近50年来海拔高度对参考蒸散发变化趋势的影响研究——以四川省为例
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摘要
参考蒸散发ET_0是水文气象研究中关键变量,其在不同海拔区域对气象要素的响应特征不尽相同。基于四川省境内不同海拔区域的38个气象站点的基础数据,利用FAO-56 Penman-Monteith方法计算其1970—2016年共47年逐日的参考蒸散发ET_0,通过滑动T检验识别ET_0序列存在的突变点,并分析ET_0以及相关气象要素在四川省不同海拔的分布特征,采用敏感度分析法以及贡献率法分析气象要素在不同海拔对ET_0变化的响应。结果表明:(1)ET_0序列随海拔升高呈先增加后减少的趋势,低海拔(低于1 500 m)、中海拔(1 500～3 000 m),高海拔(高于3 000 m)ET_0年均值分别为745、1 001、964 mm·a~(-1);(2)1998年是序列的突变点,在1970—1998年有显著的下降趋势,而后序列显著增加;突变点前后相对湿度、日照时间和风速趋势发生改变,而日平均温度在1998年前后均保持增加趋势;(3)敏感度分析结果表明,相对湿度对ET_0响应最大,日照时间最小;(4)贡献度分析表明,相对湿度、风速和日照时间对于ET_0的变化的贡献率在1998年发生转折,而温度对于ET_0的变化均为正贡献;(5)在中海拔和低海拔区域,参考蒸散发变化主要驱动要素为风速,而在高海拔则主要为温度及相对湿度。该研究结果将有助于深入了解气象要素对ET_0变化的响应,为四川省水资源规划与管理提供科学依据。
Reference evapotranspiration(ET_0), an indicator of global climate change, makes different responses to the meteorological variable at different altitudes. The present study, based on the basic data of 38 meteorological stations in different altitude areas in Sichuan province, investigated the attribution of the change of the daily ET_0 and used the FAO-56 Penman-Monteith method to calculate its reference evapotranspiration ET_0 for the period 1970-2016 for a total of 47 years. The Sliding T test was used to identify the breakpoint. Sensitivity Analysis and contribution rate analysis were also used to detect the meteorological elements in response to ET_0 at different altitudes. An insignificant increasing tendency of ET_0 was observed on the time scale. 1998 was a mutation point of the sequence, with a significant downward trend in 1970-1998 and a significantly upward trend after 1998. The ET_0 in partition Ⅰ(low altitude), Ⅱ(middle altitude) and Ⅲ(high altitude) increased first and then decreased with altitude. In the meteorological elements, the relative humidity(RH), daily average temperature(t), sunshine duration(S) and daily mean wind speed(WS) was the closest meteorological factors to ET_0. Among them, the trend of RH, S, WS was changed in 1998, while t maintained an increasing trend. The sensitivity analysis results showed that RH had the greatest response to ET_0 while S had the minimum. The contribution of WS, S, RH to the change of ET_0 turned in 1998 with a negative contribution in 1970-1998 and a positive contribution after 1998, while t was a positive contribution to the change in ET_0 all the time. In the regions below 3 000 m, the ET_0 was mainly affected by WS, while in those areas above 3 000 m remainly affected by t and RH. The results of this study will help to understand the response of meteorological elements to the changes of ET_0 so as to provide scientific basis for the water resources planning and management.
Reference evapotranspiration(ET_0), an indicator of global climate change, makes different responses to the meteorological variable at different altitudes. The present study, based on the basic data of 38 meteorological stations in different altitude areas in Sichuan province, investigated the attribution of the change of the daily ET_0 and used the FAO-56 Penman-Monteith method to calculate its reference evapotranspiration ET_0 for the period 1970-2016 for a total of 47 years. The Sliding T test was used to identify the breakpoint. Sensitivity Analysis and contribution rate analysis were also used to detect the meteorological elements in response to ET_0 at different altitudes. An insignificant increasing tendency of ET_0 was observed on the time scale. 1998 was a mutation point of the sequence, with a significant downward trend in 1970-1998 and a significantly upward trend after 1998. The ET_0 in partition Ⅰ(low altitude), Ⅱ(middle altitude) and Ⅲ(high altitude) increased first and then decreased with altitude. In the meteorological elements, the relative humidity(RH), daily average temperature(t), sunshine duration(S) and daily mean wind speed(WS) was the closest meteorological factors to ET_0. Among them, the trend of RH, S, WS was changed in 1998, while t maintained an increasing trend. The sensitivity analysis results showed that RH had the greatest response to ET_0 while S had the minimum. The contribution of WS, S, RH to the change of ET_0 turned in 1998 with a negative contribution in 1970-1998 and a positive contribution after 1998, while t was a positive contribution to the change in ET_0 all the time. In the regions below 3 000 m, the ET_0 was mainly affected by WS, while in those areas above 3 000 m remainly affected by t and RH. The results of this study will help to understand the response of meteorological elements to the changes of ET_0 so as to provide scientific basis for the water resources planning and management.
引文
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贺洁颖,马丽,张荣,2013.拉萨市蒸散量与海拔的关系研究[A]//中国气象学会.创新驱动发展提高气象灾害防御能力:S7应对气候变化与农业气象防灾减灾[C].中国气象学会:8.
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刘倪,夏伟,吴晓蔚,等,2009.几种参考作物蒸散量计算方法的比较[J].河北科技大学学报,30(1):17-24.
卢爱刚,何元庆,张忠林,等,2005.中国大陆对全球变暖响应的区域敏感性分析[J].冰川冻土(6):827-832.
刘晓英,李玉中,王庆锁,2006.几种基于温度的参考作物蒸散量计算方法的评价[J].农业工程学报,22(6):12-18.
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田鹏,2012.气候与土地利用变化对径流的影响研究[D].咸阳:西北农林科技大学.
涂安国,李英,聂小飞,莫名浩,等,2017.鄱阳湖流域参考作物蒸散量变化特征及其归因分析[J].生态环境学报,26(2):211-218.
张庆广,陈超,聂文志,2012.宁晋57?10年气温的变化特征分析[C].北京:中国气象学会.S3聚焦气候变化,探索低碳未来:5.
赵璐,梁川,崔宁博,等,2013.川中丘陵区参考作物蒸发蒸腾量近60年变化成因研究[J].水利学报,44(2):183-190.
CAI X L,WANG F Q,WU S L,2007.Analysis of Climate Change in Northern Shaanxi Plateau in Recent 42 Years[J].Meteorological Science and Technology,35(1):45-48.
FLATO G,MAROTZKE J,ABIODUN B,et al.,2013.Evaluation of climate models.In:climate change 2013:the physical science basis.Contribution of working group I to the fifth assessment report of the intergovernmental panel on climate change[J].Climate Change,(18):95-123.
GAO Z D,HE J S,DONG K B,et al.,2017.Trends in reference evapotranspiration and their causative factors in the West Liao River basin,China[J].Agricultural and Forest Meteorology,232:106-117.
HAN S J,XU D,WANG S L,2012.Decreasing potential evaporation trends in China from 1956 to 2005:accelerated in regions with significant agricultural influence?[J].Agricultural and forest meteorology,154-155:44-56.
JHAJHARIA D,DINPASHOH Y,KAHYA E,et al.,2014.Trends in temperature over Godavari river basin in southern peninsular India[J].International Journal of Climatology,34(5):1369-1384.
LI C,WU P T,LI X L,et al.,2017.Spatial and temporal evolution of climatic factors and its impacts on potential evapotranspiration in Loess Plateau of Northern Shaanxi,China[J].Science of the Total Environment,589:165-172.
LIU T G,LI L G,LAI J B,et al.,2016.Reference evapotranspiration change and its sensitivity to climate variables in southwest China[J].Theoretical&Applied Climatology,125(3-4):499-508.
LIU X M,LUO Y Z,ZHANG D,et al.,2011.Recent changes in pan-evaporation dynamics in China[J].Geophysical Research Letters,38(13):142-154.
MARTíP,GONZáLEZ-ALTOZANO P,LóPEZ-URREA R,et al.,2015.Modeling reference evapotranspiration with calculated targets.Assessment and implications[J].Agricultural Water Management,149:81-90.
MCCUUEN R H,1974.A sensitivity and error analysis CF procedures used for estimating evaporation 1[J].JAWRA Journal of the American Water Resources Association,10(3):486-497.
MCVICAR T R,RODERICK M L,DONOHUE R J,et al.,2012.Global review and synthesis of trends in observed terrestrial near-surface wind speeds:Implications for evaporation[J].Journal of Hydrology,416(3):182-205.
NING T T,LI Z,LIU W Z,et al.,2016.Evolution of potential evapotranspiration in the northern Loess Plateau of China:recent trends and climatic drivers[J].International Journal of Climatology,36(12):4019-4028.
PETERSON T C,GOLUBEV V S,GROISMAN P Y,1995.Evaporation losing its strength[J].Nature,377:687-688.
RODERICK M L,FARQUHAR G D,2002.The cause of decreased pan evaporation over the past 50 years[J].Science,298(5597):1410-1411.
SHAN N,SHI Z J,YANG X H,et al.,2015.Spatiotemporal trends of reference evapotranspiration and its driving factors in the Beijing-Tianjin Sand Source Control Project Region,China[J].Agricultural and forest meteorology,200:322-333.
SHAO Q,CAMPBELL N A,2015.Applications:Modelling trends in groundwater levels by segmented regression with constraints[J].Australian&New Zealand Journal of Statistics,44(2):129-141.
SHE D X,XIA J,ZHANG Y Y,2017.Changes in reference evapotranspiration and its driving factors in the middle reaches of Yellow River Basin,China[J].Science of the Total Environment,607-608:1151-1162.
WANG Z l,XIE P W,LAI C G,et al.,2017.Spatiotemporal variability of reference evapotranspiration and contributing climatic factors in China during 1961?2013[J].Journal of Hydrology,544:97-108.
WEVER L A,FLANGAN L B,CARLSON P J,2002.Seasonal and interannual variation in evapotranspiration,energy balance and surface conductance in a northern temperate grassland[J].Agricultural and Forest meteorology,112(1):31-49.
YE X C,LI X H,LIU J,et al.,2014.Variation of reference evapotranspiration and its contributing climatic factors in the Poyang Lake catchment,China[J].Hydrological Processes,28(25):6151-6162.
YIN Y H,WU S H,CHEN G,et al.,2010.Attribution analyses of potential evapotranspiration changes in China since the 1960s[J].Theoretical and applied climatology,101(1-2):19-28.
ZHANG Q,XU C Y,GEMMER M,et al.,2009.Changing properties of precipitation concentration in the Pearl River basin,China[J].Stochastic Environmental Research&Risk Assessment,23(3):377-385.
ZHANG Y,XIA J,SHE D X,2018.Spatiotemporal variation and statistical characteristic of extreme precipitation in the middle reaches of the Yellow River Basin during 1960?2013[J].Theoretical&Applied Climatology,(15):1-18.
郝振纯,安贵阳,王加虎,等,2013.淮河中上游参考作物腾发量趋势变化及其成因[J].生态环境学报,22(9):1528-1533.
贺洁颖,马丽,张荣,2013.拉萨市蒸散量与海拔的关系研究[A]//中国气象学会.创新驱动发展提高气象灾害防御能力:S7应对气候变化与农业气象防灾减灾[C].中国气象学会:8.
侯钦磊,2012.气候变化和LUCC对金钱河流域径流变化的影响[D].西安:西北大学.
刘倪,夏伟,吴晓蔚,等,2009.几种参考作物蒸散量计算方法的比较[J].河北科技大学学报,30(1):17-24.
卢爱刚,何元庆,张忠林,等,2005.中国大陆对全球变暖响应的区域敏感性分析[J].冰川冻土(6):827-832.
刘晓英,李玉中,王庆锁,2006.几种基于温度的参考作物蒸散量计算方法的评价[J].农业工程学报,22(6):12-18.
任国玉,郭军,徐铭志,等,2005.近50年中国地面气候变化基本特征[J].气象学报,63(6):948-952.
田辉,文军,马耀明,等,2009.夏季黑河流域蒸散发量卫星遥感估算研究[J].水科学进展,20(1):18-24.
田鹏,2012.气候与土地利用变化对径流的影响研究[D].咸阳:西北农林科技大学.
涂安国,李英,聂小飞,莫名浩,等,2017.鄱阳湖流域参考作物蒸散量变化特征及其归因分析[J].生态环境学报,26(2):211-218.
张庆广,陈超,聂文志,2012.宁晋57?10年气温的变化特征分析[C].北京:中国气象学会.S3聚焦气候变化,探索低碳未来:5.
赵璐,梁川,崔宁博,等,2013.川中丘陵区参考作物蒸发蒸腾量近60年变化成因研究[J].水利学报,44(2):183-190.