基于灰色层次分析法的硝基胍喷雾干燥系统风险评价
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摘要
硝基胍是易燃、易爆、有毒性物质,其喷雾干燥过程中固有风险较高,因此开发硝基胍喷雾干燥系统运行的风险评价技术、规范监管系统安全作业条件、完善防护设施并提高该系统的安全性非常必要。首先通过研究硝基胍喷雾干燥系统的结构、工艺流程及运行情况,结合层次分析法建立了硝基胍喷雾干燥系统风险评价指标体系;再通过指标间两两比较和方根法确定各评价指标的权重值;最后结合专业评价人员的分析结果,运用灰色层次分析法确定各指标的评价权向量,并对硝基胍喷雾干燥系统运行风险进行综合评价。评价结果表明:建立的评价指标体系以及确定的各指标权重可靠,且由指标权重、灰色评价矩阵及赋值向量计算得到该系统的综合评价值为74.77,根据定义的安全性等级,目标硝基胍喷雾干燥系统的现有运行安全等级为中等,应加强安全防护和监管。
Nitroguanidine is inflammable,explosive and toxic,so the process of nitroguanidine spray drying is risky.Therefore,it is quite necessary to develop the risk assessment technology of the system operation,standardize supervising system safety operation conditions,optimize protection facilities and enhance the security of nitro guanidine spray drying system.Firstly,by studying the structure,technological process and operation of the nitroguanidine spray drying system,this paper establishes the evaluation index system for risk assessment of nitroguanidine spray drying system by the analytic hierarchy process method.Then,the paper determines the weight value of each index by pairwise comparison and square root method.Finally,combined with the analysis results of professional evaluation,the paper applies the Gray Analytic Hierarchy Process(GAHP)method to determining the weight vector of each index,and comprehensively assess the operation risk of the nitroguanidine spray drying system.The evaluation results indicate that the evaluation index system and each index weight are reliable.Meanwhile,the comprehensive evaluation value of the spray drying system is 74.77 which is calculated by the index weight,gray evaluation matrix and valuation vector.According to the definition by the paper,the security level of the spray drying system is medium,which should be strengthened in security protection and supervision.
Nitroguanidine is inflammable,explosive and toxic,so the process of nitroguanidine spray drying is risky.Therefore,it is quite necessary to develop the risk assessment technology of the system operation,standardize supervising system safety operation conditions,optimize protection facilities and enhance the security of nitro guanidine spray drying system.Firstly,by studying the structure,technological process and operation of the nitroguanidine spray drying system,this paper establishes the evaluation index system for risk assessment of nitroguanidine spray drying system by the analytic hierarchy process method.Then,the paper determines the weight value of each index by pairwise comparison and square root method.Finally,combined with the analysis results of professional evaluation,the paper applies the Gray Analytic Hierarchy Process(GAHP)method to determining the weight vector of each index,and comprehensively assess the operation risk of the nitroguanidine spray drying system.The evaluation results indicate that the evaluation index system and each index weight are reliable.Meanwhile,the comprehensive evaluation value of the spray drying system is 74.77 which is calculated by the index weight,gray evaluation matrix and valuation vector.According to the definition by the paper,the security level of the spray drying system is medium,which should be strengthened in security protection and supervision.
引文
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[3]姜欣明,罗兴柏,张玉令,等.基于梯形模糊综合分析法的弹药维修安全风险评估[J].数学的实践与认识,2011,41(21):183-193.
[4]王金亮.BZA-2评价方法的改进及应用研究[D].天津:天津理工大学,2011.
[5]付强,马忠亮,高可正,等.变燃速发射药连续化生产模糊综合评价模型研究[J].安全与环境学报,2010,10(1):197-200.
[6]青勤,黄智勇,金国锋,等.固体推进剂粉尘爆炸危险性的模糊综合评价[J].安全与环境工程,2009,16(4):58-61.
[7]Feng L,Zhu X D,Sun X.Assessing coastal reclamation suitability based on a fuzzy-AHP comprehensive evaluation framework:A case study of Lianyungang,China[J].Marine Pollution Bulletin,2014,89(1/2):102-111.
[8]肖锦绣,郭进,王梓丞,等.基于灰色层次分析法的CBTC系统风险综合评价[J].城市轨道交通研究,2016,19(2):128-133.
[9]胡毅亭,陈网桦.安全系统工程[M].南京:南京大学出版社,2009.
[10]轩永波,黄长强,王勇,等.基于灰色层次分析法的空间武器作战效能评估[J].空军工程大学学报(自然科学版),2011,12(2):32-37.
[11]Wang Z W,Lei T Z,Chang X,et al.Optimization of a biomass briquette fuel system based on gray relational analysis and analytic hierarchy process:A study using cornstalks in China[J].Applied Energy,2015,157(1):523-532.
[12]刘博,王煊军,黄智勇,等.基于灰色层次分析法的偏二甲肼贮库风险评价[J].安全与环境工程,2011,18(5):87-92.
[13]Sahoo S,Dhar A,Kar A.Environmental vulnerability assessment using gray analytic hierarchy process based model[J].Environmental Impact Assessment Review,2016,56:145-154.
[14]周伟杰,党耀国,熊萍萍,等.区间灰数的灰色变权与定权聚类模型[J].系统工程理论与实践,2013,33(10):2590-2595.
[15]Xu G,Yang Y P,Lu S Y,et al.Comprehensive evaluation of coal-fired power plants based on gray relational analysis and analytic hierarchy process[J].Energy Policy,2011,39(5):2343-2351.
[16]Li M K,Liu Y K,Peng M J,et al.The decision making method of task arrangement based on analytic hierarchy process for nuclear safety in radiation field[J].Progress in Nuclear Energy,2016,93:318-326.
[17]郭九霞,黎云建,杨昌其,等.基于灰色层次分析法的通用航空空管运行保障分类[J].安全与环境工程,2016,23(2):162-166.
[18]Yang T,Liu J L,Chen Q Y.Assessment of plain river ecosystem function based on improved gray system model and analytic hierarchy process for the Fuyang River,Haihe River Basin,China[J].Ecological Modeling,2013,268:37-47.
[19]王起全.安全评价[M].2版.北京:化学工业出版社,2015.
[20]辛越.基于GEM-AHP-GMS模型的流域水源涵养建设研究[D].大连:大连理工大学,2015.
[21]Wang Q X,Wang H,Qi Z Q.An application of nonlinear fuzzy analytic hierarchy process in safety evaluation of coal mine[J].Safety Science,2016,86:78-87.