我国结构性减税政策及其收入分配效应——基于异质性家庭NK-DSGE的模拟分析
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摘要
本文通过构建包含异质性家庭、厂商、政府和中央银行四部分的小型封闭经济的NK-DSGE模型,研究了两类家庭消费税、劳动所得税、资本所得税和企业所得税五种税收政策冲击对产出、两类家庭收入及其分配差距的影响。研究表明,李嘉图家庭消费税上升使产出下降、家庭收入先减少再增加、收入差距缩小;非李嘉图家庭消费税下降使产出增加、家庭收入增加、收入差距扩大;劳动所得税下降使产出增加、家庭收入先增加后减少、收入差距扩大;资本所得税与李嘉图家庭消费税、企业所得税与非李嘉图家庭消费税的政策作用效果方向一致,但资本和企业所得税的效果更显著。由结构性减税的税收政策组合分析可知,税种及其变化幅度直接决定政策作用效果。因此,政府在制定税收政策时应兼顾其作用方向、作用强度和作用时效,审慎选择。
By constructing a NK-DSGE model in a small closed economy, which consists of heterogeneous households, manufacturers, governments and central banks, this paper studies the effects of five kinds of tax policy shocks on output, household incomes and their distribution gaps, such as two types of household consumption tax, labor income tax, capital income tax and corporate income tax. Conclusions show that output declines with the Ricardo's household consumption tax rising, household income decreases first and then increases, and income gap narrows; with the Non-Ricardo household consumption tax declining, output increases, household income increases, and income gap widens; with the labor income tax declining, output increases, household income increases first and then decreases, and income gap widens. The capital income tax has the same effect as the policy effect of Ricardo's household consumption tax, corporate income tax has the same effect as the NonRicardo household consumption tax, but the effects of capital income tax and corporate income tax are more significant. From the analysis of the structural tax reduction policy, it can be seen that the tax type and its' change rate determine the policy effects directly. Therefore, when making tax policies, the government should take into account its direction, strength, time-effect, and choose carefully.
By constructing a NK-DSGE model in a small closed economy, which consists of heterogeneous households, manufacturers, governments and central banks, this paper studies the effects of five kinds of tax policy shocks on output, household incomes and their distribution gaps, such as two types of household consumption tax, labor income tax, capital income tax and corporate income tax. Conclusions show that output declines with the Ricardo's household consumption tax rising, household income decreases first and then increases, and income gap narrows; with the Non-Ricardo household consumption tax declining, output increases, household income increases, and income gap widens; with the labor income tax declining, output increases, household income increases first and then decreases, and income gap widens. The capital income tax has the same effect as the policy effect of Ricardo's household consumption tax, corporate income tax has the same effect as the NonRicardo household consumption tax, but the effects of capital income tax and corporate income tax are more significant. From the analysis of the structural tax reduction policy, it can be seen that the tax type and its' change rate determine the policy effects directly. Therefore, when making tax policies, the government should take into account its direction, strength, time-effect, and choose carefully.
引文
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[8]王乔,汪柱旺.我国现行税制结构影响居民收入分配差距的实证分析[J].当代财经,2008(02):37-38+125.
[9]安体富,蒋震.调整国民收入分配格局提高居民分配所占比重[J].财贸经济,2009(07):50-55.
[10]刘尚希,应亚珍.个人所得税:功能定位与税制设计[J].税务研究,2003(06):24-30.
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[12]郭庆旺,吕冰洋.论税收对要素收入分配的影响[J].经济研究,2011(06):16-30.
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[31] Smets,F.,&Wouters,R.. Shocks and Frictions in US Business Cycles:A Bayesian DSGE Approach. The American Economic Review,Vol.97,No.3,June 2007:pp. 586-606.
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[34]陈利锋.收入不平等与货币政策:基于异质性家庭的视角—货币政策盯住目标应该纳入收入不平等吗?[J].西部论坛,2018(01):18-28.
[35]康立,龚六堂.金融摩擦、银行净资产与国际经济危机传导—基于多部门DSGE模型分析[J].经济研究,2014(05):147-159.
[36]王玉凤,张淑芹.财政政策冲击对社会福利及宏观经济的动态影响—基于新凯恩斯DSGE模型的分析[J].中央财经大学学报,2015(04):11-19.
[37]张岩.新常态下我国结构性减税和税收工具选择—基于开放经济DSGE模型的实证研究[J].现代财经,2017(07):71-88.
[38]蒲火元,曹宗平.生产部门的减税政策对中国宏观经济的影响—基于DSGE模型的研究[J].华东经济管理,2018,32(03):89-95.
[39] Forni,L.,Monteforte,L.,&Sessa,L.. The General Equilibrium Effects of Fiscal Policy:Estimates for the Euro Area. Journal of Public Economics,Vol.93,No.3,October 2008:pp.559-585.
[40]马文涛,魏福成.基于新凯恩斯动态随机一般均衡模型的季度产出缺口测度[J].管理世界,2011(05):39-65.
[41]卞志村,杨源源.结构性财政调控与新常态下财政工具选择[J].经济研究,2016(03):66-80.
[42]刘斌.我国DSGE模型的开发及在货币政策分析中的应用[J].金融研究,2008(10):1-21.
[43] Zhang,W.L.. China's Monetary Policy:Quantity versus Price Rules. Journal of Macroeconomics,Vol.31,No.3,September 2009:pp.473-484.
[44]杨源源.财政支出结构、通货膨胀与非李嘉图制度—基于DSGE模型的分析[J].财政研究,2017(01):64-76+88.
[45]张佐敏.财政规则与政策效果—基于DSGE分析[J].经济研究,2013(01):41-53.
[46]王国静,田国强.金融冲击和中国经济波动[J].经济研究,2014(03):20-34.
[47]罗娜,程方楠.房价波动的宏观审慎政策与货币政策协调效应分析—基于新凯恩斯主义的DSGE模型[J].国际金融研究,2017(01):39-48.
[48]许志伟,薛鹤翔,罗大庆.融资约束与中国经济波动—新凯恩斯主义框架内的动态分析[J].经济学(季刊),2011(01):83-111.
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[52]武晓利,晁江锋.财政支出结构对居民消费率影响及传导机制研究—基于三部门动态随机一般均衡模型的模拟分析[J].财经研究,2014(40):4-15.
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(1) 由于篇幅原因,其他内生变量脉冲反应的图形没有列出,感兴趣的读者可向笔者索取。
(1) 2013年前为农村居民人均纯收入,2013年及之后为农村居民人均可支配收入。
[2]刘怡,聂海峰.间接税负担对收入分配的影响分析[J].经济研究,2004(05):22-30.
[3]李绍荣,耿莹.中国的税收结构、经济增长与收入分配[J].经济研究,2005(05):118-126.
[4]徐建炜,马光荣,李实.个人所得税改善中国收入分配了吗—基于对1997—2011年微观数据的动态评估[J].中国社会科学,2013(06):53-71+205.
[5]田志伟,胡怡建,朱王林.个人所得税、企业所得税、个人社保支出与收入分配[J].财经论丛,2014(11):18-24.
[6]国家计委综合司课题组.90年代我国宏观收入分配的实证研究[J].经济研究,1999(11):3-12.
[7]王亚芬,肖晓飞,高铁梅.我国收入分配差距及个人所得税调节作用的实证分析[J].财贸经济,2007(04):18-26+126+128.
[8]王乔,汪柱旺.我国现行税制结构影响居民收入分配差距的实证分析[J].当代财经,2008(02):37-38+125.
[9]安体富,蒋震.调整国民收入分配格局提高居民分配所占比重[J].财贸经济,2009(07):50-55.
[10]刘尚希,应亚珍.个人所得税:功能定位与税制设计[J].税务研究,2003(06):24-30.
[11]万莹.我国流转税收入分配效应的实证分析[J].当代财经,2012(07):21-30.
[12]郭庆旺,吕冰洋.论税收对要素收入分配的影响[J].经济研究,2011(06):16-30.
[13]黄赜琳,朱保华.中国的实际经济周期与税收政策效应[J].经济研究,2015(03):4-17,114.
[14]江春,向丽锦,肖祖沔.货币政策、收入分配及经济福利—基于DSGE模型的贝叶斯估计[J].财贸经济,2018(03):17-34.
[15]吴立元,龚六堂.异质性与货币政策传导机制研究进展[J].经济学动态,2018(11):103-119.
[16] Greenwood,J.,&Jovanovic,B.. Financial Development,Growth,and the Distribution of Income. Journal of Political Economy,Vol.98,NO.5,October 1990:pp.1076-1107.
[17] Aghion,P.&Bolton,P.. A Theory of Trickle-Down Growth and Development. The Review of Economic Studies,Vol. 64,NO.2,April 1997:pp.151-172.
[18]Matsuyama,K.. Endogenous Inequality. Review of Economic Studies,Vol.67,NO.4,October 2000:pp.743-759.
[19] Campbell,J.Y.,&Mankiw,N.G.. Consumption,Income,and Interest Rates:Reinterpreting the Time Series Evidence. NBER Macroeconomics Annual,Vol.4,1989:pp.185-216.
[20] Motta,G.,&Tirelli,P.. Optimal Simple Monetary and Fiscal Rules under Limited Asset Market Participation. Journal of Money,Credit and Banking,Vol.44,No.7,October 2012:pp.1351-1374.
[21] Smets,F.,&Wouters,R.. An Estimated Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium Model of the Euro Area. Journal of the European Economic Association,Vol.1,No.5,September 2003:pp. 1123-1175.
[22] Christiano,L.J.,Eichenbaum,M.,&Evans,C.L.. Nominal Rigidities and Dynamic Effects of a Shock to Monetary Policy. Journal of Political Economy,Vol.113,No.1,February 2005:pp.1-45.
[23] Calvo,G.A.. Staggered Prices in a Utility-maximizing Framework. Journal of Monetary Economics,Vol.12,No.3,September 1983:pp.383-398.
[24] Dixit,A.K.,&Stiglitz,J.E.. Monopolistic Competition and Optimum Product Diversity. The American Economic Review,Vol.67,No.3,June 1977:pp.297-308.
[25] Cassou,S.P.,&Lansing,K.J.. Optimal Fiscal Policy,Public Capital and the Productivity Slowdown. Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control,Vol.22,No.6,June 1998:pp.911-935.
[26] Baxter,M.,&King,R.G.. Fiscal Policy in General Equilibrium. The American Economic Review,Vol.83,No.3,June 1993:pp.315-334.
[27]王文甫.价格粘性、流动性约束与中国财政政策的宏观效应[J].管理世界,2010(09):11-25+187.
[28] Correia,I.,&Farhi,E.. Unconventional Fiscal Policy at Zero Bound. American Economic Review,Vol.103,No.4,June 2013:pp.1172-1211.
[29]朱军.中国宏观DSGE模型中的税收模式选择及其实证研究[J].数量经济技术经济研究,2015(01):67-81.
[30]金春雨,张龙,贾鹏飞.货币政策规则、政策空间与政策效果[J].经济研究,2018(07):47-58.
[31] Smets,F.,&Wouters,R.. Shocks and Frictions in US Business Cycles:A Bayesian DSGE Approach. The American Economic Review,Vol.97,No.3,June 2007:pp. 586-606.
[32]王爱俭,王璟怡.宏观审慎政策效应及其与货币政策关系研究[J].经济研究,2014(04):17-31.
[33]王立勇,徐晓莉.纳入企业异质性与金融摩擦特征的政府支出乘数研究[J].经济研究,2018(08):100-115.
[34]陈利锋.收入不平等与货币政策:基于异质性家庭的视角—货币政策盯住目标应该纳入收入不平等吗?[J].西部论坛,2018(01):18-28.
[35]康立,龚六堂.金融摩擦、银行净资产与国际经济危机传导—基于多部门DSGE模型分析[J].经济研究,2014(05):147-159.
[36]王玉凤,张淑芹.财政政策冲击对社会福利及宏观经济的动态影响—基于新凯恩斯DSGE模型的分析[J].中央财经大学学报,2015(04):11-19.
[37]张岩.新常态下我国结构性减税和税收工具选择—基于开放经济DSGE模型的实证研究[J].现代财经,2017(07):71-88.
[38]蒲火元,曹宗平.生产部门的减税政策对中国宏观经济的影响—基于DSGE模型的研究[J].华东经济管理,2018,32(03):89-95.
[39] Forni,L.,Monteforte,L.,&Sessa,L.. The General Equilibrium Effects of Fiscal Policy:Estimates for the Euro Area. Journal of Public Economics,Vol.93,No.3,October 2008:pp.559-585.
[40]马文涛,魏福成.基于新凯恩斯动态随机一般均衡模型的季度产出缺口测度[J].管理世界,2011(05):39-65.
[41]卞志村,杨源源.结构性财政调控与新常态下财政工具选择[J].经济研究,2016(03):66-80.
[42]刘斌.我国DSGE模型的开发及在货币政策分析中的应用[J].金融研究,2008(10):1-21.
[43] Zhang,W.L.. China's Monetary Policy:Quantity versus Price Rules. Journal of Macroeconomics,Vol.31,No.3,September 2009:pp.473-484.
[44]杨源源.财政支出结构、通货膨胀与非李嘉图制度—基于DSGE模型的分析[J].财政研究,2017(01):64-76+88.
[45]张佐敏.财政规则与政策效果—基于DSGE分析[J].经济研究,2013(01):41-53.
[46]王国静,田国强.金融冲击和中国经济波动[J].经济研究,2014(03):20-34.
[47]罗娜,程方楠.房价波动的宏观审慎政策与货币政策协调效应分析—基于新凯恩斯主义的DSGE模型[J].国际金融研究,2017(01):39-48.
[48]许志伟,薛鹤翔,罗大庆.融资约束与中国经济波动—新凯恩斯主义框架内的动态分析[J].经济学(季刊),2011(01):83-111.
[49]梅冬州,龚六堂.新兴市场经济国家的汇率制度选择[J].经济研究,2011(11):73-88.
[50] Mendoza,E.G.,Razin,A.,&Tesar,L.L.. Effective Tax Rate in Macroeconomics:Cross-country Estimates of Tax Rates on Factor Income and Consumption. NBER Working Paper NO.4864,1994.
[51]刘初旺.我国消费、劳动和资本有效税率估计及其国际比较[J].财经论丛,2004(04):9-16.
[52]武晓利,晁江锋.财政支出结构对居民消费率影响及传导机制研究—基于三部门动态随机一般均衡模型的模拟分析[J].财经研究,2014(40):4-15.
[53]陈利锋.消息、房地产价格与货币政策[J].当代财经,2017(06):3-17.
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(1) 由于篇幅原因,其他内生变量脉冲反应的图形没有列出,感兴趣的读者可向笔者索取。
(1) 2013年前为农村居民人均纯收入,2013年及之后为农村居民人均可支配收入。
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