基于交通灯方法的小黄鱼资源承载力诊断与评价
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摘要
交通灯方法是用来诊断并评价渔业种群的资源现状和风险水平的技术程序,有助于资源管理和养护。本文介绍了交通灯方法的构建过程,应用模糊逻辑处理阈值和观测值的不确定性问题,将交通灯中的红灯、黄灯和绿灯定义为超载、临界超载和可载。以2000年~2015年东海小黄鱼种群为示例对象,从表征资源禀赋的丰度和生产力两个属性特征进行分析,探讨了小黄鱼种群补充量、亲体量和开捕期资源丰度的年际变化和承载状态,并集成为复合交通灯体系,以红灯比例超过30%为"严重"强度划分标准。各指标分析结果表明,2005年和2011年,补充量的红灯比例超过30%,呈严重超载状态;亲体量严重超载年份为2002年、2003年和2012年;开捕期资源丰度严重超载年份为2002~2004、2006年。对各指标评价结果集成为复合交通灯,12个年份存在超载状态,2002年~2004年、2006年为严重超载;9个年份出现可载状态;临界超载在各年份均有出现,且占据主导地位,变化幅度在29.14%~91.56%。本文分析方法和结果可以丰富渔业资源承载力评价体系,并为渔业资源管理提供理论参考。
The traffic light approach as a technical procedure was first developed for evaluating the status and level of risk faced by a fish population. It has also facilitated stock management and conservation. This paper introduced the construction procedure of traffic light approach,and applied fuzzy logic to deal with the uncertainty of boundaries and observation values. Red,yellow and green lights in traffic lights were defined as overload,critical overload and loadable respectively. Taking the stock of small yellow croaker from 2000 ~ 2015 in East China Sea as an example,the inter-annual variation and carrying state of small yellow croaker were explored in terms of the characteristics of abundance and productivity,and these indicators were integrated into traffic light system,more than 30% red within one year was classified as the serious overload. The results showed that the serious overload years for recruitment was in 2005 and2011,for spawning stock was in 2002,2003 and 2012,and for the abundance at the beginning season was in 2002 ~2004 and 2006. According to the integrated traffic light index,there were 12 years existed overload states during 2000~ 2015,and the years which had serious overload states was 2002,2003,2004 and 2006. Loadable states had occurredin 9 years; Critical overload state was the dominant state which had appeared in every year,and the proportion in every year ranged from 29. 14% to 91. 56%. The analysis method and results can enrich the evaluation system of fishery resources carrying capacity and provide theoretical reference for fishery resources management.
The traffic light approach as a technical procedure was first developed for evaluating the status and level of risk faced by a fish population. It has also facilitated stock management and conservation. This paper introduced the construction procedure of traffic light approach,and applied fuzzy logic to deal with the uncertainty of boundaries and observation values. Red,yellow and green lights in traffic lights were defined as overload,critical overload and loadable respectively. Taking the stock of small yellow croaker from 2000 ~ 2015 in East China Sea as an example,the inter-annual variation and carrying state of small yellow croaker were explored in terms of the characteristics of abundance and productivity,and these indicators were integrated into traffic light system,more than 30% red within one year was classified as the serious overload. The results showed that the serious overload years for recruitment was in 2005 and2011,for spawning stock was in 2002,2003 and 2012,and for the abundance at the beginning season was in 2002 ~2004 and 2006. According to the integrated traffic light index,there were 12 years existed overload states during 2000~ 2015,and the years which had serious overload states was 2002,2003,2004 and 2006. Loadable states had occurredin 9 years; Critical overload state was the dominant state which had appeared in every year,and the proportion in every year ranged from 29. 14% to 91. 56%. The analysis method and results can enrich the evaluation system of fishery resources carrying capacity and provide theoretical reference for fishery resources management.
引文
[1]关道明,张志锋,杨正先,等.海洋资源环境承载能力理论与测度方法的探索[J].中国科学院院刊,2016,31(9):1241-1247.
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[3]刘述锡,崔金元.长山群岛海域生物资源承载力评价指标体系研究[J].中国渔业经济,2010,28(2):86-91.
[4]宋亚洲,韩宝平,朱国平,等.基于生态足迹的江苏省渔业资源可持续利用评价[J].水生态学杂志,2010,3(2):17-22.
[5]王子超,晁敏.基于Stella的江苏近海海域生态足迹模拟分析[J].中国水产科学,2017,24(3):576-586.
[6]靳超,周劲风,李耀初,等.基于系统动力学的海洋生态承载力研究——以惠州市为例[J].海洋环境科学,2017,36(4):537-543.
[7]任光超.我国海洋资源承载力评价研究[D].上海:上海海洋大学,2011.
[8]刘锦怡,陈斯典,江天久.海洋生态环境承载力研究——以深圳东部海域为例[J].海洋环境科学,2017,36(4):560-565.
[9]刘雅玲,罗雅谦,张文静,等.基于压力—状态—响应模型的城市水资源承载力评价指标体系构建研究[J].环境污染与防治,2016,38(5):100-104.
[10]霍军.近海渔业资源承载力的特征及评估指标体系初探[C]∥中国海洋论坛组委会.中国海洋论坛论文集.青岛:中国海洋大学出版社,2009:251-258.
[11]杨洋,刘志国,何彦龙,等.基于非平衡产量模型的海洋渔业资源承载力评估-以浙江省为例[J].海洋环境科学,2016,35(4):534-539.
[12]CADDY J F.Deciding on precautionary management measures for a stock based on a suite of limit reference points(LRPs)as a basis for a multi-LRP harvest law[J].NAFO Scientific.Council.Studies,1999(32):55-68.
[13]CADDY J F.A short review of precautionary reference points and some proposals for their use in data-poor situations[R].FAO Fish.Tech.Pap.No.379,Rome:FAO,1998.
[14]HALLIDAY R G,FANNING L P,MOHN R K.Use of the traffic light method in fishery management planning[R].Qttawa:Canadian Science Advisory Secretariat,2001.
[15]CADDY J F.The traffic light procedure for decision making:its rapid extension from fisheries to other sectors of the economy[J].Global Journal of Science Frontier Research I Marine Science,2015,15(1):11-39.
[16]杨正先,张志锋,韩建波,等.海洋资源环境承载能力超载阈值确定方法探讨[J].地理科学进展,2017,36(3):313-319.
[17]陈思行.“预防性参考点”及其在渔业养护和管理上的应用[J].中国渔业经济,1999,(1):29-31.
[18]韩京成,黄应平,袁喜,等.基于模糊逻辑的裂腹鱼幼鱼生境适宜度指数分析[J].人民长江,2011,42(3):65-68,78.
[19]农牧渔业部水产局.农牧渔业局东海区渔业指挥部.东海区渔业资源调查和区划[M].上海:华东师范大学出版社,1987.
[20]徐兆礼,陈佳杰.再议中国近海小黄鱼种群的划分问题[J].应用生态学报,2010,21(11):2856-2864.
[21]刘尊雷,袁兴伟,杨林林,等.亲体量和环境对东海小黄鱼补充成功率的影响[J].应用生态学报,2015,26(2):588-600.
[22]CADDY J F.Current usage of fisheries indicators and reference points,and their potential application to management of fisheries for marine invertebrates[J].Canadian Journal Fisheries and Aquatic.Sciences,2004,61(8):1307-1324.
(1)The Magnuson-Stevens Fishery Conservation and Management Act(16 U.S.C.1801-1891(d))(2014)
[2]韩增林,狄乾斌,刘锴.海域承载力的理论与评价方法[J].地域研究与开发,2006,25(1):1-5.
[3]刘述锡,崔金元.长山群岛海域生物资源承载力评价指标体系研究[J].中国渔业经济,2010,28(2):86-91.
[4]宋亚洲,韩宝平,朱国平,等.基于生态足迹的江苏省渔业资源可持续利用评价[J].水生态学杂志,2010,3(2):17-22.
[5]王子超,晁敏.基于Stella的江苏近海海域生态足迹模拟分析[J].中国水产科学,2017,24(3):576-586.
[6]靳超,周劲风,李耀初,等.基于系统动力学的海洋生态承载力研究——以惠州市为例[J].海洋环境科学,2017,36(4):537-543.
[7]任光超.我国海洋资源承载力评价研究[D].上海:上海海洋大学,2011.
[8]刘锦怡,陈斯典,江天久.海洋生态环境承载力研究——以深圳东部海域为例[J].海洋环境科学,2017,36(4):560-565.
[9]刘雅玲,罗雅谦,张文静,等.基于压力—状态—响应模型的城市水资源承载力评价指标体系构建研究[J].环境污染与防治,2016,38(5):100-104.
[10]霍军.近海渔业资源承载力的特征及评估指标体系初探[C]∥中国海洋论坛组委会.中国海洋论坛论文集.青岛:中国海洋大学出版社,2009:251-258.
[11]杨洋,刘志国,何彦龙,等.基于非平衡产量模型的海洋渔业资源承载力评估-以浙江省为例[J].海洋环境科学,2016,35(4):534-539.
[12]CADDY J F.Deciding on precautionary management measures for a stock based on a suite of limit reference points(LRPs)as a basis for a multi-LRP harvest law[J].NAFO Scientific.Council.Studies,1999(32):55-68.
[13]CADDY J F.A short review of precautionary reference points and some proposals for their use in data-poor situations[R].FAO Fish.Tech.Pap.No.379,Rome:FAO,1998.
[14]HALLIDAY R G,FANNING L P,MOHN R K.Use of the traffic light method in fishery management planning[R].Qttawa:Canadian Science Advisory Secretariat,2001.
[15]CADDY J F.The traffic light procedure for decision making:its rapid extension from fisheries to other sectors of the economy[J].Global Journal of Science Frontier Research I Marine Science,2015,15(1):11-39.
[16]杨正先,张志锋,韩建波,等.海洋资源环境承载能力超载阈值确定方法探讨[J].地理科学进展,2017,36(3):313-319.
[17]陈思行.“预防性参考点”及其在渔业养护和管理上的应用[J].中国渔业经济,1999,(1):29-31.
[18]韩京成,黄应平,袁喜,等.基于模糊逻辑的裂腹鱼幼鱼生境适宜度指数分析[J].人民长江,2011,42(3):65-68,78.
[19]农牧渔业部水产局.农牧渔业局东海区渔业指挥部.东海区渔业资源调查和区划[M].上海:华东师范大学出版社,1987.
[20]徐兆礼,陈佳杰.再议中国近海小黄鱼种群的划分问题[J].应用生态学报,2010,21(11):2856-2864.
[21]刘尊雷,袁兴伟,杨林林,等.亲体量和环境对东海小黄鱼补充成功率的影响[J].应用生态学报,2015,26(2):588-600.
[22]CADDY J F.Current usage of fisheries indicators and reference points,and their potential application to management of fisheries for marine invertebrates[J].Canadian Journal Fisheries and Aquatic.Sciences,2004,61(8):1307-1324.
(1)The Magnuson-Stevens Fishery Conservation and Management Act(16 U.S.C.1801-1891(d))(2014)