近10年全球油气勘探特征分析及启示
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摘要
油气勘探是油气行业可持续发展的基础,全球勘探储量增长与油气上游行业发展趋势、国际油价、勘探投资等密切相关。2008—2018年全球勘探累计新发现油气田5737个,累计新增油气探明储量约为319×108t油当量。从油气类型看,油气新增探明储量占比相当,石油新增储量占51%,天然气占49%;从海陆类型看,海域成为储量增长重点领域,海域油气新增探明储量占68%,陆上占32%;从储层埋深看,深层—超深层成为主要勘探目标,深层油气藏(4000～6000m)石油新增探明储量占54%、天然气占40%,超深层油气藏(>6000m)石油新增探明储量占13%、天然气占21%;从勘探作业公司看,低油价以来国际油公司和国家石油公司投资聚焦油气田开发,独立油公司与其他公司成为勘探主体。国际油公司在风险勘探领域的"双勘探模式"经营模式值得研究和关注。
Oil and gas exploration is the basis for sustainable oil and gas industrial development. Global exploration reserves growth was closely related to the oil and gas upstream industrial development trend, international oil prices and exploration investment. A total of 5737 new oil and gas fields were cumulatively discovered all over the world between 2008 and 2018,while the newly-additional proven oil and gas reserves were accumulated to about 31.9 billion tons of oil equivalent. As for the oil and gas types, the proportion of newly added oil reserves was nearly equal to that of natural gas. The newly additional crude oil proven reserves occupied 51 percent of the total while the natural gas reserves accounted for the remaining 49 percent.As for the onshore and offshore categories, the offshore area became the key region for reserves growth. The newly-added offshore oil and gas proven reserves occupied 68 percent of the total while the onshore reserves accounted for the remaining 32 percent. As for the buried depth of reserves, the deep to ultra-deep reservoirs became the main exploration targets. The proven reserves from the deep oil and gas reservoirs(4000-6000 m) occupied 54 percent of the total newly additional crude oil reserves while the natural gas reserves accounted for 40 percent. The proven reserves from the ultra-deep reservoirs(>6000 m) occupied13 percent of the total newly additional crude oil reserves while the natural gas reserves accounted for 21 percent. As for exploration operating companies, international oil companies and national oil companies have concentrated their investment on tar oil and gas fields development since the decline of oil prices. Independent oil companies and other companies have become the mainstay for exploration. It is worth studying and paying attention to the business model of the "dual exploration pattern"which international oil companies have practised in the risk exploration area.
Oil and gas exploration is the basis for sustainable oil and gas industrial development. Global exploration reserves growth was closely related to the oil and gas upstream industrial development trend, international oil prices and exploration investment. A total of 5737 new oil and gas fields were cumulatively discovered all over the world between 2008 and 2018,while the newly-additional proven oil and gas reserves were accumulated to about 31.9 billion tons of oil equivalent. As for the oil and gas types, the proportion of newly added oil reserves was nearly equal to that of natural gas. The newly additional crude oil proven reserves occupied 51 percent of the total while the natural gas reserves accounted for the remaining 49 percent.As for the onshore and offshore categories, the offshore area became the key region for reserves growth. The newly-added offshore oil and gas proven reserves occupied 68 percent of the total while the onshore reserves accounted for the remaining 32 percent. As for the buried depth of reserves, the deep to ultra-deep reservoirs became the main exploration targets. The proven reserves from the deep oil and gas reservoirs(4000-6000 m) occupied 54 percent of the total newly additional crude oil reserves while the natural gas reserves accounted for 40 percent. The proven reserves from the ultra-deep reservoirs(>6000 m) occupied13 percent of the total newly additional crude oil reserves while the natural gas reserves accounted for 21 percent. As for exploration operating companies, international oil companies and national oil companies have concentrated their investment on tar oil and gas fields development since the decline of oil prices. Independent oil companies and other companies have become the mainstay for exploration. It is worth studying and paying attention to the business model of the "dual exploration pattern"which international oil companies have practised in the risk exploration area.
引文
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[9]赵喆,陆如泉,李宏伟,等.2013年全球常规油气勘探特点及趋势[J].国际石油经济,2014,22(8):41-47.Zhao Zhe,Lu Ruquan,Li Hongwei,et al.Characteristics and trends in global conventional oil and gas exploration in 2013[J].International Petroleum Economics,2014,22(8):41-47.
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[2]赵喆,张光亚,梁涛,等.2012年世界油气勘探新发现及发展趋势[J].天然气地球科学,2014,25(1):39-44.Zhao Zhe,Zhang Guangya,Liang Tao,et al.New exploration discovery and development trend of oil/gas exploration around the world in 2012[J].Natural Gas Geoscience,2014,25(1):39-44.
[3]Woodmackenzie.Upstream data tool[EB/OL].2019.https://my.woodmac.com/web/woodmac/data-tools.
[4]IHS Markit.Global upstream spending[EB/OL].2019.https://my.ihs.com/Energy/Products.
[5]史卜庆,王兆明,徐宁,等.2017年全球油气勘探形势分析与启示[J].国际石油经济,2018,26(3):36-41.Shi Buqing,Wang Zhaoming,Xu Ning,et al.Analysis and enlightenment of global oil and gas exploration in 2017[J].International Petroleum Economics,2018,26(3):36-41.
[6]刘小兵,贺正军,计智锋,等.全球油气勘探形势分析与发展建议[J].石油科技论坛,2018,37(6):48-52.Liu Xiaobing,He Zhengjun,Ji Zhifeng,et al.Situation analysis and development suggestion of global oil and gas exploration[J].Oil Forum,2018,37(6):48-52.
[7]李小地,赵喆,温志新,等.世界石油工业上游发展趋势[J].石油勘探与开发,2010,37(5):623-627.Li Xiaodi,Zhao Zhe,Wen Zhixin,et al.Development trends of world upstream oil and gas industries[J].Petroleum Exploration and Develpoment,2010,37(5):623-627.
[8]张宁宁,王青,王建君,等.近20年世界油气新发现特征与勘探趋势展望[J].中国石油勘探,2018,23(1):44-53.Zhang Ningning,Wang Qing,Wang Jianjun,et al.Characteristics of oil and gas discoveries in recent 20 years and future exploration in the world[J].China Petroleum Exploration,2018,23(1):44-53.
[9]赵喆,陆如泉,李宏伟,等.2013年全球常规油气勘探特点及趋势[J].国际石油经济,2014,22(8):41-47.Zhao Zhe,Lu Ruquan,Li Hongwei,et al.Characteristics and trends in global conventional oil and gas exploration in 2013[J].International Petroleum Economics,2014,22(8):41-47.
[10]中国石油勘探开发研究院.全球油气勘探形势及油公司动态(2018年)[M].北京:石油工业出版社,2018.RIPED.Global petroleum E&D trends and company dynamics(2018)[M].Beijing:Petroleum Industry Press,2018.
[11]王建君,张宁宁,王青,等.全球石油公司勘探开发业务发展动向与策略[J].石油科技论坛,2018,37(6):53-60.Wang Jianjun,Zhang Ningning,Wang Qing,et al.Development trends and strategies of global oil companies’exploration and development business[J].Oil Forum,2018,37(6):53-60.
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