海口湾海洋水动力自然灾害评估分析
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摘要
开展海洋水动力自然灾害评价分析是涉海工程海洋灾害风险评估的重要组成部分,其重在水动力风险因素的识别与风险强度的预估,是有效提高灾害防御能力、控制风险和减少灾害损失的关键技术方法之一。海口湾水域位于海南岛北岸,琼州海峡内、濒临南海,由于其特殊地理位置,对海口湾水域影响最为显著的海洋动力灾害主要包括:风暴潮、海浪和海啸。本文针对上述问题,基于数值模拟方法以及实测数据统计和经验分析等方法,研究确定了该海域所面临的上述各风险因素的成因,并确定了其对应强度大小和危害破坏情况,给出了极端条件下的数值结果,为相关工程的海域使用论证提供参考依据。其中,风暴潮增水主要基于实测台风资料通过随机统计与水动力模型相结合的方法,推求出重现期为50、100以及500 a的极端高水位值。极端大浪主要基于30 a的台风过程与疾风资料,结合后报风场数据,采用SWAN模拟海域波浪场,分别计算给出重现期100、50 a波浪要素,并验证了海域内人工岛护面稳定性情况。海啸波主要依托Nguyen et al(2014)在USGS震源参数基础上导出的震源参数,采用浅水波模型分别对7.0和8.0级地震形成的海啸进行数值模拟,估算对海口湾水域影响情况,还考虑了整个断裂带发生破裂形成的特大地震(9.3级)海啸时极端情况。
The evaluation analysis of ocean hydrodynamic risk assessment is an important part of risk assessment for ocean disasters of marine engineering, it emphasis on hydrodynamic factors of risk identification and risk intensity forecasts, and it is one of the key technology methods of effective improve the ability of disaster prevention, control risk and reducing disaster loss. Haikou Bay is located in the north of Hainan Island, within the Qiongzhou Strait, and nearby the South China Sea. Due to its special geographical position, the most significant influence of the ocean dynamical disasters in Haikou Bay mainly includes: storm surge, waves, and tsunami. In this paper, according to the above problem, based on the numerical simulation method and the survey data and experience analysis, our research identified the cause of the risk factors, and determined the damage to its corresponding to the intensity and damage, the numerical results of extreme conditions are given, as a reference of related engineering area using arguments. Among them, the storm surge elevation main according to the method of combining statistics and random hydrodynamic model which based on the measured typhoon data, to estimate return period of 50 years, 100 and 100 years of extreme high water level value. Extreme wave is mainly based on 30 years of typhoon process with high wind data, combined with field data on the wind, and used the SWAN simulation, sea wave field are calculated respectively gives the return period of 100 years, 50 years wave parameter, and verify the stability of armor block for the artificial island. Tsunami waves mainly relying on the seismic source parameters of Nguyen et al(2014) which based on the export of the USGS's source, and used the shallow water wave model, respectively of M_w=7.0 and 8.0 magnitude earthquake formation of the tsunami numerical simulation and estimation of Haikou Bay, it also consider the formation of the fault fracture earthquake(M_w=9.3) tsunami extremes.
The evaluation analysis of ocean hydrodynamic risk assessment is an important part of risk assessment for ocean disasters of marine engineering, it emphasis on hydrodynamic factors of risk identification and risk intensity forecasts, and it is one of the key technology methods of effective improve the ability of disaster prevention, control risk and reducing disaster loss. Haikou Bay is located in the north of Hainan Island, within the Qiongzhou Strait, and nearby the South China Sea. Due to its special geographical position, the most significant influence of the ocean dynamical disasters in Haikou Bay mainly includes: storm surge, waves, and tsunami. In this paper, according to the above problem, based on the numerical simulation method and the survey data and experience analysis, our research identified the cause of the risk factors, and determined the damage to its corresponding to the intensity and damage, the numerical results of extreme conditions are given, as a reference of related engineering area using arguments. Among them, the storm surge elevation main according to the method of combining statistics and random hydrodynamic model which based on the measured typhoon data, to estimate return period of 50 years, 100 and 100 years of extreme high water level value. Extreme wave is mainly based on 30 years of typhoon process with high wind data, combined with field data on the wind, and used the SWAN simulation, sea wave field are calculated respectively gives the return period of 100 years, 50 years wave parameter, and verify the stability of armor block for the artificial island. Tsunami waves mainly relying on the seismic source parameters of Nguyen et al(2014) which based on the export of the USGS's source, and used the shallow water wave model, respectively of M_w=7.0 and 8.0 magnitude earthquake formation of the tsunami numerical simulation and estimation of Haikou Bay, it also consider the formation of the fault fracture earthquake(M_w=9.3) tsunami extremes.
引文
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[12] Kirby S,Geist E.Great earthquake tsunami sources:Empiricism and beyond[C].//USGS Tsunami Sources Workshop,Menlo Park,California,USA:[s.n.],2006.
[13] 刘桦,赵曦,王本龙,等.海啸数值模拟与南海海啸预警方法[J].力学季刊,2015,36(3):351-369.Liu H,Zhao X,Wang B L,et al.Numerical simulation of tsunami warning methods for South China Sea region[J].Chinese Quarterly of Mechanics,2015,36(3):351-369.
[14] Lau A Y A,Switier A,Dominey-Howes D,et al.Written records of historical tsunamis in the northeastern South China Sea-challenges associated with developing a newintegrated database[J].Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences,2010,10:1793-1806.
[15] Nguyen P H,Que C B,Vu P H,et al.Scenario-based tsunami hazard assessment for the coast of Vietnam from the Manila Trench source[J].Physics of the Earth and Planetary Interiors,2014,236:95-108.
[2] 梁海燕,邹欣庆.海口湾沿岸风暴潮漫滩风险计算[J].海洋通报,2004(6):20-26.Liang H Y,Zhou X Q.Calculation of overland risk of storm surge off the Haikou Bay[J].Marine Science Bulletin,2004(6):20-26.
[3] 李文欢,石海莹.海南省风暴潮灾害预报及防范系统研究[M].北京:海洋出版社,2013.Li W H,Shi H Y.Research on Prediction and Protection System of Storm Surge Disaster for Hainan Province[M].Beijing:China Ocean Press,2013.
[4] 王红心,陆惠祥,余晓军,等.海南岛沿岸风暴潮特征分析[J].海洋预报,1998,15(2):34-42.Wang H X,Lu H X,Yu X J,et al.Characteristic analysis of Hainan Island storm surge[J].Marine Forecasts,1998,15(2):34-42.
[5] 曲双石,王会娟.Monte Carlo方法及其应用[J].统计教育,2009,112(1):45-55.Qu S Q,Wang H J.Monte Carlo method and its applications[J].Statistical Thinktank,2009,112(1):45-55.
[6] 谢鎏晔.台风风场与波浪场的数值模拟研究[D].上海:上海交通大学,2012.Xie X H.Numerical Simulation of Typhoon Wind Feild and Waves[D].Shanghai:Shanghai Jiao Tong Univerisity,2012.
[7] Gica E,Teng M H,Luettich J R A,et al.Numerical modeling of storm surge generated by Hurricane Iniki in Hawaii[C].//Proceedings of the International Symposium on Ocean Wave Measurement and Analysis,2001:1555-1564.
[8] Demirbilek Z,L Lin,G P Bass.Prediction of storm-induced high water levels in Chesapeake Bay[C].//Solutions to Coastal Disasters 2005-Proceedings of the Conference,2005:187-201.
[9] 王喜年.海洋灾害及预报[C].北京:海洋出版社,1993:43-85.Wang X N.Ocean Disasters and Forecast[C].Beijing:China Ocean Press,1993:43-85.
[10] 刘桦,赵曦,王本龙.海啸预警与海岸带减灾研究进展[C].//第二十一届全国水动力学研讨会暨第八届全国水动力学学术会议暨两岸船舶与海洋工程水动力学研讨会文集.北京:海洋出版社,2008:41-47.Liu H,Zhao X,Wang B L.Advances in tsunami warning system and hazard mitigation in coastal zones[C].//Corpus on the 21st National Conference of Water Dynamics and the 8th National Conference on Hydrodynamics and Conference of Ship and Ocean Engineering Hydrodynamics of Two Sides,Beijing:Ocean Press,2008:41-47.
[11] Liu P L F,Wang X,Salisbury A J.Tsunami hazard and early warning system in South China Sea[J].Journal of Asian Earth Sciences,2009,36(1):2-12.
[12] Kirby S,Geist E.Great earthquake tsunami sources:Empiricism and beyond[C].//USGS Tsunami Sources Workshop,Menlo Park,California,USA:[s.n.],2006.
[13] 刘桦,赵曦,王本龙,等.海啸数值模拟与南海海啸预警方法[J].力学季刊,2015,36(3):351-369.Liu H,Zhao X,Wang B L,et al.Numerical simulation of tsunami warning methods for South China Sea region[J].Chinese Quarterly of Mechanics,2015,36(3):351-369.
[14] Lau A Y A,Switier A,Dominey-Howes D,et al.Written records of historical tsunamis in the northeastern South China Sea-challenges associated with developing a newintegrated database[J].Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences,2010,10:1793-1806.
[15] Nguyen P H,Que C B,Vu P H,et al.Scenario-based tsunami hazard assessment for the coast of Vietnam from the Manila Trench source[J].Physics of the Earth and Planetary Interiors,2014,236:95-108.