其演化研究[J].干旱区地理,2016,39(1):207-215.[QI Shengda,LEI Jun,DUAN Zuliang,et al.Spatial difference and evolution of regional logistic in Silk-road Economic Belt in China[J].Arid Land Geography,2016,39(1):207-215.]
[12]魏晓旭,赵军,魏伟.丝绸之路经济带中国段经济发展时空演化特征[J].干旱区地理,2015,38(6):1300-1309.[WEI Xiaoxu,ZHAO Jun,WEI Wei.Spatio-temporal evolution characteristics of economic development in Chinese section of Silk Road Economic Belt[J].Arid Land Geography,2015,38(6):1300-1309.]
(1)注:本文仅研究了公路网和铁路网,因此比重计算的分母为公路与铁路的总和,而不包括水运和航运等其他交通类型
[2]李忠民,夏德水,姚宇.我国新丝绸之路经济带交通基础设施效率分析——基于DEA模型的Malmqusit指数方法[J].求索,2014,(2):97-102.[LI Zhongmin,XIA Deshui,YAO Yu.Study on transportation infrastructure efficiency of the Silk Road Economic Belt[J].Seeker,2014,(2):97-102.]
[3]刘育红,王新安.“新丝绸之路”交通基础设施与全要素生产率增长[J].西安交通大学学报(社会科学版),2012,32(3):54-59.[WANG Yuhong,WANG Xin’an.Transportation infrastructure facilities and the total factor productivity growth of the New Silk Road[J].Journal of Xi’an Jiaotong University(Social Sciences),2012,32(3):54-59.]
[4]陈鹏飞.“新丝绸之路经济带”交通基础设施投资对经济增长影响的实证研究——基于新疆数据的模型检验[J].经营管理者,2014,(10):149-150.[CHEN Pengfei.The impact of transportation infrastructure investment on economic growth in the Silk Road Economic Belt[J].Manager’Journal,2014,(10):149-150.]
[5]王保忠,何炼成,李忠民.“新丝绸之路经济带”一体化战略路径与实施对策[J].经济纵横,2013,(11):63-64.[WANG Baozhong,HE Liancheng,LI Zhongmin.The integration strategy path and implementation measures of the Silk Road Economic Belt[J].Economic Review,2013,(11):63-64].
[6]王瑞军.基于省域视角的中国交通运输对区域经济发展影响研究[D].北京:北京交通大学,2013.[WANG Ruijun.The effects of China's transportation on regional economic development from the provincial perspective[D].Beijing:Beijing Jiaotong University,2013.]
[7]张学良.交通基础设施、空间溢出与区域经济增长[M].南京:南京大学出版社,2009:23-28.[ZHANG Xueliang.Transport infrastructure,spatial spillover and regional economic growth[M].Nanjing:Nanjing University Press,2009:23-28.]
[8]范九利,白暴力,潘泉.基础设施资本对经济增长贡献的研究进展[J].当代经济科学,2004,(2):87-96.[FAN Jiuli,BAI Baoli,PAN Quan.Research progress of infrastructure capital contribution to economic growth[J].Modern Economic Science,2004,(2):87-96.]
[9]刘勇.交通基础设施、区域经济增长及空间溢出作用——基于公路、水运交通的面板数据分析[J].中国工业经济,2010,(12):12-17.[LIU Yong.Transport infrastructure investment,regional economic growth and the spatial spillover effects:Based on highway and marine’s panel data analysis[J].China Industrial Economics,2010,(12):12-17.]
[10]刘海猛,方创琳,任宇飞.丝绸之路经济带中哈国际合作示范区物流业发展与跨境电商平台建设[J].干旱区地理,2016,39(5):1201-1210.[LIU Haimeng,FANG Chuanglin,REN Yufei.Logistics industry and cross-border electric business of Sino-Kazakhstan cooperation demonstration zone in Silk Road Economic Belt[J].Arid Land Geography,2016,39(5):1201-1210.]
[11]齐胜达,雷军,段祖亮,等.中国丝绸之路经济带区域物流空间差异及其演化研究[J].干旱区地理,2016,39(1):207-215.[QI Shengda,LEI Jun,DUAN Zuliang,et al.Spatial difference and evolution of regional logistic in Silk-road Economic Belt in China[J].Arid Land Geography,2016,39(1):207-215.]
[12]魏晓旭,赵军,魏伟.丝绸之路经济带中国段经济发展时空演化特征[J].干旱区地理,2015,38(6):1300-1309.[WEI Xiaoxu,ZHAO Jun,WEI Wei.Spatio-temporal evolution characteristics of economic development in Chinese section of Silk Road Economic Belt[J].Arid Land Geography,2015,38(6):1300-1309.]
(1)注:本文仅研究了公路网和铁路网,因此比重计算的分母为公路与铁路的总和,而不包括水运和航运等其他交通类型