产流误差平稳矩阵的系统响应修正方法参数分析
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摘要
为进一步提高洪水预报精度,扩展产流误差平稳矩阵的系统响应修正方法的应用范围,首先通过理论推导,比较了产流误差动态系统响应曲线修正方法与产流误差平稳矩阵的系统响应修正方法的特点,比较结果表明后者具有更强的修正稳定性以及更好的修正效果;然后通过理想案例和实际案例对该方法应用效果和参数选取进行讨论,应用结果显示产流误差平稳矩阵的系统响应修正方法应用于达开水库流域具有较好的修正效果,明显提高了洪水预报精度;参数分析结果显示存在一个最优的权重系数使得修正效果达到最佳,并且在实际流域上权重系数取值幅度较大。
To further improve the accuracy of flood forecastingand expand the application scope of the errorcorrection method with runoff error smooth matrix based on system response,firstly the DSRC method andRESM method are theoretically deducted in this paper. The result shows that the latter method has strongercorrection stability and better correction effect. And then theparameters of the latter method are discussedby the ideal case and practical case in this paper. The results show that the latter method is applicable toDakai reservoir basin, which significantly improves the accuracy of flood forecasting. The analysis alsoshows that there is an optimal weight coefficient that makes the correction effect to achieve the best,andthe value range of the parameter is larger in actual watersheds than the ideal ones.
To further improve the accuracy of flood forecastingand expand the application scope of the errorcorrection method with runoff error smooth matrix based on system response,firstly the DSRC method andRESM method are theoretically deducted in this paper. The result shows that the latter method has strongercorrection stability and better correction effect. And then theparameters of the latter method are discussedby the ideal case and practical case in this paper. The results show that the latter method is applicable toDakai reservoir basin, which significantly improves the accuracy of flood forecasting. The analysis alsoshows that there is an optimal weight coefficient that makes the correction effect to achieve the best,andthe value range of the parameter is larger in actual watersheds than the ideal ones.
引文
[1]BRATH A,MONTANARI A,TOTH E.networks and non-parametric methods for improving real-time flood through conceptual hydrological models[J].Hydrology and Earth System Science,2002,6(4):627-640.
[2]王厥谋,乐嘉祥.1991年中国的洪水和洪水预报[C]//第二次中美水文情报预报研讨会论文集.1995.
[3]王猛.石佛寺水库洪水预报及其实时修正方法研究[D].大连:大连理工大学,2012.
[4]李致家.现代水文模拟与预报技术[M].南京:河海大学出版社,2010.
[5]周轶,菅浩然,李致家,等.基于递推最小二乘改进算法的洪水预报模型研究[J].河海大学学报,2007,35(1):77-80.
[6]WU X L,XIANG X H,WANG C H,et al.Coupled Hydraulic and Kalman Filter Model for Real-Time Correction of Flood Forecast in the Three Gorges Interzone of Yangtze River,China[J].Journal of Hydrologic Engineering,2013,18:1416-1425.
[7]王船海,白耀玲.基于卡尔曼滤波技术的河道汇流实时校正[J].河海大学学报,2007,35(2):181-187.
[8]郭磊,赵英林.基于误差自回归的洪水实时预报校正算法的研究[J].水电能源科学,2002,20(3):25-27.
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[10]BAO W M,SI W,QU S M.Flow Updating in Real-Time Flood Forecasting Based on Runoff Correction by a Dynamic System Response Curve[J].Journal of Hydrologic Engineering,2014,19:747-756.
[11]司伟,包为民,瞿思敏.洪水预报产流误差的动态系统响应曲线修正方法[J].水科学进展,2013,24(4):497-503.
[12]刘可新,包为民,李佳佳,等.基于系统响应理论的分水源误差修正[J].水电能源科学,2014,11:44-47.
[13]张小琴,刘可新,包为民,等.产流误差比例系数的系统响应修正方法[J].水科学进展,2014,25(6):789-796.
[14]杨姗姗,包为民,杨小强,等.微分响应在降雨修正中的应用[J].中国农村水利水电,2015(11):75-79.
[15]刘可新,包为民,赖善证,等.产流误差动态系统响应曲线修正方法在乌溪沟流域的应用[J].中国农村水利水电,2014(12):24-26.
[16]SI W,BAO W M,WANG H Y,et al.The research of rainfall error correction based on system reponse curve[C]//GBMCE2013.335-339.
[17]SI W,BAO W M,GUPTA H V.Updating real-time flood forecasts via the dynamic system response curve method[J].Water Resources Research.2015,51(7):5128-5144.doi:10.1002/2015WR017234.
[18]阙家骏,包为民.产流误差的动态系统响应曲线修正方法应用[J].三峡大学学报(自然科学版),2014,36(6):6-9.
[19]BAO W M,ZHAO L P.Application of Linearized Calibration Method for Vertically Mixed Runoff Model Parameters[J].Journal of Hydrologic Engineering,2014,19(8):481-486.
[20]刘可新,张小琴,包为民,等.产流误差平稳矩阵的系统响应修正方法[J].水利学报,2015,46(8):960-966.
[2]王厥谋,乐嘉祥.1991年中国的洪水和洪水预报[C]//第二次中美水文情报预报研讨会论文集.1995.
[3]王猛.石佛寺水库洪水预报及其实时修正方法研究[D].大连:大连理工大学,2012.
[4]李致家.现代水文模拟与预报技术[M].南京:河海大学出版社,2010.
[5]周轶,菅浩然,李致家,等.基于递推最小二乘改进算法的洪水预报模型研究[J].河海大学学报,2007,35(1):77-80.
[6]WU X L,XIANG X H,WANG C H,et al.Coupled Hydraulic and Kalman Filter Model for Real-Time Correction of Flood Forecast in the Three Gorges Interzone of Yangtze River,China[J].Journal of Hydrologic Engineering,2013,18:1416-1425.
[7]王船海,白耀玲.基于卡尔曼滤波技术的河道汇流实时校正[J].河海大学学报,2007,35(2):181-187.
[8]郭磊,赵英林.基于误差自回归的洪水实时预报校正算法的研究[J].水电能源科学,2002,20(3):25-27.
[9]包为民,司伟,沈国华,等.基于单位线反演的产流误差修正[J].水科学进展,2012,23(3):315-322.
[10]BAO W M,SI W,QU S M.Flow Updating in Real-Time Flood Forecasting Based on Runoff Correction by a Dynamic System Response Curve[J].Journal of Hydrologic Engineering,2014,19:747-756.
[11]司伟,包为民,瞿思敏.洪水预报产流误差的动态系统响应曲线修正方法[J].水科学进展,2013,24(4):497-503.
[12]刘可新,包为民,李佳佳,等.基于系统响应理论的分水源误差修正[J].水电能源科学,2014,11:44-47.
[13]张小琴,刘可新,包为民,等.产流误差比例系数的系统响应修正方法[J].水科学进展,2014,25(6):789-796.
[14]杨姗姗,包为民,杨小强,等.微分响应在降雨修正中的应用[J].中国农村水利水电,2015(11):75-79.
[15]刘可新,包为民,赖善证,等.产流误差动态系统响应曲线修正方法在乌溪沟流域的应用[J].中国农村水利水电,2014(12):24-26.
[16]SI W,BAO W M,WANG H Y,et al.The research of rainfall error correction based on system reponse curve[C]//GBMCE2013.335-339.
[17]SI W,BAO W M,GUPTA H V.Updating real-time flood forecasts via the dynamic system response curve method[J].Water Resources Research.2015,51(7):5128-5144.doi:10.1002/2015WR017234.
[18]阙家骏,包为民.产流误差的动态系统响应曲线修正方法应用[J].三峡大学学报(自然科学版),2014,36(6):6-9.
[19]BAO W M,ZHAO L P.Application of Linearized Calibration Method for Vertically Mixed Runoff Model Parameters[J].Journal of Hydrologic Engineering,2014,19(8):481-486.
[20]刘可新,张小琴,包为民,等.产流误差平稳矩阵的系统响应修正方法[J].水利学报,2015,46(8):960-966.