气候变化下蒙古沙拐枣(Calligonum mongolicum)适宜生境预测
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摘要
蒙古沙拐枣(Calligonum mongolicum)是中国干旱、荒漠地区主要的防风固沙植物,预测该气候变化对其地理分布范围的影响,对中国荒漠化防治工作具有指导意义。采用获得的蒙古沙拐枣108个种群分布数据和22个气候环境因子数据,利用最大熵(MaxEnt)模型软件预测蒙古沙拐枣在当前、2041—2060年及2061—2080年在中国干旱区的潜在地理分布,探究气候变化对该物种分布的可能影响。结果表明:(1)影响蒙古沙拐枣分布的主要气候环境因子为年降水量、年平均气温、气温年较差、最干季降雨量以及海拔;(2)目前,蒙古沙拐枣的适宜生境面积约为5.4×10~5 km~2,高适宜生境为7×10~4 km~2,主要分布在新疆塔里木盆地、准噶尔盆地边缘地带、甘肃河西走廊及其周边、腾格里沙漠;(3)在未来气候变化的情景下,蒙古沙拐枣的适宜生境范围大幅增加,适宜生境向高纬度地区移动,高适宜生境集中分布于甘肃河西走廊以及腾格里沙漠地区,且呈带状分布。
Calligonum mongolicum is an important windbreak and sand fixing plant in arid and desert areas of China.Revealing the spatial distribution of this species and understanding the potential impacts of climate warming on its future distribution are critical for desertification control in China. In this study, the potential geographic distribution of C.mongolicum in current, 2041-2060 and 2061-2080 was simulated using MaxEntsoftware based on species presence data and 22 environmental variables. The results showed that:(1) the main climatic and environmental factors affecting the distribution of C.mongolicum are annual precipitation, annual mean air temperature,temperature annual range,temperature annual range and altitude;(2) at present, the suitable habitat area of C.mongolicum is about 5.4×10~5 km~2, the high suitable habitat is 7×10~4 km~2, mainly distributed in the Tarim Basin, the edge zone of the Junggar basinin Xinjiang;The Hexi Corridor and its surrounding, and the Tengger Desert in Gansu Province;(3) in the future climate change, the suitable habitat of the C.mongolicum is greatly increased, and the suitable habitat is moved to the high latitudes.The high suitable habitat centralized distributionin the Hexi Corridor of Gansu and the Tengger Desert.
Calligonum mongolicum is an important windbreak and sand fixing plant in arid and desert areas of China.Revealing the spatial distribution of this species and understanding the potential impacts of climate warming on its future distribution are critical for desertification control in China. In this study, the potential geographic distribution of C.mongolicum in current, 2041-2060 and 2061-2080 was simulated using MaxEntsoftware based on species presence data and 22 environmental variables. The results showed that:(1) the main climatic and environmental factors affecting the distribution of C.mongolicum are annual precipitation, annual mean air temperature,temperature annual range,temperature annual range and altitude;(2) at present, the suitable habitat area of C.mongolicum is about 5.4×10~5 km~2, the high suitable habitat is 7×10~4 km~2, mainly distributed in the Tarim Basin, the edge zone of the Junggar basinin Xinjiang;The Hexi Corridor and its surrounding, and the Tengger Desert in Gansu Province;(3) in the future climate change, the suitable habitat of the C.mongolicum is greatly increased, and the suitable habitat is moved to the high latitudes.The high suitable habitat centralized distributionin the Hexi Corridor of Gansu and the Tengger Desert.
引文
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[19] 许仲林,彭焕华,彭守璋.物种分布模型的发展及评价方法[J].生态学报,2015,35(2):557-567.
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[28] 王运生,谢丙炎,万方浩,等.ROC曲线分析在评价入侵物种分布模型中的应用[J].生物多样性,2007,15(4):365-372.
[29] Pliscoff P,Luebert F,Hilger H H,et al.Effects of alternative sets of climatic predictors on species distribution models and associated estimates of extinction risk:a test with plants in an arid environment[J].Ecological Modelling,2014,288:166-177.
[2] 赵小仙,李毅,苏世平,等.3个地理种群蒙古沙拐枣同化枝解剖结构及抗旱性比较[J].中国沙漠,2014,34(5):1293-1300.
[3] 樊宝丽.风沙环境下沙拐枣(Calligonum mongolicum)自然更新策略研究[D].兰州:兰州大学,2017.
[4] 刘娜,冯缨,管开云,等.蒙古沙拐枣(Calligonum mongolicum)的地理分布[J].干旱区研究,2015,32(4):753-759.
[5] 刘娜,冯缨,管开云,等.蒙古沙拐枣(Calligonum mongolicum)的地理分布与气候关系[J].干旱区研究,2015,32(5):934-940.
[6] Elith J,Leathwick J R.Speciesdistribution models:ecological explanation and prediction across space and time[J].Annual Review of Ecology Evolution & Systematics,2009,40(1):677-697.
[7] Elith J,Phillips S J,Hastie T,et al.A statistical explanation of MaxEnt for ecologists[J].Diversity & Distributions,2015,17(1):43-57.
[8] 朱耿平,乔慧捷.Maxent模型复杂度对物种潜在分布区预测的影响[J].生物多样性,2016,24(10):1189-1196.
[9] Phillips S J,Anderson R P,Schapire R E.Maximum entropy modeling of species geographic distributions[J].Ecological Modelling,2006,190(3):231-259.
[10] Mi C,Huettmann F,Guo Y,et al.Why choose Random Forest to predict rare species distribution with few samples in large undersampledareas?Three Asian crane species models provide supporting evidence[J].Peerj,2017,5(6).
[11] 郭彦龙,卫海燕,路春燕,等.气候变化下桃儿七潜在地理分布的预测[J].植物生态学报,2014,38(3):249-261.
[12] 赵泽芳,卫海燕,郭彦龙,等.黑果枸杞(Lycium ruthenicum)分布对气候变化的响应及其种植适宜性[J].中国沙漠,2017,37(5):902-909.
[13] 马松梅,张明理,陈曦.沙冬青属植物在亚洲中部荒漠区的潜在地理分布及驱动因子分析[J].中国沙漠,2012,32(5):1301-1307.
[14] Hidan M A E,Touloun O,Bouazza A,et al.Androctonusgenus species in arid regions:ecological niche models,geographicaldistributions,and envenomation risk[J].Veterinary World,2018,11(3):286-292.
[15] 姚俊强,杨青,陈亚宁,等.西北干旱区气候变化及其对生态环境影响[J].生态学杂志,2013,32(5):1283-1291.
[16] 赵哈林,赵学勇,张铜会,等.我国西北干旱区的荒漠化过程及其空间分异规律[J].中国沙漠,2011,31(1):1-8.
[17] 姚俊强,杨青,刘志辉,等.中国西北干旱区降水时空分布特征[J].生态学报,2015,35(17):5846-5855.
[18] 师玮,潘伯荣,段士民,等.蒙古沙拐枣(Calligonum mongolicum)与其相关种的果实形态差异性分析[J].中国沙漠,2011,31(1):121-128.
[19] 许仲林,彭焕华,彭守璋.物种分布模型的发展及评价方法[J].生态学报,2015,35(2):557-567.
[20] Hijmans R J,Cameron S E,Parra J L,et al.WORLDCLIM:very high resolution interpolated climate surfaces for global land areas[J].International Journal of Climatology,2005,25(15):1965-1978.
[21] IPCC.Climate Change 2013:The Physical Science Basis[M].Cambridge,UK:Cambridge University Press,2013.
[22] Moss R H,Edmonds J A,Hibbard K A,et al.The next generation of scenarios for climate change research and assessment[J].Nature,2010,463(7282):747-756.
[23] Guo Y,Li X,Zhao Z,et al.Prediction of the potential geographic distribution of the ectomycorrhizal mushroom Tricholomamatsutake under multiple climate change scenarios[J].Scientific Reports,2017,7:46221.
[24] Yang X Q,Kushwaha S P S,Saran S,et al.MaxEnt modeling for predicting the potential distribution of medicinal plant,Justiciaadhatoda,L.in Lesser Himalayan foothills[J].Ecological Engineering,2013,51(1):83-87.
[25] 乔慧捷,胡军华,黄继红.生态位模型的理论基础、发展方向与挑战[J].中国科学:生命科学,2013,43(11):915-927.
[26] Phillipsa S J,Anderson R P,Schapire R E.Maximumentropy modeling of species geographic distributions[J].Ecological Modeling,2013,190(3/4):231-259.
[27] Phillips S J,Dudík M.Modeling of species distributions with MaxEnt:new extensions and a comprehensive evaluation[J].Ecography,2008,31(2):161-175.
[28] 王运生,谢丙炎,万方浩,等.ROC曲线分析在评价入侵物种分布模型中的应用[J].生物多样性,2007,15(4):365-372.
[29] Pliscoff P,Luebert F,Hilger H H,et al.Effects of alternative sets of climatic predictors on species distribution models and associated estimates of extinction risk:a test with plants in an arid environment[J].Ecological Modelling,2014,288:166-177.
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