南美地区油气资源投资风险分析

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英文篇名：Risk analysis on oil & gas investments in South America 作者：宋艺 ; 郭瑞 ; 谭杨 英文作者：SONG Yi;GUO Rui;TAN Yang;CNOOC Research Institute Co., Ltd.; 关键词：海外油气 ; 南美地区 ; 油气投资 ; 风险评估 ; 熵权-TOPSIS 英文关键词：overseas oil & gas;;South America;;oil & gas investment;;risk assessment;;entropy weight-TOPSIS 中文刊名：GJJJ 英文刊名：International Petroleum Economics 机构：中海油研究总院有限责任公司; 出版日期：2019-03-25 出版单位：国际石油经济 年：2019 期：v.27 基金：国家科技重大专项“海外大陆边缘盆地勘探开发实用新技术研究”(编号:2011ZX05030-006)的部分研究成果 语种：中文; 页：GJJJ201903015 页数：8 CN：03 ISSN：11-3112/F 分类号：105-112

摘要

近年来南美地区的多个重大油气发现掀起新一轮油气勘探开发热潮。以南美地区油气资源国为目标,从地质与资源、政治、经济、油气行业准入、油气行业运营五大类风险入手,通过定性与定量相结合的风险评估,得出各油气资源国投资风险的综合排序。该地区油气投资风险由低到高依次为巴西、智利、阿根廷、秘鲁、圭亚那、哥伦比亚、委内瑞拉、福克兰群岛、玻利维亚、厄瓜多尔。排名靠前的国家普遍具有良好的政治经济环境和友好的行业政策,除个别因素存在一定风险外,整体投资风险较低;排名靠后的国家普遍政治经济环境较差,国内问题较多,不确定性大,即使个别因素十分突出,整体投资风险仍然较高。可以重点关注巴西、智利、阿根廷、秘鲁、圭亚那的投资机会,这些国家除个别因素存在一定风险外,整体风险较低,风险可控。
        In recent years, several major oil and gas discoveries in South America have set off a new wave of oil and gas exploration and development. Targeting oil and gas resource countries in South America, the paper, based on such five types of risks as geology & resources, politics, economy, oil & gas industry access, and oil & gas industry operation, figures out the comprehensive ranking of risks of each oil and gas resource country by combining qualitative and quantitative risk evaluation methods. The investment risk of oil & gas resource countries in South America is Brazil, Chile, Argentina, Peru,Guyana, Colombia, Venezuela, the Falkland Islands, Bolivia, Ecuador, respectively from low to high. Top ranking countries generally have good political and economic environment and friendly industry policy, and the low overall investment risk except with some certain risky factors. Those low-ranking countries generally have a poor political and economic environment,many domestic problems and great uncertainties. Even if individual factors are prominent, the overall investment risk is still high. It suggests focusing on investment opportunities in Brazil, Chile, Argentina, Peru and Guyana, apart from certain risks caused by individual factors, have low overall risks and controllable risks.

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