基于物理关联的相互依赖关键基础设施网络模型构建
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摘要
相互依赖关键基础设施的脆弱性、风险评估等相关研究能够为其保护提供依据,其中,建模是基础,确定相互依赖关系则是建模的前提。针对微观层次的相互依赖关系确定问题,从物理关联的角度,提出一种基于"输入-输出"的关键基础设施相互依赖关系分析方法。在此基础上,以能源、通信、供水和交通系统为对象,结合各系统的层次结构,构建相互依赖网络模型,并给出考虑供给能力和数量的边权值确定方法。最后,以武汉市的能源、通信、供水和交通系统为例,建立不同层次的相互依赖网络,发现能源类节点的影响力最高,需要给予更多的关注。
Modeling of interdependent critical infrastructures(CIs) serves as a basis for vulnerability and risk assessment of CIs which can contribute to CIs protection, in which identifying the interdependency among CIs is the premise of the modeling process. In order to determine the interdependence among CIs at the microscopic level, and in view of physical interdependency, an interdependency analysis method based on the "input-output" relationship of CIs was proposed. Based on this method, an interdependent network model was constructed by taking energy, telecommunication, water supply, and transportation systems as research objects, in which the hierarchical structure of each system was specially taken into account. Furthermore, a method was provided for calculating weight values of edges in the network considering the supply capacity and quantity of CIs components. Taking Wuhan as an example, interdependent networks of the aforementioned types of CIs at different hierarchies were constructed. The results show that energy nodes have the most significant influence in the constructed networks, which should be given more concerns.
Modeling of interdependent critical infrastructures(CIs) serves as a basis for vulnerability and risk assessment of CIs which can contribute to CIs protection, in which identifying the interdependency among CIs is the premise of the modeling process. In order to determine the interdependence among CIs at the microscopic level, and in view of physical interdependency, an interdependency analysis method based on the "input-output" relationship of CIs was proposed. Based on this method, an interdependent network model was constructed by taking energy, telecommunication, water supply, and transportation systems as research objects, in which the hierarchical structure of each system was specially taken into account. Furthermore, a method was provided for calculating weight values of edges in the network considering the supply capacity and quantity of CIs components. Taking Wuhan as an example, interdependent networks of the aforementioned types of CIs at different hierarchies were constructed. The results show that energy nodes have the most significant influence in the constructed networks, which should be given more concerns.
引文
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[2] Liu X,Peng H,Gao J.Vulnerability and controllability of networks of networks[J].Chaos,Solitons & Fractals,2015,80:125-138.
[3] 张超,孔静静.关联基础设施系统相互作用模型与脆弱性分析[J].系统管理学报,2016,25(5):922-929.
[4] 张超,韩传峰,孟令鹏,等.供电和供水系统关联失效动力学模型及修复策略[J].系统管理学报,2012,21(4):564-570.
[5] Wu B,Tang A,Wu J.Modeling cascading failures in interdependent infrastructures under terrorist attacks[J].Reliability Engineering and System Safety,2016,147:1-8.
[6] Wang S,Hong L,Ouyang M,et al.Vulnerability analysis of interdependent infrastructure systems under edge attack strategies[J].Safety Science,2013,51(1):328-337.
[7] Poljan?ek K,Bono F,Gutiérrez E.Seismic risk assessment of interdependent critical infrastructure systems:The case of European gas and electricity networks[J].Earthquake Engineering and Structural Dynamics,2015,41(41):61-79.
[8] Rinaldi S M,Peerenboom J P,Kelly T K.Identifying,understanding,and analyzing critical infrastructure interdependencies[J].IEEE Control Systems,2001,21(6):11-25.
[9] Zimmerman R.Social implications of infrastructure network interactions[J].Journal of Urban Technology,2001,8(3):97-119.
[10] Lee E E,Mitchell J E,Wallace W A.Restoration of services in interdependent infrastructure systems:A network flows approach[J].IEEE Transactions on systems,Man,and Cybernetics—Part C:Application and Reviews,2007,37(6):1303-1317.
[11] Zhang P,Peeta S.A generalized modeling framework to analyze interdependencies among infrastructure systems[J].Transportation Research Part B:Methodological,2011,45(3):553-579.
[12] Ouyang M.Review on modeling and simulation of interdependent critical infrastructure systems[J].Reliability Engineering and System Safety,2014,121:43-60.
[13] Rehak D,Markuci J,Hromada M,et al.Quantitative evaluation of the synergistic effects of failures in a critical infrastructure system[J].International Journal of Critical Infrastructure Protection,2016,14:3-17.
[14] Gao J,Buldyrev S V,Havlin S,et al.From a single network to a network of networks[J].National Science Review,2014,1(3):346-356.
[15] Lauge A,Hernantes J,Sarriegi J M.Critical infrastructure dependencies:A holistic,dynamic and quantitative approach[J].International Journal of Critical Infrastructure Protection,2015,8:16-23.
[16] Min H S J,Beyeler W,Brown T,et al.Toward modeling and simulation of critical national infrastructure interdependencies[J].Iie Transactions,2007,39(1):57-71.
[17] Pinnaka S,Yarlagadda R,?etinkaya E K.Modelling robustness of critical infrastructure networks[C]//Design of Reliable Communication Networks (DRCN).[s.l.]:IEEE,2015:95-98.
[18] He X.Modeling the damage and recovery of interdependent critical civil infrastructure systems[J].Reliability Engineering & System Safety,2018,177:162-175.
[19] Buldyrev S V,Parshani R,Paul G,et al.Catastrophic cascade of failures in interdependent networks[J].Nature,2010,464(7291):1025-1028.
[20] Rueda D F,Calle E.Using interdependency matrices to mitigate targeted attacks on interdependent networks:A case study involving a power grid and backbone telecommunications networks[J].International Journal of Critical Infrastructure Protection,2016,16:3-12.
[21] Reed D,Wang S,Kapur K,et al.Systems-based approach to interdependent electric power delivery and telecommunications infrastructure resilience subject to weather-related hazards[J].Journal of Structural Engineering,2016,142(8):C4015011.
[22] Ouyang M.Critical location identification and vulnerability analysis of interdependent infrastructure systems under spatially localized attacks[J].Reliability Engineering & System Safety,2016,154:106-116.
[23] Chertkov M,Backhaus S,Lebedev V.Cascading of fluctuations in interdependent energy infrastructures:Gas-grid coupling[J].Applied Energy,2015,160:541-551.
[24] Zlotnik A,Roald L,Backhaus S,et al.Coordinated scheduling for interdependent electric power and natural gas infrastructures[J].IEEE Transactions on Power Systems,2017,32(1):600-610.
[25] Wu J,Dueňas-Osorio L.Calibration and validation of a seismic damage propagation model for interdependent infrastructure systems[J].Earthquake Spectra,2013,29(3):1021-1041.
[26] Zhang Yanlu,Yang Naiding,Lall U.Modeling and simulation of the vulnerability of interdependent power-water infrastructure networks to cascading fail users [J].Journal of Systems Science and Systems Engineering,2016,25(1):102-118.
[27] Omidvar B,Malekshah M H,Omidvar H.Failure risk assessment of interdependent infrastructures against earthquake,a Petri net approach:Case study—power and water distribution networks[J].Natural Hazards,2014,71(3):1971-1993.
[28] Hu J,Yu J,Cao J,et al.Topological interactive analysis of power system and its communication module:A complex network approach[J].Physica A Statistical Mechanics & Its Applications,2014,416:99-111.
[29] 董政呈,方彦军,田猛.不同耦合方式和耦合强度对电力-通信耦合网络的影响[J].高电压技术,2015,41(10):3464-3469.
[30] Zhang J,Song B,Zhang Z,et al.An approach for modeling vulnerability of the network of networks[J].Physica A:Statistical Mechanics and its Applications,2014,412:127-136.
[31] Pant R,Hall J W,Blainey S P.Vulnerability assessment framework for interdependent critical infrastructures:Case-study for Great Britain’s rail network[J].European Journal of Transport and Infrastructure Research,2016,16(1):174-194.
[32] Ouyang M,Pan Z Z,Hong L,et al.Vulnerability analysis of complementary transportation systems with applications to railway and airline systems in China[J].Reliability Engineering and System Safety,2015,142:248-257.
[33] Augutis J,Jok?as B,Krik?tolaitis R,et al.The assessment technology of energy critical infrastructure [J].Applied Energy,2016,162:1494-1504.
[34] Svendsen N K,Wolthusen S D.Connectivity models of interdependency in mixed-type critical infrastructure networks[J].Information Security Technical Report,2007,12(1):44-55.
[35] Wu J,Dueňas-Osorio L.Calibration and validation of a seismic damage propagation model for interdependent infrastructure systems[J].Earthquake Spectra,2013,29(3):1021-1041.
[36] Wang S,Hong L,Chen X.Vulnerability analysis of interdependent infrastructure systems:A methodological framework[J].Physica A:Statistical Mechanics and its Applications,2012,391(11):3323-3335.
[37] 毛子骏,费奇,廖元文,等.城市基础设施网络关联响应研究[J].华中科技大学学报(自然科学版),2009,37(2):64-67.
[38] Kamvar S D,Haveliwala T H,Manning C D,et al.Extrapolation methods for accelerating PageRank computations[C]// International Conference on World Wide Web.[s.l.]:ACM,2003:261-270.
[39] 王诗莹,李向阳,张佰尚.面向脆弱性的城市CIS节点重要性评估方法[J].系统管理学报,2017,26(2):210-218.
[40] Adachi T,Ellingwood B R.Serviceability of earthquake-damaged water systems:Effects of electrical power availability and power backup systems on system vulnerability[J].Reliability Engineering and System Safety,2008,93(1):78-88.
[41] Barab'asi A R.Statistical mechanics of complex networks[J].Reviews mod.Physica,2002,74(1):2002.