特朗普政府经贸战略探析:“美国优先”的国际贸易新秩序
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摘要
美国总统特朗普上任以来,高调推行"美国优先",发动一连串的贸易争端,扰动国际经贸秩序。特朗普政府的战略目的为何,引发国际社会的诸多讨论。本文旨在探究特朗普政府的经贸战略,以修正主义霸权的设定,诠释特朗普政府的政策行为。特朗普政府抛弃旧有的新自由主义国际合作机制,转而通过强势的贸易冲突的政策手段,目的在于打破多边国际经贸体制,试图建立以美国为中心、由美国与其他国家重新磋商的双边自由贸易协议为框架的新架构。被解读为走向孤立主义与贸易保护主义的特朗普政府,实则可能正在布局一个再次由美国霸权主导、符合其战略定义、公共产品成本最低、自由度最高的新国际秩序,以确保美国利益的最大化。特朗普政府的国际经贸政策布局有其大战略的意义,不能仅被看作是贸易保护主义或孤立主义。本文还以美国对加拿大、欧盟、中国的贸易冲突的分析,探讨特朗普政府经贸政策的实施与演进。
Since President Trump assumed office,his "America First"policy has turned into a series of trade wars that severely disrupted international economic order within less than two years. This paper digs into Trump's economic strategic thinking,following the hypothesis of the United States under President Trump being a revisionist hegemon, to examine what the allegedly-irrational President Trump and his policy might aim at. This research holds the thesis that instead of following the traditional approach of neo-liberal multilateral regime adopted by his predecessors,President Trump develops his own way to safeguard American national interest by attempting to create a new international order,centered on the American preference,structured by bilateral free trade agreements concluded by the US and all the other states respectively. This paper continues to provide three case analyses of American trade disputes with Canada,the European Union and China for further understanding of the implementation of American trade policy.
Since President Trump assumed office,his "America First"policy has turned into a series of trade wars that severely disrupted international economic order within less than two years. This paper digs into Trump's economic strategic thinking,following the hypothesis of the United States under President Trump being a revisionist hegemon, to examine what the allegedly-irrational President Trump and his policy might aim at. This research holds the thesis that instead of following the traditional approach of neo-liberal multilateral regime adopted by his predecessors,President Trump develops his own way to safeguard American national interest by attempting to create a new international order,centered on the American preference,structured by bilateral free trade agreements concluded by the US and all the other states respectively. This paper continues to provide three case analyses of American trade disputes with Canada,the European Union and China for further understanding of the implementation of American trade policy.
引文
(1)“France’s Macron Takes Aim at Trump Agenda in Pointed Speech to Congress,”https://edition. cnn. com/2018/04/25/politics/france-president-emmanuel-macron-joint-addresscongress/index. html.
(2)Lawrence Summers,“Donald Trump’s Trade Policy Violates Every Rule of Strategy,”Financial Times, June 5, 2018, https://www. ft. com/content/4eda86ec-67da-11e8-aee1-39 f3459514fd.
(1)Randall L. Schweller,“Bandwagoning for Profit:Bringing the Revisionist State Back in,”International Security,Vol. 19,No. 1,Summer 1994,pp. 87-88,105; Randall L. Schweller,Deadly Imbalances:Tripolarity and Hitler’s Strategy of World Conquest(New York:Columbia University Press,1998),p. 24.
(2)Joseph M. Grieco,Cooperation among Nations Europe,America,and Non-Tariff Barriers to Trade(Ithaca:Cornell University Press,1990).
(3)John J. Mearsheimer,“China’s Unpeaceful Rise,”Current History,Volume 105,April 2006,pp. 160-162,http://mearsheimer. uchicago. edu/pdfs/A0051. pdf.
(1)Alastair Iain Johnston,“Is China a Status Quo Power?”International Security,Vol. 27,No. 4,Spring 2003,p. 9.
(2)Katherine Combes,“Between Revisionism and Status Quo:China in International Regimes.China’s Behaviour in The Global Trade,Non-Proliferation and Environmental Regimes,”POLIS Journal,6,2012; Deepshikha Shahi,“India in the Emerging World Order:A Status Quo Power or a Revisionist Force?” El Transnational Institute(TNI),September 4,2014,https://www. tni. org/es/node/1622.
(3)The White House,National Security Strategy of the United States of America,December,2017,https://www. whitehouse. gov/wp-content/uploads/2017/12/NSS-Final-12-18-2017-0905. pdf.
(4)Edward H. Carr,The Twenty Year’s Crisis 1919-1939(London:MacMillan,1951),p. 107.
(1)Stephen D. Krasner,“State Power and the Structure of International Trade,”World Politics,Vol. 28,No. 3,April,1976,pp. 322-323.
(2)Charles P. Kindleberger,“International Public Goods without International Government,”American Economic Review,Vol. 76,No. 1,1986,pp. 1-13.
(3)Duncan Snidal,“The Limits of Hegemonic Stability Theory,” International Organization,Vol. 39,No. 4,1985,pp. 579-614.
(4)Robert Gilpin,The Political Economy of International Relations(Princeton:Princeton University Press,1980),p. 72.
(1)George Modelski,William R. Thompson,Sea Power in Global Politic:1494-1993(Hampshire:Mac Millan Press,1987),pp. 16-21.
(2)Immanuel Wallenstein,“The Future of the World-Economy,” in Terence K. Hopkins,Immanuel Wallenstein,eds.,Process of the World-System(London:Sage Publications,1980),pp. 168-180.
(3)Robert Keohane,After Hegemony:Cooperation and Discord in the World Political Economy(Princeton:Princeton University Press,1984),p. 46.
(4)Martha Finnemore,Kathryn Sikkink,“International Norm Dynamics and Political Change,”International Organization,Vol. 52,No. 4,Autumn,1998,pp. 887-917.
(5)A. F. K. Organski,Jacek Kugler,The War Ledger(Chicago:The University of Chicago Press,1980).
(1)Joseph S. Nye Jr.,“The Future of Power,”Public Affairs,2011.
(2)Ronald L. Tammen et al.,Power Transitions:Strategies for the 21st Century(New York:Chatham House Publishers of Seven Bridges Press,2000),pp. 6-9.
(3)Woodrow Wilson,“The World Must Be Made Safe for Democracy,” Speech at Washington D. C.,April 2,1917. http://www. ushistoryatlas. com/era7/USHAcom_PS_U07_warmessage_R2. pdf.
(4)Akira Iriye,“Beyond Imperialism:The New Internationalism,” Ddalus,Vol. 134,No. 2,Spring,2005,pp. 108-116.
(1)First Presidential Debate at Hofstra University,September 26,2016,NBC News,http://www. ontheissues. org/2016_Prez_1. htm.
(1)2016 CBS Republican Primary Debate in South Carolina,February 13,2016,Transcript,https://www. washingtonpost. com/news/the-fix/wp/2016/02/13/the-cbs-republicandebate-transcript-annotated/? utm_term=. 98f67973252a.
(2)Third Presidential Debate,October 19,2016,Fox News,http://www. ontheissues. org/2016_Prez_3. htm.
(3)First Presidential Debate at Hofstra University,September 26,2016,NBC News,http://www. ontheissues. org/2016_Prez_1. htm.
(4)2018 State of the Union Address,January 30,2018,https://www. whitehouse. gov/briefingsstatements/president-donald-j-trumps-state-union-address/.
(1)“President Donald J. Trump Is Promoting Free,Fair,and Reciprocal Trade,”White House Fact Sheet, January 30,2018, https://www. whitehouse. gov/briefings-statements/presidentdonald-j-trump-promoting-free-fair-reciprocal-trade/.
(2)“Trump Tweets:‘Trade Wars Are Good,and Easy to Win’,”Reuters,March 2,2018,https://www. reuters. com/article/us-usa-trade-trump/trump-tweets-trade-wars-aregood-and-easy-to-win-id USKCN1GE1E9.
(1)Jay Yarow,“Peter Thiel Perfectly Summed up Donald Trump in a Few Sentences,”CNBC,November 9,2016,https://www. cnbc. com/2016/11/09/peter-thiel-perfectly-summedup-donald-trump-in-one-paragraph. html.
(2)Zachary Karabell,“Trump’s Creative Destruction of the International Order,”Foreign Policy,June 11,2018,https://foreignpolicy. com/2018/06/11/trumps-creative-destruction-ofthe-international-order/.
(1)Kate Davidson,“White House Economic Adviser Says Benefits of Tariffs Would Outweigh Costs,”The Wall Street Journal, March 7,2018, https://www. wsj. com/articles/white-houseeconomic-adviser-saysbenefits-of-tariffs-would-outweigh-costs-1520457232.
(2)以钢铁贸易为例,美国对印度出口至美国的钢铁和铝分别加征收25%和10%的关税。韩国虽然以自动出口设限方式,争取美国同意豁免钢铁关税,美国却另设进口配额障碍,限制韩国的钢铁进口。
(3)Bob Bryan,“Top Republican Senator:Trump Wants to Jump back in the Massive Trade Deal He once Called a Rape of Our Country,” Business Insider, April 12, 2018, https://www.businessinsider. com/tpp-deal-trump-kudlow-us-back-in-2018-4.
(4)“Trump:Will Work to Reform WTO&Address Unfair Trade,”CNBC,July 25,2018,https://www. cnbc. com/video/2018/07/25/trump-reform-wto-unfair-trade. html.
(1)Alexander Panetta,“No More Mr. Nice Trump:President Fires Warning to Canada,”Canada’s National Observer,April 20,2017,https://www. nationalobserver. com/2017/04/20/news/nomore-mr-nice-trump-president-fires-warning-canada.
(1)根据美国全国住宅建筑商协会(National Association of Home Builders)的统计,特朗普政府对加拿大软木木材增收关税,导致全国住房建设成本提高。参见《特朗普贸易战建筑成本提高房屋销量及就业减少》,《联合报》,2018年8月2日。
(1)《欧盟成员国一致同意对美国钢铝关税实施报复最快下周实施》,《华尔街见闻》,2018年6月15日。参见https://news. cnyes. com/news/id/4144669。
(2)Elizabeth Brown-Kaiser,“Trump versus Trudeau:A timeline of Tough Words and Trade Tariffs,”ABC News,July 2,2018,https://abcnews. go. com/Politics/trump-versus-trudeau-timelinetough-words-trade-tariffs/story? id=56313912.
(3)《北美区贸易战7成加国民众拒买美国货》,《自由时报》,2018年6月18日。参见http://ec. ltn. com. tw/article/breakingnews/2461491。
(4)Megan Cassella,Sabrina Rodrigues,“NAFTA ‘Handshake’ Deal with Mexico Targeted for Thursday,”Politico,August 21,2018,https://www. politico. com/story/2018/08/21/trumpnafta-mexico-746332.
(1)Margaret Talev,“Trump Was Asked Who the Biggest U. S. Foe Is. He Mentioned the EU First,”Politico,July 15,2018,https://www. bloomberg. com/news/articles/2018-07-15/trump-calls-european-union-a-u-s-foe-citing-trade-tension.
(1)颜嘉南:《美国汽车关税报告延后出炉特朗普再谈对欧盟汽车课税》,《工商时报》,2018年8 月22日。参见http://www. chinatimes. com/realtimenews/20180822004530-260410。
(2)《欧盟成员国一致同意对美国钢铝关税实施报复最快下周实施》,《华尔街见闻》,2018年6月15日。
(3)Republican Debate in Miami on Eve of Florida Primary,March 10,2016,http://www. ontheissues.org/2016_CBS_GOP_FL. htm.
(4)US Census Bureau,Trade in Goods with China,https://www. census. gov/foreign-trade/balance/c5700. html#2018.
(1)Mohamed A. El-Erian,“A ‘Reagan Moment’for Trump?”Nikkei Asian Review,July 10,2018. https://asia. nikkei. com/Opinion/A-Reagan-moment-for-Trump.
(2)Lawrence Summers,“Donald Trump’s Trade Policy Violates Every Rule of Strategy,”Financial Times, June 5, 2018, https://www. ft. com/content/4eda86ec-67da-11e8-aee1-39 f3459514fd.
(1)Randall L. Schweller,“Bandwagoning for Profit:Bringing the Revisionist State Back in,”International Security,Vol. 19,No. 1,Summer 1994,pp. 87-88,105; Randall L. Schweller,Deadly Imbalances:Tripolarity and Hitler’s Strategy of World Conquest(New York:Columbia University Press,1998),p. 24.
(2)Joseph M. Grieco,Cooperation among Nations Europe,America,and Non-Tariff Barriers to Trade(Ithaca:Cornell University Press,1990).
(3)John J. Mearsheimer,“China’s Unpeaceful Rise,”Current History,Volume 105,April 2006,pp. 160-162,http://mearsheimer. uchicago. edu/pdfs/A0051. pdf.
(1)Alastair Iain Johnston,“Is China a Status Quo Power?”International Security,Vol. 27,No. 4,Spring 2003,p. 9.
(2)Katherine Combes,“Between Revisionism and Status Quo:China in International Regimes.China’s Behaviour in The Global Trade,Non-Proliferation and Environmental Regimes,”POLIS Journal,6,2012; Deepshikha Shahi,“India in the Emerging World Order:A Status Quo Power or a Revisionist Force?” El Transnational Institute(TNI),September 4,2014,https://www. tni. org/es/node/1622.
(3)The White House,National Security Strategy of the United States of America,December,2017,https://www. whitehouse. gov/wp-content/uploads/2017/12/NSS-Final-12-18-2017-0905. pdf.
(4)Edward H. Carr,The Twenty Year’s Crisis 1919-1939(London:MacMillan,1951),p. 107.
(1)Stephen D. Krasner,“State Power and the Structure of International Trade,”World Politics,Vol. 28,No. 3,April,1976,pp. 322-323.
(2)Charles P. Kindleberger,“International Public Goods without International Government,”American Economic Review,Vol. 76,No. 1,1986,pp. 1-13.
(3)Duncan Snidal,“The Limits of Hegemonic Stability Theory,” International Organization,Vol. 39,No. 4,1985,pp. 579-614.
(4)Robert Gilpin,The Political Economy of International Relations(Princeton:Princeton University Press,1980),p. 72.
(1)George Modelski,William R. Thompson,Sea Power in Global Politic:1494-1993(Hampshire:Mac Millan Press,1987),pp. 16-21.
(2)Immanuel Wallenstein,“The Future of the World-Economy,” in Terence K. Hopkins,Immanuel Wallenstein,eds.,Process of the World-System(London:Sage Publications,1980),pp. 168-180.
(3)Robert Keohane,After Hegemony:Cooperation and Discord in the World Political Economy(Princeton:Princeton University Press,1984),p. 46.
(4)Martha Finnemore,Kathryn Sikkink,“International Norm Dynamics and Political Change,”International Organization,Vol. 52,No. 4,Autumn,1998,pp. 887-917.
(5)A. F. K. Organski,Jacek Kugler,The War Ledger(Chicago:The University of Chicago Press,1980).
(1)Joseph S. Nye Jr.,“The Future of Power,”Public Affairs,2011.
(2)Ronald L. Tammen et al.,Power Transitions:Strategies for the 21st Century(New York:Chatham House Publishers of Seven Bridges Press,2000),pp. 6-9.
(3)Woodrow Wilson,“The World Must Be Made Safe for Democracy,” Speech at Washington D. C.,April 2,1917. http://www. ushistoryatlas. com/era7/USHAcom_PS_U07_warmessage_R2. pdf.
(4)Akira Iriye,“Beyond Imperialism:The New Internationalism,” Ddalus,Vol. 134,No. 2,Spring,2005,pp. 108-116.
(1)First Presidential Debate at Hofstra University,September 26,2016,NBC News,http://www. ontheissues. org/2016_Prez_1. htm.
(1)2016 CBS Republican Primary Debate in South Carolina,February 13,2016,Transcript,https://www. washingtonpost. com/news/the-fix/wp/2016/02/13/the-cbs-republicandebate-transcript-annotated/? utm_term=. 98f67973252a.
(2)Third Presidential Debate,October 19,2016,Fox News,http://www. ontheissues. org/2016_Prez_3. htm.
(3)First Presidential Debate at Hofstra University,September 26,2016,NBC News,http://www. ontheissues. org/2016_Prez_1. htm.
(4)2018 State of the Union Address,January 30,2018,https://www. whitehouse. gov/briefingsstatements/president-donald-j-trumps-state-union-address/.
(1)“President Donald J. Trump Is Promoting Free,Fair,and Reciprocal Trade,”White House Fact Sheet, January 30,2018, https://www. whitehouse. gov/briefings-statements/presidentdonald-j-trump-promoting-free-fair-reciprocal-trade/.
(2)“Trump Tweets:‘Trade Wars Are Good,and Easy to Win’,”Reuters,March 2,2018,https://www. reuters. com/article/us-usa-trade-trump/trump-tweets-trade-wars-aregood-and-easy-to-win-id USKCN1GE1E9.
(1)Jay Yarow,“Peter Thiel Perfectly Summed up Donald Trump in a Few Sentences,”CNBC,November 9,2016,https://www. cnbc. com/2016/11/09/peter-thiel-perfectly-summedup-donald-trump-in-one-paragraph. html.
(2)Zachary Karabell,“Trump’s Creative Destruction of the International Order,”Foreign Policy,June 11,2018,https://foreignpolicy. com/2018/06/11/trumps-creative-destruction-ofthe-international-order/.
(1)Kate Davidson,“White House Economic Adviser Says Benefits of Tariffs Would Outweigh Costs,”The Wall Street Journal, March 7,2018, https://www. wsj. com/articles/white-houseeconomic-adviser-saysbenefits-of-tariffs-would-outweigh-costs-1520457232.
(2)以钢铁贸易为例,美国对印度出口至美国的钢铁和铝分别加征收25%和10%的关税。韩国虽然以自动出口设限方式,争取美国同意豁免钢铁关税,美国却另设进口配额障碍,限制韩国的钢铁进口。
(3)Bob Bryan,“Top Republican Senator:Trump Wants to Jump back in the Massive Trade Deal He once Called a Rape of Our Country,” Business Insider, April 12, 2018, https://www.businessinsider. com/tpp-deal-trump-kudlow-us-back-in-2018-4.
(4)“Trump:Will Work to Reform WTO&Address Unfair Trade,”CNBC,July 25,2018,https://www. cnbc. com/video/2018/07/25/trump-reform-wto-unfair-trade. html.
(1)Alexander Panetta,“No More Mr. Nice Trump:President Fires Warning to Canada,”Canada’s National Observer,April 20,2017,https://www. nationalobserver. com/2017/04/20/news/nomore-mr-nice-trump-president-fires-warning-canada.
(1)根据美国全国住宅建筑商协会(National Association of Home Builders)的统计,特朗普政府对加拿大软木木材增收关税,导致全国住房建设成本提高。参见《特朗普贸易战建筑成本提高房屋销量及就业减少》,《联合报》,2018年8月2日。
(1)《欧盟成员国一致同意对美国钢铝关税实施报复最快下周实施》,《华尔街见闻》,2018年6月15日。参见https://news. cnyes. com/news/id/4144669。
(2)Elizabeth Brown-Kaiser,“Trump versus Trudeau:A timeline of Tough Words and Trade Tariffs,”ABC News,July 2,2018,https://abcnews. go. com/Politics/trump-versus-trudeau-timelinetough-words-trade-tariffs/story? id=56313912.
(3)《北美区贸易战7成加国民众拒买美国货》,《自由时报》,2018年6月18日。参见http://ec. ltn. com. tw/article/breakingnews/2461491。
(4)Megan Cassella,Sabrina Rodrigues,“NAFTA ‘Handshake’ Deal with Mexico Targeted for Thursday,”Politico,August 21,2018,https://www. politico. com/story/2018/08/21/trumpnafta-mexico-746332.
(1)Margaret Talev,“Trump Was Asked Who the Biggest U. S. Foe Is. He Mentioned the EU First,”Politico,July 15,2018,https://www. bloomberg. com/news/articles/2018-07-15/trump-calls-european-union-a-u-s-foe-citing-trade-tension.
(1)颜嘉南:《美国汽车关税报告延后出炉特朗普再谈对欧盟汽车课税》,《工商时报》,2018年8 月22日。参见http://www. chinatimes. com/realtimenews/20180822004530-260410。
(2)《欧盟成员国一致同意对美国钢铝关税实施报复最快下周实施》,《华尔街见闻》,2018年6月15日。
(3)Republican Debate in Miami on Eve of Florida Primary,March 10,2016,http://www. ontheissues.org/2016_CBS_GOP_FL. htm.
(4)US Census Bureau,Trade in Goods with China,https://www. census. gov/foreign-trade/balance/c5700. html#2018.
(1)Mohamed A. El-Erian,“A ‘Reagan Moment’for Trump?”Nikkei Asian Review,July 10,2018. https://asia. nikkei. com/Opinion/A-Reagan-moment-for-Trump.