基于空间自相关模型的铁路货流空间效应分析
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摘要
为探究铁路货流影响因素和空间效应,从空间角度把握货流的产生和变化规律,以全国各省域铁路货运往来数据为基础构建网络空间权重矩阵,对货流的空间自相关性进行探索,并建立空间自相关模型分析其边际效应。研究结果表明:铁路货流呈现出显著的空间自相关性;其中发送地GDP、距离与铁路货流呈负相关,到达地GDP、工业产品产量、铁路营业里程、发送地资源产量与铁路货流呈正相关;发送地空间自相关、到达地空间自相关和流的空间自相关都对铁路货流有重要的影响,因此在进行货流分析时需要考虑其空间效应。
In order to explore the spatial effects of railway freight flow, this paper established network spatial weight matrix based on the freight data, and constructed the SAR model then analyzed the marginal effect of the flow. The results show that the freight flow have obvious spatial autocorrelation; the GDP of origin and distance are negatively correlated with the flow, the GDP of destination, industrial product, the mileage of railway business, the resource of origin are positively correlated with the flow; the spatial autocorrelation of the origin, the spatial autocorrelation of destination and the spatial autocorrelation of OD flow all have an important impact of flow, so it need to take spatial effects into account in carrying out rail freight flow analysis.
In order to explore the spatial effects of railway freight flow, this paper established network spatial weight matrix based on the freight data, and constructed the SAR model then analyzed the marginal effect of the flow. The results show that the freight flow have obvious spatial autocorrelation; the GDP of origin and distance are negatively correlated with the flow, the GDP of destination, industrial product, the mileage of railway business, the resource of origin are positively correlated with the flow; the spatial autocorrelation of the origin, the spatial autocorrelation of destination and the spatial autocorrelation of OD flow all have an important impact of flow, so it need to take spatial effects into account in carrying out rail freight flow analysis.
引文
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[15]杨春,陆文聪.基于空间计经济模型的县域粮食生产区域格局研究[J].农业技术经济,2010(5):24-29.YANG Chun,LU Wencong.Study on the regional pattern of grain production in county based on spatial econometric model[J].Journal of Agrotechnical Economics,2010(5):24-29.
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[2]耿立艳,张天伟,赵鹏.基于灰色关联分析的LS-SVM铁路货运量预测[J].铁道学报,2012,34(3):1-6.GENG Liyan,ZHANG Tianwei,ZHAO Peng.Forecast of railway freight volumes based on LS-SVM with grey correlation analysis[J].Journal of the China Railway Society,2012,34(3):1-6.
[3]Black W R.Network autocorrelation in transport network and flow systems[J].Geographical Analysis,2010,24(3):207-222.
[4]Tobler W R.An alternative formulation for spatial interaction modeling[J].Environment&Planning A,1983,15(5):693-703.
[5]LU Qingchang,PENG Zhangren,ZHANG Liye,et al.Economic analyses of sea-level rise adaptation strategies in transportation considering spatial autocorrelation[J].Transportation Research Part D Transport&Environment,2014,33(33):87-94.
[6]Chun Y.Modeling network autocorrelation within migration flows by eigenvector spatial filtering[J].Journal of Geographical Systems,2008(10):317-344.
[7]Yoo J,Ready R.The impact of agricultural conservation easement on nearby house prices:incorporating spatial autocorrelation and spatial heterogeneity[J].Journal of Forest Economics,2016(25):78-93.
[8]Melecky L.Spatial autocorrelation method for local analysis of the EU[J].Procedia Economics&Finance,2015(23):1102-1109.
[9]Zipf G K.The hypothesis of the”Minimum Equation”as a unifying social principle:with attempted synthesis[J].Amercian Sociological Review,1947,12(6):627-650.
[10]Griffith D A,Jones K G.Explorations into the relationship between spatial structure and spatial interaction[J].Environment&Planning A,1980,12(2):187-201.
[11]李瑞,代明睿,李凤姿.基于灰色关联度的铁路货运量关键影响因子选取方法研究[J].铁道货运,2015(11):11-14.LI Rui,DAI Mingrui,LI Fengzi.The research of the key factors of railway freight volume based on grey relational analysis[J].Railway Freight Transport,2015(11):11-14.
[12]梅晓玲.基于灰色关联与投影算法的铁路货运量影响因素分析[J].四川理工学院学报(自科版),2015,28(5):85-88.MEI Xiaoling.Analysis of influencing factors of railway freight volume based on grey relational analysis and projection algorithm[J].Journal of Sichuan University of Science&Engineering(Natural Science),2015,28(5):85-88.
[13]Cliff A D,Ord J K.Spatial processes:models&applications[J].Quarterly Review of Biology,1982,57(2):236.
[14]王晓玲.基于空间滞后模型的区域经济发展影响因素分析[J].大同大学学报(自然科学版),2013,29(1):6-9.WANG Xiaoling.Analysis of influencing factors of regional economic development based on spatial lag model[J].Journal of Datong University(Natural Science),2013,29(1):6-9.
[15]杨春,陆文聪.基于空间计经济模型的县域粮食生产区域格局研究[J].农业技术经济,2010(5):24-29.YANG Chun,LU Wencong.Study on the regional pattern of grain production in county based on spatial econometric model[J].Journal of Agrotechnical Economics,2010(5):24-29.
[16]Lesage J P,Thomas-Agnan C.Interpreting spatial economic origin-destination flow models[J].Journal of Regional Science,2015,55(2):188-208.
[17]马荣华,蒲英霞,马晓冬.GIS空间关联模式发现[M].北京:科学出版社,2007.MA Ronghua,PU Yingxia,MA Xiaodong.Mining spatial association patterns from GIS database[M].Beijing:Science Press,2007.