油气资源评价方法的分类、内涵与外延
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摘要
根据计算基础、计算方式、计算过程的不同,可将油气资源评价方法分为成因法、统计法、类比法3大类,并且这3类评价方法可进一步细分。通过对不同油气资源评价方法的实质与关键问题分析,认为成因法实质上是一种"模拟法",不同成因法的计算侧重点有所不同,计算过程可看做"递减"模式;统计法通过分析各种统计数据来计算油气资源量,实质上是一种"数据法",计算过程可看做"递增"模式;类比法通过与刻度区的相似性来确定预测区中油气资源的富集程度,其计算结果往往会受一些敏感参数的影响,实质上是一种"主观认识法",计算过程可看做"中值"模式。对不同评价对象与不同勘探程度地区需要选择适用的评价方法,以提高可靠程度。本文还讨论了一种新的资源量结果综合法,即结果区间法,可更直观地分析资源量计算结果的分布范围,提高最终结果的准确度。
According to differences in calculation principles, modes and processes, evaluation methods for oil and gas resources can be classified into three major categories, namely genetic methods, statistical methods, and analogical methods. These three types of methods can be further divided into subcategories. By studying the nature and the key problems of different evaluation methods for oil and gas resources, it is believed that genetic methods can be considered"simulation methods"in nature. Each genetic method has its own computing focus and calculations can be viewed as a"gradually decreasing"mode. Meanwhile,statistical methods estimate oil and gas resources through analyzing data, so they can be called"data methods". Their calculation processes can be viewed as a"gradual increasing"mode. Lastly, analogical methods determine the degree of enrichment of oil and gas resources in the prediction area based on the area's similarity with respect to a calibration area. The calculation results are often influenced by some sensitive parameters. These methods are"subjective cognition methods"and their calculation processes can be viewed as a"median". Some suitable evaluation methods must be selected in order to enhance reliability in different evaluation or exploration areas. This paper also discusses a new way to integrate resource amounts. This interval method can be used to more intuitively analyze resource coverage and enhance the accuracy of the final results.
According to differences in calculation principles, modes and processes, evaluation methods for oil and gas resources can be classified into three major categories, namely genetic methods, statistical methods, and analogical methods. These three types of methods can be further divided into subcategories. By studying the nature and the key problems of different evaluation methods for oil and gas resources, it is believed that genetic methods can be considered"simulation methods"in nature. Each genetic method has its own computing focus and calculations can be viewed as a"gradually decreasing"mode. Meanwhile,statistical methods estimate oil and gas resources through analyzing data, so they can be called"data methods". Their calculation processes can be viewed as a"gradual increasing"mode. Lastly, analogical methods determine the degree of enrichment of oil and gas resources in the prediction area based on the area's similarity with respect to a calibration area. The calculation results are often influenced by some sensitive parameters. These methods are"subjective cognition methods"and their calculation processes can be viewed as a"median". Some suitable evaluation methods must be selected in order to enhance reliability in different evaluation or exploration areas. This paper also discusses a new way to integrate resource amounts. This interval method can be used to more intuitively analyze resource coverage and enhance the accuracy of the final results.
引文
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[2]金之钧,张金川.油气资源评价技术[M].北京:石油工业出版社,1999.JIN Zhijun, ZHANG Jinchuan. Petroleum resource assessment techniques[M]. Beijing:Petroleum Industry Press, 1999.
[3] LEE P J, WANG P C. PRIMES:A petroleum resources information management and evaluation system[J]. Oil and Gas Journal, 1984, 82(40):204-206.
[4]郭秋麟,谢红兵,黄旭楠,等.油气资源评价方法体系与应用[M].北京:石油工业出版社,2016.GUO Qiulin, XIE Hongbing, HUANG Xunan, et al. Oil and gas resources evaluation methods system and application[M]. Beijing:Petroleum Industry Press, 2016.
[5]赵文智,胡素云,沈成喜,等.油气资源评价的总体思路和方法体系[J].石油学报,2005, 26(增刊):12-18.doi:10.7623/syxb2005S1003ZHAO Wenzhi, HU Suyun, SHEN Chengxi, et al. New advancements of oil and gas resource assessment methods[J].Acta Petrolei Sinica, 2005, 26(S1):25-29. doi:10.7623/-syxb2005S1003
[6]金之钧,张金川.油气资源评价方法的基本原则[J].石油学报,2002, 23(1):19-23. doi:10.7623/-syxb200201004JIN Zhijun, ZHANG Jinchuan. Fundamental principles for petroleum resources assessments[J]. Acta Petrolei Sinica,2002, 23(1):19-23. doi:10.7623/syxb200201004
[7]刘成林,车长波.常规与非常规油气资源评价方法与应用[M].北京:地质出版社,2012.LIU Chenglin, CHE Changbo. Evaluation method and application of conventional and unconventional oil and gas resources[M]. Beijing:Geological Publishing House,2012.
[8]吴晓智,王社教,郑民,等.常规与非常规油气资源评价技术规范体系建立及意义[J].天然气地球科学,2016, 27(9):1640-1650. doi:10.11764/j.issn.1672-1926.2016.09.1640WU Xiaozhi, WANG Shejiao, ZHENG Min, et al. Standard system establishment for conventional and unconventional hydrocarbon resources assessment techniques and its significancet[J]. Natural Gas Geoscience, 2016, 27(9):1640-1650. doi:10.11764/j.issn.1672-1926.2016.09.1640
[9] MENELEY R A,CALVERLEY A E,LOGAN K G,et al. Resource assessment methodologies:Current status and future direction[J]. AAPG Bulletin, 2003, 87(4):535-540.doi:10.1306/10180202006
[10] LEE P J. Statistical methods for estimating petroleum resources[M]. Oxford:Oxford University Press, 2008.
[11]胡素云,郭秋麟,谌卓恒,等.油气空间分布预测方法[J].石油勘探与开发,2007, 34(1):113-117. doi:10.3321/j.issn:1000-0747.2007.01.022HU Suyun, GUO Qiulin, CHEN Zhuoheng, et al. A method of predictingpetroleum resource spatial distribution and its application[J]. Petroleum Exploration and Development, 2007, 34(1):113-117. doi:10.3321/j.issn:1000-0747.2007.01.022
[12]卢双舫,李吉军,杨峰平,等.齐波夫方法在天然气储量预测中的应用[J].天然气工业,2004, 24(4):13-14.doi:10.3321/j.issn:1000-0976.2004.04.005LU Shuangfang, LI Jijun, YANG Fengping, et al. Application of Zipf s law in predicting the natural gas reserves[J].Natural Gas Industry, 2004, 24(4):13-14. doi:10.3321/j.-issn:1000-0976.2004.04.005
[13] CHEN Zhuoheng. Undiscovered petroleum accumulation mapping using model-based stochastic simulation[J]. Mathematical Geology, 2006, 38(1):1-16. doi:10.1007/-s11004-005-9000-1
[14]陈元千,郝明强,李飞.油气资源量评估方法的对比与评论[J].断块油气田,2013, 20(4):447-453. doi:10.6056/dkyqt201304010CHEN Yuanqian, HAO Mingqiang, LI Fei. Comparison and review of estimating methods of oil and gas resources[J]. Fault-block Oil&Gas Field, 2013, 20(4):447-453. doi:10.6056/dkyqt201304010
[15]盛秀杰,金之钧,鄢琦,等.成藏体系油气资源评价中的统计方法体系[J].石油与天然气地质,2013, 34(6):827-833. doi:10.11743/ogg20130617SHENG Xiujie, JIN Zhijun, YAN Qi, et al. Statistical method series for the resource assessment of petroleum accumulation system[J]. Oil&Gas Geology, 2013, 34(6):827-833. doi:10.11743/ogg20130617
[16]郭秋麟,陈宁生,刘成林,等.油气资源评价方法研究进展与新一代评价软件系统[J].石油学报,2015,36(10):1305-1314. doi:10.7623/syxb201510014GUO Qiulin, CHEN Ningsheng, LIU Chenglin, et al.Research advance of hydrocarbon resource assessment method and a new assessment software system[J]. Acta Petrolei Sinica, 2015, 36(10):1305-1314. doi:10.7623/-syxb201510014
[17]周庆凡,张亚雄.油气资源量含义和评价思路的探讨[J].石油与天然气地质,2011,32(3):474-480. doi:10.11743/ogg20110320ZHOU Qingfan, ZHANG Yaxiong. A discussion on petroleum resource concepts and assessment approaches[J].Oil&Gas Geology, 2011,32(3):474-480. doi:10.11743/-ogg20110320
[18]李建忠,吴晓智,郑民,等.常规与非常规油气资源评价的总体思路、方法体系与关键技术[J].天然气地球科学,2016,27(9):1557-1565. doi:10.11764/j.issn.1672-1926.2016.09.1557LI Jianzhong, WU Xiaozhi, ZHENG Min, et al. Gen-eral philosophy,method system and key technology of conventional and unconventional oil&gas resource assessment[J]. Natural Gas Geoscience, 2016, 27(9):1557-1565. doi:10.11764/j.issn.1672-1926.2016.09.1557
[19] AHLBRANDT T S, KLETT T R. Comparison of methods used to estimate conventional undiscovered petroleum resources:World examples[J]. Natural Resources Research,2005, 14(3):187-209. doi:10.1007/s11053-005-8076-0
[20] ATTANASI E D, CHARPENTIER R R. Comparison of two probability distrihution, used to model sizes of undiscovered oil and gas accumulations:Does the tail wag the assessment[J]. Mathematical Geology,2002,34(6):767-777. doi:10.1023/A:1019809410934
[21] OLEA R A, COOK T A, COLEMAN J I. A methodology for the assessment of unconventional(continuous)resources with an application to the greater natural buttes gas field, Utah[J]. Natural Resources Research, 2010, 19(4):237-251. doi:10.1007/s11053-010-9127-8
[22]张湘宁,任宏斌,张学文.对外合作油气资源评价方法探讨[J].石油学报,2003, 24(1):9-14. doi:10.7623/-syxb200301002ZHANG Xiangning, REN Hongbin, ZHANG Xuewen.Discussion on resources assessment of PetroChina methodology in cooperation projects with foreign oil company[J]. Acta Petrolei Sinica,2003, 24(1):9-14. doi:10.7623/syxb200301002
[23]陈元千,唐玮.评Lee的油气资源量发现过程模型及预测模型的建立[J].新疆石油地质,2016, 37(4):442-446. doi:10.7657/XJPG20160410CHEN Yuanqian, TANG Wei. Review of Lee's discovery processmodel for petroleum resources and establishment of predictionmodel[J]. Xinjiang Petroleum Geology, 2016,37(4):442-446. doi:10.7657/XJPG20160410
[24]刘广野.油气资源分类及评价方法[J].海洋地质动态,2009,25(3):32-36. doi:10.3969/j.issn. 1009-2722.-2009.03.008LIU Guangye. Petroleum resources classification and the evaluation method[J]. Marine Geology Letters, 2009,25(3):32-36. doi:10.3969/j.issn.1009-2722.2009.03.008
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