年际增量方法在西南夏季降水预测中的应用
|
摘要
利用中国西南地区80站逐月降水资料及NCEP/NCAR再分析资料等,采用降水预测新方法——年际增量法,考察影响中国西南地区夏季降水年际增量的前期冬、春季大气环流年际增量状况,并选取5个关键影响因子,采用多元回归法建立中国西南夏季降水年际增量预测模型。对降水年际增量进行预测,在1971—2010年的建模阶段,预测模型的拟合率为0.78,在2011—2017的后报检验7年中,有6年与实况值同位相。后报检验2011—2017年的降水距平百分率,均方根误差为16%。为考察对降水异常分布型的预报效果,逐站建立回归方程,并进行趋势预报检验,近5年的趋势异常综合评分高于发布预测,预报效果较好。因此,该方法的应用及模型的建立对提高西南地区夏季降水预测水平有重要意义。
Based on monthly precipitation observations collected at 80 stations in Southwest China and NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data, the method of annual increment is implemented to investigate interannual increment of atmospheric circulation in the preceding winter and spring, which influences interannual increment of summer precipitation in Southwest China. Five key factors have been selected to establish an interannual incremental prediction model for summer rainfall in Southwest China by using multiple regression method. In the modeling stage from 1971 to 2010 for interannual precipitation increment forecast, the fitting rate of the prediction model is 0.78. In the post-test seven years from 2011 to 2017, the forecast is in phase with observations in six out of the seven years, and the root mean square error of percentage precipitation anomalies is 16% in the return test from 2011 to 2017. The regression equation is established station by station to investigate the prediction effect on various types of precipitation anomaly, and the PS score in the recent five years is higher than that of operational forecasts. Therefore, the establishment of the model and its application are of great significance for the improvement of summer precipitation forecast in Southwest China.
Based on monthly precipitation observations collected at 80 stations in Southwest China and NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data, the method of annual increment is implemented to investigate interannual increment of atmospheric circulation in the preceding winter and spring, which influences interannual increment of summer precipitation in Southwest China. Five key factors have been selected to establish an interannual incremental prediction model for summer rainfall in Southwest China by using multiple regression method. In the modeling stage from 1971 to 2010 for interannual precipitation increment forecast, the fitting rate of the prediction model is 0.78. In the post-test seven years from 2011 to 2017, the forecast is in phase with observations in six out of the seven years, and the root mean square error of percentage precipitation anomalies is 16% in the return test from 2011 to 2017. The regression equation is established station by station to investigate the prediction effect on various types of precipitation anomaly, and the PS score in the recent five years is higher than that of operational forecasts. Therefore, the establishment of the model and its application are of great significance for the improvement of summer precipitation forecast in Southwest China.
引文
陈仁芳.2005.阿留申低压的气候特征及其与大气环流和中国气温降水的联系[D].南京:南京大学.Chen R F.2005.The climatic characteristics of the Aleutian low and its connection with atmospheric circulation and temperature precipitation in China[D].Nanjing:Nanjing University
戴新刚,丑纪范,吴国雄.2002.印度季风与东亚夏季环流的遥相关关系.气象学报,60(5):544-552.Dai X G,Chou J F,Wu G X.2002.The teleconnection relationship between Indian monsoon and East Asian summer circulation.Acta Meteor Sinica,60(5):544-552 (in Chinese)
丁一汇.1990.东亚冬季风的统计研究.热带气象,6(2):119-128.Ding Y H.1990.A statistical study of winter monsoons in East Asia.J Trop Meteor,6(2):119-128 (in Chinese)
段安明,刘屹岷,吴国雄.2003.4—6月青藏高原热状况与盛夏东亚降水和大气环流的异常.中国科学(D辑),33(10):997-1004.Duan A M,Liu Y M,Wu G X.2003.The thermal conditions of the Tibetan Plateau form April to June and the anomalies of precipitation and atmospheric circulation in East Asian during the summer.Earth Sci,33(10):997-1004 (in Chinese)
范可,王会军,Choi Y J.2007.一个长江中下游夏季降水的物理统计预测模型.科学通报,52(24):2900-2905.Fan K,Wang H J,Choi Y J.2008.A physically-based statistical forecast model for the middle-lower reaches of the Yangtze River Valley summer rainfall.Chinese Sci Bull,53(4):602-609
范可.2007.西北太平洋台风生成频次的新预测因子和新预测模型.中国科学 D辑:地球科学,37(9):1260-1266.Fan K.2007.New predictors and a new prediction model for the typhoon frequency over western North Pacific.Sci China Ser D:Earth Sci,50(9):1417-1423
范可,林美静,高煜中.2008.用年际增量方法预测华北汛期降水.中国科学 D辑:地球科学,38(11):1452-1459.Fan K,Lin M J,Gao Y Z.2009.Forecasting the summer rainfall in North China using the year-to-year increment approach.Sci China Ser D:Earth Sci,52(4):532-539
顾伟宗,陈丽娟,李维京等.2012.降尺度方法在中国不同区域夏季降水预测中的应用.气象学报,70(2):202-212.Gu W Z,Chen L J,Li W J,et al.2012.Development of a downscaling method in China regional summer precipitation prediction.Acta Meteor Sinica,70(2):202-212 (in Chinese)
黄嘉佑,刘舸,赵昕奕.2004.副高、极涡因子对我国夏季降水的影响.大气科学,28(4):517-526.Huang J Y,Liu G,Zhao X Y.2004.The influence of subtropical high indexes and polar vortex indexes on the summertime precipitation in China.Chin J Atmos Sci,28(4):517-526 (in Chinese)
黄荣辉,孙凤英.1994.热带西太平洋暖池的热状态及其上空的对流活动对东亚夏季气候异常的影响.大气科学,18(2):141-151.Huang R H,Sun F Y.1994.Impacts of the thermal state and the convective activities in the Tropical Western Warm Pool on the summer climate anomalies in East Asia.Chinese J Atmos Sci,18(2):141-151 (in Chinese)
季飞,赵俊虎,申茜等.2014.季风与极涡的异常配置下中国夏季大尺度旱涝分布.物理学报,63(5):059201.Ji F,Zhao J H,Shen Q,et al.2014.The distribution of large-scale drought/flood of summer in China under different configurations of monsoon and polar vortex.Acta Phys Sinica,63(5):059201 (in Chinese)
李崇银,顾薇,潘静.2008.梅雨与北极涛动及平流层环流异常的关联.地球物理学报,51(6):1632-1641.Li C Y,Gu W,Pan J.2008.Mei-yu,arctic oscillation and stratospheric circulation anomalies.Chinese J Geophys,51(6):1632-1641 (in Chinese)
李栋梁,季国良,吕兰芝.2001.青藏高原地面加热场强度对北半球大气环流和中国天气气候异常的影响研究.中国科学(D辑),31(S1):312-319.Li D L,Ji G L,Lv L Z.2001.Impact of Tibetan Plateau surface heating field intensity on Northern Hemispherical general circulations and weather and the climate of China.Sci China Ser D:Earth Sci,31(S1):312-319 (in Chinese)
李栋梁.2006.青藏高原地面加热场强度变化及其与太阳活动的关系.高原气象,25(6):975-982.Li D L.2006.Relationship between variation of strength departure indices of surface heating fields over Qinghai-Xizang Plateau and sun activation.Plateau Meteor,25(6):975-982 (in Chinese)
李永华,卢楚翰,徐海明等.2011.夏季青藏高原大气热源与西南地区东部旱涝的关系.大气科学,35(3):422-434.Li Y H,Lu C H,Xu H M,et al.2011.Contemporaneous relationships between summer atmospheric heat source over the Tibetan Plateau and drought/flood in eastern Southwest China.Chinese J Atmos Sci,35(3):422-434 (in Chinese)
李琛,李双林.2016.索马里和澳大利亚越赤道气流的协同变化与我国夏季降水型.科学通报,61(13):1453-1461.Li C,Li S L.2016.Connection of the interannual seesaw of the Somali-Australian cross-equatorial flows with China summer rainfall.China Sci Bull,61(13):1453-1461 (in Chinese)
梁红丽,肖子牛,晏红明.2004.孟加拉湾冬季风及其与亚洲夏季气候的关系.热带气象学报,20(5):537-547.Liang H L,Xiao Z N,Yan H M.2004.Relationship between the Bay of Bengal winter monsoon and the summer climate change in Asia.J Trop Meteor,20(5):537-547 (in Chinese)
刘丽,杨若文,邢冬等.2011.ENSO发展和衰减阶段对云南夏季降水的影响研究.热带气象学报,27(2):278-282.Liu L,Yang R W,XING D,et al.2011.The influence of developing and decaying stages of ENSO on summer precipitation in Yunnan.J Trop Meteor,27(2):278-282 (in Chinese)
刘晓冉,程炳岩,杨茜等.2009.川渝地区夏季高温干旱变化特征及其异常年环流形势分析.高原气象,28(2):306-313.Liu X R,Cheng B Y,Yang Q,et al.2009.Changing characteristics of high temperature and drought of Sichuan-Chongqing regions in summer and its analysis of circulation patterns in anomalous years.Plateau Meteor,28(2):306-313 (in Chinese)
刘向文,孙照渤,倪东鸿等.2009.105°E和125°E越赤道气流与南、北半球环流变化的关系.大气科学,33(3):443-458.Liu X W,Sun Z B,Ni D H,et al.2009.Connection of 105°E and 125°E cross-equatorial flow with the southern and northern hemispheric circulations.Chinese J Atmos Sci,33(3):443-458 (in Chinese)
申乐琳,何金海,周秀骥等.2010.近50年来中国夏季降水及水汽输送特征研究.气象学报,68(6):918-931.Shen L L,He J H,Zhou X J,et al.2010.The regional variabilities of the summer rainfall in China and its relation with anomalous moisture transport during the recent 50 years.Acta Meteor Sinica,68(6):918-931 (in Chinese)
王芬,曹杰,唐浩鹏等.2014.前期北太平洋海温异常对贵州夏季降水的影响.高原气象,33(4):925-936.Wang F,Cao J,Tang H P,et al.2014.Impact of SST in Northern Pacific Ocean on flood season precipitation in Guizhou.Plateau Meteor,33(4):925-936 (in Chinese)
王会军,孙建奇,范可.2007.北太平洋涛动与台风和飓风频次的关系研究.中国科学 D辑:地球科学,37(7):966-973.Wang H J,Sun J Q,Fan K.2007.Relationships between the North Pacific Oscillation and the typhoon/hurricane frequencies.Sci China Ser D:Earth Sci,50(9):1409-1416
魏凤英.2007.现代气候统计诊断与预测技术.2版.北京:气象出版社.Wei F Y.2007.Modern Climate Statistical Diagnosis and Prediction Technology.2nd ed.Beijing:China Meteorological Press (in Chinese)
吴国雄,张永生.1998.青藏高原的热力和机械强迫作用以及亚洲季风的爆发I:爆发地点.大气科学,22(6):825-838.Wu G X,Zhang Y S.1998.Thermal and mechanical forcing of the Tibetan Plateau and the Asian monsoon onset.Part Ⅰ:Situating of the onset.Chinese J Atmos Sci,22(6):825-838 (in Chinese)
晏红明,肖子牛.2001.中国西南汛期降水的振动和分布及其与印度洋海温异常的关系.气象科学,21(1):54-63.Yan H M,Xiao Z N.2001.Oscillation and distribution of precipitation during rainy season in south-west China and the relation between precipitation and SSTA over India Ocean.Scientia Meteor Sinica,21(1):54-63 (in Chinese)
张庆云,郭恒.2014.夏季长江淮河流域异常降水事件环流差异及机理研究.大气科学,38(4):656-669.Zhang Q Y,Guo H.2014.Circulation differences in anomalous rainfall over the Yangtze River and Huaihe River valleys in summer.Chinese J Atmos Sci,38(4):656-669 (in Chinese)
张宇,李耀辉,魏林波等.2013.南亚高压与西太平洋副热带高压对我国西南地区夏季降水异常的影响.干旱气象,31(3):464-470.Zhang Y,Li Y H,Wei L B,et al.2013.Effects of South Asia High and Western Pacific Subtropical High on the summer precipitation anomalies over Southwest China.J Arid Meteor,31(3):464-470 (in Chinese)
周浩,唐红玉,程炳岩.2010.青藏高原冬春季积雪异常与西南地区夏季降水的关系.冰川冻土,32(6):1144-1151.Zhou H,Tang H Y,Cheng B Y.2010.Relation between the abnormal snow cover in winter and spring over the Tibetan Plateau and summer precipitation over the southwest China.J Glaciol Geocryol,32(6):1144-1151 (in Chinese)
Allen M R,Ingram W J.2002.Constraints on future changes in climate and the hydrologic cycle.Nature,419(6903):224-232
Fan K,Wang H J.2010.Seasonal prediction of summer temperature over Northeast China using a year-to-year incremental approach.Acta Meteor Sinica,24(3):269-275
Fan K.2012.A statistical prediction model for spring rainfall over Northern China based on the interannual increment approach.J Trop Meteor,18(4):543-550
戴新刚,丑纪范,吴国雄.2002.印度季风与东亚夏季环流的遥相关关系.气象学报,60(5):544-552.Dai X G,Chou J F,Wu G X.2002.The teleconnection relationship between Indian monsoon and East Asian summer circulation.Acta Meteor Sinica,60(5):544-552 (in Chinese)
丁一汇.1990.东亚冬季风的统计研究.热带气象,6(2):119-128.Ding Y H.1990.A statistical study of winter monsoons in East Asia.J Trop Meteor,6(2):119-128 (in Chinese)
段安明,刘屹岷,吴国雄.2003.4—6月青藏高原热状况与盛夏东亚降水和大气环流的异常.中国科学(D辑),33(10):997-1004.Duan A M,Liu Y M,Wu G X.2003.The thermal conditions of the Tibetan Plateau form April to June and the anomalies of precipitation and atmospheric circulation in East Asian during the summer.Earth Sci,33(10):997-1004 (in Chinese)
范可,王会军,Choi Y J.2007.一个长江中下游夏季降水的物理统计预测模型.科学通报,52(24):2900-2905.Fan K,Wang H J,Choi Y J.2008.A physically-based statistical forecast model for the middle-lower reaches of the Yangtze River Valley summer rainfall.Chinese Sci Bull,53(4):602-609
范可.2007.西北太平洋台风生成频次的新预测因子和新预测模型.中国科学 D辑:地球科学,37(9):1260-1266.Fan K.2007.New predictors and a new prediction model for the typhoon frequency over western North Pacific.Sci China Ser D:Earth Sci,50(9):1417-1423
范可,林美静,高煜中.2008.用年际增量方法预测华北汛期降水.中国科学 D辑:地球科学,38(11):1452-1459.Fan K,Lin M J,Gao Y Z.2009.Forecasting the summer rainfall in North China using the year-to-year increment approach.Sci China Ser D:Earth Sci,52(4):532-539
顾伟宗,陈丽娟,李维京等.2012.降尺度方法在中国不同区域夏季降水预测中的应用.气象学报,70(2):202-212.Gu W Z,Chen L J,Li W J,et al.2012.Development of a downscaling method in China regional summer precipitation prediction.Acta Meteor Sinica,70(2):202-212 (in Chinese)
黄嘉佑,刘舸,赵昕奕.2004.副高、极涡因子对我国夏季降水的影响.大气科学,28(4):517-526.Huang J Y,Liu G,Zhao X Y.2004.The influence of subtropical high indexes and polar vortex indexes on the summertime precipitation in China.Chin J Atmos Sci,28(4):517-526 (in Chinese)
黄荣辉,孙凤英.1994.热带西太平洋暖池的热状态及其上空的对流活动对东亚夏季气候异常的影响.大气科学,18(2):141-151.Huang R H,Sun F Y.1994.Impacts of the thermal state and the convective activities in the Tropical Western Warm Pool on the summer climate anomalies in East Asia.Chinese J Atmos Sci,18(2):141-151 (in Chinese)
季飞,赵俊虎,申茜等.2014.季风与极涡的异常配置下中国夏季大尺度旱涝分布.物理学报,63(5):059201.Ji F,Zhao J H,Shen Q,et al.2014.The distribution of large-scale drought/flood of summer in China under different configurations of monsoon and polar vortex.Acta Phys Sinica,63(5):059201 (in Chinese)
李崇银,顾薇,潘静.2008.梅雨与北极涛动及平流层环流异常的关联.地球物理学报,51(6):1632-1641.Li C Y,Gu W,Pan J.2008.Mei-yu,arctic oscillation and stratospheric circulation anomalies.Chinese J Geophys,51(6):1632-1641 (in Chinese)
李栋梁,季国良,吕兰芝.2001.青藏高原地面加热场强度对北半球大气环流和中国天气气候异常的影响研究.中国科学(D辑),31(S1):312-319.Li D L,Ji G L,Lv L Z.2001.Impact of Tibetan Plateau surface heating field intensity on Northern Hemispherical general circulations and weather and the climate of China.Sci China Ser D:Earth Sci,31(S1):312-319 (in Chinese)
李栋梁.2006.青藏高原地面加热场强度变化及其与太阳活动的关系.高原气象,25(6):975-982.Li D L.2006.Relationship between variation of strength departure indices of surface heating fields over Qinghai-Xizang Plateau and sun activation.Plateau Meteor,25(6):975-982 (in Chinese)
李永华,卢楚翰,徐海明等.2011.夏季青藏高原大气热源与西南地区东部旱涝的关系.大气科学,35(3):422-434.Li Y H,Lu C H,Xu H M,et al.2011.Contemporaneous relationships between summer atmospheric heat source over the Tibetan Plateau and drought/flood in eastern Southwest China.Chinese J Atmos Sci,35(3):422-434 (in Chinese)
李琛,李双林.2016.索马里和澳大利亚越赤道气流的协同变化与我国夏季降水型.科学通报,61(13):1453-1461.Li C,Li S L.2016.Connection of the interannual seesaw of the Somali-Australian cross-equatorial flows with China summer rainfall.China Sci Bull,61(13):1453-1461 (in Chinese)
梁红丽,肖子牛,晏红明.2004.孟加拉湾冬季风及其与亚洲夏季气候的关系.热带气象学报,20(5):537-547.Liang H L,Xiao Z N,Yan H M.2004.Relationship between the Bay of Bengal winter monsoon and the summer climate change in Asia.J Trop Meteor,20(5):537-547 (in Chinese)
刘丽,杨若文,邢冬等.2011.ENSO发展和衰减阶段对云南夏季降水的影响研究.热带气象学报,27(2):278-282.Liu L,Yang R W,XING D,et al.2011.The influence of developing and decaying stages of ENSO on summer precipitation in Yunnan.J Trop Meteor,27(2):278-282 (in Chinese)
刘晓冉,程炳岩,杨茜等.2009.川渝地区夏季高温干旱变化特征及其异常年环流形势分析.高原气象,28(2):306-313.Liu X R,Cheng B Y,Yang Q,et al.2009.Changing characteristics of high temperature and drought of Sichuan-Chongqing regions in summer and its analysis of circulation patterns in anomalous years.Plateau Meteor,28(2):306-313 (in Chinese)
刘向文,孙照渤,倪东鸿等.2009.105°E和125°E越赤道气流与南、北半球环流变化的关系.大气科学,33(3):443-458.Liu X W,Sun Z B,Ni D H,et al.2009.Connection of 105°E and 125°E cross-equatorial flow with the southern and northern hemispheric circulations.Chinese J Atmos Sci,33(3):443-458 (in Chinese)
申乐琳,何金海,周秀骥等.2010.近50年来中国夏季降水及水汽输送特征研究.气象学报,68(6):918-931.Shen L L,He J H,Zhou X J,et al.2010.The regional variabilities of the summer rainfall in China and its relation with anomalous moisture transport during the recent 50 years.Acta Meteor Sinica,68(6):918-931 (in Chinese)
王芬,曹杰,唐浩鹏等.2014.前期北太平洋海温异常对贵州夏季降水的影响.高原气象,33(4):925-936.Wang F,Cao J,Tang H P,et al.2014.Impact of SST in Northern Pacific Ocean on flood season precipitation in Guizhou.Plateau Meteor,33(4):925-936 (in Chinese)
王会军,孙建奇,范可.2007.北太平洋涛动与台风和飓风频次的关系研究.中国科学 D辑:地球科学,37(7):966-973.Wang H J,Sun J Q,Fan K.2007.Relationships between the North Pacific Oscillation and the typhoon/hurricane frequencies.Sci China Ser D:Earth Sci,50(9):1409-1416
魏凤英.2007.现代气候统计诊断与预测技术.2版.北京:气象出版社.Wei F Y.2007.Modern Climate Statistical Diagnosis and Prediction Technology.2nd ed.Beijing:China Meteorological Press (in Chinese)
吴国雄,张永生.1998.青藏高原的热力和机械强迫作用以及亚洲季风的爆发I:爆发地点.大气科学,22(6):825-838.Wu G X,Zhang Y S.1998.Thermal and mechanical forcing of the Tibetan Plateau and the Asian monsoon onset.Part Ⅰ:Situating of the onset.Chinese J Atmos Sci,22(6):825-838 (in Chinese)
晏红明,肖子牛.2001.中国西南汛期降水的振动和分布及其与印度洋海温异常的关系.气象科学,21(1):54-63.Yan H M,Xiao Z N.2001.Oscillation and distribution of precipitation during rainy season in south-west China and the relation between precipitation and SSTA over India Ocean.Scientia Meteor Sinica,21(1):54-63 (in Chinese)
张庆云,郭恒.2014.夏季长江淮河流域异常降水事件环流差异及机理研究.大气科学,38(4):656-669.Zhang Q Y,Guo H.2014.Circulation differences in anomalous rainfall over the Yangtze River and Huaihe River valleys in summer.Chinese J Atmos Sci,38(4):656-669 (in Chinese)
张宇,李耀辉,魏林波等.2013.南亚高压与西太平洋副热带高压对我国西南地区夏季降水异常的影响.干旱气象,31(3):464-470.Zhang Y,Li Y H,Wei L B,et al.2013.Effects of South Asia High and Western Pacific Subtropical High on the summer precipitation anomalies over Southwest China.J Arid Meteor,31(3):464-470 (in Chinese)
周浩,唐红玉,程炳岩.2010.青藏高原冬春季积雪异常与西南地区夏季降水的关系.冰川冻土,32(6):1144-1151.Zhou H,Tang H Y,Cheng B Y.2010.Relation between the abnormal snow cover in winter and spring over the Tibetan Plateau and summer precipitation over the southwest China.J Glaciol Geocryol,32(6):1144-1151 (in Chinese)
Allen M R,Ingram W J.2002.Constraints on future changes in climate and the hydrologic cycle.Nature,419(6903):224-232
Fan K,Wang H J.2010.Seasonal prediction of summer temperature over Northeast China using a year-to-year incremental approach.Acta Meteor Sinica,24(3):269-275
Fan K.2012.A statistical prediction model for spring rainfall over Northern China based on the interannual increment approach.J Trop Meteor,18(4):543-550