制度环境改善与技能偏向性技术进步
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摘要
技能偏向性技术进步(SBTC)在促进发达经济体结构调整过程中发挥了重要作用。如何使后发国家的技能偏向性技术进步得到有效发展?现有文献强调了GVC分工地位提升的重要性,却普遍忽略了制度环境这一重要因素。把制度因素纳入反映GVC分工特征的工序生产函数,考察了均衡状态下制度环境对技能偏向性技术进步的影响机制。理论分析表明,制度环境改善有助于SBTC的发生与发展;制度环境改善对SBTC的促进效应受到GVC分工地位的调节作用。上述结论得到1997—2015年30个地级市面板数据的计量支持。研究对制度变革深化和创新方式转变具有重要的启示。
Skill-biased technological change( SBTC) has played an important role in promoting the economic development of developed countries. How can we do to make SBTC develop effectively? The existing literatures emphasize the importance of global value chain( GVC) division to SBTC,but generally ignore the role of institutional environment. This paper incorporates institutional factor into sequential production function that reflects the characteristics of GVC division,and examines the influencing mechanism of institutional environment on SBTC under equilibrium condition. Theoretical analysis shows that institutional environment improvement can promote SBTC,but the promotion effect is regulated by the position of GVC division. The hypotheses are supported by empirical test using panel data of 30 cities from 1997 to 2015. The study has important implication for the deepening of institutional change and transformation of innovation mode.
Skill-biased technological change( SBTC) has played an important role in promoting the economic development of developed countries. How can we do to make SBTC develop effectively? The existing literatures emphasize the importance of global value chain( GVC) division to SBTC,but generally ignore the role of institutional environment. This paper incorporates institutional factor into sequential production function that reflects the characteristics of GVC division,and examines the influencing mechanism of institutional environment on SBTC under equilibrium condition. Theoretical analysis shows that institutional environment improvement can promote SBTC,but the promotion effect is regulated by the position of GVC division. The hypotheses are supported by empirical test using panel data of 30 cities from 1997 to 2015. The study has important implication for the deepening of institutional change and transformation of innovation mode.
引文
[1]ACEMOGLU D.Why do new technologies complement skills?Directed technical change and wage inequality[J].The quarterly journal of economics,1998,113(4):1055-1089.
[2]沈春苗.逆向外包与技能偏向性技术进步[J].财经研究,2016(5):43-52.
[3]聂辉华,邹肇芸.中国应从“人口红利”转向“制度红利”[J].国际经济评论,2012(6):124-135+7.
[4]YOUNG A.Gold into base metals:productivity growth in the people's republic of China during the reform period[J].Journal of political economy,2003,111(6):1220-1261.
[5]EICHER T S,TURNOVSKY S J.Convergence in a two-sector nonscale growth model[J].Journal of economic growth,1999,4(4):413-428.
[6]KATZ L F,MURPHY K M.Changes in relative wages,1963-1987:supply and demand factors[J].The quarterly journal of economics,1992,107(1):35-78.
[7]ACEMOGLU D.Directed technical change[J].The review of economic studies,2002,69(4):781-809.
[8]ACEMOGLU D,GANCIA G,ZILIBOTTI F.Offshoring and directed technical change[J].American economic journal:macroeconomics,2015,7(3):84-122.
[9]ACEMOGLU D.Technical change,inequality,and the labor market[J].Journal of economic literature,2002,40(1):7-72.
[10]KRUSELL P,OHANIAN L E,ROS-RULL J V,et al.Capital-skill complementarity and inequality:a macroeconomic analysis[J].Econometrica,2000,68(5):1029-1053.
[11]FREEMAN R B,KLEINER M M.The last American shoe manufacturers:decreasing productivity and increasing profits in the shift from piece rates to continuous flow production[J].Industrial relations:a journal of economy and society,2005,44(2):307-330.
[12]CHU A C,COZZI G,FURUKAWA Y.Effects of economic development in China on skill-biased technical change in the US[J].Review of economic dynamics,2015,18(2):227-242.
[13]董直庆,蔡啸,王林辉.技能溢价:基于技术进步方向的解释[J].中国社会科学,2014(10):22-40+205-206.
[14]王俊,胡雍.中国制造业技能偏向技术进步的测度与分析[J].数量经济技术经济研究,2015(1):82-96.
[15]王林辉,蔡啸,高庆昆.中国技术进步技能偏向性水平:1979-2010[J].经济学动态,2014(4):56-65.
[16]宋冬林,王林辉,董直庆.技能偏向型技术进步存在吗?---来自中国的经验证据[J].经济研究,2010(5):68-81.
[17]都阳.制造业企业对劳动力市场变化的反应:基于微观数据的观察[J].经济研究,2013(1):32-40+67.
[18]杨飞.市场化、技能偏向性技术进步与技能溢价[J].世界经济,2017(2):78-100.
[19]沈春苗,郑江淮.宽厚的政府采购、挑剔的消费者需求与技能偏向性技术进步[J].经济评论,2016(3):39-49.
[20]COSTINOT A,VOGEL J,WANG S.An elementary theory of global supply chains[J].Review of economic studies,2012,80(1):109-144.
[21]张书博,曹信邦.正规就业与非正规就业中户籍歧视力度探究---基于倾向值匹配的分析[J].南京财经大学学报,2017(1):72-80.
[22]张展新.劳动力市场的产业分割与劳动人口流动[J].中国人口科学,2004(2):47-54+82.
[23]戴翔,金碚.产品内分工、制度质量与出口技术复杂度[J].经济研究,2014(7):4-17+43.
[24]ANTRS P,CHOR D,FALLY T,et al.Measuring the upstreamness of production and trade flows[J].American economic review,2012,102(3):412-416.
[25]NUNN N.Relationship-specificity,incomplete contracts,and the pattern of trade[J].The quarterly journal of economics,2007,122(2):569-600.
[26]LEWBEL A.Constructing instruments for regressions with measurement error when no additional data are available,with an application to patents and R&D[J].Econometrica,1997,65(5):1201-1213.
(1)是指高等教育扩张背景下我国大学生就业难,以及农民工平均工资接近或者高于普通本科毕业生工资的现象。
(2)由于低端环节嵌入程度提高未必会带来GVC分工地位提升,但高端环节嵌入程度提高却往往伴随GVC分工地位提升,因此这里用高技能中间品厂商承接外包的程度来反映GVC分工地位。
(3)xi,h,d,t(s)表示满足本土企业所需的各阶段高技能投入品数量,xi,h,f,t(s)表示满足国外企业所需的各阶段高技能投入品数量。
(4)由于西藏自治区2002年和2007年投入产出表缺失,为保证所有变量的省份截面相同,统一把西藏自治区从样本数据中剔除。
(5)从产业链上的附加值分布看,微笑曲线两端的设计和研发,以及销售和售后的附加值明显高于制造环节,而本文利用I-O计算产业下游度时,仅涉及从生产到最终消费的产业链环节,即并未将设计和研发等服务环节包含在内,因此,产业下游度数值越大,意味着产业附加值水平越高,从而GVC分工地位越高。这与Antràs et al.[24]实证检验揭示的“经济体法治越健全、金融发展水平越高、人力资本存量越高的经济体,下游产品出口贸易量越高”,以及Costinot et al.[20]利用序贯生产模型证明的“均衡状态下发达国家更加专业化于下游阶段”的结论一致。
(6)dj,k为直接消耗系数,其经济含义是生产单位k产品所直接消耗的j产品数量。
(7)反之,可通过间接的中间消耗比重∑l=1∑k=1djldlkFk+∑l=1∑f=1∑k=1djldlfdfkFk+...Yj-F()j来反映产业上游位置。
[2]沈春苗.逆向外包与技能偏向性技术进步[J].财经研究,2016(5):43-52.
[3]聂辉华,邹肇芸.中国应从“人口红利”转向“制度红利”[J].国际经济评论,2012(6):124-135+7.
[4]YOUNG A.Gold into base metals:productivity growth in the people's republic of China during the reform period[J].Journal of political economy,2003,111(6):1220-1261.
[5]EICHER T S,TURNOVSKY S J.Convergence in a two-sector nonscale growth model[J].Journal of economic growth,1999,4(4):413-428.
[6]KATZ L F,MURPHY K M.Changes in relative wages,1963-1987:supply and demand factors[J].The quarterly journal of economics,1992,107(1):35-78.
[7]ACEMOGLU D.Directed technical change[J].The review of economic studies,2002,69(4):781-809.
[8]ACEMOGLU D,GANCIA G,ZILIBOTTI F.Offshoring and directed technical change[J].American economic journal:macroeconomics,2015,7(3):84-122.
[9]ACEMOGLU D.Technical change,inequality,and the labor market[J].Journal of economic literature,2002,40(1):7-72.
[10]KRUSELL P,OHANIAN L E,ROS-RULL J V,et al.Capital-skill complementarity and inequality:a macroeconomic analysis[J].Econometrica,2000,68(5):1029-1053.
[11]FREEMAN R B,KLEINER M M.The last American shoe manufacturers:decreasing productivity and increasing profits in the shift from piece rates to continuous flow production[J].Industrial relations:a journal of economy and society,2005,44(2):307-330.
[12]CHU A C,COZZI G,FURUKAWA Y.Effects of economic development in China on skill-biased technical change in the US[J].Review of economic dynamics,2015,18(2):227-242.
[13]董直庆,蔡啸,王林辉.技能溢价:基于技术进步方向的解释[J].中国社会科学,2014(10):22-40+205-206.
[14]王俊,胡雍.中国制造业技能偏向技术进步的测度与分析[J].数量经济技术经济研究,2015(1):82-96.
[15]王林辉,蔡啸,高庆昆.中国技术进步技能偏向性水平:1979-2010[J].经济学动态,2014(4):56-65.
[16]宋冬林,王林辉,董直庆.技能偏向型技术进步存在吗?---来自中国的经验证据[J].经济研究,2010(5):68-81.
[17]都阳.制造业企业对劳动力市场变化的反应:基于微观数据的观察[J].经济研究,2013(1):32-40+67.
[18]杨飞.市场化、技能偏向性技术进步与技能溢价[J].世界经济,2017(2):78-100.
[19]沈春苗,郑江淮.宽厚的政府采购、挑剔的消费者需求与技能偏向性技术进步[J].经济评论,2016(3):39-49.
[20]COSTINOT A,VOGEL J,WANG S.An elementary theory of global supply chains[J].Review of economic studies,2012,80(1):109-144.
[21]张书博,曹信邦.正规就业与非正规就业中户籍歧视力度探究---基于倾向值匹配的分析[J].南京财经大学学报,2017(1):72-80.
[22]张展新.劳动力市场的产业分割与劳动人口流动[J].中国人口科学,2004(2):47-54+82.
[23]戴翔,金碚.产品内分工、制度质量与出口技术复杂度[J].经济研究,2014(7):4-17+43.
[24]ANTRS P,CHOR D,FALLY T,et al.Measuring the upstreamness of production and trade flows[J].American economic review,2012,102(3):412-416.
[25]NUNN N.Relationship-specificity,incomplete contracts,and the pattern of trade[J].The quarterly journal of economics,2007,122(2):569-600.
[26]LEWBEL A.Constructing instruments for regressions with measurement error when no additional data are available,with an application to patents and R&D[J].Econometrica,1997,65(5):1201-1213.
(1)是指高等教育扩张背景下我国大学生就业难,以及农民工平均工资接近或者高于普通本科毕业生工资的现象。
(2)由于低端环节嵌入程度提高未必会带来GVC分工地位提升,但高端环节嵌入程度提高却往往伴随GVC分工地位提升,因此这里用高技能中间品厂商承接外包的程度来反映GVC分工地位。
(3)xi,h,d,t(s)表示满足本土企业所需的各阶段高技能投入品数量,xi,h,f,t(s)表示满足国外企业所需的各阶段高技能投入品数量。
(4)由于西藏自治区2002年和2007年投入产出表缺失,为保证所有变量的省份截面相同,统一把西藏自治区从样本数据中剔除。
(5)从产业链上的附加值分布看,微笑曲线两端的设计和研发,以及销售和售后的附加值明显高于制造环节,而本文利用I-O计算产业下游度时,仅涉及从生产到最终消费的产业链环节,即并未将设计和研发等服务环节包含在内,因此,产业下游度数值越大,意味着产业附加值水平越高,从而GVC分工地位越高。这与Antràs et al.[24]实证检验揭示的“经济体法治越健全、金融发展水平越高、人力资本存量越高的经济体,下游产品出口贸易量越高”,以及Costinot et al.[20]利用序贯生产模型证明的“均衡状态下发达国家更加专业化于下游阶段”的结论一致。
(6)dj,k为直接消耗系数,其经济含义是生产单位k产品所直接消耗的j产品数量。
(7)反之,可通过间接的中间消耗比重∑l=1∑k=1djldlkFk+∑l=1∑f=1∑k=1djldlfdfkFk+...Yj-F()j来反映产业上游位置。