1978-2011年呼图壁河径流的变化趋势
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摘要
[目的]分析新疆维吾尔自治区呼图壁河径流变化特征与长期变化趋势,为制定科学合理的呼图壁地区水资源供需平衡发展战略提供理论支撑。[方法]采用变差系数法、距平累积法、Mann-Kendall非参数秩次相关检验法及Morlet连续复小波变换对呼图壁河石门水文站1978—2011年实测日流量资料进行分析。[结果]呼图壁河径流的年内变化主要受降水与气温的影响,其主要径流产生于5—9月,汛期为6—8月,径流量占全年径流量的69.4%,枯水期为12月至次年3月。呼图壁河的Cv平均值为0.149。近34a来径流量整体呈现出不显著的增加趋势,径流量的年际变化小,年际间持续枯水与持续丰水的时间几乎相同。此外,呼图壁河年径流存在4个较为显著的周期波动,其中18和29a分别为径流量年际变化的第Ⅰ、第Ⅱ主周期。[结论]呼图壁河近34a来径流量呈增加趋势,径流量的年际变化呈现出较为显著的周期性,径流量的年内分配很不均匀。
[Objective]The variation characteristics and long-term trends of Hutubi river were analyzed for providing theoretical support for the development,which is the strategy of supply and demand balance of water resources in Hutubi area of Xinjiang Wei Autonomous Region.[Methods]The measured data of daily runoff from Shimen hydrological station of Hutubi river during 1978—2011 were analyzed by using the methods of coefficient of variation,anomalies accumulation,Man—Kendall nonparametric rank correlation test and continuous complex Morlet wavelet transform.[Results]Changes in the Hutubi river runoff during the year was mainly affected by precipitation and temperature.Its main runoff derived from May to September,and its flood season from June to August accounted for 69.4%of the annual runoff,the low flow season was from December to March of the next year.Hutubi river average coefficient of variation was 0.149 during the 34 years.The annual runoff overall showed slight increasing trend.The annual runoff variation of Hutubi river was small,its continuous low water was almost identical with the duration of the wet among years.Besides,there were four more significant cycle fluctuations of the runoff.The 18-year was the first main cycle of runoff change,and the 29-year was the second.[Conclusion]In recent 34 years,the runoff was increased in Hutubi river.At the same time,the interannual variation of runoff showed obvious periodicity.In addition,the runoff annual distribution was serious uneven.
[Objective]The variation characteristics and long-term trends of Hutubi river were analyzed for providing theoretical support for the development,which is the strategy of supply and demand balance of water resources in Hutubi area of Xinjiang Wei Autonomous Region.[Methods]The measured data of daily runoff from Shimen hydrological station of Hutubi river during 1978—2011 were analyzed by using the methods of coefficient of variation,anomalies accumulation,Man—Kendall nonparametric rank correlation test and continuous complex Morlet wavelet transform.[Results]Changes in the Hutubi river runoff during the year was mainly affected by precipitation and temperature.Its main runoff derived from May to September,and its flood season from June to August accounted for 69.4%of the annual runoff,the low flow season was from December to March of the next year.Hutubi river average coefficient of variation was 0.149 during the 34 years.The annual runoff overall showed slight increasing trend.The annual runoff variation of Hutubi river was small,its continuous low water was almost identical with the duration of the wet among years.Besides,there were four more significant cycle fluctuations of the runoff.The 18-year was the first main cycle of runoff change,and the 29-year was the second.[Conclusion]In recent 34 years,the runoff was increased in Hutubi river.At the same time,the interannual variation of runoff showed obvious periodicity.In addition,the runoff annual distribution was serious uneven.
引文
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[17]普宗朝,张山清,李景林,等.气候变化对呼图壁河径流量的影响[J].沙漠与绿洲气象,2007,1(5):44-47.
[2]迪丽努尔·阿吉,艾克巴尔.新疆主要河流径流量变化的时空特征研究[J].干旱区资源与环境,2009,23(11):100-104.
[3]秦大河,丁一汇,王绍武,等.中国西部生态环境变化与对策建议[J].地球科学进展,2002,17(3):314-319.
[4]耿峻岭,高玲,陈建江,等.新疆呼图壁河流域水文特征分析[J].干旱区研究,2005,22(3):371-376.
[5]白东明,李卫红,郝兴明,等.新疆呼图壁河流域径流时序变化特征[J].中国水土保持科学,2007,5(3):19-23.
[6]刘晓黎,黄强,吕玉洁,等.洮河流域径流变化特征分析[J].干旱区资源与环境,2008,22(9):97-101.
[7]王振龙,陈玺,郝振纯,等.淮河干流径流量长期变化趋势及周期分析[J].水文,2011,31(6):79-85.
[8]曹建延,秦大河,罗勇.长江源区年径流量变化分析[J].水科学进展,2007,18(1):29-33.
[9]穆兴民,李靖,王飞,等.黄河天然径流量年际变化过程分析[J].干旱区资源与环境,2003,17(2):1-5.
[10]郭小芹,刘明春,钱莉.从Mann—Kendall特征看石羊河流域降水量的演变规律[J].干旱区地理,2010,33(4):593-599.
[11]宋小燕,穆兴民,高鹏,等.松花江哈尔滨站近100年来径流量变化趋势[J].自然资源学报,2009,24(10):1803-1809.
[12]秦年秀,姜彤,等.长江流域径流趋势变化及突变分析[J].长江流域资源与环境,2005,14(5):589-594.
[13]吕静渭,马孝义,高文强.近70年来泾河年径流量周期变化的小波分析[J].人民黄河,2010,32(2):49-51.
[14]蒋艳,周成虎,程维明.新疆阿克苏河流域年径流时序特征分析[J].地理科学进展,2005,24(1):87-96.
[15]蒋晓辉,刘昌明,黄强.黄河上中游天然径流多时间尺度变化及动因分析[J].自然资源学报,2003,18(2):142-147.
[16]刘冀,董晓华,李帅.基于小波消噪的径流趋势变化对比分析[J].水电能源科学,2009,27(9):4-7.
[17]普宗朝,张山清,李景林,等.气候变化对呼图壁河径流量的影响[J].沙漠与绿洲气象,2007,1(5):44-47.
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