新形势下中国天然气供需重心变化情况分析
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摘要
在天然气市场消费量快速增长、国内"三大四中"勘探开发格局逐步形成、陕西连续七年成为全国最大产气省份的背景下,我国天然气产量、消费重心变化明显。当前我国天然气供应呈现出"国产气为主,进口气为辅"的局面,天然气消费市场集中在环渤海、长三角和西南地区,2017年三地合计占当年全国天然气消费量的50%以上。运用重心理论,研究2006年至今我国天然气供需重心的分布位置和迁移路径。研究结果表明,我国天然气供需重心空间分布格局明显不同,供需重心都在向东南方向移动,但不存在交叉或重合,供需不均衡性在2014年后有加大趋势。建议在大力推进天然气产供储销体系的基础上,着力加快上游各方面建设,保障气源供应安全;加强基础设施建设,通过建设天然气支干线和联络线、LNG接收站解决供需两侧在空间上的矛盾,通过建设地下储气库等储气调峰设施解决时间上的矛盾;促进天然气回归其"商品属性",推进中西部地区天然气市场繁荣发展。
With the rapid growth of natural gas consumption in domestic market,the gradual formation of the exploration and development pattern of three large gas producing areas and four medium-sized gas producing areas in China,and the fact that Shaanxi Province has become the largest gas-producing province in the country for seven consecutive years from 2011 to 2017,China′s natural gas production and consumption gravity centers have changed significantly.At present,the supply and demand of natural gas in China presents a situation of relying mainly on domestic gas supplemented by imported gas,and the natural gas consumption market is concentrated in the Bohai Rim,Yangtze River Delta and Southwest China.In 2017,the total natural gas consumption of these three areas accounted for more than 50% of the national consumption.The theory of gravity center was introduced into the study on the distribution position and migration path of China ′s natural gas supply and demand gravity centers since 2006.The results show that the spatial distribution patterns of China′ s natural gas supply and demand gravity centers are obviously different,both the supply and demand gravity centers are moving towards the southeast,but there is no crossover or overlap,and the imbalance between supply and demand has presented a growing trend since 2014.On the basis of vigorously promoting the production,supply,storage and marketing system of natural gas,it is recommended to speed up the construction upstream to ensure the security of gas supply,strengthen the infrastructure construction to resolve the contradiction between natural gas supply and demand in space by building natural gas branch lines and tie lines and LNG receiving stations and to resolve the contradiction in time by building underground gas stor-ages,and promote the return of natural gas to its commodity attributes to promote the prosperity and develop-ment of the natural gas market in Midwest China.
With the rapid growth of natural gas consumption in domestic market,the gradual formation of the exploration and development pattern of three large gas producing areas and four medium-sized gas producing areas in China,and the fact that Shaanxi Province has become the largest gas-producing province in the country for seven consecutive years from 2011 to 2017,China′s natural gas production and consumption gravity centers have changed significantly.At present,the supply and demand of natural gas in China presents a situation of relying mainly on domestic gas supplemented by imported gas,and the natural gas consumption market is concentrated in the Bohai Rim,Yangtze River Delta and Southwest China.In 2017,the total natural gas consumption of these three areas accounted for more than 50% of the national consumption.The theory of gravity center was introduced into the study on the distribution position and migration path of China ′s natural gas supply and demand gravity centers since 2006.The results show that the spatial distribution patterns of China′ s natural gas supply and demand gravity centers are obviously different,both the supply and demand gravity centers are moving towards the southeast,but there is no crossover or overlap,and the imbalance between supply and demand has presented a growing trend since 2014.On the basis of vigorously promoting the production,supply,storage and marketing system of natural gas,it is recommended to speed up the construction upstream to ensure the security of gas supply,strengthen the infrastructure construction to resolve the contradiction between natural gas supply and demand in space by building natural gas branch lines and tie lines and LNG receiving stations and to resolve the contradiction in time by building underground gas stor-ages,and promote the return of natural gas to its commodity attributes to promote the prosperity and develop-ment of the natural gas market in Midwest China.
引文
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[3]国家能源局石油天然气司,国务院发展研究中心资源与环境政策研究所,国土资源部油气资源战略研究中心.中国天然气发展报告(2018)[R].北京:石油工业出版社,2018.
[4]娄钰,潘继平,王陆新,等.中国天然气资源勘探开发现状、问题及对策建议[J].国际石油经济,2018,26(6):21-27.
[5]郜婕,赵忠德,赵堂玉,等.2017年我国天然气产业链发展回顾及展望[J].石油规划设计,2018,29(4):1-5.
[6]邹莉娜,雷凯.中国天然气消费影响因素及对策[J].西安工业大学学报,2015,35(9):735-744.
[7]中华人民共和国国家发展和改革委员会.2017年天然气运行简况[EB/OL].(2018-01-31).http://www.ndrc.gov.cn/fzgggz/jjyx/mtzhgl/201801/t20180131_876398.html.
[8]BP.世界能源统计年鉴2018[EB/OL].https://www.bp.com/zh_cn/china/reports-and-publications/_bp_2018-_.html.
[9]董康银,孙仁金,李慧.中国天然气消费结构转变及对策[J].科技管理研究,2016,36(9):235-241.
[10]王震,赵林.新形势下中国天然气行业发展与改革思考[J].国际石油经济,2016,24(6):1-6.
[11]孟松.我国经济重心和社会重心迁移轨迹及比较分析[D].贵阳:贵州财经学院,2009.
[12]陈宇峰,朱荣军.中国区域经济重心迁移的半均衡化与影响因素[J].经济社会体制比较,2015(6):44-55.
[13]宁亚东,张永红.中国能源及CO2排放重心动态演化及分析[J].能源技术与管理,2011(5):24-27.
[14]王维华.中国经济重心与能源消费重心动态轨迹的实证研究[J].西安财经学院学报,2016,29(2):81-85.
[15]谢品杰,潘仙友,林美秀.中国电力强度重心迁移及差异研究[J].世界地理研究,2017,26(2):119-126.
[16]张露,龚承柱,李兰兰,等.中国天然气供需重心迁移路径及贡献度分解[J].中国人口·资源与环境,2013,23(12):90-97.
[17]李兰兰,徐婷婷,李方一,等.中国居民天然气消费重心迁移路径及增长动因分解[J].自然资源学报,2017,32(4):606-619.
[18]罗佐县,谷屹,杨宁,等.天然气对外依存度增长的风险管理分析[J].中外能源,2018,23(9):1-7.
[19]王南,裴玲,雷丹凤,等.中国非常规天然气资源分布及开发现状[J].油气地质与采收率,2015,22(1):26-31.
[20]杨春生.煤制天然气产业发展前景分析[J].中外能源,2010,15(7):35-40.
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