农村城镇化背景下宅基地使用权流转中农户羊群行为与后续效应研究
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摘要
本文旨在探究农村城镇化背景下宅基地使用权流转中农户羊群行为产生机理、影响结果和后续效应,以获得有效指导实践的理论与实证依据。构建"羊群行为影响因素"到"羊群行为维度结构"到"羊群行为影响结果"再到"羊群行为后续效应"的理论假设模型,并通过浙江省嘉兴市农户的纵向调查数据进行验证。研究结果表明:(1)流转不确定性和其他农户流转状况将导致农户贬低私人信息和模仿他人,从而出现羊群行为;(2)羊群行为导致农户在宅基地使用权流转中出现明显的认知心理变化,表现为最初流转信念、调整流转信念和修正流转信念之间关系强度出现动态变化;(3)"正确的"羊群行为有助于减少期望失验和流转后悔。政策建议包括完善信息沟通渠道、通过"示范效应"引导理性决策和形成"正确的"舆论导向。
This article aims to explore the mechanism,effects and follow-up effects of herding behavior of farmers in the homestead use right transfer under the background of rural urbanization,so as to obtain theoretical and empirical basis for effective guidance of practice. The theoretical hypothetical models of "influencing factors of herd behavior"to "dimension structure of herd behavior"to "effects of herd behavior"and then "follow-up effects of herd behavior"were constructed and validated by the longitudinal survey data of farmers in Jiaxing City,Zhejiang Province. The results show that: 1) The uncertainty of transfer and the situation of other farmers' transfer will lead farmers to belittle private information and imitate others,resulting in herding behavior; 2) Herding behavior will lead to obvious cognitive psychological changes in the homestead use right transfer,which are manifest in the dynamic changes of the strength of relationship between the initial transfer beliefs,the adjustment of transfer beliefs and the correction of transfer beliefs; 3) Correct herding behavior helps to reduce expectation failure and turnover regret. Countermeasures and suggestions include improving information communication channels,guiding rational decision-making through "demonstration effect " and forming "correct "public opinion orientation.
This article aims to explore the mechanism,effects and follow-up effects of herding behavior of farmers in the homestead use right transfer under the background of rural urbanization,so as to obtain theoretical and empirical basis for effective guidance of practice. The theoretical hypothetical models of "influencing factors of herd behavior"to "dimension structure of herd behavior"to "effects of herd behavior"and then "follow-up effects of herd behavior"were constructed and validated by the longitudinal survey data of farmers in Jiaxing City,Zhejiang Province. The results show that: 1) The uncertainty of transfer and the situation of other farmers' transfer will lead farmers to belittle private information and imitate others,resulting in herding behavior; 2) Herding behavior will lead to obvious cognitive psychological changes in the homestead use right transfer,which are manifest in the dynamic changes of the strength of relationship between the initial transfer beliefs,the adjustment of transfer beliefs and the correction of transfer beliefs; 3) Correct herding behavior helps to reduce expectation failure and turnover regret. Countermeasures and suggestions include improving information communication channels,guiding rational decision-making through "demonstration effect " and forming "correct "public opinion orientation.
引文
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2.Scharfstein,D.S.and Stein,J.C.Herd Behavior and Investment.The American Economic Review,1990,80(3):465~479
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10.Bhattacherjee,A.and Premkumar,G.Understanding Changes in Belief and Attitude Toward Information Technology Usage,A Theoretical Model and Longitudinal Test.MIS Quarterly,2004,28(2):229~254
11.Kim,S.S.The Integrative Framework of Technology Use,An Extension and Test.MIS Quarterly,2009,33(3):513~537
12.Petter,S.and Straub,D.,Rai,A.Specifying Formative Constructs in Information System Research.MIS Quarterly,2007,31(4):623~656
13.Falk,R.F.and Miller,N.B.A Primer for Soft Modeling.University of Akron Press,1992
14.Hulland,J.Use of Partial Least Squares(PLS)in Strategic Management Research:A Review of Four Recent Studied.Strategic Management Journal,1999,20(2):195~204
15.陈小君,蒋省三.宅基地使用权制度:规范解析、实践挑战及其立法回应.管理世界,2010(1):1~12
16.贺日开.我国农村宅基地使用权流转的困境与出路.江苏社会科学,2014(6):68~77
17.郑尚元.宅基地使用权性质及农民居住权利之保障.中国法学,2014(2):142~157
18.朱新华.户籍制度对农户宅基地退出意愿的影响.中国人口·资源与环境,2014(10):129~134
19.徐汉明,刘春伟.农户宅基地使用权流转意愿及影响因素研究——基于武汉市江夏区210户调查问卷分析.西北农林科技大学学报(社会科学版),2012(6):44~49
20.杨玉珍.城市边缘区农户宅基地腾退动机影响因素研究.经济地理,2012(12):151~156
21.王子坤,邹伟,王雪琪.农户宅基地退出的行为与意愿悖离研究.中国土地科学,2018(7):29~35
22.杨玉珍.农户缘何不愿意进行宅基地的有尝腾退.经济学家,2015(5):68~77
23.阿德莱德.行为心理学入门.四川人民出版社,1987
24.胡贤辉.农村居民点用地变化驱动机制——基于湖北三县市的农户调查研究.华中农业大学博士学位论文,2007
25.杨卫忠.农户宅基地使用权流转中的羊群行为:私人信息还是公共信息?中国土地科学,2017(4):43~51
26.许恒周.基于农户受偿意愿的宅基地退出补偿及影响因素分析——以山东省临清市为例.中国土地科学,2012(10):75~81
27.关江华,黄朝禧,胡银根.基于Logistic回归模型的农户宅基地流转意愿研究——以微观福利为视角.经济地理,2013(8):128~133
28.周小平,王倩,谷晓坤,钱辉.基于Logistic回归模型的农户宅基地置换效果影响因素研究——以上海市嘉定区外冈镇宅基地置换为例.资源科学,2015(2):258~164
29.杨玉珍.宅基地腾退中农户行为决策的理论解析.农业技术经济,2014(4):53~62
30.上官彩霞.城乡建设用地增减挂钩实施中宅基地置换的模式选择及其对农民福利的影响研究.南京农业大学博士学位论文,2015
31.王宗润,潘城城.基于动态无标度网络的信息策略与羊群行为演化研究.中国管理科学,2018(12):66~77
32.居新华.基于羊群效应的投资者跟随行为研究.东华大学博士学位论文,2011
33.申明浩,宋剑波.基于报酬合约的经理人羊群行为研究.经济学(季刊),2008(3):1013~1028
34.胡海峰,宋李.我国证券投资基金羊群行为的实证研究.北京师范大学学报(社会科学版),2010(5):109~117
35.彭红枫,林川.学习与模仿:众筹融资市场中的理性与非理性羊群行为.东南大学学报(哲学社会科学版),2018(5):91~103
36.赵铮.分析师羊群行为、信息传递与资产定价.天津大学博士学位论文,2016
37.蒋多,徐富明,陈雪玲,刘腾飞,张军伟.资本市场中投资者羊群行为的心理机制及其影响因素.心理科学进展,2010(5):810~818
38.张顺明,叶军.后悔理论述评.系统工程,2009(2):45~50
**2018年中央“一号文件”的主题为乡村振兴战略,其理论内涵包含农村土地制度改革问题。农村土地制度改革与乡村振兴并不矛盾。建立健全归属清晰、权能完整、流转顺畅、保护严格的农村土地制度,是盘活农村资产、增加农民财产性收入的关键,也是改善农民居住环境、建设美丽乡村和发展现代化乡村社区的重要环节
2.Scharfstein,D.S.and Stein,J.C.Herd Behavior and Investment.The American Economic Review,1990,80(3):465~479
3.Banerjee,A.V.A Simple Model of Herd Behavior.The Quarterly Journal of Economies,1992,107(3):797~817
4.Zimmermann,H.J.An Application-oriented View of Modeling Uncertainty.European Journal of Operational Research,2000,122(2):190~198
5.Pfeffer,J.andSalancik,G.The External Control of Organization:A Resource Dependence Perspective.New York:Haper&Row,1978
6.Walden,E.A.and Browne,G.J.Sequential Adoption Theory:A Theory for understanding Herding Behavior in Early Adoption of Novel Technology.Journal of the Association for Information System,2009,10(1):177~195
7.Rao,H.,Greve,H.R.and Davis,G.F.Fool’s Gold:Social Proof in the Initiation and Abandonment of Coverage by Wall Street Anlysts.Administrative Science Quarterly,2001(3):502~526
8.Oliver,R.L.and Desarbo,W.S.Responses Determinants in Satisfaction Judgments.Journal of Consumer Research,1998,14(4):495~507
9.Parthasarathy,M.and Bhattacherjee,A.Understanding Post-Adoption Behavior in the Context of Online Services.Information Systems Research,1998(4):362~379
10.Bhattacherjee,A.and Premkumar,G.Understanding Changes in Belief and Attitude Toward Information Technology Usage,A Theoretical Model and Longitudinal Test.MIS Quarterly,2004,28(2):229~254
11.Kim,S.S.The Integrative Framework of Technology Use,An Extension and Test.MIS Quarterly,2009,33(3):513~537
12.Petter,S.and Straub,D.,Rai,A.Specifying Formative Constructs in Information System Research.MIS Quarterly,2007,31(4):623~656
13.Falk,R.F.and Miller,N.B.A Primer for Soft Modeling.University of Akron Press,1992
14.Hulland,J.Use of Partial Least Squares(PLS)in Strategic Management Research:A Review of Four Recent Studied.Strategic Management Journal,1999,20(2):195~204
15.陈小君,蒋省三.宅基地使用权制度:规范解析、实践挑战及其立法回应.管理世界,2010(1):1~12
16.贺日开.我国农村宅基地使用权流转的困境与出路.江苏社会科学,2014(6):68~77
17.郑尚元.宅基地使用权性质及农民居住权利之保障.中国法学,2014(2):142~157
18.朱新华.户籍制度对农户宅基地退出意愿的影响.中国人口·资源与环境,2014(10):129~134
19.徐汉明,刘春伟.农户宅基地使用权流转意愿及影响因素研究——基于武汉市江夏区210户调查问卷分析.西北农林科技大学学报(社会科学版),2012(6):44~49
20.杨玉珍.城市边缘区农户宅基地腾退动机影响因素研究.经济地理,2012(12):151~156
21.王子坤,邹伟,王雪琪.农户宅基地退出的行为与意愿悖离研究.中国土地科学,2018(7):29~35
22.杨玉珍.农户缘何不愿意进行宅基地的有尝腾退.经济学家,2015(5):68~77
23.阿德莱德.行为心理学入门.四川人民出版社,1987
24.胡贤辉.农村居民点用地变化驱动机制——基于湖北三县市的农户调查研究.华中农业大学博士学位论文,2007
25.杨卫忠.农户宅基地使用权流转中的羊群行为:私人信息还是公共信息?中国土地科学,2017(4):43~51
26.许恒周.基于农户受偿意愿的宅基地退出补偿及影响因素分析——以山东省临清市为例.中国土地科学,2012(10):75~81
27.关江华,黄朝禧,胡银根.基于Logistic回归模型的农户宅基地流转意愿研究——以微观福利为视角.经济地理,2013(8):128~133
28.周小平,王倩,谷晓坤,钱辉.基于Logistic回归模型的农户宅基地置换效果影响因素研究——以上海市嘉定区外冈镇宅基地置换为例.资源科学,2015(2):258~164
29.杨玉珍.宅基地腾退中农户行为决策的理论解析.农业技术经济,2014(4):53~62
30.上官彩霞.城乡建设用地增减挂钩实施中宅基地置换的模式选择及其对农民福利的影响研究.南京农业大学博士学位论文,2015
31.王宗润,潘城城.基于动态无标度网络的信息策略与羊群行为演化研究.中国管理科学,2018(12):66~77
32.居新华.基于羊群效应的投资者跟随行为研究.东华大学博士学位论文,2011
33.申明浩,宋剑波.基于报酬合约的经理人羊群行为研究.经济学(季刊),2008(3):1013~1028
34.胡海峰,宋李.我国证券投资基金羊群行为的实证研究.北京师范大学学报(社会科学版),2010(5):109~117
35.彭红枫,林川.学习与模仿:众筹融资市场中的理性与非理性羊群行为.东南大学学报(哲学社会科学版),2018(5):91~103
36.赵铮.分析师羊群行为、信息传递与资产定价.天津大学博士学位论文,2016
37.蒋多,徐富明,陈雪玲,刘腾飞,张军伟.资本市场中投资者羊群行为的心理机制及其影响因素.心理科学进展,2010(5):810~818
38.张顺明,叶军.后悔理论述评.系统工程,2009(2):45~50
**2018年中央“一号文件”的主题为乡村振兴战略,其理论内涵包含农村土地制度改革问题。农村土地制度改革与乡村振兴并不矛盾。建立健全归属清晰、权能完整、流转顺畅、保护严格的农村土地制度,是盘活农村资产、增加农民财产性收入的关键,也是改善农民居住环境、建设美丽乡村和发展现代化乡村社区的重要环节