东南地区引发地质灾害降水分型及阈值分析
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摘要
降水是引发地质灾害的最重要因素。该文综合利用2013-2016年东南地区(浙、闽、粤三省)地质灾害数据、国家气象中心逐小时降水量资料,通过对灾害特征和降水量等资料的统计,初步分析了降水因子与地质灾害的关系,并重点针对地质灾害的降水影响因子进行灾害降水的分型,根据降水分型(短临降水型、短时降水型、短期降水型、长历时降水型),基于最小临界雨量法,建立了各类型降水在东南地区的引发地质灾害的降水阈值分布。利用该降水阈值的分布特征,检验了2017年的各分类降水引发地质灾害的降水量,发现阈值雨量的判别方法较为科学,具有较强的参考价值。
Precipitation is the most important factor leading to geological disasters. Based on the data of geological hazards in Southeast China( Zhejiang,Fujian and Guangdong provinces) from 2013 to 2016 and the hourly precipitation data of the National Meteorological Center,the relationship between precipitation factors and geological hazards is preliminarily analyzed through the statistics of disaster characteristics and precipitation data,and the hazards are focused on the precipitation impact factors of geological hazards. According to the precipitation classification( short-impending precipitation,short-term precipitation,short-term precipitation and long-term precipitation),the precipitation threshold distribution of various types of precipitation in Southeast China was established based on the minimum critical rainfall method. Based on the distribution characteristics of the threshold precipitation,the precipitation of geological hazards caused by various types of precipitation in 2017 is tested. It is found that the method for distinguishing the threshold precipitation is scientific and has a strong reference value.
Precipitation is the most important factor leading to geological disasters. Based on the data of geological hazards in Southeast China( Zhejiang,Fujian and Guangdong provinces) from 2013 to 2016 and the hourly precipitation data of the National Meteorological Center,the relationship between precipitation factors and geological hazards is preliminarily analyzed through the statistics of disaster characteristics and precipitation data,and the hazards are focused on the precipitation impact factors of geological hazards. According to the precipitation classification( short-impending precipitation,short-term precipitation,short-term precipitation and long-term precipitation),the precipitation threshold distribution of various types of precipitation in Southeast China was established based on the minimum critical rainfall method. Based on the distribution characteristics of the threshold precipitation,the precipitation of geological hazards caused by various types of precipitation in 2017 is tested. It is found that the method for distinguishing the threshold precipitation is scientific and has a strong reference value.
引文
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[21]郭富赟,宋晓玲,谢煜,等.甘肃地质灾害气象预警技术方法探讨[J].中国地质灾害与防治学报,2015,26(1):128-133.
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[23]蒋宗孝,江彩英,王加义.闽北地质灾害与降水关系分析[J].世界地质,2009,28(1):127-133.
[24]李明,杜继稳,高维英.陕北黄土高原区地质灾害与降水关系[J].干旱区研究,2009,26(4):599-606.
[25]张国平.有效雨量和滑坡泥石流灾害概率模型[J].气象,2014,40(7):886-890.
[26]狄靖月,王志,田华,等.降水引发的西南地区公路损毁风险预报方法[J].应用气象学报,2015,26(3):268-279.
[27]中国气象局.全国短时、临近预报业务规定(气科函2010(21)号)[z].北京:中国气象局,2010.
[28]矫梅燕.地质灾害气象风险预警业务服务技术指南[M].北京.气象出版社,2017:46-47.
[29]王一鸣,殷坤龙,龚新法,等.浙东南山区泥石流分布规律[J].地质灾害与环境保护,2012,2(23):11-16.
[30]中国气象局.暴雨诱发地质灾害气象风险预警业务规范(气减函2016(65)号)[z].北京:中国气象局,2016.
[31]吴翠红,张萍萍,龙利民,等.峡谷地形对两次大暴雨过程的增幅作用对比分析[J].暴雨灾害,2013,32(1):38
[32]徐晶,张国平,张芳华,等.基于Logistic回归的区域地质灾害综合气象预警模型[J],气象,2007,12(33):3-8.
[2]钟荫乾.滑坡与降雨关系及其预报[J].中国地质灾害与防治学报,1998,9(4):81-86.
[3]林孝松,郭跃.滑坡与降雨的耦合关系研究[J].灾害学,2001,16(2):87-92.
[4]李德心,何思明,朱兴华,等.前期有效降雨对滑坡启动影响分析[J].灾害学,2011,26(3):41-45.
[5]马超,胡凯衡,赵晋恒,等.震后泥石流的激发雨量特征——以汶川地震和集集地震后泥石流为例[J].灾害学,2013,28(4):89-94.
[6]铁永波,周洪福,倪化勇.西南山区短时强降雨诱发型低频泥石流成因机制分析——以四川省宝兴县冷木沟泥石流为例[J].灾害学,2013,28(4):110-113.
[7]文科军,王礼先,谢宝元.暴雨泥石流实时预报的研究[J].北京林业大学学报,1998,20(6):59-64.
[8]谭万沛.泥石流扇的类型与土地利用模式[J].地理学与国土研究,2000,16(1):71-74.
[9]吴树仁,金逸民,石菊松,等.滑坡预警判据初步研究——以三峡库区为例[J].吉林大学学报(地球科学版),2004,34(4):596-600.
[10]高华喜,殷坤龙.降雨与滑坡灾害相关性分析及预警预报阀值之探讨[J].岩土力学,2007,28(5):1055-1060.
[11]吴跃东,向钒,马玲.安徽省地质灾害气象预警预报研究[J].灾害学,2008,23(4):26-29.
[12]张雅斌,杜继稳,蔡蕊,等.陕西省精细化地质灾害气象预报预警研究[J].灾害学,2011,26(3):28-34.
[13]刘传正,温铭生,唐灿,等.地质灾害防治理论与实践[M].北京:地质出版社,2006.
[14]宋光齐,李云贵,钟沛林,等.地质灾害气象预报预警方法探讨——以四川省地质灾害气象预报预警为例[J].水文地质工程地质,2004,31(2)):33-36.
[15]周玉才,雷万荣,余广文,等.江西省地质灾害一气象预警预报系统研究[J].中国地质灾害与防治学报,2008,19(2):69-75.
[16]张铁军,王锡稳,魏文娟,等.甘肃省山洪地质灾害气象等级预报预警技术研究[J].甘肃科技,2008,24(16):58-60.
[17]唐红梅,魏来,唐云辉,等.重庆市降雨型滑坡相关分析及预报模型[J].中国地质灾害与防治学报,2013,19(4):18-22.
[18]陈平,丛威青. GIS支持下的湖南省地质灾害气象预警系统建设探讨[J].成都理工大学学报(自然科学版),2006,33(5):533-535.
[19]高华喜,殷坤龙.降雨与滑坡灾害相关性分析及预警预报阀值之探讨[J].岩土力学,2007,28(5):1055-1060.
[20]陈静静,姚蓉,文强,等.湖南省降雨型地质灾害致灾雨量阈值分析[J].灾害学,2014,19(4):42-47.
[21]郭富赟,宋晓玲,谢煜,等.甘肃地质灾害气象预警技术方法探讨[J].中国地质灾害与防治学报,2015,26(1):128-133.
[22] GONG Qinghua,HUANG Guangqing,GUO Min,et al. Present status of research and its developmental tendency on prediction and early warning of geologic hazards[J]. World Geology,2006,25(3):296-302.
[23]蒋宗孝,江彩英,王加义.闽北地质灾害与降水关系分析[J].世界地质,2009,28(1):127-133.
[24]李明,杜继稳,高维英.陕北黄土高原区地质灾害与降水关系[J].干旱区研究,2009,26(4):599-606.
[25]张国平.有效雨量和滑坡泥石流灾害概率模型[J].气象,2014,40(7):886-890.
[26]狄靖月,王志,田华,等.降水引发的西南地区公路损毁风险预报方法[J].应用气象学报,2015,26(3):268-279.
[27]中国气象局.全国短时、临近预报业务规定(气科函2010(21)号)[z].北京:中国气象局,2010.
[28]矫梅燕.地质灾害气象风险预警业务服务技术指南[M].北京.气象出版社,2017:46-47.
[29]王一鸣,殷坤龙,龚新法,等.浙东南山区泥石流分布规律[J].地质灾害与环境保护,2012,2(23):11-16.
[30]中国气象局.暴雨诱发地质灾害气象风险预警业务规范(气减函2016(65)号)[z].北京:中国气象局,2016.
[31]吴翠红,张萍萍,龙利民,等.峡谷地形对两次大暴雨过程的增幅作用对比分析[J].暴雨灾害,2013,32(1):38
[32]徐晶,张国平,张芳华,等.基于Logistic回归的区域地质灾害综合气象预警模型[J],气象,2007,12(33):3-8.