2005-2017年陕西省咸阳市乙型肝炎流行趋势分析及预测模型的建立
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摘要
目的对咸阳市2005—2017年乙型肝炎(乙肝)病例的报告情况进行分析总结,掌握咸阳市乙肝的流行规律,通过建立合适的预测模型,对咸阳市2018年的乙肝疫情情况进行预测,以便采取适当的防控措施。方法收集2005—2017年中国疾病预防控制信息系统中咸阳市的乙肝报告病例个案资料,采用描述性流行病学方法对乙肝的疫情情况进行归纳分析,运用SAS 9.2软件的时间序列预测系统建立咸阳市乙肝疫情最佳预警模型,并采用2018年的疫情资料对该模型进行验证。结果 2005—2017年咸阳市共报告乙肝病例48 184例,其中男性23 716例,女性24 468例,男女性别比约为1∶1;其中临床诊断病例9 325例(19.35%),确诊病例38 859例(80.65%)。年龄集中在20～60岁之间,职业以农民为主,报告病例数无明显季节性。建立了咸阳市乙肝的月报告疫情预警系统,咸阳市2005—2017年乙肝的月报告数接近Log Winters Method-Addictive模型趋势。结论预测模型显示咸阳市2018年乙肝的报告病例数较往年呈下降趋势,但仍需关注重点人群的乙肝疫苗查漏补种工作,做好主动预防工作,以控制乙肝的发病率。
Objective To analyze the prevalence of hepatitis B in Xianyang of Shaanxi province from 2005 to 2017, and establish a suitable prediction model for hepatitis B in Xianyang in 2018. Methods The data of reported cases of hepatitis B in Xianyang from 2005 to 2017 were collected. Descriptive epidemiological method was used to analyze the prevalence of hepatitis B and the time series prediction system of SAS 9.2 software was used to establish the best prediction model of hepatitis B incidence in Xianyang. The model was verified by using the incidence data of hepatitis B in Xianyang in 2018.Results A total of 48 184 cases of hepatitis B were reported in Xianyang from 2005 to 2017, including 9 325 clinically diagnosed cases(19.35%) and 38 859 laboratory confirmed cases(80.65%), among these cases, 23 716 occurred in males and24 468 occurred in females, with a sex ratio of approximately 1∶1. The cases were distributed in people aged 20–60 years.Most cases were farmers, and there was no obvious seasonality. The SAS 9.2 software time series forecasting system was used to establish the monthly incidence prediction system of hepatitis B in Xianyang. The best prediction model established for the monthly incidence of hepatitis B in Xianyang from 2005 to 2017 was Log Winters Method-Addictive model. Conclusion The result of the prediction indicated that he reported cases of hepatitis B would decline in Xianyang in 2018. However, it is still necessary to strengthen the hepatitis B vaccination in populations at high risk is still needed to reduce the incidence of hepatitis B.
Objective To analyze the prevalence of hepatitis B in Xianyang of Shaanxi province from 2005 to 2017, and establish a suitable prediction model for hepatitis B in Xianyang in 2018. Methods The data of reported cases of hepatitis B in Xianyang from 2005 to 2017 were collected. Descriptive epidemiological method was used to analyze the prevalence of hepatitis B and the time series prediction system of SAS 9.2 software was used to establish the best prediction model of hepatitis B incidence in Xianyang. The model was verified by using the incidence data of hepatitis B in Xianyang in 2018.Results A total of 48 184 cases of hepatitis B were reported in Xianyang from 2005 to 2017, including 9 325 clinically diagnosed cases(19.35%) and 38 859 laboratory confirmed cases(80.65%), among these cases, 23 716 occurred in males and24 468 occurred in females, with a sex ratio of approximately 1∶1. The cases were distributed in people aged 20–60 years.Most cases were farmers, and there was no obvious seasonality. The SAS 9.2 software time series forecasting system was used to establish the monthly incidence prediction system of hepatitis B in Xianyang. The best prediction model established for the monthly incidence of hepatitis B in Xianyang from 2005 to 2017 was Log Winters Method-Addictive model. Conclusion The result of the prediction indicated that he reported cases of hepatitis B would decline in Xianyang in 2018. However, it is still necessary to strengthen the hepatitis B vaccination in populations at high risk is still needed to reduce the incidence of hepatitis B.
引文
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[14]赵立华,靳峰,陈晓颖,等.2005-2014年宁夏丙型肝炎流行特征分析及发病趋势预测[J].宁夏医科大学学报,2016,38(11):1270-1272, 1277. DOI:10.16050/j.cnki.issn1674-6309.2016.11.012.Zhao LH, Jin F, Chen XY, et al. Epidemiological characteristics and incidence trend of hepatitis C during 2005-2014 in Ningxia[J]. J Ningxia Med Univ, 2016, 38(11):1270-1272,1277. DOI:10.16050/j.cnki.issn1674-6309.2016.11.012.
[15]许晶瑶,谢韬,姚文清.发展中国家乙型肝炎流行、预防和控制[J].中国公共卫生,2016, 32(1):31-34. DOI:10.11847/zgggws2016-32-01-10.Xu JY, Xie T, Yao WQ. Prevalence, prevention and control of hepatitis B in developing countries[J]. Chin Public Health,2016, 32(1):31-34. DOI:10.11847/zgggws2016-32-01-10.
[2]孙海泉,肖革新,郭莹,等.中国2008—2012年丙肝流行规律及空间聚集性分析[J].中国公共卫生,2014, 30(3):286-289.DOI:10.11847/zgggws2014-30-03-10.Sun HQ, Xiao GX, Guo Y, et al. Spatial clustering and changing trend of hepatitis C prevalence during 2008-2012 in China[J].Chin J Public Health, 2014, 30(3):286-289. DOI:10.11847/zgggws2014-30-03-10.
[3]何界,高连.2005—2012年广西横县乙型肝炎流行特征与防控策略分析[J].中外健康文摘,2013(52):23-25.He J, Gao L. The analysis to epidemic characteristics and the prevention&control strategies of hepatitis B in Hengxian Guangxi during 2005-2012[J]. World Health Digest, 2013(52):23-25.
[4]高建华,苏宁,黄若刚.北京市2010—2015年病毒性肝炎流行特征分析[J].国际病毒学杂志,2016, 23(5):308-310. DOI:10.3 760/cma.j.issn.1673-4092.2016.05.006.Gao JH, Su N,Huang RG. Epidemiological analysis of viral hepatitis in Beijing from 2010 to 2015[J]. Int J Virol, 2016,23(5):308-310. DOI:10.3760/cma.j.issn.1673-4092.2016.05.006.
[5]张冬娟,洪荣涛,郑金凤,等.福建省2004-2013年乙型肝炎特征分析[J].中国预防医学杂志,2015,16(1):18-22. DOI:10.16506/j.1009-6639.2015.01.005.Zhang DJ, Hong RT, Zheng JF, et al. Epidemiological features of hepatitis B in Fujian from 2004 to 2013[J]. Chin J Prev Med,2015, 16(1):18-22. DOI:10.16506/j.1009-6639.2015.01.005.
[6]陈银苗,李平,卫沛楠,等.天津市武清区2005—2015年病毒性肝炎流行特征分析[J].医学信息,2017, 30(2):98-99.DOI:10.3969/j.issn.1006-1959.2017.02.060.Chen YM, Li P, Wei PN, et al. Epidemiological characteristics of viral hepatitis in Wuqing district of Tianjin from 2005 to 2015[J].J Med Inf, 2017, 30(2):98-99. DOI:10.3969/j.issn.1006-1959.2017.02.060.
[7]王昕,程小雯,房师松,等.指数平滑模型在流感样病例预测中的应用[J].中国热带医学,2011,11(8):938-939. DOI:10.13604/j.cnki.46-1064/r. 2011.08.023.Wang X, Cheng XW, Fang SS, et al. Application of exponential smoothing model in forecasting influenza incidence[J]. Chin Trop Med, 2011, 11(8):938-939. DOI:10.13604/j.cnki.46-1064/r.2011.08.023.
[8]邓秋云,钟革,甘明,等.广西2009—2013年乙型病毒性肝炎流行病学分析[J].中国热带医学,2014, 14(12):1483-1485.DOI:10.13604/j.cnki.46-1064/r.2014.12.021.Deng QY, Zhong G, Gan M, et al. Epidemiological analysis of hepatitis B infection in Guangxi during 2009-2013[J]. Chin Trop Med, 2014, 14(12):1483-1485. DOI:10.13604/j.cnki.46-1064/r.2014.12.021.
[9]马晓梅,刘颖,杨梦利,等.手足口病月发病率ARIMA乘积季节模型预测探讨[J].现代预防医学,2017, 44(9):1541-1544,1560.Ma XM, Liu Y, Yang ML, et al. Multiple seasonal ARIMA model in prediction of the monthly incidence of the hand, foot and mouth disease[J].Mod Prev Med, 2017, 44(9):1541-1544,1560.
[10]王霆,卢立云,王玉美.2006—2014年淄博市临淄区乙型病毒性肝炎流行特征分析[J].现代预防医学,2016, 43(2):223-226.Wang T, Lu LY, Wang YM. Analysis of the epidemiological characteristics of hepatitis B in Linzi district in Zibo city between2006 and 2014[J]. Mod Prev Med, 2016, 43(2):223-226.
[11]王香,佘芳芳,郑霄雁.2011—2013年福州市乙型肝炎流行病学特征分析[J].热带医学杂志,2015,15(1):111-113.Wang X, She FF, Zheng XY. Epidemiological analysis of hepatitis B from 2011 to 2013 in Fuzhou city[J]. J Trop Med, 2015,15(1):111-113.
[12]王丽萍,曹怡,曾令佳,等.全国基层医疗机构传染病诊断报告现状分析[J].疾病监测,2014, 29(3):176-180. DOI:10.3784/j.issn. 1003-9961.2014.03.004.Wang LP, Cao Y, Zeng LJ, et al. Diagnosis and reporting of communicable diseases in basic medical institutions in China[J].Dis Surveill, 2014, 29(3):176-180. DOI:10.3784/j.issn.1003-9961.2014.03.004.
[13]谭楚生,谭详永,郭世成,等.江西2005-2013年急性乙肝流行特征分析[J].中国公共卫生,2016, 32(1):18-22. DOI:10.11847/zgggws2016-32-01-06.Tan CS, Tan XY, Guo SC, et al. Incidence of acute hepatitis B in Jiangxi province, 2005-2013[J]. Chin Public Health, 2016,32(1):18-22. DOI:10.11847/zgggws2016-32-01-06.
[14]赵立华,靳峰,陈晓颖,等.2005-2014年宁夏丙型肝炎流行特征分析及发病趋势预测[J].宁夏医科大学学报,2016,38(11):1270-1272, 1277. DOI:10.16050/j.cnki.issn1674-6309.2016.11.012.Zhao LH, Jin F, Chen XY, et al. Epidemiological characteristics and incidence trend of hepatitis C during 2005-2014 in Ningxia[J]. J Ningxia Med Univ, 2016, 38(11):1270-1272,1277. DOI:10.16050/j.cnki.issn1674-6309.2016.11.012.
[15]许晶瑶,谢韬,姚文清.发展中国家乙型肝炎流行、预防和控制[J].中国公共卫生,2016, 32(1):31-34. DOI:10.11847/zgggws2016-32-01-10.Xu JY, Xie T, Yao WQ. Prevalence, prevention and control of hepatitis B in developing countries[J]. Chin Public Health,2016, 32(1):31-34. DOI:10.11847/zgggws2016-32-01-10.