农户对气候变化的适应能力评价及限制因子:基于青藏高原典型农业区调查数据
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摘要
全球变化背景下,适应气候变化已成为可持续发展的准则。农户是农村社会最重要、最基本的生产单位,通过农户对气候变化适应能力评价及其限制因子的诊断研究,可以提高农户适应行为的有效性,增强适应能力。本研究借鉴可持续生计框架和适应能力评估框架,以青藏高原典型农业区,湟水中下游14个行政村为研究对象,基于入户问卷调查数据,构建该区域的农户对气候变化适应能力评价指标体系,应用适应能力指数模型,进行农户对气候变化适应能力定量评价,并通过障碍度模型,诊断分析主要限制性因子。结果表明:1)湟水中下游地区农户对气候变化感知较为准确;2)农户适应能力的高低用适应能力指数(ACI)表示,研究区农户适应能力处于较高状态,以适应能力0.280≤ACI <0.320的农户为主体。研究区自东向西随着海拔的升高,样本村农户适应能力总体呈现下降趋势;3)维度层表明,自然能力和经济能力对农户适应能力的影响较大。指标层表明,耕地质量、经济收入多元性、获得现金帮助的途径、家庭年收入、劳动力受教育水平和农作物需水量紧缺度为主要限制性因子;4)湟水中下游地区农户适应能力高低的核心因子为农户家庭年收入。
Adapting to climate change has become the norm for sustainable development in the context of global change.Farmers are the main basic unit of production in rural areas. Through diagnostic research on the assessment of farmers' adaptation ability to climate change and its limiting factors, the effectiveness of farmers' adaptation and their adaptation ability can be enhanced. Taking 14 administrative villages in the Middle-Lower Huangshui Area of the Tibetan Plateau as a case study, an index system for assessing the adaptation ability of farmers to climate change, based on household survey data,was constructed. The adaptive capacity index model was applied to quantitatively evaluate farmers' adaptability to climate change, with the main restrictive factors of each adaptive capacity area diagnosed and analyzed through the obstacle model.The conclusions showed that 1) farmers in the Middle-Lower Huangshui Area have a more accurate perception of climate change. 2) Adaptability is in a high state, with farmers who have the ability of 0.280 ≤ ACI(adaptive capacity index) <0.320 are the main body. In this area, from east to west, there is a downward trend of the sample village farmers' adaptability with altitude. 3) The dimension layer shows that natural ability and economic capacity have a major effect on farmers' adaptability. The indicator layer highlights that the quality of cultivated land, diversity of economic income, methods for obtaining financial assistance, annual income of the family, education level of the labor force, and shortage of crop water are the main limiting factors. 4) The core factor of the adaptability of farmers in the downstream areas of the Middle-Lower Huangshui Area is the annual income of the farmers.
Adapting to climate change has become the norm for sustainable development in the context of global change.Farmers are the main basic unit of production in rural areas. Through diagnostic research on the assessment of farmers' adaptation ability to climate change and its limiting factors, the effectiveness of farmers' adaptation and their adaptation ability can be enhanced. Taking 14 administrative villages in the Middle-Lower Huangshui Area of the Tibetan Plateau as a case study, an index system for assessing the adaptation ability of farmers to climate change, based on household survey data,was constructed. The adaptive capacity index model was applied to quantitatively evaluate farmers' adaptability to climate change, with the main restrictive factors of each adaptive capacity area diagnosed and analyzed through the obstacle model.The conclusions showed that 1) farmers in the Middle-Lower Huangshui Area have a more accurate perception of climate change. 2) Adaptability is in a high state, with farmers who have the ability of 0.280 ≤ ACI(adaptive capacity index) <0.320 are the main body. In this area, from east to west, there is a downward trend of the sample village farmers' adaptability with altitude. 3) The dimension layer shows that natural ability and economic capacity have a major effect on farmers' adaptability. The indicator layer highlights that the quality of cultivated land, diversity of economic income, methods for obtaining financial assistance, annual income of the family, education level of the labor force, and shortage of crop water are the main limiting factors. 4) The core factor of the adaptability of farmers in the downstream areas of the Middle-Lower Huangshui Area is the annual income of the farmers.
引文
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[2]沈永平,王国亚.IPCC第一工作组第五次评估报告对全球气候变化认知的最新科学要点.冰川冻土,2013,35(5):1068-1076.SHEN Y P,WANG G Y.Key findings and assessment results of IPCC WGI Fifth assessment report.Journal of Glaciology and Geocryology,2013,35(5):1068-1076.
[3]BURTON I,KATES R W,WHITE G F.The Environment as Hazard.New York:Oxford University Press,1978.
[4]SMIT.Adaptation to climatic variability and change.Guelph,Canada:Environment,1993:3-17.
[5]NELSON R,KOKIC P,ELLISTON L,KING J A.Structural adjustment:A vulnerability index for Australian broadacre agriculture.Australian Commodities,2005,12:171-179.
[6]CHEN M P,SUN F,BERRY P,TINCH R,JU HUI,LIN E.Integrated assessment of China’s adaptive capacity to climate change with a capital approach.Climate Change,2014,128(3):367-380.
[7]PANDEY V P,BABEL M S,SHRESTHA S,KAZAMA F.A frame work to assess adaptive capacity of the water resources system in Nepalese river basins.Ecological Indicators,2011,11(2):480-488.
[8]尹莎,陈佳,吴孔森,杨新军.干旱环境胁迫下农户适应性研究:基于民勤绿洲地区农户调查数据.地理科学进展,2016,35(5):644-654.YIN S,CHEN J,WU K S,YANG X J.Adaptation of farming households under drought stress:based on a survey in the Minqin Oasis.Progress in Geography,2016,35(5):644-654.
[9]郭秀丽,周立华,陈勇,顾梦鹤,赵敏敏.农户对生态环境变化的适应能力及驱动因子分析:以内蒙古自治区杭锦旗为例.生态学报,2018,38(21):1-8.GUO X L,ZHOU L H,CHEN Y,GU M H,ZHAO M M.Analysis on the adaptability of farmers to ecological and environmental change and the driving factors in the inner Mongolia Autonomous Region.Acta Ecologica Sinica,2018,38(21):1-8.
[10]王婷,石育中,刘倩,温腾飞,杨新军.陇中半干旱区不同类型农户抗旱适应能力定量评价:以榆中县为例.干旱区研究,2018,35(4):992-1000.WANG T,SHI Y Z,LIU Q,WEN T F,YANG X J.Farmers’adeaptive capability against drought in semiarid area in central Gansu Province:A case study in Yuzhong County.Arid Zone Research,2018,35(4):992-1000.
[11]陈凤臻,姜琦刚,于显双,崔瀚文.全球变化下北方农牧交错地带区域适应能力评价模型研究.地球科学与环境学报,2010,32(3):292-296.CHEN F X,JIANG Q G,YU X S,CUI H W.Study on regional adaptability model for farming-pastoral zone in the Northern of China under global change.Journal of Earth Sciences and Environ-ment,2010,32(3):292-296.
[12]田素妍,陈嘉烨.可持续生计框架下农户气候变化适应能力研究.中国人口·资源与环境,2014,24(5):31-37.TIAN S Y,CHEN J Y.Farmers’Adaptation to climate change within the sustainable livelihood framework.China Population,Resources and Environment,2014,24(5):31-37.
[13]LI M P,HUO X X,PENG C H,QIU C H,SHANGGUAN Z P,CHANG C,HUAI J J.Complementary livelihood capital as a means to enhance adaptive capacity:A case of the Loess Plateau,China.Global Environmental Change,2017,47:143-152.
[14]TINCH R,JAGER J,OMANNI,HARRISON P A,WESELY JULIA,DUNFORD ROB.Applying a capitals framework to measuring coping and adaptive capacity in integrated assessment models.Climatic Change,2015,128:323-337.
[15]侯志瑞,陈琼,周强,刘峰贵,马伟东.青藏高原东北缘山地农户对气候变化的感知及适应策略:以湟水中游为例.气候变化研究进展,2018,14(2):175-181.HOU Z R,CHEN Q,ZHOU Q,LIU F G,MA W D.The perception of climate change and adaptation strategies of farmers in the northeast edgemountianous of the Tibetan Plateau:A case of the middle reach of the Huangshui River.Climate Change Research,2018,14(2):175-181.
[16]赵雪雁,薛冰.高寒生态脆弱区农户对气候变化的感知与适应意向:以甘南高原为例.应用生态学报,2016,27(7):2329-2339.ZHAO X Y,XUE B.Farmer’s perception and adaptation intention for climate change in high-cold eco-fragile region:A case of Gannan Plateau,China.Chinese Journal of Applied Ecology,2016,27(7):2329-2339.
[17]GROTHMANN T,PATT A.Adaptive capacity and human cognition:The process of individual adaptation to climate change.Global Environmental Change,2005,15(3):199-213.
[18]李小云,董强,饶小龙,赵丽霞.农户脆弱性分析方法及其本土化应用.中国农村经济,2007(4):32-39.LI X Y,DONG Q,RAO X L,ZHAO L X.Farmer vulnerability analysis method and its localization application.Chinese Rural Economy,2007(4):32-39.
[19]SHARP K.Measuring destitution:Integrating qualitative and quantitative approaches in the analysis of survey data.Working paper series,217.Brighton:Institute of Development Studies,2003:217-234.
[20]刘大海,宫伟,邢文秀,李晓璇,马雪健,于莹.基于AHP-熵权法的海岛海岸带脆弱性评价指标权重综合确定方法.海洋环境科学,2015,34(3):462-467.LIU D H,GONG W,XING W X,LI X X,MA X J,YU Y.Comprehensive method for determining the weights of vulnerability assessment indexes on islands and the coastal zone based on the AHP weight method and entropy weight method.Marine Environmental Science,2015,34(3):462-467.
[21]周松秀,田亚平,刘兰芳.南方丘陵区农业生态系统适应能力及其驱动因子:以衡阳盆地为例.生态学报,2015,35(6):1991-2002.ZHOU S X,TIAN Y P,LIU L F.Adaptability of agricultural ecosystems in the hilly areas in Southern China:A case study in Hengyang Basin.Acta Ecologica Sinica,2015,35(6):1991-2002.
[22]何云玲,张一平.纵向岭谷区生态环境对气候变化的适应性评价.山地学报,2009,27(3):300-305.HE Y L,ZHANG Y P.Adaptation assessment of ecoenvironment in the Longitudinal Range Gorge Region(LRGR)under the changing climate.Mountain Research,2009,27(3):300-305.
[23]赵跃龙,张玲娟.脆弱生态环境定量评价方法的研究.地理科学进展,1998(1):67-72.ZHAO Y L,ZHANG L J.A study on index and method of quantitative assessment of fragile environment.Progress in Geography,1998(1):67-72.
[24]任嘉敏,马延吉.东北老工业基地绿色发展评价及障碍因素分析.地理科学,2018,38(7):1042-1050.REN J M,MA Y J.Green development level and the obstacle factors of old industrial base in Northeast China.Scientia Geographica Sinica,2018,38(7):1042-1050.
[25]韩锦辉,赵文晋,杨天通,王斯勃.基于改进TOPSIS法的东北农牧交错区土地可持续利用评价及障碍因子诊断.水土保持研究,2018,25(3):279-284,291.HAN J H,ZHAO W J,YANG T T,WANG S B.Evaluation of sustainable land use diagnosis of obstacle factors in agro-pastoral zone of Northeast China based on improve TOPSIS method.Research of Soil and Water Conservation,2018,25(3):279-284,291.
[26]HARRIS I,JONES P D,OSBORN T J,OSBORN,LISTER D H.Updated high-resolution grids of monthly climatic observations:The CRUTS 3.10 Dataset.International Journal of Climatology,2014,34(3):623-642.
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