“一带一路”国家能源利用效率评价及其与经济增长脱钩分析
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摘要
提高能源利用效率可以降低能耗,促进各国经济持续增长。能源利用效率的提高与经济高质增长的协调发展,是增进各国人民福祉的本质要求。本文运用方向性距离函数(DDF)和Global Malmquist-Luenberger(GML)指数测算出1995—2015年"一带一路"沿线50个国家的能源利用效率,构建脱钩模型,探讨经济增长与能源消耗及能源利用效率的"脱钩"关系,研究发现:①1995—2015年"一带一路"国家能源利用效率整体均值为0.682,先下降后上升,在2008年达到峰值0.833,然后处于波动下降中;②"一带一路"国家能源利用效率在1995—2015年累计增长17.5%,追赶效率和技术进步贡献率分别为7.2%和10.0%,共同促进能源利用效率提升,除独联体出现负增长外,其他地区能源利用效率均有不同程度的提升;③"一带一路"国家经济增长和能源消耗、能源利用效率的脱钩关系从偏离弱脱钩变为实现弱脱钩,再发展为偏离弱脱钩,有待于继续减少能耗,提升能源利用效率,促进经济增长。因此,今后各国应从追赶效率和技术进步入手,提升能源利用效率,早日实现经济增长与能源消耗的强脱钩、与能源利用效率的弱脱钩或者扩张性负脱钩关系。
Increasing energy efficiency can reduce energy consumption and promote sustained economic growth in all countries. The coordinated development of energy efficiency and high quality economic growth is an essential requirement for enhancing the well-being of people in all countries. This study used Directional Distance Function(DDF) and Global Malmquist-Luenberger(GML) index to calculate the energy efficiency of 50 countries along the Belt and Road initiative region from 1995 to 2015, and constructed a model to explore the"decoupling"relationship between economic growth and energy consumption and energy efficiency. The study found that:(1)From 1995 to 2015, the overall energy efficiency of the countries in the Belt and Road region averaged 0.682, first falling then rising, reaching a peak of 0.833 in 2008, and then fluctuating with a falling trend;(2) In 1995-2015, energy efficiency of these countries increased by 17.5%. The catch-up efficiency and technological progress contribution rates were 7.2% and 10.0%,respectively, which jointly promoted the improvement of energy efficiency. Except for the negative growth of the Commonwealth of Independent States(CIS), Energy efficiency in other regions has increased to varying degrees;(3) Decoupling between economic growth and energy consumption and energy efficiency of the Belt and Road countries is determined by continuing to reduce energy consumption, improve energy efficiency, and promote economic growth, and it has gone through a process of drifting away from weak decoupling, weak decoupling, and again drifting away from weak decoupling. Therefore in the future, countries should start with focusing on catching-up efficiency and technological progress, improve energy efficiency, and achieve a strong decoupling between economic growth and energy consumption, a weak decoupling between economic growth and energy efficiency, or a negative decoupling relationship.
Increasing energy efficiency can reduce energy consumption and promote sustained economic growth in all countries. The coordinated development of energy efficiency and high quality economic growth is an essential requirement for enhancing the well-being of people in all countries. This study used Directional Distance Function(DDF) and Global Malmquist-Luenberger(GML) index to calculate the energy efficiency of 50 countries along the Belt and Road initiative region from 1995 to 2015, and constructed a model to explore the"decoupling"relationship between economic growth and energy consumption and energy efficiency. The study found that:(1)From 1995 to 2015, the overall energy efficiency of the countries in the Belt and Road region averaged 0.682, first falling then rising, reaching a peak of 0.833 in 2008, and then fluctuating with a falling trend;(2) In 1995-2015, energy efficiency of these countries increased by 17.5%. The catch-up efficiency and technological progress contribution rates were 7.2% and 10.0%,respectively, which jointly promoted the improvement of energy efficiency. Except for the negative growth of the Commonwealth of Independent States(CIS), Energy efficiency in other regions has increased to varying degrees;(3) Decoupling between economic growth and energy consumption and energy efficiency of the Belt and Road countries is determined by continuing to reduce energy consumption, improve energy efficiency, and promote economic growth, and it has gone through a process of drifting away from weak decoupling, weak decoupling, and again drifting away from weak decoupling. Therefore in the future, countries should start with focusing on catching-up efficiency and technological progress, improve energy efficiency, and achieve a strong decoupling between economic growth and energy consumption, a weak decoupling between economic growth and energy efficiency, or a negative decoupling relationship.
引文
[1]夏义善.中国国际能源发展战略研究[M].北京:世界知识出版社, 2009.[Xia Y S. China’s International Energy Development Strategy[M]. Beijing:World Knowledge Press, 2009.]
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[4]林伯强,杜克锐.要素市场扭曲对能源效率的影响[J].经济研究, 2013,(9):125-136.[Lin B Q, Du K R. The energy effect of factor market distortion in China[J]. Economic Research Journal,2013,(9):125-136.]
[5]王俊杰,史丹,张成.能源价格对能源效率的影响:基于全球数据的实证分析[J].经济管理, 2014, 36(12):13-23.[Wang J J,Shi D, Zhang C. The impact of energy prices on energy efficiency:An empirical study based on global data[J]. Economic Management, 2014, 36(12):13-23.]
[6]何凌云,程怡,金里程,等.国内外能源价格对我国能源消耗的综合调节作用比较研究[J].自然资源学报, 2016, 31(1):1-16.[He L Y, Cheng Y, Jin L C, et al. Comparison of the regulatory effects of domestic and foreign energy prices on energy consumption of China[J]. Journal of Natural Resources, 2016, 31(1):1-16.]
[7]江洪,陈亮.能源价格对能源效率倒逼机制的空间异质性[J].价格理论与实践, 2017,(2):96-99.[Jiang H, Chen L. The spatial heterogeneity of energy price to energy efficiency forcing mechanism[J]. Price Theory and Practice, 2017,(2):96-99.]
[8]林伯强,刘泓汛.对外贸易是否有利于提高能源环境效率[J].经济研究, 2015,(9):127-141.[Lin B Q, Liu H X. Whether Do energy and environment efficiency benefit from foreign trade:The case of China’s industrial sectors[J]. Economic Research Journal,2015,(9):127-141.]
[9]韩玉军,王丽. OFDI逆向技术溢出对中国能源利用效率的影响[J].经济问题, 2016,(3):95-101.[Han Y J, Wang L. The effect of OFDI reverse technology spillover on China energy efficiency[J].Economic Problem, 2016,(3):95-101.]
[10]吕明元,陈维宣.中国产业结构升级对能源效率的影响:基于1978-2013年数据[J].资源科学, 2016, 38(7):1350-1362.[Lv M Y, Chen W X. The study on the impact of industrial structure upgrading on energy efficiency in China:Based on the data from1978 to 2013[J]. Resources Science, 2016, 38(7):1350-1362.]
[11]张志辉.中国区域能源效率演变及其影响因素[J].数量经济技术经济研究, 2015,(8):73-88.[Zhang Z H. China’s regional energy efficiency evolution and its affecting factors[J]. Quantitative&Technical Economics, 2015,(8):73-88.]
[12]冯烽.内生视角下能源价格、技术进步对能源效率的变动效应研究:基于PVAR模型[J].管理评论, 2015, 27(4):38-47.[Feng F. Research on dynamics effects of energy efficiency from energy price, technological progress in endogenous perspective based on panel VAR model[J]. Management Review, 2015, 27(4):38-47.]
[13]陈夕红,李长青,张国荣,等.经济增长质量与能源效率是一致的吗[J].自然资源学报, 2013,(11):1858-1868.[Chen X H, Li C Q, Zhang G R, et al. Is the quality of economic growth consistent with energy efficiency?[J] Journal of Natural Resources, 2013,(11):1858-1868.]
[14]叶祥松,刘敬,王江波.经济增长质量与能源效率研究:以珠三角地区为例[J].江西财经大学学报, 2017,(5):3-13.[Ye X S,Liu J, Wang J B. Study on the quality and energy efficiency of economic growth:Take the pearl river delta region as an example[J].Journal of Jiangxi University of Finance and Economics, 2017,(5):3-13.]
[15]车亮亮,韩雪,赵良仕,等.中国煤炭利用效率评价及与经济增长脱钩分析[J].中国人口·资源与环境, 2015, 25(3):104-110.[Che L L, Han X, Zhao L S, et al. Coal use efficiency evaluation and decoupling analysis between coal use efficiency and economic growth in China[J]. China Population, Resources and Environment, 2015, 25(3):104-110.]
[16]胡根华.“金砖国家”全要素能源效率的比较研究:基于DEATobit模型[J].资源科学, 2012, 34(3):533-540.[Hu G H. Comparative research of total-factor energy efficiency in BRICS:Based on DEA and Tobit models[J]. Resources Science, 2012, 34(3):533-540.]
[17]岳立,杨帆.“丝绸之路经济带”框架下中国与中亚五国能源效率评价:基于CCR-BCC和Malmquist指数分析方法的DEA-Tobit模型[J].统计与信息论坛, 2016, 31(6):37-43.[Yue L, Yang F. Analysis of total factor energy efficiency of China and five countries in the central Asia on the silk road economic belt:DEA-Tobit model based on CCR-BCC&Malmquist index method[J]. Statistics and Information Forum, 2016, 31(6):37-43.]
[18]刘明辉,袁培.中哈全要素能源效率比较研究[J].山东工商学院学报, 2015, 29(6):43-48.[Liu M H, Yuan P. Comparative study of total energy efficiency between China and Kazakhstan[J]. Journal of Shandong Technology and Business University, 2015, 29(6):43-48.]
[19]汪晓文,马晓锦,倪坤鹏.“丝绸之路经济带”沿线国家贸易与能源效率关系研究:基于DEA模型与贸易引力模型的实证研究[J].兰州大学学报(社会科学版), 2015,(4):7-15.[Wang X W,Ma X J, Ni K P. A study on the relationship between the trade and energy efficiency among the countries along the Silk Road Economic Belt:Based on the DEA and trade gravitation models[J].Journal of Lanzhou University(Social Science Edition), 2015,(4):7-15.]
[20] Lin J.“One Belt and One Road”and free trade zones:China’s new opening-up initiatives[J]. Frontiers of Economics in China,2015, 10(4):585-590.
[21] Huang Y P. Understanding China’s Belt&Road initiative:Motivation, framework and assessment[J]. China Economic Review,2016, 40:314-321.
[22] Oh D H. A Global Malmquist-Luenberger productivity index[J].Journal of Productivity Analysis, 2010, 34(3):183-197.
[23]宋伟,陈百明,陈曦炜.常熟市耕地占用与经济增长的脱钩评价[J].自然资源学报, 2009, 24(9):1532-1540.[Song W, Chen B M,Chen X W. Decoupling evaluation between cultivated land occupation and economic growth in Changshu City[J]. Journal of Natural Resources, 2009, 24(9):1532-1540.]
[24]王泽宁,卢雪凤,韩增林,等.中国海洋经济增长与资源消耗的脱钩分析及回弹效应研究[J].资源科学, 2017, 39(9):1658-1669.[Wang Z N, Lu X F, Han Z L, et al. Decoupling analysis and rebound effect between China’s marine economic growth and resource consumption[J]. Resources Science, 2017, 39(9):1658-1669.]
[25]彭佳雯,黄贤金,钟太洋,等.中国经济增长与能源碳排放的脱钩研究[J].资源科学, 2011, 33(4):626-633.[Peng J W, Huang X J, Zhong T Y, et al. Decoupling analysis of economic growth and energy carbon emissions in China[J]. Resources Science, 2011, 33(4):626-633.]
[26] Hall R E, Jones C I. Why do some countries produce so much more output per worker than others?[J]. NBER Working Papers,1999, 114(1):83-116.
[27]魏楚,沈满洪.规模效率与配置效率:一个对中国能源低效的解释[J].世界经济, 2009,(4):84-96.[Wei C, Shen M H. Scale efficiency and configuration efficiency:One explanation for China’s energy inefficiency[J]. The Journal of World Economy, 2009,(4):84-96.]
[2] BP. 2018年BP世界能源统计年鉴[EB/OL].(2018-06)[2019-01-05]. https://www.bp.com/content/dam/bp-country/zh_cn/Publications/2018SRbook.pdf.[BP. BP Statistical Review of World Energy[EB/OL].(2018-06)[2019-01-05]. https://www.bp.com/content/dam/bp-country/zh_cn/Publications/2018SRbook.pdf.]
[3]张祥建,彭娜.“一带一路”战略的合作重点和推进策略[J].华南师范大学学报(社会科学版), 2017,(5):22-27.[Zhang X J, Peng N. Cooperation focus and promotion strategy of“The Belt And Road”strategy[J]. Journal of South China Normal University(Social Science Edition), 2017,(5):22-27.]
[4]林伯强,杜克锐.要素市场扭曲对能源效率的影响[J].经济研究, 2013,(9):125-136.[Lin B Q, Du K R. The energy effect of factor market distortion in China[J]. Economic Research Journal,2013,(9):125-136.]
[5]王俊杰,史丹,张成.能源价格对能源效率的影响:基于全球数据的实证分析[J].经济管理, 2014, 36(12):13-23.[Wang J J,Shi D, Zhang C. The impact of energy prices on energy efficiency:An empirical study based on global data[J]. Economic Management, 2014, 36(12):13-23.]
[6]何凌云,程怡,金里程,等.国内外能源价格对我国能源消耗的综合调节作用比较研究[J].自然资源学报, 2016, 31(1):1-16.[He L Y, Cheng Y, Jin L C, et al. Comparison of the regulatory effects of domestic and foreign energy prices on energy consumption of China[J]. Journal of Natural Resources, 2016, 31(1):1-16.]
[7]江洪,陈亮.能源价格对能源效率倒逼机制的空间异质性[J].价格理论与实践, 2017,(2):96-99.[Jiang H, Chen L. The spatial heterogeneity of energy price to energy efficiency forcing mechanism[J]. Price Theory and Practice, 2017,(2):96-99.]
[8]林伯强,刘泓汛.对外贸易是否有利于提高能源环境效率[J].经济研究, 2015,(9):127-141.[Lin B Q, Liu H X. Whether Do energy and environment efficiency benefit from foreign trade:The case of China’s industrial sectors[J]. Economic Research Journal,2015,(9):127-141.]
[9]韩玉军,王丽. OFDI逆向技术溢出对中国能源利用效率的影响[J].经济问题, 2016,(3):95-101.[Han Y J, Wang L. The effect of OFDI reverse technology spillover on China energy efficiency[J].Economic Problem, 2016,(3):95-101.]
[10]吕明元,陈维宣.中国产业结构升级对能源效率的影响:基于1978-2013年数据[J].资源科学, 2016, 38(7):1350-1362.[Lv M Y, Chen W X. The study on the impact of industrial structure upgrading on energy efficiency in China:Based on the data from1978 to 2013[J]. Resources Science, 2016, 38(7):1350-1362.]
[11]张志辉.中国区域能源效率演变及其影响因素[J].数量经济技术经济研究, 2015,(8):73-88.[Zhang Z H. China’s regional energy efficiency evolution and its affecting factors[J]. Quantitative&Technical Economics, 2015,(8):73-88.]
[12]冯烽.内生视角下能源价格、技术进步对能源效率的变动效应研究:基于PVAR模型[J].管理评论, 2015, 27(4):38-47.[Feng F. Research on dynamics effects of energy efficiency from energy price, technological progress in endogenous perspective based on panel VAR model[J]. Management Review, 2015, 27(4):38-47.]
[13]陈夕红,李长青,张国荣,等.经济增长质量与能源效率是一致的吗[J].自然资源学报, 2013,(11):1858-1868.[Chen X H, Li C Q, Zhang G R, et al. Is the quality of economic growth consistent with energy efficiency?[J] Journal of Natural Resources, 2013,(11):1858-1868.]
[14]叶祥松,刘敬,王江波.经济增长质量与能源效率研究:以珠三角地区为例[J].江西财经大学学报, 2017,(5):3-13.[Ye X S,Liu J, Wang J B. Study on the quality and energy efficiency of economic growth:Take the pearl river delta region as an example[J].Journal of Jiangxi University of Finance and Economics, 2017,(5):3-13.]
[15]车亮亮,韩雪,赵良仕,等.中国煤炭利用效率评价及与经济增长脱钩分析[J].中国人口·资源与环境, 2015, 25(3):104-110.[Che L L, Han X, Zhao L S, et al. Coal use efficiency evaluation and decoupling analysis between coal use efficiency and economic growth in China[J]. China Population, Resources and Environment, 2015, 25(3):104-110.]
[16]胡根华.“金砖国家”全要素能源效率的比较研究:基于DEATobit模型[J].资源科学, 2012, 34(3):533-540.[Hu G H. Comparative research of total-factor energy efficiency in BRICS:Based on DEA and Tobit models[J]. Resources Science, 2012, 34(3):533-540.]
[17]岳立,杨帆.“丝绸之路经济带”框架下中国与中亚五国能源效率评价:基于CCR-BCC和Malmquist指数分析方法的DEA-Tobit模型[J].统计与信息论坛, 2016, 31(6):37-43.[Yue L, Yang F. Analysis of total factor energy efficiency of China and five countries in the central Asia on the silk road economic belt:DEA-Tobit model based on CCR-BCC&Malmquist index method[J]. Statistics and Information Forum, 2016, 31(6):37-43.]
[18]刘明辉,袁培.中哈全要素能源效率比较研究[J].山东工商学院学报, 2015, 29(6):43-48.[Liu M H, Yuan P. Comparative study of total energy efficiency between China and Kazakhstan[J]. Journal of Shandong Technology and Business University, 2015, 29(6):43-48.]
[19]汪晓文,马晓锦,倪坤鹏.“丝绸之路经济带”沿线国家贸易与能源效率关系研究:基于DEA模型与贸易引力模型的实证研究[J].兰州大学学报(社会科学版), 2015,(4):7-15.[Wang X W,Ma X J, Ni K P. A study on the relationship between the trade and energy efficiency among the countries along the Silk Road Economic Belt:Based on the DEA and trade gravitation models[J].Journal of Lanzhou University(Social Science Edition), 2015,(4):7-15.]
[20] Lin J.“One Belt and One Road”and free trade zones:China’s new opening-up initiatives[J]. Frontiers of Economics in China,2015, 10(4):585-590.
[21] Huang Y P. Understanding China’s Belt&Road initiative:Motivation, framework and assessment[J]. China Economic Review,2016, 40:314-321.
[22] Oh D H. A Global Malmquist-Luenberger productivity index[J].Journal of Productivity Analysis, 2010, 34(3):183-197.
[23]宋伟,陈百明,陈曦炜.常熟市耕地占用与经济增长的脱钩评价[J].自然资源学报, 2009, 24(9):1532-1540.[Song W, Chen B M,Chen X W. Decoupling evaluation between cultivated land occupation and economic growth in Changshu City[J]. Journal of Natural Resources, 2009, 24(9):1532-1540.]
[24]王泽宁,卢雪凤,韩增林,等.中国海洋经济增长与资源消耗的脱钩分析及回弹效应研究[J].资源科学, 2017, 39(9):1658-1669.[Wang Z N, Lu X F, Han Z L, et al. Decoupling analysis and rebound effect between China’s marine economic growth and resource consumption[J]. Resources Science, 2017, 39(9):1658-1669.]
[25]彭佳雯,黄贤金,钟太洋,等.中国经济增长与能源碳排放的脱钩研究[J].资源科学, 2011, 33(4):626-633.[Peng J W, Huang X J, Zhong T Y, et al. Decoupling analysis of economic growth and energy carbon emissions in China[J]. Resources Science, 2011, 33(4):626-633.]
[26] Hall R E, Jones C I. Why do some countries produce so much more output per worker than others?[J]. NBER Working Papers,1999, 114(1):83-116.
[27]魏楚,沈满洪.规模效率与配置效率:一个对中国能源低效的解释[J].世界经济, 2009,(4):84-96.[Wei C, Shen M H. Scale efficiency and configuration efficiency:One explanation for China’s energy inefficiency[J]. The Journal of World Economy, 2009,(4):84-96.]