输配电价改革对省级电网投资的影响及动态评估方法
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摘要
作为我国新一轮电力体制改革的重点内容,输配电价改革将深刻影响电网公司运营的投资和规划等诸多方面。首先根据输配电价改革的政策方案,建立了省级电网输配电价的核算模型。在此基础之上,提出一种基于系统动力学模型的输配电价改革对电网投资影响的动态评估方法。该方法综合考虑了电网投资评估、电网规划模式和政府监管政策3个方面的影响因素,建立了输配电价与电网投资容量随时间演变的模型,并建立了二者之间因果反馈的量化关系。基于案例仿真计算,量化分析了输配电价改革对省级电网投资的影响及其各种影响因素。
As a key content of the new round of power system reform in China, reform of transmission and distribution price(TDP) will profoundly affect investment and planning of power grid corporations and many other aspects. In this paper, based on policies of the TDP reform, an accounting model of provincial power grid TDP is established. On this basis, an evaluation method based on system dynamics model is proposed for analyzing the impact of the TDP reform on power grid investment. Considering three influencing factors, i.e. grid investment evaluation, grid planning mode and government regulation policy, a model for TDP evolution and power grid investment capacity is established, and quantitative relationship between causal feedbacks of these two variables is established. Based on case simulation, impact of the TDP reform on provincial grid investment and its various influencing factors are quantitatively analyzed.
As a key content of the new round of power system reform in China, reform of transmission and distribution price(TDP) will profoundly affect investment and planning of power grid corporations and many other aspects. In this paper, based on policies of the TDP reform, an accounting model of provincial power grid TDP is established. On this basis, an evaluation method based on system dynamics model is proposed for analyzing the impact of the TDP reform on power grid investment. Considering three influencing factors, i.e. grid investment evaluation, grid planning mode and government regulation policy, a model for TDP evolution and power grid investment capacity is established, and quantitative relationship between causal feedbacks of these two variables is established. Based on case simulation, impact of the TDP reform on provincial grid investment and its various influencing factors are quantitatively analyzed.
引文
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[18]Tao Sun,Lang Tong.Killing death spiral softly with a small connection charge[C]//Allerton Conference on Communication,Control,and Computing.Allerton Park:IEEE,2017.
[19]国家发展改革委,国家能源局.关于推进输配电价改革的实施意见(发改经体[2015]2752号)[Z].2015.
[20]王曦,刘汉仙.通货膨胀对投资决策影响的计算分析[J].中南民族学院学报(自然科学版),1998(S1):27-29.Wang Xi,Liu Hanxian.Inflation’s effects to investment decision and way to get rid of it[J].Journal of South-Central College for Nationalities(Nat.Sci.),1998(S1):27-29(in Chinese).
[21]刘文茂,吴建军,杨昆.电力市场中的市场力指标及表现形式[J].电网技术,2007,31(S2):211-214.Liu Wenmao,Wu Jianjun,Yang Kun.Index system for evaluating the market power and it’s representation in electricity market[J].Power System Technology,2007,31(S2):211-214(in Chinese).
[2]彭小东.省级电网输配电定价机制及实证研究[D].北京:华北电力大学(北京),2016.
[3]林文森,张毅威,丁超杰,等.欧洲输电费率的发展与现状[J].电网技术,2016,40(11):3316-3321.Lin Wensen,Zhang Yiwei,Ding Chaojie,et al.Development and status of transmission tariffs in Europe[J].Power System Technology,2016,40(11):3316-3321(in Chinese).
[4]夏清,孙正运.基于最佳供需匹配及“MW-Mile”的输电定价方法[J].电力系统自动化,2005,29(24):9-13.Xia Qing,Sun Zhengyuan.New transmission pricing method based on optimal supply-demand match and MW-Mile[J].Automation of Electric Power Systems,2005,29(24):9-13(in Chinese).
[5]张粒子,叶红豆,陈逍潇.基于峰荷责任的输配电价定价方法[J].电力系统自动化,2017,41(14):92-98.Zhang Lizi,Ye Hongdou,Chen Xiaoxiao.Transmission and distribution pricing method based on peak-load pricing[J].Automation of Electric Power Systems,2017,41(14):92-98(in Chinese).
[6]王伟,张粒子,程瑜.基于系统动力学的输电价格管制的研究[J].电力系统保护与控制,2009,37(3):11-15.Wang Wei,Zhang Lizi,Cheng Yu.Research on regulation of transmission price based on system dynamics[J].Power System Protection and Control,2009,37(3):11-15(in Chinese).
[7]马军杰,张敬岷,曾鸣.基于DEA标尺竞争的输配电价格监管模型[J].电网技术,2008,32(S2):193-195.Ma Junjie,Zhang Jingmin,Zeng Ming.Study on price regulation model of transmission and distribution based on the DEA[J].Power System Technology,2008,32(S2):193-195(in Chinese).
[8]Huang Chenyang,Chen Sijie,Yan Zheng.Electricity trading in global energy internet[C]//2017 IEEE Conference on Energy Internet and Energy System Integration(EI2).Beijing,China:IEEE,2017:1-5.
[9]中共中央,国务院.关于进一步深化电力体制改革的若干意见(中发[2015]9号)[Z].2015.
[10]国家发展改革委.省级电网输配电价定价办法(试行)(发改价格[2016]2711号)[Z].2016.
[11]陈煜,刘敦楠,叶彬,等.输配电价改革环境下电网最大投资能力研究[J].水电能源科学,2017,35(12):212-216.Chen Yu,Liu Dunnan,Ye Bin,et al.Research on the maximum investment capability of power grid in environment of transmission and distribution price reform[J].Water Resources and Power,2017,35(12):212-216(in Chinese).
[12]韩冬,严正,宋依群,等.基于系统动力学的智能电网动态评价方法[J].电力系统自动化,2012,36(3):16-21.Han Dong,Yan Zheng,Song Yiqun,et al.Dynamic assessment method for smart grid based on system dynamics[J].Automation of Electric Power Systems,2012,36(3):16-21(in Chinese).
[13]钟庆,吴捷,伍力,等.基于系统动力学的分区负荷预测[J].电网技术,2001,25(3):51-55.Zhong Qing,Wu Jie,Wu Li,et al.Subarea load forecasting based on system dynamics[J].Power System Technology,2001,25(3):51-55(in Chinese).
[14]王伟.电网投资规划的系统动力学建模与中压配电网络结构优化[D].北京:华北电力大学,2007.
[15]贺红波.市场运营环境下发电投资的风险决策和系统动力学模型研究[D].长沙:长沙理工大学,2008.
[16]王良.基于系统动力学的电网企业投资决策支持模型研究[D].北京:华北电力大学,2015.
[17]唐永胜,王良,李晨,等.基于系统动力学的输配电网投资规划仿真分析[J].水电能源科学,2014,32(7):164-168.Tang Yongsheng,Wang Liang,Li Chen,et al.Modeling and simulation for transmission and distribution grid investment planning based on system dynamic[J].Water Resources and Power,2014,32(7):164-168(in Chinese).
[18]Tao Sun,Lang Tong.Killing death spiral softly with a small connection charge[C]//Allerton Conference on Communication,Control,and Computing.Allerton Park:IEEE,2017.
[19]国家发展改革委,国家能源局.关于推进输配电价改革的实施意见(发改经体[2015]2752号)[Z].2015.
[20]王曦,刘汉仙.通货膨胀对投资决策影响的计算分析[J].中南民族学院学报(自然科学版),1998(S1):27-29.Wang Xi,Liu Hanxian.Inflation’s effects to investment decision and way to get rid of it[J].Journal of South-Central College for Nationalities(Nat.Sci.),1998(S1):27-29(in Chinese).
[21]刘文茂,吴建军,杨昆.电力市场中的市场力指标及表现形式[J].电网技术,2007,31(S2):211-214.Liu Wenmao,Wu Jianjun,Yang Kun.Index system for evaluating the market power and it’s representation in electricity market[J].Power System Technology,2007,31(S2):211-214(in Chinese).