浙江省电力消费量与产业结构关联度的时空变化研究
|
摘要
利用灰色关联分析法对浙江省1990—2015年电力消费量与产业结构关联度作了动态的定量分析,确定了不同时期浙江省电力消费量的主要影响因子及其与产业结构发展的关联度;对浙江省下辖11个地市2000—2015年电力消费量与产业结构关联度作了定量分析,确定了11个地市近15年以来电力消费量与产业结构的关联度,并进一步用聚类方法对11个地市进行了空间差异分析,结果表明:受地区经济发展水平和产业结构的影响,11个地市的电力消费量与产业结构的关联度有明显的空间差异。
The article analyzed quantitative the dynamic changes of the correlation degree between electricity consumption and industrial structure from 1990 to 2015 in Zhejiang province by using the Grey Relational Analysis method. The main impact factors of electricity consumption in different periods and their correlation relationship with the industrial structure are determined. At the same time, based on the correlation degree between electricity consumption and industrial structure in 11 cities of Zhejiang Province from 2000 to 2015, the article explored the spatial variation of correlation degree between electricity consumption and industrial structure in Zhejiang Province by using the cluster analysis. The results show obvious spatial differences on correlation degree between the electricity consumption and industrial structure in the 11 cities, influenced by the development level of local economy and industry structure.
The article analyzed quantitative the dynamic changes of the correlation degree between electricity consumption and industrial structure from 1990 to 2015 in Zhejiang province by using the Grey Relational Analysis method. The main impact factors of electricity consumption in different periods and their correlation relationship with the industrial structure are determined. At the same time, based on the correlation degree between electricity consumption and industrial structure in 11 cities of Zhejiang Province from 2000 to 2015, the article explored the spatial variation of correlation degree between electricity consumption and industrial structure in Zhejiang Province by using the cluster analysis. The results show obvious spatial differences on correlation degree between the electricity consumption and industrial structure in the 11 cities, influenced by the development level of local economy and industry structure.
引文
[1]胡杰,刘继成,张忠华.东北区域近期用电需求与经济发展相关性分析[J].东北电力技术,2015(10):56-59.
[2]赵家瑶,胡军峰.电力消费量的影响因素分析[J].农村电气化,2013(4):18-19.
[3]黄晨宏.影响上海电力需求的主要因素及电力需求预测[J].电力需求侧管理,2011(3):72-76.
[4]牛东晓,曹树华,赵磊,等.电力负荷预测技术及其应用[M].北京:中国电力出版社,1998.
[5]沈亮.浙江省产业结构演变与电力消费变动关系研究[D].杭州:浙江财经大学,2013.
[6]潘雄锋,李良玉.我国电力消费强度与产业结构的变动趋势研究[J].中国科技论坛,2009(7):68-72.
[7]吴争,王小英,周琪,等.宏观经济与电力需求关系对江苏电力市场发展的启示[J].电力需求侧管理,2014,16(4):16-20.
[8]Soytas U,Sari R.Energy consumption and GDP:causality in G-7 countries and emerging markets[J].Energy economics,2003(25):33-37.
[9]Huang B N,Hwang M J,Yang C W.Causal relationship between energy consumption and GDP growth revisited:a dynamic panel data approach[J].Ecological Economics,2008(67):41-54.
[10]Chen S T,Kuo H I,Chen C C.The relationship between GDP and electricity consumption in 10 Asian countries[J].Energy Policy,2007(35):2 611-2 621.
[11]林伯强.电力消费与中国经济增长:基于生产函数的研究[J].管理世界,2003(11):18-27.
[12]张伟,张金锁,袁显平.工业化、经济增长与能源消费—基于中国分省面板数据的实证分析[J].统计与信息论坛,2012,27(1):60-66.
[13]张丽峰.中国能源、环境、工业化与经济增长关系的实证分析[J].技术经济,2009,28(4):109-112.
[14]郭志军,李飞,覃巍.中国产业结构变动对能源消费影响的协整分析[J].工业技术经济,2007,26(11):97-101.
[15]史丹,张金隆.产业结构变动对能源消费的影响[J].经济理论与经济管理,2003(8):30-32.
[16]李世祥.中国工业化进程中的能耗特征及能效提升途径[J].中国软科学,2010(7):23-34.
[17]刘思峰.灰色系统理论的产生与发展[J].南京航空航天大学学报,2004,36(2):267-272.
[18]夏伟怀.影响铁路运输企业竞争力的灰色关联分析[J].长沙铁道学院学报,2002,20(3):66-70.
[19]邓聚龙.灰色系统基本方法[M].武汉:华中工学院出版社,1987.
[20]何晓群.多元统计分析[M].北京:中国人民大学出版社,2013.
[2]赵家瑶,胡军峰.电力消费量的影响因素分析[J].农村电气化,2013(4):18-19.
[3]黄晨宏.影响上海电力需求的主要因素及电力需求预测[J].电力需求侧管理,2011(3):72-76.
[4]牛东晓,曹树华,赵磊,等.电力负荷预测技术及其应用[M].北京:中国电力出版社,1998.
[5]沈亮.浙江省产业结构演变与电力消费变动关系研究[D].杭州:浙江财经大学,2013.
[6]潘雄锋,李良玉.我国电力消费强度与产业结构的变动趋势研究[J].中国科技论坛,2009(7):68-72.
[7]吴争,王小英,周琪,等.宏观经济与电力需求关系对江苏电力市场发展的启示[J].电力需求侧管理,2014,16(4):16-20.
[8]Soytas U,Sari R.Energy consumption and GDP:causality in G-7 countries and emerging markets[J].Energy economics,2003(25):33-37.
[9]Huang B N,Hwang M J,Yang C W.Causal relationship between energy consumption and GDP growth revisited:a dynamic panel data approach[J].Ecological Economics,2008(67):41-54.
[10]Chen S T,Kuo H I,Chen C C.The relationship between GDP and electricity consumption in 10 Asian countries[J].Energy Policy,2007(35):2 611-2 621.
[11]林伯强.电力消费与中国经济增长:基于生产函数的研究[J].管理世界,2003(11):18-27.
[12]张伟,张金锁,袁显平.工业化、经济增长与能源消费—基于中国分省面板数据的实证分析[J].统计与信息论坛,2012,27(1):60-66.
[13]张丽峰.中国能源、环境、工业化与经济增长关系的实证分析[J].技术经济,2009,28(4):109-112.
[14]郭志军,李飞,覃巍.中国产业结构变动对能源消费影响的协整分析[J].工业技术经济,2007,26(11):97-101.
[15]史丹,张金隆.产业结构变动对能源消费的影响[J].经济理论与经济管理,2003(8):30-32.
[16]李世祥.中国工业化进程中的能耗特征及能效提升途径[J].中国软科学,2010(7):23-34.
[17]刘思峰.灰色系统理论的产生与发展[J].南京航空航天大学学报,2004,36(2):267-272.
[18]夏伟怀.影响铁路运输企业竞争力的灰色关联分析[J].长沙铁道学院学报,2002,20(3):66-70.
[19]邓聚龙.灰色系统基本方法[M].武汉:华中工学院出版社,1987.
[20]何晓群.多元统计分析[M].北京:中国人民大学出版社,2013.