改革开放以来铜行业发展历程及消费预测
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摘要
新中国成立70年,特别是改革开放以来,我国有色金属工业持续快速发展,整体实力步入新时代。本文以改革开放为起点,总结归纳40年来我国铜工业发展取得的成绩,并在此基础上将铜市场供需情况与GDP和人口的发展进行相关性分析,推测出我国铜消费峰值为1200万t,预计将在2023～2025年左右出现。我国将长期维持铜资源的高需求量,国内资源的保障程度很低,在鼓励企业并购海外矿山的同时,加大国内找矿力度、做好铜资源战略储备需要引起更高的重视。
After establishment of People's Republic of China over 70 years, especially since it's reform and opening up, China's Nonferrous Metals Industries sustainable and developed rapidly, entering a New Era. This paper takes the Reform and Opening up as the starting point, summarize the achievements of China's copper industry in the past 40 years, comparing the relationship between copper's supply and demand with China's GDP growth and population development. This paper speculates that the peak copper consumption in China is 12 million tons, which is expected to appear around 2023-2025. China will maintain high demand for copper resources for a long time. However, the level of domestic resources security is very low. We need to encourage enterprises to acquire overseas mines, increase domestic exploration investment and strategic reserve of copper.
After establishment of People's Republic of China over 70 years, especially since it's reform and opening up, China's Nonferrous Metals Industries sustainable and developed rapidly, entering a New Era. This paper takes the Reform and Opening up as the starting point, summarize the achievements of China's copper industry in the past 40 years, comparing the relationship between copper's supply and demand with China's GDP growth and population development. This paper speculates that the peak copper consumption in China is 12 million tons, which is expected to appear around 2023-2025. China will maintain high demand for copper resources for a long time. However, the level of domestic resources security is very low. We need to encourage enterprises to acquire overseas mines, increase domestic exploration investment and strategic reserve of copper.
引文
[1]国土资源部.全国矿产资源储量通报(内部资料),1978~2017.
[2]国家统计局.中国统计年鉴,1978~2017.
[3]U.S.Geological Survey.World Metal Statistics.March 2017.World Bureau of Metal Statistics.
[4]标普财智(S&P Global Market Intelligence).https://platform.mi.spglobal.com.
[5]中国社会科学院.人口与劳动绿皮书-中国人口与劳动问题报告No.29,2019年1月.
[6]Ayman Elshkaki,Graedel TE,Luca Ciacci,Barbara K.Reck Copper demand,Supply,and associated energy use to 2050[J].Global Environmental Change,2016(39):305-315.
[7]Lawrence D.Meinert,Gilpin R.Robinson Jr.and Nedal T.Nassar Mineral Resources:Reserves,Peak Production and Future[J].Reources,2016(5).
[2]国家统计局.中国统计年鉴,1978~2017.
[3]U.S.Geological Survey.World Metal Statistics.March 2017.World Bureau of Metal Statistics.
[4]标普财智(S&P Global Market Intelligence).https://platform.mi.spglobal.com.
[5]中国社会科学院.人口与劳动绿皮书-中国人口与劳动问题报告No.29,2019年1月.
[6]Ayman Elshkaki,Graedel TE,Luca Ciacci,Barbara K.Reck Copper demand,Supply,and associated energy use to 2050[J].Global Environmental Change,2016(39):305-315.
[7]Lawrence D.Meinert,Gilpin R.Robinson Jr.and Nedal T.Nassar Mineral Resources:Reserves,Peak Production and Future[J].Reources,2016(5).