中国制造业创新驱动增长及异质性考察
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摘要
通过构建动态循环联立方程模型,利用2009—2015年中国制造业细分行业面板数据,揭示创新驱动制造业TFP增长的复杂机理及关键制约要素。研究发现:R&D投资能够通过提高创新产出能力进而实现对TFP的提升,但这种机制的实现具有滞后性;创新过程各阶段产出的反馈效应也具有滞后性,时滞特征放大了创新驱动的行业差异。基于技术密集度的分类研究进一步发现,各类行业创新驱动增长的机制存在差别;技术成果转化脱节、人力资本结构不合理、国有经济改革不完善以及二次创新能力较弱等问题阻碍了制造业创新驱动增长的有效进行。
Through building the cyclic dynamic simultaneous equations model and using the panel dates on China's manufacturing industry from 2009 to 2015,this research reveals the intricate mechanisms of the innovation driving manufacturing TFP growth and the key factors in the process. The results demonstrate that: firstly,R&D investment can speed up TFP growth by improving the innovation output ability,but the realization of this mechanism needs time lags. The feedback effects of the output in different stage also have the same situation. The time-lag characteristics amplifies the innovation-driven differences of industries. Secondly,the classification studies based on the technology intensity have further found that there are differences in the innovation-driven mechanisms of industries. Disconnect in the technological achievements transformation,unreasonable structure of human capital,imperfect reform of state-owned economy and the weaker secondary innovation abilities hinder the innovation-driven processes.
Through building the cyclic dynamic simultaneous equations model and using the panel dates on China's manufacturing industry from 2009 to 2015,this research reveals the intricate mechanisms of the innovation driving manufacturing TFP growth and the key factors in the process. The results demonstrate that: firstly,R&D investment can speed up TFP growth by improving the innovation output ability,but the realization of this mechanism needs time lags. The feedback effects of the output in different stage also have the same situation. The time-lag characteristics amplifies the innovation-driven differences of industries. Secondly,the classification studies based on the technology intensity have further found that there are differences in the innovation-driven mechanisms of industries. Disconnect in the technological achievements transformation,unreasonable structure of human capital,imperfect reform of state-owned economy and the weaker secondary innovation abilities hinder the innovation-driven processes.
引文
[1]江飞涛,武鹏,李晓萍.中国工业经济增长动力机制转换[J].中国工业经济,2014(5):5-17.
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[4]赵传仁,韩先锋,宋文飞.研发投资对企业技术进步影响的异质门槛效应[J].中国科技论坛,2016(9):85-89.
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[7]顾婷婷,杨德才,刘丽.人力资本结构与企业技术创新的关系研究——基于技术系统演化的视角[J].技术经济与管理研究,2016(1):28-34.
[8]王利.企业创新驱动增长的测度与实证分析[J].统计研究,2015(8):62-68.
[9]周迪,钟绍军.创新价值链视角下区域创新水平分布动态及链间影响[J].中国科技论坛,2018(6):110-120.
[10]陈诗一.中国工业分行业统计数据估算:1980—2008[J].经济学(季刊),2011(3):735-776.
[11]肖兴志,谢理.中国战略性新兴产业创新效率的实证分析[J].经济管理,2011(11):26-35.
[12]程慧芳,陈超.开放经济下知识资本与全要素生产率[J].经济研究,2017(10):21-36.
[13]解维敏,唐清泉,陆姗姗.政府R&D资助,企业R&D支出与自主创新——来自中国上市公司的经验证据[J].金融研究,2009(6):86-99.
[14]戴翔,刘梦,任志成.劳动力演化如何影响中国工业发展:转移还是转型[J].中国工业经济,2016(9):24-40.
[15]吴延兵.国有企业双重效率损失研究[J].经济研究,2012(3):15-27.
[16]杜伟.人力资本、R&D投资对中国省域技术效率的影响研究[J].中国科技论坛,2013(6):128-134.
[2]GRILICHES Z. Research costs and social returns:hybrid corn and related innovations[J].Polit. Econ. 1958,1(66):419-431.
[3]SUN Y,WANG L,ZHU X. Modeling optimization and simulation of R&D investment decisions of high-tech enterprises under incomplete information[J].Systems engineering,2016,34(10):24-30.
[4]赵传仁,韩先锋,宋文飞.研发投资对企业技术进步影响的异质门槛效应[J].中国科技论坛,2016(9):85-89.
[5]SYVERSON C. What determines productivity[J].Journal of economic literature,2011,49(2):326-365.
[6]VANDENBUSSCHE J,AGHION P,MEGHIR C. Growth,distance to frontier and composition of human capital[J].Journal of economic growth,2006,11(2):97-127.
[7]顾婷婷,杨德才,刘丽.人力资本结构与企业技术创新的关系研究——基于技术系统演化的视角[J].技术经济与管理研究,2016(1):28-34.
[8]王利.企业创新驱动增长的测度与实证分析[J].统计研究,2015(8):62-68.
[9]周迪,钟绍军.创新价值链视角下区域创新水平分布动态及链间影响[J].中国科技论坛,2018(6):110-120.
[10]陈诗一.中国工业分行业统计数据估算:1980—2008[J].经济学(季刊),2011(3):735-776.
[11]肖兴志,谢理.中国战略性新兴产业创新效率的实证分析[J].经济管理,2011(11):26-35.
[12]程慧芳,陈超.开放经济下知识资本与全要素生产率[J].经济研究,2017(10):21-36.
[13]解维敏,唐清泉,陆姗姗.政府R&D资助,企业R&D支出与自主创新——来自中国上市公司的经验证据[J].金融研究,2009(6):86-99.
[14]戴翔,刘梦,任志成.劳动力演化如何影响中国工业发展:转移还是转型[J].中国工业经济,2016(9):24-40.
[15]吴延兵.国有企业双重效率损失研究[J].经济研究,2012(3):15-27.
[16]杜伟.人力资本、R&D投资对中国省域技术效率的影响研究[J].中国科技论坛,2013(6):128-134.