中国杂交水稻向撒哈拉以南非洲转移的影响模拟——基于全球局部均衡模型
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摘要
利用国际农产品贸易政策分析模型,设定撒哈拉以南非洲11个主要水稻生产国家在2020—2040年采纳中国杂交水稻的两种模拟情景,第一种情景为仅在灌溉区采纳,第二种情景为灌溉区和雨养区同时采纳,两种情景的最大采纳率分别为5%、20%和50%,以考察非洲国家推广中国杂交水稻的影响。结果显示,当在11国灌溉区推广杂交稻的情境下,11个国家的水稻平均单产和收获面积都有所增加,塞拉利昂、马里和几内亚将在2030年实现水稻净出口;若主要水稻生产国能够加强农田水利灌溉建设,在雨养区推广中国杂交水稻,则在20%和50%的最大采纳率情况下,撒哈拉以南非洲将分别在2036和2030年实现水稻净出口。因此,撒哈拉以南非洲具有很大的水稻生产潜力,但能否实现取决于良种的采纳率和水利设施的建设和完善。对此,可将发展杂交水稻作为中非农业合作领域的重点,不仅为稳定全球粮食安全做出贡献,还能一定程度上满足中国的水稻需求。
Based on the actual yield data collected from the experimental centers, it is assumed that 11 major riceproducing countries of SSA will adopt Chinese hybrid rice varieties by 5%, 20% and 50%, respectively, from 2020 to2040. This paper analyzes the global and regional impacts of three scenarios, using International Model for Policy Analysis of Agricultural Commodities and Trade(IMPACT) developed by the International Food Policy Research Institute(IFPRI). It sets 2 scenarios: adopting hybrid rice in irrigated area, adopting it both in irrigated and rain-fed areas.The model predicts that the adoption of Chinese hybrid rice in SSA will increase the average rice yield and harvested rice area in these countries. Sierra Leone, Mali and Guinea will be able to achieve self-sufficiency by 2030. If the irrigation and water conservancy construction can be strengthened in SSA, and hybrid rice could be planted in the rain-fed areas,when the max adoption rates are 20% and 50%, SSA will become net exporters of rice in 2036 and 2030, respectively. So sub-Saharan Africa countries have a huge potential for rice production, and the fulfilling of it depends on the adoption rate of improved seeds and the irrigation construction. Therefore, the development of hybrid rice in Africa could be the focus of China-Africa agricultural collaboration. It will not only contribute to global food security, but also meet the need for rice in China to some extent.
Based on the actual yield data collected from the experimental centers, it is assumed that 11 major riceproducing countries of SSA will adopt Chinese hybrid rice varieties by 5%, 20% and 50%, respectively, from 2020 to2040. This paper analyzes the global and regional impacts of three scenarios, using International Model for Policy Analysis of Agricultural Commodities and Trade(IMPACT) developed by the International Food Policy Research Institute(IFPRI). It sets 2 scenarios: adopting hybrid rice in irrigated area, adopting it both in irrigated and rain-fed areas.The model predicts that the adoption of Chinese hybrid rice in SSA will increase the average rice yield and harvested rice area in these countries. Sierra Leone, Mali and Guinea will be able to achieve self-sufficiency by 2030. If the irrigation and water conservancy construction can be strengthened in SSA, and hybrid rice could be planted in the rain-fed areas,when the max adoption rates are 20% and 50%, SSA will become net exporters of rice in 2036 and 2030, respectively. So sub-Saharan Africa countries have a huge potential for rice production, and the fulfilling of it depends on the adoption rate of improved seeds and the irrigation construction. Therefore, the development of hybrid rice in Africa could be the focus of China-Africa agricultural collaboration. It will not only contribute to global food security, but also meet the need for rice in China to some extent.
引文
[1]Seck P A,Diagne A,Mohanty S,Wopereis M C S.Crop that feeds the world:rice[J].Food Security,2012,4(1):7-24.
[2]Chaudhary Ram C,Dat Van Tran.Can Africa be the future Rice bowl for Asia?[C]//Proceedings of the 4th Asian International Rice Conference,Cebu,the Philippines.1999:p29.
[3]徐炼德.水稻在非洲种植的方法探讨[J].中国农业信息,2015(9):25-26.
[4]Evenson R E,Gollin D.Assessing the impact of the Green Revolution,1960 to 2000[J].Science,2003,300(5 620):758-762.
[5]Abebe G,Alemu A.Role of improved seeds towards improving livelihood and food security at Ethiopia[J].International Jour‐nal of Research,2017,5(2):.
[6]Miah M A H,Sarma N P.Hybrid rice:progress,issues and outlook for Bangladesh[J].International Rice Commission News‐letter,2000(49):65-72.
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[9]李晏军.袁隆平成功之路回眸--解读“杂交水稻之父”的科学贡献、科学方法与科学精神[D].南宁:广西大学,2004.
[10]Smith J A,Todd P E.Does matching overcome Lalonde’s critique of non-experimental estimators?[J].Journal of Econo‐metrics,2005,125(1-2):305-353.
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[12]Renkow M,Byerlee D.The impacts of CGIAR research:a review of recent evidence[J].Food Policy,2010,35(5):391-402.
[13]Raitzer D A,Sparks A H,Huelgas Z,et al.Is rice improvement still making a difference?[C]//Assessing the economic,pover‐ty and food security impacts of rice varieties released from1989 to 2009 in Bangladesh,Indonesia and the Philippines.2015.
[14]Huang J,Hu R,Van Meiji H,van Tongeren F.Economic impacts of genetically modified crops in China[C]//In 25th Inter‐national Conference of Agricultural Economists Durban,South Africa,2003.
[15]Robinson S,Mason-D'Croz D,Sulser T,et al.The international model for policy analysis of agricultural commodities and trade(IMPACT):model description for version 3[R].IFPRIDiscussion Paper,2015.
[16]Ignaciuk A,D'Croz D,Islam S.Better drip than flood:reaping the benefits of efficient irrigation[J].Eurochoices,2015,14(2):26-32.
[17]Islam S,Cenacchi N,Sulser T B,et al.Structural approaches to modeling the impact of climate change and adaptation tech‐nologies on crop yields and food security[J].Global Food Se‐curity,2016,10:63-70.
[18]Diagne A,Amovin-Assagba E,Futakuchi K,et al.Developing competitive rice value chains[C]//Realizing Africa’s Rice Promise,CABI.2013.
[19]Cassman K G,Gassini P.Can there be a green revolution in sub-Saharan Africa without large expansion of irrigated crop production?[J].Global Food Security,2013,2(3):203-209.
[20]Seck P A,TouréA A,Coulibaly J Y,et al.Africa’s rice economy before and after the 2008 rice crisis[J].Realizing Africa’s rice promise,2013:24-34.
[21]Robinson S,Mason-D'Croz D,Islam S,et al.Climate change adaptation in agriculture:Ex ante analysis of promising and al‐ternative crop technologies using DSSAT and IMPACT[R].IFPRI Discussion Papers,2015.
[22]Diagne A,Kinkingninhounmedagbe F M,Amovinassagba E.Evaluating the key aspects of the performance of genetic im‐provement in priority food crops and countries in sub-Saharan Africa:the case of rice[C]//Crop Improvement,Adoption and Impact of Improved Varieties in Food Crops in sub-Saharan Af‐rica,2015.
[23]Spielman D J,Kolady D,Ward P,et al.Public Expenditure,Private Incentives and Technology Adoption:The Economics of Hybrid Rice in South Asia.Environment and Production Technology Division[R].IFPRI Discussion Papers,2012.
[24]刘荣华,王刚.中国水稻品种在刚果(金)的比较试验[J].种子科技,2017,35(11):118-120.
[25]彭既明.中国杂交水稻在几内亚的试验初报[J].杂交水稻,2003(5):63-65.
[26]张军,陈顺全,张文庆,等.中国杂交水稻在喀麦隆引进种植的表现[J].杂交水稻,2017,32(5):78-80.
[27]张建华,姜守全,谭旭生,等.利比里亚发展杂交水稻存在的问题与对策[J].杂交水稻,2011,26(3):82-83,91.
[28]杨耀松,方志辉,邓小林,等.中国杂交水稻在马达加斯加的试验示范[J].杂交水稻,2015,30(4):79-83.
[29]邓竹清,邓小林.中国杂交水稻在马达加斯加种植的初步表现[J].杂交水稻,2010,25(2):78-79.
[30]谢特立,孔祥明,彭伟正.7个中国杂交水稻品种马里试验初报[J].福建农业科技,2010(3):1-2.
[31]叶永印,Ibrahim,范辉.尼日利亚引种中国杂交水稻筛选试验[J].中国种业,2008(7):35-36.
[32]赵利华,陈德富.中国杂交水稻在塞拉利昂试验示范种植表现[J].杂交水稻,2007,22(6):74-77.
[33]严志,申广勒,张从合,等.中国杂交水稻在坦桑尼亚的试种研究[J].园艺与种苗,2015(6):36-39.
[34]卢远华.乌干达水稻产业发展现状及改进建议[J].四川农业与农机,2015(4):20-21.
[35]梁遂权,李耀志,郑政,等.中国杂交水稻在乍得的种植表现及发展建议[J].湖北农业科学,2017,56(8):1 422-1 426.
[36]Peng S B,Tang Q Y,Zou Y B.Current status and challenges of rice production in China[J].Plant Production Science,2009,12(1):3-8.
[37]刘保花,陈新平,崔振岭,等.三大粮食作物产量潜力与产量差研究进展[J].中国生态农业学报,2015,23(5):525-534.
(1)援自非洲水稻中心前主任根Papa Seck,http://africarice.blogspot.com/2012/06/sub-saharan-africa-can-play-vital-role.html。
(2)据USDA数据库计算得来。
[2]Chaudhary Ram C,Dat Van Tran.Can Africa be the future Rice bowl for Asia?[C]//Proceedings of the 4th Asian International Rice Conference,Cebu,the Philippines.1999:p29.
[3]徐炼德.水稻在非洲种植的方法探讨[J].中国农业信息,2015(9):25-26.
[4]Evenson R E,Gollin D.Assessing the impact of the Green Revolution,1960 to 2000[J].Science,2003,300(5 620):758-762.
[5]Abebe G,Alemu A.Role of improved seeds towards improving livelihood and food security at Ethiopia[J].International Jour‐nal of Research,2017,5(2):.
[6]Miah M A H,Sarma N P.Hybrid rice:progress,issues and outlook for Bangladesh[J].International Rice Commission News‐letter,2000(49):65-72.
[7]Husain A M M,Hossain M,Janaiah A.Hybrid rice adoption in Bangladesh:A socioeconomic assessment of farmers’experienc‐es[C].Research and Evaluation Division,BRAC,Dhaka.2001.
[8]Azad M A S,Mustafi B A A,Hossain M.Hybrid rice:economic assessment of a promising technology for sustainable food grain production in Bangladesh,No.419-2016-26564.2008.
[9]李晏军.袁隆平成功之路回眸--解读“杂交水稻之父”的科学贡献、科学方法与科学精神[D].南宁:广西大学,2004.
[10]Smith J A,Todd P E.Does matching overcome Lalonde’s critique of non-experimental estimators?[J].Journal of Econo‐metrics,2005,125(1-2):305-353.
[11]De Janvry A,Dustan A,Sadoulet E.Recent advances in impact analysis methods for ex-post impact assessments of agricultur‐al technology:options for the CGIAR[R].Unpublished work‐ing paper,University of California-Berkeley,2010.
[12]Renkow M,Byerlee D.The impacts of CGIAR research:a review of recent evidence[J].Food Policy,2010,35(5):391-402.
[13]Raitzer D A,Sparks A H,Huelgas Z,et al.Is rice improvement still making a difference?[C]//Assessing the economic,pover‐ty and food security impacts of rice varieties released from1989 to 2009 in Bangladesh,Indonesia and the Philippines.2015.
[14]Huang J,Hu R,Van Meiji H,van Tongeren F.Economic impacts of genetically modified crops in China[C]//In 25th Inter‐national Conference of Agricultural Economists Durban,South Africa,2003.
[15]Robinson S,Mason-D'Croz D,Sulser T,et al.The international model for policy analysis of agricultural commodities and trade(IMPACT):model description for version 3[R].IFPRIDiscussion Paper,2015.
[16]Ignaciuk A,D'Croz D,Islam S.Better drip than flood:reaping the benefits of efficient irrigation[J].Eurochoices,2015,14(2):26-32.
[17]Islam S,Cenacchi N,Sulser T B,et al.Structural approaches to modeling the impact of climate change and adaptation tech‐nologies on crop yields and food security[J].Global Food Se‐curity,2016,10:63-70.
[18]Diagne A,Amovin-Assagba E,Futakuchi K,et al.Developing competitive rice value chains[C]//Realizing Africa’s Rice Promise,CABI.2013.
[19]Cassman K G,Gassini P.Can there be a green revolution in sub-Saharan Africa without large expansion of irrigated crop production?[J].Global Food Security,2013,2(3):203-209.
[20]Seck P A,TouréA A,Coulibaly J Y,et al.Africa’s rice economy before and after the 2008 rice crisis[J].Realizing Africa’s rice promise,2013:24-34.
[21]Robinson S,Mason-D'Croz D,Islam S,et al.Climate change adaptation in agriculture:Ex ante analysis of promising and al‐ternative crop technologies using DSSAT and IMPACT[R].IFPRI Discussion Papers,2015.
[22]Diagne A,Kinkingninhounmedagbe F M,Amovinassagba E.Evaluating the key aspects of the performance of genetic im‐provement in priority food crops and countries in sub-Saharan Africa:the case of rice[C]//Crop Improvement,Adoption and Impact of Improved Varieties in Food Crops in sub-Saharan Af‐rica,2015.
[23]Spielman D J,Kolady D,Ward P,et al.Public Expenditure,Private Incentives and Technology Adoption:The Economics of Hybrid Rice in South Asia.Environment and Production Technology Division[R].IFPRI Discussion Papers,2012.
[24]刘荣华,王刚.中国水稻品种在刚果(金)的比较试验[J].种子科技,2017,35(11):118-120.
[25]彭既明.中国杂交水稻在几内亚的试验初报[J].杂交水稻,2003(5):63-65.
[26]张军,陈顺全,张文庆,等.中国杂交水稻在喀麦隆引进种植的表现[J].杂交水稻,2017,32(5):78-80.
[27]张建华,姜守全,谭旭生,等.利比里亚发展杂交水稻存在的问题与对策[J].杂交水稻,2011,26(3):82-83,91.
[28]杨耀松,方志辉,邓小林,等.中国杂交水稻在马达加斯加的试验示范[J].杂交水稻,2015,30(4):79-83.
[29]邓竹清,邓小林.中国杂交水稻在马达加斯加种植的初步表现[J].杂交水稻,2010,25(2):78-79.
[30]谢特立,孔祥明,彭伟正.7个中国杂交水稻品种马里试验初报[J].福建农业科技,2010(3):1-2.
[31]叶永印,Ibrahim,范辉.尼日利亚引种中国杂交水稻筛选试验[J].中国种业,2008(7):35-36.
[32]赵利华,陈德富.中国杂交水稻在塞拉利昂试验示范种植表现[J].杂交水稻,2007,22(6):74-77.
[33]严志,申广勒,张从合,等.中国杂交水稻在坦桑尼亚的试种研究[J].园艺与种苗,2015(6):36-39.
[34]卢远华.乌干达水稻产业发展现状及改进建议[J].四川农业与农机,2015(4):20-21.
[35]梁遂权,李耀志,郑政,等.中国杂交水稻在乍得的种植表现及发展建议[J].湖北农业科学,2017,56(8):1 422-1 426.
[36]Peng S B,Tang Q Y,Zou Y B.Current status and challenges of rice production in China[J].Plant Production Science,2009,12(1):3-8.
[37]刘保花,陈新平,崔振岭,等.三大粮食作物产量潜力与产量差研究进展[J].中国生态农业学报,2015,23(5):525-534.
(1)援自非洲水稻中心前主任根Papa Seck,http://africarice.blogspot.com/2012/06/sub-saharan-africa-can-play-vital-role.html。
(2)据USDA数据库计算得来。