长江经济带市场一体化的空间经济增长与非对称溢出效应
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摘要
基于长江经济带105个主要城市面板数据,实证检验了市场一体化的经济增长与非对称溢出效应,在不同空间权重矩阵下得到了稳健的结论:城市经济增长具有显著的空间相关性,但在考虑到空间关联因素后未能发现β收敛的证据,城市间经济增长差距有扩大态势;市场一体化对本地经济增长具有非线性的"倒U"影响特征,且有助于发挥水平溢出效应,进而实现本地与异地经济增长的"携手并进";市场一体化影响经济增长的垂直溢出效应具有非对称性,非港口城市、边界城市、内陆城市的市场一体化增长溢出效应要弱于港口城市、非边界城市与沿海地区城市,而且基于二区制空间杜宾模型也证实了经济增长垂直溢出效应的非对称性;通过对金融危机之前、金融危机时期以及后金融危机时期样本结论进行比较,发现了市场一体化的经济增长与非对称溢出效应在各阶段的不同特征。
Based on the panel data of 105 major cities in the Yangtze River Economic Belt, this paper makes an empirical analysis of the economic growth and asymmetric spillover effects of market integration, yielding a robust conclusion under different spatial weight matrices. Results show: there exists significant spatial correlation of urban economic growth, however, the evidence of β convergence is not found after taking the spatial correlation factors into account, which generally expands the economic growth gap between cities; the nonlinear "inverted U" curve between market integration and local economic growth is significant, which helps to realize the hand-in-hand economic growth among different cities through the horizontal spillover effect; furthermore, the vertical spillover effect of market integration is asymmetric, that is, the market integration growth spillover effects of non-port cities, border cities and inland cities are weaker than those of port cities, non-boundary cities and coastal cities; the asymmetry of vertical spillover effects has been further confirmed in reference to the spatial correlation coefficient of economic growth based on the Two-Regime Spatial Dubin model; in the end, this paper also finds some different features of the above conclusions at various stages of financial crisis.
Based on the panel data of 105 major cities in the Yangtze River Economic Belt, this paper makes an empirical analysis of the economic growth and asymmetric spillover effects of market integration, yielding a robust conclusion under different spatial weight matrices. Results show: there exists significant spatial correlation of urban economic growth, however, the evidence of β convergence is not found after taking the spatial correlation factors into account, which generally expands the economic growth gap between cities; the nonlinear "inverted U" curve between market integration and local economic growth is significant, which helps to realize the hand-in-hand economic growth among different cities through the horizontal spillover effect; furthermore, the vertical spillover effect of market integration is asymmetric, that is, the market integration growth spillover effects of non-port cities, border cities and inland cities are weaker than those of port cities, non-boundary cities and coastal cities; the asymmetry of vertical spillover effects has been further confirmed in reference to the spatial correlation coefficient of economic growth based on the Two-Regime Spatial Dubin model; in the end, this paper also finds some different features of the above conclusions at various stages of financial crisis.
引文
[1]孙久文,李恒森.我国区域经济演进轨迹及其总体趋势[J].改革,2017(7):16-29.
[2]孙博文.市场一体化是否有助于降低污染排放?---基于长江经济带城市面板数据的实证分析[J].环境经济研究,2018(1):37-57.
[3]孙博文,陈路,李浩民,等.市场分割的效率损失评估与机制验证[J].中国人口·资源与环境,2018(6):148-158.
[4]罗来军,文丰安.长江经济带高质量发展的战略选择[J].改革,2018(6):13-25.
[5]孙博文,雷明.市场分割、降成本与高质量发展:一个拓展新经济地理模型分析[J].改革,2018(7):53-63.
[6]MYRDALG.Economic theory and underdeveloped regions[M].London:Gerald Duckworth&Co.,1957.
[7]COMBES P P,MAYER T,THISSE F J,et al.Economic geography:the integration of regions and nations[M].Princeton University Press,2008.
[8]CROZET M,KOENIG P.The cohesion vs.growth trade off[J].Metalurgia International,2008,15(12):76-79.
[9]YING L G.Understanding China’s recent growth experience:a spatial econometric perspective[J].The Annals of Regional Science,2003,37(4):613-628.
[10]ZHANG Q,FELMINGHAMB.The role of FDI,exports and spillover effects in the regional development of China[J].Journal of Development Studies,2002,38(4):157-178.
[11]GROENEWOLD N,LEE G P,CHEN A P,et al.Regional output spillovers in China:Estimates from a VAR model[J].Papers in Regional Science,2007,86(1):101-122.
[12]GROENEWOLD N,LEE G P,CHEN AP,etal.Inter-regional spillovers in China:The importance of common shocks and the definition of the regions[J].China Economic Review,2008,19(1):32-52.
[13]SUN B W,LI H M,ZHAO Q Y,et al.Logistics agglomeration and logistics productivity in the USA[J].The Annals of Regional Science,2018,61(2):1-21.
(1)本文中位于省际边界的城市涵盖上海、南京、无锡、常州、苏州、南通、淮安、扬州、宿迁、嘉兴、湖州、蚌埠、马鞍山、淮北、安庆、黄山、滁州、宿州、六安、池州、南昌、景德镇、萍乡、九江、赣州、吉安、宜春、上饶、黄石、十堰、宜昌、孝感、黄冈、咸宁、长沙、株洲、岳阳、常德、郴州、怀化、重庆、成都、泸州、遂宁、内江、乐山、宜宾、广安、达州、资阳、贵阳、六盘水、遵义、安顺、曲靖、昭通。
(2)本文中长江流经城市涵盖上海、南京、南通、扬州、马鞍山、安庆、池州、九江、黄石、宜昌、黄冈、咸宁、岳阳、重庆、泸州、宜宾、镇江、泰州、宁波、舟山、合肥、芜湖、铜陵、武汉、鄂州、荆州等。
(3)本文中长江经济带沿海省份城市涵盖上海、南京、南通、扬州、镇江、泰州、宁波、舟山、无锡、常州、苏州、淮安、宿迁、嘉兴、湖州、徐州、连云港、盐城、杭州、温州、绍兴、金华、衢州、台州、丽水。
[2]孙博文.市场一体化是否有助于降低污染排放?---基于长江经济带城市面板数据的实证分析[J].环境经济研究,2018(1):37-57.
[3]孙博文,陈路,李浩民,等.市场分割的效率损失评估与机制验证[J].中国人口·资源与环境,2018(6):148-158.
[4]罗来军,文丰安.长江经济带高质量发展的战略选择[J].改革,2018(6):13-25.
[5]孙博文,雷明.市场分割、降成本与高质量发展:一个拓展新经济地理模型分析[J].改革,2018(7):53-63.
[6]MYRDALG.Economic theory and underdeveloped regions[M].London:Gerald Duckworth&Co.,1957.
[7]COMBES P P,MAYER T,THISSE F J,et al.Economic geography:the integration of regions and nations[M].Princeton University Press,2008.
[8]CROZET M,KOENIG P.The cohesion vs.growth trade off[J].Metalurgia International,2008,15(12):76-79.
[9]YING L G.Understanding China’s recent growth experience:a spatial econometric perspective[J].The Annals of Regional Science,2003,37(4):613-628.
[10]ZHANG Q,FELMINGHAMB.The role of FDI,exports and spillover effects in the regional development of China[J].Journal of Development Studies,2002,38(4):157-178.
[11]GROENEWOLD N,LEE G P,CHEN A P,et al.Regional output spillovers in China:Estimates from a VAR model[J].Papers in Regional Science,2007,86(1):101-122.
[12]GROENEWOLD N,LEE G P,CHEN AP,etal.Inter-regional spillovers in China:The importance of common shocks and the definition of the regions[J].China Economic Review,2008,19(1):32-52.
[13]SUN B W,LI H M,ZHAO Q Y,et al.Logistics agglomeration and logistics productivity in the USA[J].The Annals of Regional Science,2018,61(2):1-21.
(1)本文中位于省际边界的城市涵盖上海、南京、无锡、常州、苏州、南通、淮安、扬州、宿迁、嘉兴、湖州、蚌埠、马鞍山、淮北、安庆、黄山、滁州、宿州、六安、池州、南昌、景德镇、萍乡、九江、赣州、吉安、宜春、上饶、黄石、十堰、宜昌、孝感、黄冈、咸宁、长沙、株洲、岳阳、常德、郴州、怀化、重庆、成都、泸州、遂宁、内江、乐山、宜宾、广安、达州、资阳、贵阳、六盘水、遵义、安顺、曲靖、昭通。
(2)本文中长江流经城市涵盖上海、南京、南通、扬州、马鞍山、安庆、池州、九江、黄石、宜昌、黄冈、咸宁、岳阳、重庆、泸州、宜宾、镇江、泰州、宁波、舟山、合肥、芜湖、铜陵、武汉、鄂州、荆州等。
(3)本文中长江经济带沿海省份城市涵盖上海、南京、南通、扬州、镇江、泰州、宁波、舟山、无锡、常州、苏州、淮安、宿迁、嘉兴、湖州、徐州、连云港、盐城、杭州、温州、绍兴、金华、衢州、台州、丽水。