海流兔河流域径流变化的周期和趋势分析
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摘要
以荒沙草滩区典型河流海流兔河为例,利用连续小波变换、多时相趋势分析,并联合利用离散小波变换和Mann-Kndall秩次检验法对1957—2011年的年均径流分别进行周期、趋势以及趋势结构分析。结果表明:1海流兔河年均径流量在时间序列上主要存在着12~21 a周期变化,第一主周期为17 a,且径流量偏少阶段将从2010年持续至2016年左右,之后将进入偏多阶段。2海流兔河流域径流量呈现显著下降趋势,与整个黄河中游总体径流量减少趋势相一致。3联合利用离散小波变换和Mann-Kendall秩次检验法可以很好地解释趋势的基本结构,8~16 a的周期性事件对海流兔河径流的趋势影响最大。水文时间序列周期部分的周期性越强,其对序列趋势的影响越大。4序列趋势的显著性和方向取决于其长度以及在整个序列中的位置,主要是因为序列中长周期丰枯交替的存在,多时相趋势分析一定程度上解决了由于序列长周期丰枯交替的存在造成的序列趋势判断的不确定性问题。
In this study,the Hailiutu River Basin was chosen as a typical case of a semi-arid sand and grass land area,and the methods of continuous wavelet transform, multi-temporal trend analysis, and discrete wavelet transform and Mann-Kendall test were jointly used to investigate the periods,trends,and basic structure of the trends of the annual mean streamflow in the basin during the period from 1957 to 2011. The results are as follows:( 1) There is a main period change in the process of the annual mean streamflow,with a period varying from 12 to21 years. The first main period is 17 years and the dry period will last from 2010 to 2016 or so,and then the Hailiutu River Basin will enter a wet period.( 2) The streamflow of the Hailiutu River Basin exhibits a significantly downward trend,which is consistent with the overall trend of streamflow in the middle reaches of the Yellow River.( 3) The results of joint utilization of the discrete wavelet transform and Mann-Kendall test,which can explain the basic structure of the trends,suggest that 8 to 16 years of periodic events account for the observed trend of the annual mean streamflow in the Hailiutu River Basin. The stronger the periods presented in the hydrologic time series are,the greater the influence that the period components exert on the trends observed in the series will be.( 4) The trend magnitude and direction depend on the length of the time series and the position of the sub-series within the whole series,because of the existence of the long-term alternating dry and wet periods that probably lead the trend test toward misleading results,and the multi-temporal trend test provides a good way to solve that problem.
In this study,the Hailiutu River Basin was chosen as a typical case of a semi-arid sand and grass land area,and the methods of continuous wavelet transform, multi-temporal trend analysis, and discrete wavelet transform and Mann-Kendall test were jointly used to investigate the periods,trends,and basic structure of the trends of the annual mean streamflow in the basin during the period from 1957 to 2011. The results are as follows:( 1) There is a main period change in the process of the annual mean streamflow,with a period varying from 12 to21 years. The first main period is 17 years and the dry period will last from 2010 to 2016 or so,and then the Hailiutu River Basin will enter a wet period.( 2) The streamflow of the Hailiutu River Basin exhibits a significantly downward trend,which is consistent with the overall trend of streamflow in the middle reaches of the Yellow River.( 3) The results of joint utilization of the discrete wavelet transform and Mann-Kendall test,which can explain the basic structure of the trends,suggest that 8 to 16 years of periodic events account for the observed trend of the annual mean streamflow in the Hailiutu River Basin. The stronger the periods presented in the hydrologic time series are,the greater the influence that the period components exert on the trends observed in the series will be.( 4) The trend magnitude and direction depend on the length of the time series and the position of the sub-series within the whole series,because of the existence of the long-term alternating dry and wet periods that probably lead the trend test toward misleading results,and the multi-temporal trend test provides a good way to solve that problem.
引文
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[13]王晓勇,尹立河,戴泽兵,等.鄂尔多斯盆地海流兔河流域地表蒸散发研究[J].西北地质,2014,47(1):244-248.(WANG Xiaoyong,YIN Lihe,DAI Zebing,et al.A study of evaporation in Hailiutu River Basin,Ordo[J].Northwestern Geology,2014,47(1):244-248.(in Chinese))
[14]董佳秋,常亮.海流兔河径流特性变化及影响分析[J].水资源与水工程学报,2014,25(1):144-147.(DONG Jiaqiu,CHANG Liang.Analysis of runoff characteristic change and influence for Hailiutu River[J].Journal of Water Resources&Water Engineering,2014,25(1):144-147.(in Chinese))
[15]SU H,LIU Q,LI J.Alleviating border effects in wavelet transforms for nonlinear time-varying signal analysis[J].Advances in Electrical&Computer Engineering,2011,11(3):55-60.
[16]KHARITONENKO I,ZHANG X,TWELVES S.A wavelet transform with point-symmetric extension at tile boundaries[J].IEEE Trans Image Process,2002,11(12):1357-1364.
[17]刘萍,许卓首,王玲,等.气候变化对黄河流域水资源影响研究进展[J].气象与环境科学,2009,32(增刊1):275-278.(LIU Ping,XU Zhuoshou,WANG Ling,et al.Research on climate impact on water resource of Yellow River Basin[J].Meteorological and Environment Sciences,2009,32(sup1):275-278.(in Chinese))
[18]CONG Z,YANG D,GAO B,et al.Hydrological trend analysis in the Yellow River Basin using a distributed hydrological model.[J].Water Resources Research,2009,45(7):335-345.
[2]HANNAFORD J,BUYS G,STAHL K,et al.The influence of decadal-scale variability on trends in long European streamflow records[J].Hydrology&Earth System Sciences Discussions,2013,17(7):2717-2733.
[3]郝振纯,侯艳茹,张余庆,等.基于SWAT模型的皇甫川流域径流模拟研究[J].中国农村水利水电,2013(5):6-10.(HAO Zhenchun,HOU Yanru,ZHANG Yuqing,et al.Runoff simulation of Huangfuchuan Watershed based on SWAT mode[J].China Rural Water and Hydropower,2013(5):6-10.(in Chinese))
[4]DOUGLAS E M,VOGEL R M,KROLL C N.Trends in floods and low flows in the United States:impact of spatial correlation[J].Journal of Hydrology,2000,240(1):90-105.
[5]张建云,王国庆,贺瑞敏,等.黄河中游水文变化趋势及其对气候变化的响应[J].水科学进展,2009,20(2):153-158.(ZHANG Jianyun,WANG Guoqing,HE Ruimin,et al.Variation trends of runoffs in the middle Yellow River Basin and its response to climate change[J].Advances in Water Science,2009,20(2):153-158.(in Chinese))
[6]BIRSAN M V,MOLNAR P,BURLANDO P,et al.Streamflow trends in Switzerland[J].Journal of Hydrology,2005,314(1-4):312-329.
[7]张丹蓉,郭勉辰,夏冬梅,等.海流兔河径流量年内分配及变化趋势分析[J].水文,2013,33(3):85-90.(ZHANG Danrong,GUO Mianchen,XIA Dongmei,et al.Annual runoff distribution of Hailiutu River and its change trend[J].Journal of China Hydrology,2013,33(3):85-90.(in Chinese))
[8]于延胜,陈兴伟,徐宗学.基于线性分解时序方法的径流序列长度影响研究[J].水土保持通报,2009(4):106-109.(YU Yansheng,CHEN Xingwei,XU Zongxue.Effects of time series length on runoff characteristics by using linear decomposition method[J].Bulletin of Soil and Water Conservation,2009(4):106-109.(in Chinese))
[9]STOJKOVIC'M,ILIC'A,PROHASKA S,et al.Multitemporal analysis of mean annual and seasonal stream flow trends,including periodicity and multiple non-linear regression[J].Water Resources Management,2014,28(12):4319-4335.
[10]汤成友,缈韧.基于小波变换的水文时间序列分解及周期识别[J].人民长江,2006,37(12):32-34.(TANG Chengyou,MIAO Ren.Hydrologic time series resolution and cycle recognition based on wave-let transformation theory[J].Yangtze River,2006,37(12):32-34.(in Chinese))
[11]NALLEY D,ADAMOWSKI J,KHALIL B.Using discrete wavelet transforms to analyze trends in streamflow and precipitation in Quebec and Ontario(1954—2008)[J].Journal of Hydrology,2012,475(26):204-228.
[12]金晓媚,张强,杨春杰.海流兔河流域植被分布与地形地貌及地下水位关系研究[J].地学前缘,2013,20(3):228-233.(JIN Xiaomei,ZHANG Qiang,YANG Chunjie.Research on vegetation distribution and its relationship with topography and groundwater depth in the Hailiutu River Basin[J].Earth Science Frontiers,2013,20(3):228-233.(in Chinese))
[13]王晓勇,尹立河,戴泽兵,等.鄂尔多斯盆地海流兔河流域地表蒸散发研究[J].西北地质,2014,47(1):244-248.(WANG Xiaoyong,YIN Lihe,DAI Zebing,et al.A study of evaporation in Hailiutu River Basin,Ordo[J].Northwestern Geology,2014,47(1):244-248.(in Chinese))
[14]董佳秋,常亮.海流兔河径流特性变化及影响分析[J].水资源与水工程学报,2014,25(1):144-147.(DONG Jiaqiu,CHANG Liang.Analysis of runoff characteristic change and influence for Hailiutu River[J].Journal of Water Resources&Water Engineering,2014,25(1):144-147.(in Chinese))
[15]SU H,LIU Q,LI J.Alleviating border effects in wavelet transforms for nonlinear time-varying signal analysis[J].Advances in Electrical&Computer Engineering,2011,11(3):55-60.
[16]KHARITONENKO I,ZHANG X,TWELVES S.A wavelet transform with point-symmetric extension at tile boundaries[J].IEEE Trans Image Process,2002,11(12):1357-1364.
[17]刘萍,许卓首,王玲,等.气候变化对黄河流域水资源影响研究进展[J].气象与环境科学,2009,32(增刊1):275-278.(LIU Ping,XU Zhuoshou,WANG Ling,et al.Research on climate impact on water resource of Yellow River Basin[J].Meteorological and Environment Sciences,2009,32(sup1):275-278.(in Chinese))
[18]CONG Z,YANG D,GAO B,et al.Hydrological trend analysis in the Yellow River Basin using a distributed hydrological model.[J].Water Resources Research,2009,45(7):335-345.
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