珠江三角洲地区服务业与城镇化协调关系的时空演变
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摘要
在厘清服务业与城镇化的关系机理基础上,构建了服务业系统与城镇化系统综合发展评价指标体系,运用熵值法对1987~2015年珠三角城镇化与服务业发展综合水平进行测度,利用耦合协调度模型对两者协调关系的时空演变特征进行了分析。结果表明:(1)时序演变上,珠三角服务业与城镇化综合发展水平保持持续稳定增长态势,两者协调度不断增强,2008年开始进入协调期。(2)空间演变上,服务业与城镇化的协调度呈现以珠江口城市为核心,逐渐向外圈层递减的空间分布规律;空间差异较大且保持相对稳定状态。(3)珠三角服务业与城镇化空间协调关系演变总体可分为均衡发展、惯性发展、反转发展3种模式,由1987年的4种失调类型演变为2015年初级协调等4种类型。(4)从加强服务业专业化分工和提升服务业发展潜力、加快空间城镇化和社会城镇化的发展、缩小服务业与城镇化协调关系的空间差异等方面提出对策建议,以推动珠三角服务业与城镇化的协调度向更高级别方向发展。
On the basis of clarifying the relationship between service industry and urbanization, this article constructs an evaluation index system for the comprehensive development of the service industry system and the urbanization system, and uses the entropy method to measure the comprehensive development level of the urbanization and service industry in the Pearl River Delta from 1987 to 2015. With the help of the coupling coordination model, the spatial-temporal evolution characteristics of the coordination relationship between the two are analyzed. The results show that: 1) In terms of the evolution of the time series, the comprehensive development level of service industry and urbanization in the Pearl River Delta has maintained a sustained and stable growth, and the coordination degree between the two has also been increasing. The relationship began to enter a coordination period in 2008. 2) In terms of spatial evolution, the coordination degree between the service industry and urbanization presents a spatial distribution pattern of taking the cities in the Pearl River Estuary as the core and gradually decreasing to outer circle; The spatial pattern is quite different and relatively stable. 3) The evolution of spatial coordination relationship between service industry and urbanization in the Pearl River Delta can be divided into 3 models: balanced development, inertial development and reversed development, it evolves from four imbalanced types in 1987 to 4 types of primary coordination in 2015. 4) This paper puts forward the countermeasures and suggestions from strengthening the specialized division of labor in service industry, improving the development potential of service industry, speeding up the development of spatial urbanization and social urbanization, narrowing the spatial differences of coordination relationship between service industry and urbanization, so as to promote the development of the coordination degree of the service industry and urbanization to an even higher level.
On the basis of clarifying the relationship between service industry and urbanization, this article constructs an evaluation index system for the comprehensive development of the service industry system and the urbanization system, and uses the entropy method to measure the comprehensive development level of the urbanization and service industry in the Pearl River Delta from 1987 to 2015. With the help of the coupling coordination model, the spatial-temporal evolution characteristics of the coordination relationship between the two are analyzed. The results show that: 1) In terms of the evolution of the time series, the comprehensive development level of service industry and urbanization in the Pearl River Delta has maintained a sustained and stable growth, and the coordination degree between the two has also been increasing. The relationship began to enter a coordination period in 2008. 2) In terms of spatial evolution, the coordination degree between the service industry and urbanization presents a spatial distribution pattern of taking the cities in the Pearl River Estuary as the core and gradually decreasing to outer circle; The spatial pattern is quite different and relatively stable. 3) The evolution of spatial coordination relationship between service industry and urbanization in the Pearl River Delta can be divided into 3 models: balanced development, inertial development and reversed development, it evolves from four imbalanced types in 1987 to 4 types of primary coordination in 2015. 4) This paper puts forward the countermeasures and suggestions from strengthening the specialized division of labor in service industry, improving the development potential of service industry, speeding up the development of spatial urbanization and social urbanization, narrowing the spatial differences of coordination relationship between service industry and urbanization, so as to promote the development of the coordination degree of the service industry and urbanization to an even higher level.
引文
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[18]廖伟华,聂鑫.基于大数据的城市服务业空间关联分析[J].地理科学,2017,37(9):1310-1317.[Liao Weihua,Nie Xin.Spatial Association Analysis for Urban Service Based on Big Data.Scientia Geographica Sinica,2017,37(9):1310-1317.]
[19]席强敏,陈曦,李国平.中国生产性服务业市场潜能与空间分布--基于面板工具模型的实证研究[J].地理科学,2016,36(1):1-9.[Xi Qiangmin,Chen Xi,Li Guoping.Market Potential and Spatial Distribution of Producer Services in China:An Empirical Research Based on Panel Model with Instrument Variables.Scientia Geographica Sinica,2016,36(1):1-9.]
[20]王富喜,毛爱华,李赫龙,等.基于熵值法的山东省城镇化质量测度及空间差异分析[J].地理科学,2013,33(11):1323-1329.[Wang Fuxi,Mao Aihua,Li Helong et al.Quality measurement and regional difference of urbanization in Shandong provice based on the entropy method.Scientia Geographica Sinica,2013,33(11):1323-1329.]
[21]杨俊,解鹏,席建超,等.基于元胞自动机模型的土地利用变化模拟--以大连经济技术开发区为例[J].地理学报,2015,73(3):461-475.[Yang Jun,Xie Peng,Xi Jianchao et al.LUCCsimulation based on the cellular automata simulation:A case study of Dalian Economic and Technological Development Zone.Acta Geographica Sinica,2015,73(3):461-475.]
[22]周春山,金万富,史晨怡.新时期珠江三角洲城市群发展战略的思考[J].地理科学进展,2015,34(3):302-312.[Zhou Chunshan,Jin Wanfu,Shi Chenyi.Development strategy of the Pearl River Delta Urban Agglomeration under the current socioeconomic situation.Progress in Geography,2015,34(3):302-312.]
[23]吕添贵,吴次芳,李洪义,等.人口城镇化与土地城镇化协调性测度及优化--以南昌市为例[J].地理科学,2016,36(2):239-246.[Lyu Tiangui,Wu Cifang,Li Hongyi et al.The coordination and its optimization about population and land of urbanization:a Case Study of Nanchang city,2016,36(2):239-246.]
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[25]广东省统计局.广东社会统计资料(1997~2003)[M].广州:广东省统计局,2004.[Guangdong Provincial Bureau of Statistics.Guandong Social Statistics.Guangzhou:Guangdong Provincial Bureau of Statistics,2004.]
[26]中华人民共和国国家统计局.中国第三产业统计年鉴[M].北京:中国统计出版社,1988-2016.[National Bureau of Statistics of the People's Republic of China.China Statistical Yearbook of the Tertiary Industry.Beijing:China Statistics Press,1988-2016.]
[27]珠江三角洲城市群年鉴编纂委员会.珠江三角洲城市群年鉴[M].广州:广东人民出版社,2010-2015.[Compilation Committee of Urban Agglomeration in the Pearl River Delta Yearbook.Urban Agglomeration in the Pearl River Delta Yearbook.Guangzhou:Guangdong People’s Publishing House,2010-2015.]
[28]Eunkook S,Diener Ed,Shigehiro O et al.The shifting of life satisfaction judgments across cultures:Emotions versus norms[J].Journal of Personality and Social Psychology,1998,74(2):482-493.
[29]陈明星,唐志鹏,白永平.城市化与经济发展的关系模式--对钱纳里模型的参数重估[J].地理学报,2013,68(6):739-749.[Chen Mingxing,Tang Zhipeng,Bai Yongping.Relational pattern of urbanization and economic development:The parameter revaluation of Chenery’s model.Acta Geographica Sinica,2013,68(6):739-749.]
[30]陈明星,叶超,周义.城市化速度曲线及其政策启示--对诺瑟姆曲线的讨论与发展[J].地理研究,2011,30(8):1499-1507.[Chen Mingxing,Ye Chao,Zhou Yi.Urbanization rate and its policy implications:Discussion and development of Northam’s curve,Geographical Research,2011,30(8):1499-1507.]
[31]许学强,周一星,宁越敏.城市地理学[M].北京:高等教育出版社,2012.[Xu Xueqiang,Zhou Yixing,Ning Yuemin.Urban geography.Beijing:High Education Press.]
[2]Black D,Henderson V.A Theory of urban growth[J].Journal of Political Economy,1999,107(2):252-284.
[3]Daniels P W,Oconnor K,Hutton T A.The planning response to urban service sector growth:An international comparison[J].Growth and Change,1991,22(4):3-26.
[4]Davis James C.Evidence on the political economy of the urbanization process[J].Journal of Urban Economics,2003(53):98-125.
[5]Krugman P R.Geography and trade[M].Cambridge:The MITPress,1991.
[6]Combes P.Economic structure and local growth:France[J].Journal of Urban Economics,2000,47(3):329-355.
[7]Abdel-Rahman H,Fujita M.Product variety,marshallian externalities,and city sizes[J].Journal of Regional Science,1990,30(2):165-183.
[8]Keeble D,Nachum L.Why do business service firms cluster?Small consultancies,clustering and decentralization in London and Southern England[J].Transactions of the Institute of British Geographers,2002,27(1):67-90.
[9]中华人民共和国国家统计局.中国统计年鉴.北京:中国统计出版社,2016.[National Bureau of Statistics of the People's Republic of China.China statistical yearbook.Beijing:China Statistics Press,2016.]
[10]龙奋杰,王雪芹,王爵,等.产业发展与城镇化互动关系分析[J].城市问题,2015,(7):19-25.[Long Fenjie,Wang Xueqin,Wang Jue et al.Analysis of the interaction between industrial development and urbanization.City Problems,2015(7):19-25.]
[11]曾国平,吴明娥.服务业的集聚与城市化--基于省级面板数据的空间计量分析[J].城市问题,2013(12):55-61.[Zeng Guoping,Wu Ming’e.Service industry agglomeration and urbanization:Spatial econometric analysis based on provincial panel data.Urban Problems,2013(12):55-61.]
[12]王为东,陈丽珍,陈健.生产性服务业集聚效应对我国城市化进程的影响研究--基于省级面板数据的实证分析[J].生态经济,2013,(9):114-115.[Wang Weidong,Chen Lizhen,Chen Jian.Aresearch on agglomeration effect of producer service on urbanization:provincial panel data analysis.Ecological Economy,2013(9):114-115.]
[13]王庆喜,钱遂,庞尧.环境约束下中国工业化与城镇化的关系演变--效率分析视角[J].地理科学,2017,37(1):92-101.[Wang Qingxi,Qian Sui,Pang Yao.Evolutional relationship between industrialization and urbanization under environmental constraints in China:DEA Analysis Perspective.Scientia Geographica Sinica,2017,37(1):92-101.]
[14]王毅,丁正山,余茂军,等.基于耦合模型的现代服务业与城市化协调关系量化分析--以江苏省常熟市为例[J].地理研究,2015,34(1):97-108.[Wang Yi,Ding Zhengshan,Yu Maojun et al.Quantitative analysis of the coordination relation between modern service industry and urbanization based on coupling model:A case study of Changshu.Geographical Research,2015,34(1):97-108.]
[15]冉建宇,张建升.中国城市化与服务业的协调发展研究[J].经济与管理,2011,25(7):5-9.[Ran Jianyu,Zhang Jiansheng.Research on the coordinated development of urbanization and services in China.Economy and Management,2011,25(7):5-9.]
[16]昌晶亮,余洪.大湘西地区旅游与城镇化耦合发展研究[J].经济地理,2016,36(6):204-208.[Chang Jingliang,Yu Hong.The coupling development of tourism and urbanization in Daxiangxi area.Economic geography,2016,36(6):204-208.]
[17]申玉铭,邱灵,任旺兵,等.中国服务业空间差异的影响因素与空间分异特征[J].地理研究,2007,26(6):1255-1264.[Shen Yuming,Qiu Ling,Ren Wangbing et al.Analysis on influencing factors and characteristics of spatial disparity in Chinese service industry.Geographical Research,2007,26(6):1255-1264.]
[18]廖伟华,聂鑫.基于大数据的城市服务业空间关联分析[J].地理科学,2017,37(9):1310-1317.[Liao Weihua,Nie Xin.Spatial Association Analysis for Urban Service Based on Big Data.Scientia Geographica Sinica,2017,37(9):1310-1317.]
[19]席强敏,陈曦,李国平.中国生产性服务业市场潜能与空间分布--基于面板工具模型的实证研究[J].地理科学,2016,36(1):1-9.[Xi Qiangmin,Chen Xi,Li Guoping.Market Potential and Spatial Distribution of Producer Services in China:An Empirical Research Based on Panel Model with Instrument Variables.Scientia Geographica Sinica,2016,36(1):1-9.]
[20]王富喜,毛爱华,李赫龙,等.基于熵值法的山东省城镇化质量测度及空间差异分析[J].地理科学,2013,33(11):1323-1329.[Wang Fuxi,Mao Aihua,Li Helong et al.Quality measurement and regional difference of urbanization in Shandong provice based on the entropy method.Scientia Geographica Sinica,2013,33(11):1323-1329.]
[21]杨俊,解鹏,席建超,等.基于元胞自动机模型的土地利用变化模拟--以大连经济技术开发区为例[J].地理学报,2015,73(3):461-475.[Yang Jun,Xie Peng,Xi Jianchao et al.LUCCsimulation based on the cellular automata simulation:A case study of Dalian Economic and Technological Development Zone.Acta Geographica Sinica,2015,73(3):461-475.]
[22]周春山,金万富,史晨怡.新时期珠江三角洲城市群发展战略的思考[J].地理科学进展,2015,34(3):302-312.[Zhou Chunshan,Jin Wanfu,Shi Chenyi.Development strategy of the Pearl River Delta Urban Agglomeration under the current socioeconomic situation.Progress in Geography,2015,34(3):302-312.]
[23]吕添贵,吴次芳,李洪义,等.人口城镇化与土地城镇化协调性测度及优化--以南昌市为例[J].地理科学,2016,36(2):239-246.[Lyu Tiangui,Wu Cifang,Li Hongyi et al.The coordination and its optimization about population and land of urbanization:a Case Study of Nanchang city,2016,36(2):239-246.]
[24]广东省统计局,国家统计局广东调查总队.广东统计年鉴(1988-2016)[M].北京:中国统计出版社,1988-2016.[Guangdong Provincial Bureau of Statistics,Guangdong Survey Office of National Bureau of Statistics.Guangdong Statistical Yearbook(1988~2016).Beijing:China Statistics Press,1988-2016.]
[25]广东省统计局.广东社会统计资料(1997~2003)[M].广州:广东省统计局,2004.[Guangdong Provincial Bureau of Statistics.Guandong Social Statistics.Guangzhou:Guangdong Provincial Bureau of Statistics,2004.]
[26]中华人民共和国国家统计局.中国第三产业统计年鉴[M].北京:中国统计出版社,1988-2016.[National Bureau of Statistics of the People's Republic of China.China Statistical Yearbook of the Tertiary Industry.Beijing:China Statistics Press,1988-2016.]
[27]珠江三角洲城市群年鉴编纂委员会.珠江三角洲城市群年鉴[M].广州:广东人民出版社,2010-2015.[Compilation Committee of Urban Agglomeration in the Pearl River Delta Yearbook.Urban Agglomeration in the Pearl River Delta Yearbook.Guangzhou:Guangdong People’s Publishing House,2010-2015.]
[28]Eunkook S,Diener Ed,Shigehiro O et al.The shifting of life satisfaction judgments across cultures:Emotions versus norms[J].Journal of Personality and Social Psychology,1998,74(2):482-493.
[29]陈明星,唐志鹏,白永平.城市化与经济发展的关系模式--对钱纳里模型的参数重估[J].地理学报,2013,68(6):739-749.[Chen Mingxing,Tang Zhipeng,Bai Yongping.Relational pattern of urbanization and economic development:The parameter revaluation of Chenery’s model.Acta Geographica Sinica,2013,68(6):739-749.]
[30]陈明星,叶超,周义.城市化速度曲线及其政策启示--对诺瑟姆曲线的讨论与发展[J].地理研究,2011,30(8):1499-1507.[Chen Mingxing,Ye Chao,Zhou Yi.Urbanization rate and its policy implications:Discussion and development of Northam’s curve,Geographical Research,2011,30(8):1499-1507.]
[31]许学强,周一星,宁越敏.城市地理学[M].北京:高等教育出版社,2012.[Xu Xueqiang,Zhou Yixing,Ning Yuemin.Urban geography.Beijing:High Education Press.]