规划编制影响规划完成程度的定量分析
|
摘要
五年规划是中国最大的公共政策。规划编制会对规划完成程度产生影响吗?目前鲜有研究展开讨论。本研究拟实证检验规划编制与规划完成程度二者的关系,并进一步探讨规划文本质量和规划实施在二者关系中的中介作用与调节作用。研究发现:规划编制对规划完成程度有显著的正向影响关系。规划质量正向显著影响规划完成程度,而且规划质量在规划编制与规划完成程度间存在中介效应。规划实施过程的绩效评估在规划质量和规划完成程度的关系具有显著的正向调节作用。本研究的结论能够丰富规划编制、规划实施的研究成果,也能为政府如何提升规划完成程度提供实证证据。
The five-year plan is China's largest public policy. Does planning have an impact on the level of implementation? There is currently little research to discuss. This study intends to take Chongqing's "Twelfth Five-Year Plan" as an example, empirically test the relationship between planning and planning implementation level, and further explore the mediating role and adjustment role of planning text quality and planning implementation in the relationship between the two. The study found that planning has a significant positive impact on the level of implementation. The quality of planning is positively affecting the level of planning implementation, and the quality of planning has a mediating effect between planning and planning implementation. The performance evaluation of the planning implementation process has a significant positive adjustment effect on the relationship between planning quality and planning implementation level. The conclusions of this study can enrich the research results of planning, planning and implementation, and also provide empirical evidence for the government to improve the level of planning implementation.
The five-year plan is China's largest public policy. Does planning have an impact on the level of implementation? There is currently little research to discuss. This study intends to take Chongqing's "Twelfth Five-Year Plan" as an example, empirically test the relationship between planning and planning implementation level, and further explore the mediating role and adjustment role of planning text quality and planning implementation in the relationship between the two. The study found that planning has a significant positive impact on the level of implementation. The quality of planning is positively affecting the level of planning implementation, and the quality of planning has a mediating effect between planning and planning implementation. The performance evaluation of the planning implementation process has a significant positive adjustment effect on the relationship between planning quality and planning implementation level. The conclusions of this study can enrich the research results of planning, planning and implementation, and also provide empirical evidence for the government to improve the level of planning implementation.
引文
[1]王绍光,鄢一龙.中国民主决策模式:以五年规划制定为例[M].北京:中国人民大学出版社,2015:64,200.
[2]胡鞍钢,鄢一龙,吕捷.中国发展奇迹的重要手段——以五年计划转型为例(从“六五”到“十一五”)[J].清华大学学报(哲学社会科学版),2011,26(1):43-53.
[3] HEILMANN S,MELTON O.The reinvention of development planning in China,1993–2012 [J].Modern China,2013,39(6):581-628.
[4]鄢一龙,王绍光,胡鞍钢.中国中央政府决策模式演变——以五年计划编制为例[J].清华大学学报(哲学社会科学版),2013(3):114-122.
[5]王绍光,鄢一龙,胡鞍钢.中国中央政府“集思广益型”决策模式——国家“十二五”规划的出台[J].中国软科学,2014(6):1-16.
[6]陈泰锋,王亚华,鄢一龙.国家“十一五”规划纲要实施机制评估[J].经济研究参考,2009(50):39-44.
[7]鄢一龙,胡鞍钢.中国十一个五年计划实施情况回顾[J].清华大学学报(哲学社会科学版),2012(4):35-45.
[8]胡鞍钢,唐啸,鄢一龙.地方治理能力及绩效:各省区“十二五”规划完成情况(2011—2014)评估报告[R].国情报告,2017:256-263.
[9]杨永恒.发展规划:理论、方法和实践[M].北京:清华大学出版社,2012:55.
[10]鄢一龙.目标治理——看得见的五年规划之手[M].北京:中国人民大学出版社,2013:290.
[11] CHILD J.Organizational structure,environment and performance:The role of strategic choice [J].Sociology,1972,6(1):1-22.
[12] MEIER K J,O’TOOLE L J,BOYNE G A,et al.Strategic management and the performance of public organizations:testing venerable ideas against recent theory [J].Journal of Public Administration Research and Theory,2007(17):357-377.
[13] ELBANNA S.Strategic planning in the United Arab Emirates [J].International Journal of Commerce and Management,2010,20(1):26-40.
[14] NUTT P C,BACOFF R W.Organizational publicness and its implications for strategic management [J].Journal of Public Administration Research and Theory,1993,3(2),209-231.
[15]胡鞍钢,王亚华,鄢一龙.国家“十一五”规划纲要实施进展总体评价[J].经济研究参考,2009(50):2-9.
[16]张凤合.当前我国政策绩效的价值取向解读[J].公共管理学报,2007,4(1):110-119.
[17]孙施文.试析规划编制与规划实施管理的矛盾[J].规划师论坛,2001(3):5-8.
[18]陈一新,刘颖,秦俊武.深圳福田中心区(CBD)规划评估[M].北京:人民出版社,2017:79.
[19]陈丽君,郁建兴,张瑶琼.基于知晓度的政策绩效评价:以浙江省湖州市城乡统筹就业促进政策和服务为例[J].公共行政评论,2009(6):58-80.
[20]唐啸.正式与非正式激励:中国环境政策执行机制研究[M].北京:中国社会科学出版社,2016:154.
[21] JOYCE P.Strategy in the public sector:A guide to effective change management [M].New York,NY:John Wiley.2000.
[22]袁喜禄.市县规划体制及改革[M].// 杨伟民主编.发展规划的理论和实践.北京:清华大学出版社,2010:141.
[23]徐风华,王俊杰.“十一五”规划指标体系更新与地方政府绩效考核改进[J].中国工业经济,2006(7):5-12.
[24] FARD H D,MOSHABBAKI A,ABBASI T,et al.Strategic management in the public sector:reflections on it’s applicability to Iranian public organizations [J].Public Organization Review.2011(11):385–406.
[25] ELBANNA S.Strategic planning in the United Arab Emirates [J].International Journal of Commerce and Management,2010,20(1):26-40.
[26] POISTER T H,Van Slyke D M.Strategic management innovations in state transportation departments [J].Public Performance and Management Review,2002,26(1):58-74.
[27]胡鞍钢.中国特色的公共决策民主化——以制定“十二五”规划为例[J].清华大学学报(哲学社会科学版),2011(2):43-50.
[28]陈振明,林亚清.政府部门领导关系型行为影响下属变革型组织公民行为吗?——公共服务动机的中介作用和组织支持感的调节作用[J].公共管理学报,2016,13(1):15.
[29]温忠麟,侯杰泰,张雷.调节效应与中介效应的比较和应用[J].心理学报,2005(2):268-274.
[30]陈晓萍,徐淑英,樊景立.组织与管理研究的实证方法[M].北京:北大大学出版社,2012.
[31]陈升,刘泽,杨永恒.基层知识型公共政策决策机制理论建构——基于B县“十三五”规划编制的案例研究[J].公共管理学报,2018,15(3):1-15.
(1)以“十一五”规划纲要的第三项目标“资源利用效率显著提高”为例,这一目标分解为四个子目标:单位国内生产总值能源消耗降低20%左右,单位工业增加值用水量降低30%,农业灌溉用水有效利用系数提高到0.5,工业固体废物综合利用率提高到60%。针对这些目标,提出了建设发展循环经济,建设资源节约型社会的任务,并分为节约能源、节约用水、节约土地、节约材料、加强资源综合利用等分项任务。
[2]胡鞍钢,鄢一龙,吕捷.中国发展奇迹的重要手段——以五年计划转型为例(从“六五”到“十一五”)[J].清华大学学报(哲学社会科学版),2011,26(1):43-53.
[3] HEILMANN S,MELTON O.The reinvention of development planning in China,1993–2012 [J].Modern China,2013,39(6):581-628.
[4]鄢一龙,王绍光,胡鞍钢.中国中央政府决策模式演变——以五年计划编制为例[J].清华大学学报(哲学社会科学版),2013(3):114-122.
[5]王绍光,鄢一龙,胡鞍钢.中国中央政府“集思广益型”决策模式——国家“十二五”规划的出台[J].中国软科学,2014(6):1-16.
[6]陈泰锋,王亚华,鄢一龙.国家“十一五”规划纲要实施机制评估[J].经济研究参考,2009(50):39-44.
[7]鄢一龙,胡鞍钢.中国十一个五年计划实施情况回顾[J].清华大学学报(哲学社会科学版),2012(4):35-45.
[8]胡鞍钢,唐啸,鄢一龙.地方治理能力及绩效:各省区“十二五”规划完成情况(2011—2014)评估报告[R].国情报告,2017:256-263.
[9]杨永恒.发展规划:理论、方法和实践[M].北京:清华大学出版社,2012:55.
[10]鄢一龙.目标治理——看得见的五年规划之手[M].北京:中国人民大学出版社,2013:290.
[11] CHILD J.Organizational structure,environment and performance:The role of strategic choice [J].Sociology,1972,6(1):1-22.
[12] MEIER K J,O’TOOLE L J,BOYNE G A,et al.Strategic management and the performance of public organizations:testing venerable ideas against recent theory [J].Journal of Public Administration Research and Theory,2007(17):357-377.
[13] ELBANNA S.Strategic planning in the United Arab Emirates [J].International Journal of Commerce and Management,2010,20(1):26-40.
[14] NUTT P C,BACOFF R W.Organizational publicness and its implications for strategic management [J].Journal of Public Administration Research and Theory,1993,3(2),209-231.
[15]胡鞍钢,王亚华,鄢一龙.国家“十一五”规划纲要实施进展总体评价[J].经济研究参考,2009(50):2-9.
[16]张凤合.当前我国政策绩效的价值取向解读[J].公共管理学报,2007,4(1):110-119.
[17]孙施文.试析规划编制与规划实施管理的矛盾[J].规划师论坛,2001(3):5-8.
[18]陈一新,刘颖,秦俊武.深圳福田中心区(CBD)规划评估[M].北京:人民出版社,2017:79.
[19]陈丽君,郁建兴,张瑶琼.基于知晓度的政策绩效评价:以浙江省湖州市城乡统筹就业促进政策和服务为例[J].公共行政评论,2009(6):58-80.
[20]唐啸.正式与非正式激励:中国环境政策执行机制研究[M].北京:中国社会科学出版社,2016:154.
[21] JOYCE P.Strategy in the public sector:A guide to effective change management [M].New York,NY:John Wiley.2000.
[22]袁喜禄.市县规划体制及改革[M].// 杨伟民主编.发展规划的理论和实践.北京:清华大学出版社,2010:141.
[23]徐风华,王俊杰.“十一五”规划指标体系更新与地方政府绩效考核改进[J].中国工业经济,2006(7):5-12.
[24] FARD H D,MOSHABBAKI A,ABBASI T,et al.Strategic management in the public sector:reflections on it’s applicability to Iranian public organizations [J].Public Organization Review.2011(11):385–406.
[25] ELBANNA S.Strategic planning in the United Arab Emirates [J].International Journal of Commerce and Management,2010,20(1):26-40.
[26] POISTER T H,Van Slyke D M.Strategic management innovations in state transportation departments [J].Public Performance and Management Review,2002,26(1):58-74.
[27]胡鞍钢.中国特色的公共决策民主化——以制定“十二五”规划为例[J].清华大学学报(哲学社会科学版),2011(2):43-50.
[28]陈振明,林亚清.政府部门领导关系型行为影响下属变革型组织公民行为吗?——公共服务动机的中介作用和组织支持感的调节作用[J].公共管理学报,2016,13(1):15.
[29]温忠麟,侯杰泰,张雷.调节效应与中介效应的比较和应用[J].心理学报,2005(2):268-274.
[30]陈晓萍,徐淑英,樊景立.组织与管理研究的实证方法[M].北京:北大大学出版社,2012.
[31]陈升,刘泽,杨永恒.基层知识型公共政策决策机制理论建构——基于B县“十三五”规划编制的案例研究[J].公共管理学报,2018,15(3):1-15.
(1)以“十一五”规划纲要的第三项目标“资源利用效率显著提高”为例,这一目标分解为四个子目标:单位国内生产总值能源消耗降低20%左右,单位工业增加值用水量降低30%,农业灌溉用水有效利用系数提高到0.5,工业固体废物综合利用率提高到60%。针对这些目标,提出了建设发展循环经济,建设资源节约型社会的任务,并分为节约能源、节约用水、节约土地、节约材料、加强资源综合利用等分项任务。