恶劣天气下海上交通安全风险动态预评估体系
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摘要
研发具有可视化、智能化预警监控功能的恶劣天气条件下海上交通安全风险动态预评估系统,进一步提高我国海事国际履约水平和海上交通安全监管与保障能力。为此,对恶劣天气条件下的海上交通事故种类、影响海上交通安全风险的主要环境条件及进行恶劣天气条件下的海上交通安全风险评估时应重点关注的船舶和海域进行系统分析;建立海上交通安全风险动态预评估体系,并提出实施恶劣天气条件下的海上交通安全风险动态预评估面临的主要任务。该研究可为研发恶劣天气条件下的海上交通安全风险动态预评估系统提供必要的理论支持。
It is of great practical value to research and develop visualized and intelligent dynamic pre-evaluation system for marine traffic safety risk under rough weather,whether from perspective of honoring the international maritime agreements or further improving the capability of the supervision and support of marine traffic safety. The types of marine traffic accidents under rough weather,the environmental conditions that may affect marine traffic safety,and the vessels and sea areas are analyzied,on which the marine traffic risk pre-evaluation should be focused. With the identification of the factors that may affect the marine traffic risk,a dynamic pre-evaluation system for marine traffic risk is established. The major task of developing better dynamic pre-evaluation system for marine traffic risk under rough weather is proposed. Necessary theoretical support for the development of marine traffic risk pre-evaluation system under rough weather with practical value is provided.
It is of great practical value to research and develop visualized and intelligent dynamic pre-evaluation system for marine traffic safety risk under rough weather,whether from perspective of honoring the international maritime agreements or further improving the capability of the supervision and support of marine traffic safety. The types of marine traffic accidents under rough weather,the environmental conditions that may affect marine traffic safety,and the vessels and sea areas are analyzied,on which the marine traffic risk pre-evaluation should be focused. With the identification of the factors that may affect the marine traffic risk,a dynamic pre-evaluation system for marine traffic risk is established. The major task of developing better dynamic pre-evaluation system for marine traffic risk under rough weather is proposed. Necessary theoretical support for the development of marine traffic risk pre-evaluation system under rough weather with practical value is provided.
引文
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[10]刘大刚,郑中义,吴兆麟.大风浪中航行船舶风险体系分析[J].交通运输工程学报,2004,4(2):100-102.
[2]BALMAT J F,LAFONT F,MAIFRET R,et al.A Decision-Making System to Maritime Risk Assessment[J].Ocean Engineering,2011,38(1):171-176.
[3]李惠敏.成山头水域海上交通事故特征及致因分析研究[D].武汉理工大学,2012.
[4]刘大刚,解以扬,刘斌贤,等.大风浪条件下船舶风险状况动态评估预警系统[J].中国航海,2015,38(1):63-67.
[5]郑中义,李红喜.通航水域航行安全评价的研究[J].中国航海,2008,31(2):130-134.
[6]巢国荣.上海港黄浦江水域船舶交通安全评价[D].大连:大连海事大学,2002.
[7]KUJALA P,HANNINEN M,AROLA T,et al.Analysis of the Marine Traffic Safety in the Gulf of Finland[J].Reliability Engineering and System Safety,2009,94(1):1349-1357.
[8]YIP T L Y.Port Traffic Risks-A Study of Accidents in Hong Kong Waters[J].Transportation Research Part E,2008,44(1):921-931.
[9]胡甚平,方泉根,张锦朋,等.沿海水上交通安全的风险评估研究[J].中国航海,2010,33(1):50-55.
[10]刘大刚,郑中义,吴兆麟.大风浪中航行船舶风险体系分析[J].交通运输工程学报,2004,4(2):100-102.
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