基于偏最小二乘回归的冬季北太平洋风暴轴指数的特征诊断
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摘要
针对现有风暴轴指数分析大多采用相关分析等较为简单方法,难以对风暴轴指数变化有效诊断分析的问题,引入偏最小二乘回归(Partial Least Square Regression,PLS)的线性方法和核偏最小二乘回归方法(Kernel Partial Least Square Regression,KPLS),对冬季北太平洋风暴轴指数变化进行了特征诊断研究,并与传统的线性无偏最小二乘回归结果进行了试验比对。结果表明:偏最小二乘回归方法的诊断结果能够更好地反映风暴轴内部变化规律,并有效降低诊断误差。对于PNYI(北太平洋风暴轴纬度指数),采用r>0. 2的因子筛选方案(r为因子与风暴轴指数的相关系数)并应用KPLS算法时,预测效果最佳;对于PNXI(北太平洋风暴轴经度指数)和PNII(北太平洋风暴轴强度指数),采用全因子方案并应用KPLS算法时,预测效果最佳。
With most of the existing analyses about storm track indices using such simple methods as correlation analysis and doing a bad job in diagnostic prediction,the Partial Least Square regression (PLS)containing the linear method and the Kernel Partial Least Square regression (KPLS) were introduced to study the variation of winter storm track indices in the North Pacific. The experiment results,comparing with those of conventional least square regression,indicates a better performance of PLS in revealing the inherent variation rules and reducing the diagnostic error. In terms of the winter North Pacific storm track latitude index (PNYI),the combination of KPLS and the factor-filtering scheme of r>0.2 (r is the correlation coefficient between the factors and the storm track indices) performs best. As for the longitude index (PNYI) and the intensity index (PNII),the combination of KPLS and the all-factor scheme performs best.
With most of the existing analyses about storm track indices using such simple methods as correlation analysis and doing a bad job in diagnostic prediction,the Partial Least Square regression (PLS)containing the linear method and the Kernel Partial Least Square regression (KPLS) were introduced to study the variation of winter storm track indices in the North Pacific. The experiment results,comparing with those of conventional least square regression,indicates a better performance of PLS in revealing the inherent variation rules and reducing the diagnostic error. In terms of the winter North Pacific storm track latitude index (PNYI),the combination of KPLS and the factor-filtering scheme of r>0.2 (r is the correlation coefficient between the factors and the storm track indices) performs best. As for the longitude index (PNYI) and the intensity index (PNII),the combination of KPLS and the all-factor scheme performs best.
引文
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[15]高琦.冬季北太平洋风暴轴的时空演变及其与AO关系的初步研究[硕士论文].南京:南京信息工程大学,2006.GAO Qi.The spatio-temporal evolution of wintertime North Pacific Storm Track and its relationship with Arctic Oscillation[D].Nanjing:Nanjing University of Information Science&Technology(in Chinese),2006.
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[18]刘鸣彦,朱伟军,高洁,等.冬季北半球极涡强度对北太平洋风暴轴的影响.大气科学学报,2013,36(3):297-308.LIU Mingyan,ZHU Weijun,GAO Jie,et al.Effects of northern polar vortex intensity on North Pacific storm track during winter.Transactions of Atmospheric Sciences(in Chinese),2013,36(3):297-308.
[19]刘鸣彦.冬季极涡对北太平洋风暴轴的影响及其可能机制研究[硕士论文].南京:南京信息工程大学,2013.LIU Mingyan.Study on the impact of polar vortex on north Pacific storm track and its possible mechanism during winter[D].Nanjing:Nanjing University of Information Science&Technology(in Chinese),2013.
[20]王杰,潘景昌,谭鑫.基于线指数的核偏最小二乘回归在恒星大气物理参数测量中的应用.光谱学与光谱分析,2014,34(3):833-837.WANG Jie,PAN Jingchang,TAN Xin.Application of KPLSRbased on line index in Stellar atmospheric physical parameter measurement.Spectroscopy and Spectral Analysis(in Chinese),2014,34(3):833-837.
[21]HONG Mei,ZHANG Ren,BAI Chengzu,et al.Reconstruction of statistical-dynamical model of the Western Pacific subtropical high and East Asian summer monsoon factors and its forecast experiments.Nat.Hazards,2015,75(3):2863-2883.
[22]李庆雷,马楠,付遵涛.时间序列非平稳检测方法的对比分析.北京大学学报(自然科学版),2013,49(2):252-260.LI Qinglei,MA Nan,FU Zuntao.Comparative analysis of detection methods of non-stationarity in time series.Acta Scientiarum Naturalium Universitis Pekinensis(in Chinese),2013,49(2):252-260.
[2]傅刚,毕玮,郭敬天.北太平洋风暴轴的三维空间结构.气象学报,2009,67(2):189-200.FU Gang,BI Wei,GUO Jingtian,et al.Three-dimensional structure of storm track over the North Pacific.Acta Meteorologica Sinica(in Chinese),2009,67(2):189-200.
[3]朱伟军,袁凯,陈懿妮.北太平洋东部风暴轴的时空演变特征.大气科学,2013,37(1):65-80.ZHU Weijun,YUAN Kai,CHEN Yini.Spatial and temporal variations in the eastern North Pacific storm track.Chinese Journal of Atmospheric Sciences(in Chinese),2013,37(1):65-80.
[4]李莹,朱伟军,魏建苏.冬季北太平洋风暴轴指数的评估及其改进.大气科学,2010,34(5):1001-1010.LI Ying,ZHU Weijun,WEI Jiansu.Reappraisal and improvement of winter storm track indices in the North Pacific.Chinese Journal of Atmospheric Sciences(in Chinese),2010,34(5):1001-1010.
[5]曾鼎文,朱伟军,李耀辉,等.冬季北大西洋风暴轴的东西变化及其能量诊断.气象科学,2015,35(6):691-700.ZENG Dingwen,ZHU Weijun,LI Yaohui,et al.Zonal variations and its energy budget analysis of North Atlantic storm track in winter.Journal of the Meteorological Sciences(in Chinese),2015,35(6):691-700.
[6]顾聪,朱伟军.一种风暴轴逐日监测的方法及应用.气象科学,2015,35(3):268-278.GU Cong,ZHU Weijun.Daily monitoring method of storm track and its application.Journal of the Meteorological Sciences(in Chinese),2015,35(3):268-278.
[7]任雪娟,杨修群,韩博,等.北太平洋风暴轴的变异特征及其与中纬度海气耦合关系分析.地球物理学报,2007,50(1):92-100.REN Xuejuan,YANG Xiuqun,HAN Bo,et al.Storm track variations in the North Pacific in winter season and the coupled pattern with the midlatitude atmosphere-ocean system.Chinese Journal of Geophysics(in Chinese),2007,50(1):92-100.
[8]顾沛澍.冬季北太平洋风暴轴与东亚冬季风的关系[硕士论文].南京:南京信息工程大学,2013.GU Peishu.The relationship between North Pacific storm track and East Asian monsoon during winter[D].Nanjing:Nanjing University of Information Science&Technology(in Chinese),2013.
[9]王娜.北太平洋风暴轴及其与我国冷空气活动的关系[硕士论文].南京:南京信息工程大学,2013.WANG Na.North Pacific storm track and its relationship with cold air activity in China[D].Nanjing:Nanjing University of Information Science&Technology(in Chinese),2013.
[10]王惠文,吴载斌,孟洁.偏最小二乘回归的线性与非线性方法.北京:国防工业出版社,2006:168.WANG Huiwen,WU Zaibin,MENG Jie.Partial least-squares regression:linear and nonlinear methods.Beijing:National Defense Industry Press(in Chinese),2006:168.
[11]Wold H.Estimation of principal components and related models by iterative least squares.J.Mult.Anal.,1966,1:391-420.
[12]Smoliak B V,Wallace J M,Stoelinga M T,et al.Application o partial least squares regression to the diagnosis of year-to-year variations in Pacific Northwest snowpack and Atlantic hurricanes Geophys.Res.Lett.,2010,37(3).doi:10.1029/2009GL041478.
[13]宋金杰,王元,陈佩燕,等.基于偏最小二乘回归理论的西北太平洋热带气旋强度统计预报方法.气象学报,2011,69(5):745-756.SONG Jinjie,WANG Yuan,CHEN Peiyan,et al.A statistica prediction scheme of tropical cyclone intensity over the western North Pacific based on the partial least square regression.Acta Meteorologica Science(in Chinese),2011,69(5):745-756.
[14]赵华生,金龙.基于偏最小二乘法的前汛期月降水量预测方法.气象科技,2013,41(4):690-695,752.ZHAO Huasheng,JIN Long.PLS-based prediction of monthly precipitation in early rainy season.Meteorological Science and Technology(in Chinese),2013,41(4):690-695,752.
[15]高琦.冬季北太平洋风暴轴的时空演变及其与AO关系的初步研究[硕士论文].南京:南京信息工程大学,2006.GAO Qi.The spatio-temporal evolution of wintertime North Pacific Storm Track and its relationship with Arctic Oscillation[D].Nanjing:Nanjing University of Information Science&Technology(in Chinese),2006.
[16]朱伟军,孙照渤,彭加毅.冬季太平洋SST异常对风暴轴和急流的影响.南京气象学院学报,1999,22(4):575-581.ZHU Weijun,SUN Zhaobo,PENG Jiayi.Effects of winter Pacific SSTA on the storm track and jet stream.Journal of Nanjing Institute of Meteorology(in Chinese),1999,22(4):575-581.
[17]顾沛澍,朱伟军,刘鸣彦,等.冬季北太平洋风暴轴异常及其与东亚大气环流的关系.气象科学,2013,33(6):610-618.GU P eishu,ZHU Weijun,LIU Mingyan,et al.Storm track anomaly over the north P acific in winter and its relation with atmospheric circulation over East Asia.Journal of the Meteorological Sciences(in Chinese),2013,33(6):610-618.
[18]刘鸣彦,朱伟军,高洁,等.冬季北半球极涡强度对北太平洋风暴轴的影响.大气科学学报,2013,36(3):297-308.LIU Mingyan,ZHU Weijun,GAO Jie,et al.Effects of northern polar vortex intensity on North Pacific storm track during winter.Transactions of Atmospheric Sciences(in Chinese),2013,36(3):297-308.
[19]刘鸣彦.冬季极涡对北太平洋风暴轴的影响及其可能机制研究[硕士论文].南京:南京信息工程大学,2013.LIU Mingyan.Study on the impact of polar vortex on north Pacific storm track and its possible mechanism during winter[D].Nanjing:Nanjing University of Information Science&Technology(in Chinese),2013.
[20]王杰,潘景昌,谭鑫.基于线指数的核偏最小二乘回归在恒星大气物理参数测量中的应用.光谱学与光谱分析,2014,34(3):833-837.WANG Jie,PAN Jingchang,TAN Xin.Application of KPLSRbased on line index in Stellar atmospheric physical parameter measurement.Spectroscopy and Spectral Analysis(in Chinese),2014,34(3):833-837.
[21]HONG Mei,ZHANG Ren,BAI Chengzu,et al.Reconstruction of statistical-dynamical model of the Western Pacific subtropical high and East Asian summer monsoon factors and its forecast experiments.Nat.Hazards,2015,75(3):2863-2883.
[22]李庆雷,马楠,付遵涛.时间序列非平稳检测方法的对比分析.北京大学学报(自然科学版),2013,49(2):252-260.LI Qinglei,MA Nan,FU Zuntao.Comparative analysis of detection methods of non-stationarity in time series.Acta Scientiarum Naturalium Universitis Pekinensis(in Chinese),2013,49(2):252-260.