我国海绵城市智慧化管理模式探究
|
摘要
海绵城市建设在中国尚处于起步阶段,基于数据科学方法的海绵城市定量研究在国内较为少见。本文结合人工智能方法,尝试性扩展现有的海绵城市管理控制指标体系,构建针对海绵城市管理系统的水环境径流状态识别分类器模型,并利用部分城市累年气象数据进行模型的训练与预测。结果表明,分类器模型对各城市累年气象数据具有较好的拟合效果,基于扩展的管理控制目标原则,分解现有控制指标后的分类结果,能够对径流控制指标实现较好的拟合,并在特定指标组合情况下具有较好的水环境径流预测能力。海绵城市的智慧化管理能够提高优质生态环境的供给效率,助力中国生态供给侧结构性改革,进而推动中国区域经济实现可持续健康发展。未来中国海绵城市建设应该树立新发展意识、提高管理模式创新意识、坚持因地制宜原则和推动智慧化信息化建设。
Construction of sponge city is still in its infancy in China,and quantitative research on sponge city based on data science method is rare in China.Combined with the artificial intelligence method,this paper,by expanding the existing sponge city management and control index system,innovates the sponge city management mode,and builds the water environment runoff status recognition model for sponge city management system,for its training and prediction the perennial meteorological data of some cities in China is used.The results show that the classifier model has a good fitting effect on the annual meteorological data of each city,and the classification results after decomposing the existing control indexes based on the principle of extended management and control objectives can achieve a better fitting of the runoff control indexes,and have a better ability to predict the runoff of water environment under the specific combination of indexes.The smart management of sponge city can improve the supply efficiency of high-quality ecological environment,help China′s ecological supply side structural reform,and then promote the sustainable and healthy development of China′s regional economy.In the future,sponge city construction in China should set up new development consciousness,improve management mode innovation consciousness,adhere to the principle of adapting measures to local conditions and promote intelligent informatization construction.
Construction of sponge city is still in its infancy in China,and quantitative research on sponge city based on data science method is rare in China.Combined with the artificial intelligence method,this paper,by expanding the existing sponge city management and control index system,innovates the sponge city management mode,and builds the water environment runoff status recognition model for sponge city management system,for its training and prediction the perennial meteorological data of some cities in China is used.The results show that the classifier model has a good fitting effect on the annual meteorological data of each city,and the classification results after decomposing the existing control indexes based on the principle of extended management and control objectives can achieve a better fitting of the runoff control indexes,and have a better ability to predict the runoff of water environment under the specific combination of indexes.The smart management of sponge city can improve the supply efficiency of high-quality ecological environment,help China′s ecological supply side structural reform,and then promote the sustainable and healthy development of China′s regional economy.In the future,sponge city construction in China should set up new development consciousness,improve management mode innovation consciousness,adhere to the principle of adapting measures to local conditions and promote intelligent informatization construction.
引文
[1]郑思齐,万广华,孙伟增,等.公众诉求与城市环境治理[J].管理世界,2013(6):72-84.
[2]吴丹洁,詹圣泽,李友华,等.中国特色海绵城市的新兴趋势与实践研究[J].中国软科学,2016(1):79-97.
[3]DIETZ M E.Low Impact Development Practices:A Review of Current Research and Recommendations for Future Directions[J].Water Air and Soil Pollution,2007,186(1-4):351-363.
[4]车伍,吕放放,李俊奇,等.发达国家典型雨洪管理体系及启示[J].中国给水排水,2009(20):12-17.
[5]BOCKHORN B,KLINT K E S,LOCATELLI L,et al.Factors Affecting the Hydraulic Performance of Infiltration Based SUDS in Clay[J].Urban Water Journal,2017,14(2):9.
[6]JATOESPINO D,CHARLESWORTH S M,BAYON JR,et al.Rainfall-Runoff Simulations to Assess the Potential of SUDS for Mitigating Flooding in Highly Urbanized Catchments[J].International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health,2016,13(1):149.
[7]马海良,王若梅,訾永成.海绵城市的特征解读和建设路径研究[J].科技管理研究,2016(22):184-189.
[8]于开红,桂河清.中国特色海绵城市的马克思主义理论基础[J].财经科学,2017(12):84-96.
[9]刘湘溶.经济发展方式的生态化与我国的生态文明建设[J].南京社会科学,2009(6):33-37.
[10]郭立伟,沈满洪.生态文明建设与区域经济协调发展的政策评析[J].经济问题探索,2010(12):89-95.
[11]董淑秋,韩志刚.基于“生态海绵城市”构建的雨水利用规划研究[J].城市发展研究,2011(12):37-41.
[12]宋芳晓,张海荣.我国海绵城市建设管理的问题和策略探析[J].城市发展研究,2016(10):99-104.
[13]甄峰,秦萧.大数据在智慧城市研究与规划中的应用[J].国际城市规划,2014(6):44-50.
[14]方世南,戴仁璋.海绵城市建设的问题与对策[J].中国特色社会主义研究,2017(1):88-92.
[15]徐君,任腾飞.我国海绵城市建设面对供给侧改革的冷思考及新路径[J].经济问题探索,2018(4):99-105.
[16]仇保兴.海绵城市(LID)的内涵、途径与展望[J].建设科技,2015(1):11-18.
[17]WANG X H,SHUSTER W,PAL C,et al.Low Impact Development Design-Integrating Suitability Analysis and Site Planning for Reduction of Post-Development Stormwater Quantity[J].Sustainability,2010,2(8):2467-2482.
[18]AHIABLAME L M,ENGEL B A,CHAUBEY I.Effectiveness of Low Impact Development Practices in Two Urbanized Watersheds:Retrofitting with Rain Barrel/Cistern and Porous Pavement[J].Journal of Environmental Management,2013,119(Complete):151-161.
[19]KONG F,BAN Y,JAMES P,et al.Modeling Stormwater Management at the City District Level in Response to Changes in Land Use and Low Impact Development[J].Environmental Modelling&Software,2017,95:132-142.
[20]GONCALVES M L R,ZISCHG J,RAU S,et al.Modeling the Effects of Introducing Low Impact Development in a Tropical City:A Case Study from Joinville,Brazil[J].Sustainability,2018,10(3):728.
[21]中华人民共和国住房和城乡建设部.海绵城市建设技术指南---低影响开发雨水系统构建(试行)[S/OL].[2014-10-22].[2018-09-16].http:∥www.mohurd.gov.cn/wjfb/201411/t20141102_219465.html.
[22]杨学军,徐振强.智慧城市背景下推进智慧环保战略及其顶层设计路径的探讨[J].城市发展研究,2014(6):22-25.
[23]宋马林,杜倩倩,金培振.供给侧结构性改革视阈下的环境经济与自然资源管理---环境经济与自然资源管理学术研讨会综述[J].经济研究,2016(4):188-192.
[24]向尚,邹凯,蒋知义,等.基于随机森林的智慧城市信息安全风险预测[J].中国管理科学,2016(S1):266-270.
[25]俞孔坚,李迪华,袁弘,等.“海绵城市”理论与实践[J].城市规划,2015(6):26-36.
[26]康丹,叶青海.绵城市年径流总量控制目标取值和分解研究[J].中国给水排水,2015(19):126-129.
[27]FEDER M,PHOENIX V,HAIG S,et al.Influence of Biofilms on Heavy Metal Immobilization in Sustainable Urban Drainage Systems(SUDS)[J].Environmental Technology,2015,36(21):2803-2814.
[28]王和意,刘敏,刘巧梅,等.城市降雨径流非点源污染分析与研究进展[J].城市环境与城市生态,2003(6):283-285.
[29]LIU Y,LUND R B,NORDONE S K,et al.A Bayesian Spatio-Temporal Model for Forecasting the Prevalence of Antibodies to Ehrlichia Species in Domestic Dogs within the Contiguous United States[J].Parasites&Vectors,2017,10(1):138.
[30]WEBB J A,KOSTER W M,STUART I G,et al.Make the Most of the Data You’ve Got:Bayesian Models and a Surrogate Species Approach to Assessing Benefits of Upstream Migration Flows for the Endangered Australian Grayling[J].Environmental Management,2018,61(3):398-407.
[31]REN G,RAFIEE J,ARYANA S A,et al.A Bayesian Model Selection Analysis of Equilibrium and Nonequilibrium Models for Multiphase Flow in Porous Media[J].International Journal of Multiphase Flow,2017,89:313-320.
[32]汪朝辉,赵登忠,李喆.农业面源污染与不同环境因子的耦合机理研究[J].人民长江,2011(10):55-59.
[33]孟德娟,莫兴国.气候变化对不同气候区流域年径流影响的识别[J].地理科学进展,2013(4):587-594.
[34]范金金,刘鹏.朴素贝叶斯分类器的独立性假设研究[J].计算机工程与应用,2008(34):139-141.
(1)新华网:http:∥www.xinhuanet.com/politics/2015-12/22/c_1117545528.htm,2015年12月23日。
(1)依据《国务院办公厅关于推进海绵城市建设的指导意见》中的定义。
(1)进行分类条件概率比较之前,为避免特定类别中的特征取值与类别取值高度一致情况的出现,应进行拉普拉斯修正。
(1)四个城市的海绵城市建设相关内容源自作者整理的相关报道,受篇幅限制,媒体信息来源未列出。
(1)事实上,范金金[34]的研究表明,朴素贝叶斯分类器特征之间是否满足独立性假设与分类器模型的表现没有必然联系,分类器模型能否准确识别是分类器模型的重要评价标准。出于研究严谨性的考虑,本文依然进行了特征独立性检验。
[2]吴丹洁,詹圣泽,李友华,等.中国特色海绵城市的新兴趋势与实践研究[J].中国软科学,2016(1):79-97.
[3]DIETZ M E.Low Impact Development Practices:A Review of Current Research and Recommendations for Future Directions[J].Water Air and Soil Pollution,2007,186(1-4):351-363.
[4]车伍,吕放放,李俊奇,等.发达国家典型雨洪管理体系及启示[J].中国给水排水,2009(20):12-17.
[5]BOCKHORN B,KLINT K E S,LOCATELLI L,et al.Factors Affecting the Hydraulic Performance of Infiltration Based SUDS in Clay[J].Urban Water Journal,2017,14(2):9.
[6]JATOESPINO D,CHARLESWORTH S M,BAYON JR,et al.Rainfall-Runoff Simulations to Assess the Potential of SUDS for Mitigating Flooding in Highly Urbanized Catchments[J].International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health,2016,13(1):149.
[7]马海良,王若梅,訾永成.海绵城市的特征解读和建设路径研究[J].科技管理研究,2016(22):184-189.
[8]于开红,桂河清.中国特色海绵城市的马克思主义理论基础[J].财经科学,2017(12):84-96.
[9]刘湘溶.经济发展方式的生态化与我国的生态文明建设[J].南京社会科学,2009(6):33-37.
[10]郭立伟,沈满洪.生态文明建设与区域经济协调发展的政策评析[J].经济问题探索,2010(12):89-95.
[11]董淑秋,韩志刚.基于“生态海绵城市”构建的雨水利用规划研究[J].城市发展研究,2011(12):37-41.
[12]宋芳晓,张海荣.我国海绵城市建设管理的问题和策略探析[J].城市发展研究,2016(10):99-104.
[13]甄峰,秦萧.大数据在智慧城市研究与规划中的应用[J].国际城市规划,2014(6):44-50.
[14]方世南,戴仁璋.海绵城市建设的问题与对策[J].中国特色社会主义研究,2017(1):88-92.
[15]徐君,任腾飞.我国海绵城市建设面对供给侧改革的冷思考及新路径[J].经济问题探索,2018(4):99-105.
[16]仇保兴.海绵城市(LID)的内涵、途径与展望[J].建设科技,2015(1):11-18.
[17]WANG X H,SHUSTER W,PAL C,et al.Low Impact Development Design-Integrating Suitability Analysis and Site Planning for Reduction of Post-Development Stormwater Quantity[J].Sustainability,2010,2(8):2467-2482.
[18]AHIABLAME L M,ENGEL B A,CHAUBEY I.Effectiveness of Low Impact Development Practices in Two Urbanized Watersheds:Retrofitting with Rain Barrel/Cistern and Porous Pavement[J].Journal of Environmental Management,2013,119(Complete):151-161.
[19]KONG F,BAN Y,JAMES P,et al.Modeling Stormwater Management at the City District Level in Response to Changes in Land Use and Low Impact Development[J].Environmental Modelling&Software,2017,95:132-142.
[20]GONCALVES M L R,ZISCHG J,RAU S,et al.Modeling the Effects of Introducing Low Impact Development in a Tropical City:A Case Study from Joinville,Brazil[J].Sustainability,2018,10(3):728.
[21]中华人民共和国住房和城乡建设部.海绵城市建设技术指南---低影响开发雨水系统构建(试行)[S/OL].[2014-10-22].[2018-09-16].http:∥www.mohurd.gov.cn/wjfb/201411/t20141102_219465.html.
[22]杨学军,徐振强.智慧城市背景下推进智慧环保战略及其顶层设计路径的探讨[J].城市发展研究,2014(6):22-25.
[23]宋马林,杜倩倩,金培振.供给侧结构性改革视阈下的环境经济与自然资源管理---环境经济与自然资源管理学术研讨会综述[J].经济研究,2016(4):188-192.
[24]向尚,邹凯,蒋知义,等.基于随机森林的智慧城市信息安全风险预测[J].中国管理科学,2016(S1):266-270.
[25]俞孔坚,李迪华,袁弘,等.“海绵城市”理论与实践[J].城市规划,2015(6):26-36.
[26]康丹,叶青海.绵城市年径流总量控制目标取值和分解研究[J].中国给水排水,2015(19):126-129.
[27]FEDER M,PHOENIX V,HAIG S,et al.Influence of Biofilms on Heavy Metal Immobilization in Sustainable Urban Drainage Systems(SUDS)[J].Environmental Technology,2015,36(21):2803-2814.
[28]王和意,刘敏,刘巧梅,等.城市降雨径流非点源污染分析与研究进展[J].城市环境与城市生态,2003(6):283-285.
[29]LIU Y,LUND R B,NORDONE S K,et al.A Bayesian Spatio-Temporal Model for Forecasting the Prevalence of Antibodies to Ehrlichia Species in Domestic Dogs within the Contiguous United States[J].Parasites&Vectors,2017,10(1):138.
[30]WEBB J A,KOSTER W M,STUART I G,et al.Make the Most of the Data You’ve Got:Bayesian Models and a Surrogate Species Approach to Assessing Benefits of Upstream Migration Flows for the Endangered Australian Grayling[J].Environmental Management,2018,61(3):398-407.
[31]REN G,RAFIEE J,ARYANA S A,et al.A Bayesian Model Selection Analysis of Equilibrium and Nonequilibrium Models for Multiphase Flow in Porous Media[J].International Journal of Multiphase Flow,2017,89:313-320.
[32]汪朝辉,赵登忠,李喆.农业面源污染与不同环境因子的耦合机理研究[J].人民长江,2011(10):55-59.
[33]孟德娟,莫兴国.气候变化对不同气候区流域年径流影响的识别[J].地理科学进展,2013(4):587-594.
[34]范金金,刘鹏.朴素贝叶斯分类器的独立性假设研究[J].计算机工程与应用,2008(34):139-141.
(1)新华网:http:∥www.xinhuanet.com/politics/2015-12/22/c_1117545528.htm,2015年12月23日。
(1)依据《国务院办公厅关于推进海绵城市建设的指导意见》中的定义。
(1)进行分类条件概率比较之前,为避免特定类别中的特征取值与类别取值高度一致情况的出现,应进行拉普拉斯修正。
(1)四个城市的海绵城市建设相关内容源自作者整理的相关报道,受篇幅限制,媒体信息来源未列出。
(1)事实上,范金金[34]的研究表明,朴素贝叶斯分类器特征之间是否满足独立性假设与分类器模型的表现没有必然联系,分类器模型能否准确识别是分类器模型的重要评价标准。出于研究严谨性的考虑,本文依然进行了特征独立性检验。