逆全球化背景下我国牧草产业发展的战略选择
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摘要
随着逆全球化思潮和贸易保护主义盛行,探究可能的贸易摩擦对牧草产业的影响,明确牧草产业在该背景下的发展战略,具有重要现实意义。剖析了当前我国牧草产业发展的趋势,近年来,我国牧草生产体量较大,牧草消费需求不断增长,国产牧草价格有所下滑;草产品进口增速放缓,但对美国牧草依赖较大。就可能的贸易摩擦影响而言,短期内会影响国内草产品市场及奶业发展;长期来看,会成为牧草产业发展的契机,助推牧草产业快速发展;同时会加剧草产品进口市场竞争力度。建议重新定位农业生产系统,突出草业发展战略地位;扶持牧草产业快速发展,加快牧草商品化进程;关注国际草产品市场,推动进口市场多元化;建立草产品储备制度,加快推进草产品流通。
With the prevailing of reverse globalization trend of thought and trade protectionism,it is of important significance to explore the influence of possible trade friction on forage industry,and clarify the development strategy of forage industry under this background. This paper analyzed the development trend of China's forage industry. In recent years,the forage production volume was larger,demand for forage products was on the rise. The price of homegrown forage was declining. The growth rate of import forage products was slackening,while the demand for forage products produced in United States of America was still bigger. In short term,the possible trade friction would affect the domestic forage market and development of dairy industry. In the long term,it might become opportunities for developing domestic forage industry,and promoting its rapid development. At the same time,it would intensify the competitive strength of import market. The paper suggested that repositioning agricultural production system,highlighting the strategic position of forage industry,supporting the rapid development of forage industry,accelerating the commercialization process of forage products, focusing on the international forage market, promoting the diversification of forage import market,establishing the forage reserve system,and expediting the circulation of forage products.
With the prevailing of reverse globalization trend of thought and trade protectionism,it is of important significance to explore the influence of possible trade friction on forage industry,and clarify the development strategy of forage industry under this background. This paper analyzed the development trend of China's forage industry. In recent years,the forage production volume was larger,demand for forage products was on the rise. The price of homegrown forage was declining. The growth rate of import forage products was slackening,while the demand for forage products produced in United States of America was still bigger. In short term,the possible trade friction would affect the domestic forage market and development of dairy industry. In the long term,it might become opportunities for developing domestic forage industry,and promoting its rapid development. At the same time,it would intensify the competitive strength of import market. The paper suggested that repositioning agricultural production system,highlighting the strategic position of forage industry,supporting the rapid development of forage industry,accelerating the commercialization process of forage products, focusing on the international forage market, promoting the diversification of forage import market,establishing the forage reserve system,and expediting the circulation of forage products.
引文
[1]杨春,王明利.中国牧草产业经济2014[M].北京:中国农业出版社,2015.
[2]王明利.中国牧草产业经济2015[M].北京:中国农业出版社,2017.
[3]海关信息网[DB/OL].http://www.haiguan.info.
[4]张英俊,任继周,王明利,等.论牧草产业在我国农业产业结构中的地位和发展布局[J].中国农业科技导报,2013,15(4):61-71.Zhang Y J,Ren J Z,Wang M L,et al..Discussion on the position and development distribution of forage industry in China's agricultural industry structure[J].J.Agric.Sci.Technol.,2013,15(4):61-71.
[5]王明利,杨春,胡向东,等.关于苜蓿产业发展对粮食安全影响的政治经济学思考[J].草业科学,2012,29(12):1936-1940.Wang M L,Yang C,Hu X D,et al..Conception of alfalfa industry development influencing on food security[J].Pratacult.Sci.,2012,29(12):1936-1940.
[6]王明利.有效破解粮食安全问题的新思路:着力发展牧草产业[J].中国农村经济,2015(12):63-74.Wang M L.A new approach to ensuring China's food security:Developing forage industry[J].Chin.Rural Econ.,2015(12):63-74.
[7]石自忠,王明利.苜蓿与竞争农作物投入产出的比较[J].草业科学,2013,30(8):1259-1265.Shi Z Z,Wang M L.Input and output comparison between alfalfa and its competitive crops[J].Pratacult.Sci.,2013,30(8):1259-1265.
[8]石自忠,王明利,胡向东,等.我国牧草种植成本收益变化与比较[J].草业科学,2017,34(4):902-911.Shi Z Z,Wang M L,Hu X D,et al..Variation and comparison of forages'cost-benefits in China[J].Pratacult.Sci.,2017,34(4):902-911.
[9]刘亚钊,王明利,修长柏.我国牧草产品国际竞争力分析[J].农业经济问题,2011,32(7):86-90.Liu Y Z,Wang M L,Xiu C B.A study on the international competitiveness of Chinese fodder[J].Issu.Agric.Econ.,2011,32(7):86-90.
[10]江影舟,张洁冰,南志标,等.中国苜蓿国际贸易竞争力分析[J].草业科学,2016,33(2):322-329.Jiang Y Z,Zhang J B,Nan Z B,et al..Competitiveness analysis of alfalfa international trade in China[J].Pratacult.Sci.,2016,33(2):322-329.
[11]杨春,王明利,刘亚钊.中国的苜蓿草贸易---历史变迁、未来趋势与对策建议[J].草业科学,2011,28(9):1711-1717.Yang C,Wang M L,Liu Y Z.Alfalfa trade of China,historical changes,future trends and suggestions[J].Pratacult.Sci.,2011,28(9):1711-1717.
[12]刘亚钊,王明利,杨春,等.中国牧草种子国际贸易格局研究及启示[J].草业科学,2012,29(7):1176-1181.Liu Y Z,Wang M L,Yang C,et al..International trade structure of forage seed of China and its enlightenment[J].Pratacult.Sci.,2012,29(7):1176-1181.
[13]杨春,王国刚,王明利.我国的燕麦草生产和贸易[J].草业科学,2017,34(5):1129-1135.Yang C,Wang G G,Wang M L.Production and trade of wild oat forage in China[J].Pratacult.Sci.,2017,34(5):1129-1135.
[14]汪武静,王明利,吕官旺,等.美国苜蓿贸易---趋势、经验与启示[J].草业科学,2016,33(3):527-534.Wang W J,Wang M L,Lv G W,et al..Trend,lessons and enlightenment of the alfalfa trade in the United States[J].Pratacult.Sci.,2016,33(3):527-534.
[15]刘玉凤,王明利,石自忠,等.我国苜蓿产业技术效率及科技进步贡献分析[J].草业科学,2014,31(10):1990-1997.Liu Y F,Wang M L,Shi Z Z,et al..Analysis of technical efficiency and technical progress contribution of alfalfa production[J].Pratacult.Sci.,2014,31(10):1990-1997.
[16]汪武静,王明利.我国西南地区黑麦草种植技术效率及科技进步贡献分析---以四川省为例[J].中国农业科技导报,2017,19(6):21-28.Wang W J,Wang M L.Analysis of ryegrass planting technical efficiency and technological progress contribution in southwest China:Taking Sichuan province as an example[J].J.Agric.Sci.Technol.,2017,19(6):21-28.
[17]王文信,张志虹,孙乾晋.农户苜蓿种植的规模效率分析---基于河北省黄骅市的实证分析[J].中国农业大学学报(社会科学版),2016,33(3):42-49.Wang W X,Zhang Z H,Sun Q J.Analysis of farmers'alfalfa planting scale efficiency:Empirical analysis of Huanghua county,Hebei province[J].J.China Agric.Univ.(Soc.Sci.),2016,33(3):42-49.
[18]王国刚,王明利,王济民,等.中国南方牧草产业发展基础、前景与建议[J].草业科学,2015,32(12):2114-2121.Wang G G,Wang M L,Wang J M,et al..Foundation,prospects and suggestions for the development of the forage industry in southern China[J].Pratacult.Sci.,2015,32(12):2114-2121.
[19]王国良,贾春林,盛亦兵.山东省牧草产业发展技术需求及建议[J].草业科学,2010,27(12):152-156.Wang G L,Jia C L,Sheng Y B.Technological requirements and advices of forage industry development in Shandong province[J].Pratacult.Sci.,2010,27(12):152-156.
[20]周开洪,王明利,钟家有,等.江西省牧草产业发展研究[J].农业现代化研究,2010,31(6):708-711.Zhou K H,Wang M L,Zhong J Y,et al..Development of forage industry in Jiangxi province[J].Res.Agric.Modern.,2010,31(6):708-711.
[21]王文信,王艺璇,张跃.基于PMP模型的农户苜蓿种植补贴效果实证分析---以河北省黄骅市为例[J].中国农业大学学报,2017,22(7):221-228.Wang W X,Wang Y X,Zhang Y.Empirical analysis of alfalfa subsidies'effect based on PMP model:A case study of Huanghua city,Hebei porvince[J].J.China Agric.Univ.,2017,22(7):221-228.
[22]李新,修长柏.农牧民苜蓿种植行为选择意愿影响因素实证研究---基于内蒙古386户微观调查数据[J].干旱区资源与环境,2015,29(5):30-35.Li X,Xiu C B.Empirical research on farmers and herdsmen'willingness of planting alfalfa and its influential factors in Inner Mongolia[J].J.Arid Land Res.Environ.,2015,29(5):30-55.
[23]王文信,蔡世攀,王刚.黄淮海地区农户苜蓿种植行为影响因素分析[J].农业工程学报,2015,31(S1):284-290.Wang W X,Cai S P,Wang G.Empirical analysis of factors affecting alfalfa plantation behavior of farmers in Huang-huaihai region[J].Trans.CSAE,2015,31(S1):284-290.
[24]全国畜牧总站.中国草业统计[M].北京:中国农业出版社,2009-2017.
[25]统计局.全国农产品成本收益资料汇编[Z].北京:中国统计出版社,2011-2017.
[26]石自忠,王明利,刘亚钊.我国牧草产业国际竞争力分析[J].草业科学,2018,35(10):2530-2539.Shi Z Z,Wang M L,Liu Y Z.A study on international competitiveness of China's forage industry[J].Pratacult.Sci.,2018,35(10):2530-2539.
[27]UN Comtrade数据库[DB/OL].https://comtrade.un.org/data.
[2]王明利.中国牧草产业经济2015[M].北京:中国农业出版社,2017.
[3]海关信息网[DB/OL].http://www.haiguan.info.
[4]张英俊,任继周,王明利,等.论牧草产业在我国农业产业结构中的地位和发展布局[J].中国农业科技导报,2013,15(4):61-71.Zhang Y J,Ren J Z,Wang M L,et al..Discussion on the position and development distribution of forage industry in China's agricultural industry structure[J].J.Agric.Sci.Technol.,2013,15(4):61-71.
[5]王明利,杨春,胡向东,等.关于苜蓿产业发展对粮食安全影响的政治经济学思考[J].草业科学,2012,29(12):1936-1940.Wang M L,Yang C,Hu X D,et al..Conception of alfalfa industry development influencing on food security[J].Pratacult.Sci.,2012,29(12):1936-1940.
[6]王明利.有效破解粮食安全问题的新思路:着力发展牧草产业[J].中国农村经济,2015(12):63-74.Wang M L.A new approach to ensuring China's food security:Developing forage industry[J].Chin.Rural Econ.,2015(12):63-74.
[7]石自忠,王明利.苜蓿与竞争农作物投入产出的比较[J].草业科学,2013,30(8):1259-1265.Shi Z Z,Wang M L.Input and output comparison between alfalfa and its competitive crops[J].Pratacult.Sci.,2013,30(8):1259-1265.
[8]石自忠,王明利,胡向东,等.我国牧草种植成本收益变化与比较[J].草业科学,2017,34(4):902-911.Shi Z Z,Wang M L,Hu X D,et al..Variation and comparison of forages'cost-benefits in China[J].Pratacult.Sci.,2017,34(4):902-911.
[9]刘亚钊,王明利,修长柏.我国牧草产品国际竞争力分析[J].农业经济问题,2011,32(7):86-90.Liu Y Z,Wang M L,Xiu C B.A study on the international competitiveness of Chinese fodder[J].Issu.Agric.Econ.,2011,32(7):86-90.
[10]江影舟,张洁冰,南志标,等.中国苜蓿国际贸易竞争力分析[J].草业科学,2016,33(2):322-329.Jiang Y Z,Zhang J B,Nan Z B,et al..Competitiveness analysis of alfalfa international trade in China[J].Pratacult.Sci.,2016,33(2):322-329.
[11]杨春,王明利,刘亚钊.中国的苜蓿草贸易---历史变迁、未来趋势与对策建议[J].草业科学,2011,28(9):1711-1717.Yang C,Wang M L,Liu Y Z.Alfalfa trade of China,historical changes,future trends and suggestions[J].Pratacult.Sci.,2011,28(9):1711-1717.
[12]刘亚钊,王明利,杨春,等.中国牧草种子国际贸易格局研究及启示[J].草业科学,2012,29(7):1176-1181.Liu Y Z,Wang M L,Yang C,et al..International trade structure of forage seed of China and its enlightenment[J].Pratacult.Sci.,2012,29(7):1176-1181.
[13]杨春,王国刚,王明利.我国的燕麦草生产和贸易[J].草业科学,2017,34(5):1129-1135.Yang C,Wang G G,Wang M L.Production and trade of wild oat forage in China[J].Pratacult.Sci.,2017,34(5):1129-1135.
[14]汪武静,王明利,吕官旺,等.美国苜蓿贸易---趋势、经验与启示[J].草业科学,2016,33(3):527-534.Wang W J,Wang M L,Lv G W,et al..Trend,lessons and enlightenment of the alfalfa trade in the United States[J].Pratacult.Sci.,2016,33(3):527-534.
[15]刘玉凤,王明利,石自忠,等.我国苜蓿产业技术效率及科技进步贡献分析[J].草业科学,2014,31(10):1990-1997.Liu Y F,Wang M L,Shi Z Z,et al..Analysis of technical efficiency and technical progress contribution of alfalfa production[J].Pratacult.Sci.,2014,31(10):1990-1997.
[16]汪武静,王明利.我国西南地区黑麦草种植技术效率及科技进步贡献分析---以四川省为例[J].中国农业科技导报,2017,19(6):21-28.Wang W J,Wang M L.Analysis of ryegrass planting technical efficiency and technological progress contribution in southwest China:Taking Sichuan province as an example[J].J.Agric.Sci.Technol.,2017,19(6):21-28.
[17]王文信,张志虹,孙乾晋.农户苜蓿种植的规模效率分析---基于河北省黄骅市的实证分析[J].中国农业大学学报(社会科学版),2016,33(3):42-49.Wang W X,Zhang Z H,Sun Q J.Analysis of farmers'alfalfa planting scale efficiency:Empirical analysis of Huanghua county,Hebei province[J].J.China Agric.Univ.(Soc.Sci.),2016,33(3):42-49.
[18]王国刚,王明利,王济民,等.中国南方牧草产业发展基础、前景与建议[J].草业科学,2015,32(12):2114-2121.Wang G G,Wang M L,Wang J M,et al..Foundation,prospects and suggestions for the development of the forage industry in southern China[J].Pratacult.Sci.,2015,32(12):2114-2121.
[19]王国良,贾春林,盛亦兵.山东省牧草产业发展技术需求及建议[J].草业科学,2010,27(12):152-156.Wang G L,Jia C L,Sheng Y B.Technological requirements and advices of forage industry development in Shandong province[J].Pratacult.Sci.,2010,27(12):152-156.
[20]周开洪,王明利,钟家有,等.江西省牧草产业发展研究[J].农业现代化研究,2010,31(6):708-711.Zhou K H,Wang M L,Zhong J Y,et al..Development of forage industry in Jiangxi province[J].Res.Agric.Modern.,2010,31(6):708-711.
[21]王文信,王艺璇,张跃.基于PMP模型的农户苜蓿种植补贴效果实证分析---以河北省黄骅市为例[J].中国农业大学学报,2017,22(7):221-228.Wang W X,Wang Y X,Zhang Y.Empirical analysis of alfalfa subsidies'effect based on PMP model:A case study of Huanghua city,Hebei porvince[J].J.China Agric.Univ.,2017,22(7):221-228.
[22]李新,修长柏.农牧民苜蓿种植行为选择意愿影响因素实证研究---基于内蒙古386户微观调查数据[J].干旱区资源与环境,2015,29(5):30-35.Li X,Xiu C B.Empirical research on farmers and herdsmen'willingness of planting alfalfa and its influential factors in Inner Mongolia[J].J.Arid Land Res.Environ.,2015,29(5):30-55.
[23]王文信,蔡世攀,王刚.黄淮海地区农户苜蓿种植行为影响因素分析[J].农业工程学报,2015,31(S1):284-290.Wang W X,Cai S P,Wang G.Empirical analysis of factors affecting alfalfa plantation behavior of farmers in Huang-huaihai region[J].Trans.CSAE,2015,31(S1):284-290.
[24]全国畜牧总站.中国草业统计[M].北京:中国农业出版社,2009-2017.
[25]统计局.全国农产品成本收益资料汇编[Z].北京:中国统计出版社,2011-2017.
[26]石自忠,王明利,刘亚钊.我国牧草产业国际竞争力分析[J].草业科学,2018,35(10):2530-2539.Shi Z Z,Wang M L,Liu Y Z.A study on international competitiveness of China's forage industry[J].Pratacult.Sci.,2018,35(10):2530-2539.
[27]UN Comtrade数据库[DB/OL].https://comtrade.un.org/data.