基于气候系统模式FGOALS-g2的热带气旋活动及其影响的动力降尺度模拟
|
摘要
热带气旋是气候模拟关注的重要对象,但是,由于当前的气候系统模式分辨率较低,难以合理再现热带气旋分布特征,因此,动力降尺度就成为一种有效的手段。本文使用区域气候模式Reg CM3,对中国科学院大气物理研究所气候系统模式FGOALS-g2的模拟结果进行动力降尺度,基于热带气旋路径追踪法,从热带气旋的路径、强度和降水三个方面,检验了动力降尺度在热带气旋模拟能力上的增值。结果表明,动力降尺度结果大幅提升了热带气旋路径频率的模拟,较之全球模式,其与观测的路径频率分布的空间相关系数从0.57提升至0.74;区域模式模拟的热带气旋强度与观测更为一致,全球模式难以模拟40 m s-1以上风速的热带气旋,区域模式能够模拟风速为60 m s-1的热带气旋;在热带气旋降水方面,降尺度后的热带气旋降水贡献率和平均热带气旋降水强度均有所改善,在西北太平洋区域较之全球模式,区域模式将热带气旋降水贡献率和降水强度提高了10%和4.7 mm d-1。动力降尺度后TC(tropical cyclone)的模拟技巧得到提升的区域为西北太平洋区域,但在中国南海区域,技巧提升的不显著甚至有所下降。关于动力降尺度结果在西北太平洋区域的技巧提升,分析表明能够更好体现CISK(Conditional Instability of the Second Kind)机制是主要原因,区域模式模拟的水汽增多、正涡度增强、上升运动增强而垂直风切变减弱都有显著贡献。
Tropical cyclone(TC) plays an important role in climate research. However, due to the relatively low model resolution, there remain challenges in simulating the distribution of TC by using global climate models. Dynamical downscaling has been a useful tool for TC research. In this paper, a regional climate model Reg CM3 was used to dynamically downscale the historical TC simulation of FGOALS-g2(grid-point version 2 of Flexible Global Ocean– Atmosphere–Land System model), a global climate system model developed by LASG/IAP. A tropical cyclone track detection method was applied to reveal the added value of dynamical downscaling in simulating track distribution, intensity and rainfall of TCs. The result of dynamical downscaling shows distinct improvements in simulating the TC distribution, intensity and associated rainfall. The pattern correlation coefficient of TC track distribution is improved from 0.53 to 0.74 by the regional model. The underestimated TC intensity from FGOALS-g2 simulation is enhanced in Reg CM3(Version 3 of the Regional Climate Model) by 20 m s-1. In addition, the total rainfall contribution and intensity are enhanced by 10% and 4.7 mm d-1 in Reg CM3 compared to that in the global model over the western North Pacific region. In addition to the influence of increasing model resolution, large-scale variables such as increased moisture, enhanced relative vorticity and ascending motion, and weakened vertical wind shear are responsible for the improvements of TC simulating skill in Reg CM3 as a result of better reproduction of CISK(Conditional Instability of the Second Kind) mechanism.
Tropical cyclone(TC) plays an important role in climate research. However, due to the relatively low model resolution, there remain challenges in simulating the distribution of TC by using global climate models. Dynamical downscaling has been a useful tool for TC research. In this paper, a regional climate model Reg CM3 was used to dynamically downscale the historical TC simulation of FGOALS-g2(grid-point version 2 of Flexible Global Ocean– Atmosphere–Land System model), a global climate system model developed by LASG/IAP. A tropical cyclone track detection method was applied to reveal the added value of dynamical downscaling in simulating track distribution, intensity and rainfall of TCs. The result of dynamical downscaling shows distinct improvements in simulating the TC distribution, intensity and associated rainfall. The pattern correlation coefficient of TC track distribution is improved from 0.53 to 0.74 by the regional model. The underestimated TC intensity from FGOALS-g2 simulation is enhanced in Reg CM3(Version 3 of the Regional Climate Model) by 20 m s-1. In addition, the total rainfall contribution and intensity are enhanced by 10% and 4.7 mm d-1 in Reg CM3 compared to that in the global model over the western North Pacific region. In addition to the influence of increasing model resolution, large-scale variables such as increased moisture, enhanced relative vorticity and ascending motion, and weakened vertical wind shear are responsible for the improvements of TC simulating skill in Reg CM3 as a result of better reproduction of CISK(Conditional Instability of the Second Kind) mechanism.
引文
Adler R F,Huffman G J,Chang A,et al.2003.The version-2 global precipitation climatology project(GPCP)monthly precipitation analysis(1979-present)[J].J.Hydrometeorol.,4(6):1147-1167,doi:10.1175/1525-7541(2003)004<1147:TVGPCP>2.0.CO;2.
Bender M A,Knutson T R,Tuleya R E,et al.2010.Modeled impact of anthropogenic warming on the frequency of intense Atlantic hurricanes[J].Science,327(5964):454-458,doi:10.1126/science.1180568.
Bengtsson L,Botzet M,Esch M.1995.Hurricane-type vortices in a general circulation model[J].Tellus A,47(2):175-196,doi:10.3402/tellusa.v47i2.11500.
丛春华,陈联寿,雷小途,等.2011.台风远距离暴雨的研究进展[J].热带气象学报,27(2):264-270.Cong Chunhua,Chen Lianshou,Lei Xiaotu,et al.2011.An overview on the study of tropical cyclone remote rainfall[J].J.Trop.Meteor.(in Chinese),27(2):264-270,doi:10.3969/j.issn.1004-4965.2011.02.016.
Craig G C,Gray S L.1996.CISK or WISHE as the mechanism for tropical cyclone intensification[J].J.Atmos.Sci.,53(23):3528-3540,doi:10.1175/1520-0469(1996)053<3528:COWATM>2.0.CO;2.
Dickinson R E,Henderson-Sellers A,Kennedy P J.1993.Biosphereatmosphere transfer scheme(BATS)version 1e as coupled to the NCARcommunity climate model[R].NCAR Technical Note NCAR/TN-387+STR.Boulder,Colorado:National Center for Atmospheric Research,Climate and Global Dynamics Division,doi:10.5065/D67W6959.
端义宏,余晖,伍荣生.2005.热带气旋强度变化研究进展[J].气象学报,63(5):636-645.Duan Yihong,Yu Hui,Wu Rongsheng.2005.Review of the research in the intensity change of tropical cyclone[J].Acta Meteor.Sinica(in Chinese),63(5):636-645,doi:10.3321/j.issn:0577-6619.2005.05.009.
Ebita A,Kobayashi S,Ota Y,et al.2011.The Japanese 55-year reanalysis“JRA-55”:An interim report[J].SOLA,7:149-152,doi:10.2151/sola.2011-038.
Emanuel K A.2013.Downscaling CMIP5 climate models shows increased tropical cyclone activity over the 21st century[J].Proc.Natl.Acad.Sci.USA,110(30):12219-12224,doi:10.1073/pnas.1301293110.
Gao X J,Pal J S,Giorgi F.2006.Projected changes in mean and extreme precipitation over the Mediterranean region from a high resolution double nested RCM simulation[J].Geophys.Res.Lett.,33(3),doi:10.1029/2005GL024954.
Gentry M S,Lackmann G M.2010.Sensitivity of simulated tropical cyclone structure and intensity to horizontal resolution[J].Mon.Wea.Rev.,138(3):688-704,doi:10.1175/2009MWR2976.1.
Gray W M.1998.The formation of tropical cyclones[J].Meteor.Atmos.Phys.,67(1-4):37-69,doi:10.1007/BF01277501.
Grell G A.1993.Prognostic evaluation of assumptions used by cumulus parameterizations[J].Mon.Wea.Rev.,121(3):764-787,doi:10.1175/1520-0493(1993)121<0764:PEOAUB>2.0.CO;2.
Hagos S,Zhang C D,Tao W K,et al.2010.Estimates of tropical diabatic heating profiles:Commonalities and uncertainties[J].J.Climate,23(3):542-558,doi:10.1175/2009JCLI3025.1.
Holtslag A A M,De Bruijn E I F,Pan H L.1990.A high resolution air mass transformation model for short-range weather forecasting[J].Mon.Wea.Rev.,118(8):1561-1575,doi:10.1175/1520-0493(1990)118<1561:AHRAMT>2.0.CO;2.
黄安宁,张耀存,朱坚.2009.中国夏季不同强度降水模拟对不同积云对流参数化方案的敏感性研究[J].大气科学,33(6):1212-1224.Huang Anning,Zhang Yaocun,Zhu Jian.2009.Sensitivity of simulation of different intensity of summer precipitation over China to different cumulus convection parameterization schemes[J].Chinese Journal of Atmospheric Sciences(in Chinese),33(6):1212-1224,doi:10.3878/j.issn.1006-9895.2009.06.08.
Huffman G J,Adler R F,Bolvin D T,et al.2009.Improving the global precipitation record:GPCP version 2.1[J].Geophys.Res.Lett.,36(17),doi:10.1029/2009GL040000.
蒋小平,刘春霞,齐义泉.2009.利用一个海气耦合模式对台风Krovanh的模拟[J].大气科学,33(1):99-108.Jiang Xiaoping,Liu Chunxia,Qi Yiquan.2009.The simulation of typhoon Krovanh using a coupled air-sea model[J].Chinese Journal of Atmospheric Sciences(in Chinese),33(1):99-108,doi:10.3878/j.issn.1006-9895.2009.01.09.
Kiehl J T,Hack J J,Bonan G B,et al.1996.Description of the NCARcommunity climate model(CCM3)[R].NCAR Technical Note NCAR/TN-420+STR.Boulder,CO:National Center for Atmospheric Research,Climate and Global Dynamics Division,doi:10.5065/D6FF3Q99.
Knapp K R,Kruk M C,Levinson D H,et al.2010.The international best track archive for climate stewardship(IBTr ACS)unifying tropical cyclone data[J].Bull.Amer.Meteor.Soc.,91(3):363-376,doi:10.1175/2009BAMS2755.1.
Knutson T R,Sirutis J J,Vecchi G A,et al.2013.Dynamical downscaling projections of twenty-first-century Atlantic hurricane activity:CMIP3 and CMIP5 model-based scenarios[J].J.Climate,26(17):6591-6617,doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00539.1.
Knutson T R,Sirutis J J,Zhao M,et al.2015.Global projections of intense tropical cyclone activity for the late twenty-first century from dynamical downscaling of CMIP5/RCP4.5 scenarios[J].J.Climate,28(18):7203-7224,doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-15-0129.1.
Kobayashi C,Sugi M.2004.Impact of horizontal resolution on the simulation of the Asian summer monsoon and tropical cyclones in the JMA global model[J].Climate Dyn.,23(2):165-176,doi:10.1007/s00382-004-0427-8.
Li L J,Lin P F,Yu Y Q,et al.2013a.The flexible global oceanatmosphere-land system model,Grid-point Version 2:FGOALS-g2[J].Adv.Atmos.Sci.,30(3):543-560,doi:10.1007/s00376-012-2140-6.
Li L J,Wang B,Dong L,et al.2013b.Evaluation of grid-point atmospheric model of IAP LASG version 2(GAMIL2)[J].Adv.Atmos.Sci.,30(3):855-867,doi:10.1007/s00376-013-2157-5.
林惠娟,张耀存.2004.影响我国热带气旋活动的气候特征及其与太平洋海温的关系[J].热带气象学报,20(2):218-224.Lin Huijuan,Zhang Yaocun.2004.Climatic features of the tropical cyclone influencing China and its relationship with the sea surface temperature in the Pacific Ocean[J].J.Trop.Meteor.(in Chinese),20(2):218-224,doi:10.3969/j.issn.1004-4965.2004.02.015.
刘磊,费建芳,林霄沛,等.2011.海气相互作用对“格美”台风发展的影响研究[J].大气科学,35(3):444-456.Liu Lei,Fei Jianfang,Lin Xiaopei,et al.2011.Effect of air-sea interaction on typhoon Kaemi[J].Chinese Journal of Atmospheric Sciences(in Chinese),35(3):444-456.
刘磊,费建芳,马占宏,等.2017.区域台风-海洋耦合模式的构建及应用研究[J].大气科学,41(1):178-188.Liu Lei,Fei Jianfang,Ma Zhanhong,et al.2017.Construction and application of a regional typhoon-ocean coupled model[J].Chinese Journal of Atmospheric Sciences(in Chinese),41(1):178-188,doi:10.3878/j.issn.1006-9895.1604.15327.
Liu S Y,Gao W,Liang X Z.2013.A regional climate model downscaling projection of China future climate change[J].Climate Dyn.,41(7-8):1871-1884,doi:10.1007/s00382-012-1632-5.
陆艳艳,张耀存.2007.P-σ区域气候模式对东亚副热带西风急流的数值模拟[J].高原气象,26(2):213-224.Lu Yanyan,Zhang Yaocun.2007.Numerical simulation of East Asian subtropical westerly jet using regional climate model with P-σmixed coordinate[J].Plateau Meteor.(in Chinese),26(2):213-224,doi:10.3321/j.issn:1000-0534.2007.02.001.
Manabe S,Holloway Jr J L,Stone H M.1970.Tropical circulation in a timeintegration of a global model of the atmosphere[J].J.Atmos.Sci.,27(4):580-613,doi:10.1175/1520-0469(1970)027<0580:TCIATI>2.0.CO;2.
Mcbride J L.1995.Tropical cyclone formation,chapter 3,global perspectives on tropical cyclones[R].Technol.Doc.WMO/TD No 693.Geneva:World Meteorological Organization,63-105.
Murakami H,Sugi M.2010.Effect of model resolution on tropical cyclone climate projections[J].SOLA,6:73-76,doi:10.2151/sola.2010-019.
Murakami H,Wang Y Q,Yoshimura H,et al.2012.Future changes in tropical cyclone activity projected by the new high-resolution MRI-AGCM[J].J.Climate,25(9):3237-3260,doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-11-00415.1.
Murakami H,Wang B,Li T,et al.2013.Projected increase in tropical cyclones near Hawaii[J].Nat.Climate Change,3(8):749-754,doi:10.1038/nclimate1890.
Murakami H,Hsu P C,Arakawa O,et al.2014.Influence of model biases on projected future changes in tropical cyclone frequency of occurrence[J].J.Climate,27(5):2159-2181,doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-13-00436.1.
Murakami H.2014.Tropical cyclones in reanalysis data sets[J].Geophys.Res.Lett.,41(6):2133-2141,doi:10.1002/2014GL059519.
Nigam S,Chung C,De Weaver E.2000.ENSO diabatic heating in ECMWFand NCEP-NCAR reanalyses,and NCAR CCM3 simulation[J].J.Climate,13(17):3152-3171,doi:10.1175/1520-0442(2000)013<3152:EDHIEA>2.0.CO;2.
Pal J S,Giorgi F,Bi X Q,et al.2007.Regional climate modeling for the developing world:The ICTP Reg CM3 and Reg CNET[J].Bull.Amer.Meteor.Soc.,88(9):1395-1409,doi:10.1175/BAMS-88-9-1395.
石英,高学杰.2008.温室效应对我国东部地区气候影响的高分辨率数值试验[J].大气科学,32(5):1006-1018.Shi Ying,Gao Xuejie.2008.Influence of greenhouse effect on eastern China climate simulated by a high resolution regional climate model[J].Chinese Journal of Atmospheric Sciences(in Chinese),32(5):1006-1018,doi:10.3878/j.issn.1006-9895.2008.05.02.
石英,高学杰,Giorgi F,等.2010.全球变暖背景下中国区域不同强度降水事件变化的高分辨率数值模拟[J].气候变化研究进展,6(3):164-169.Shi Ying,Gao Xuejie,Giorgi F,et al.2010.High resolution simulation of changes in different-intensity precipitation events over China under global warming[J].Adv.Climate Change Res.(in Chinese),6(3):164-169,doi:10.3969/j.issn.1673-1719.2010.03.002.
Strachan J,Vidale P L,Hodges K,et al.2013.Investigating global tropical cyclone activity with a hierarchy of AGCMs:The role of model resolution[J].J.Climate,26(1):133-152,doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00012.1.
Walsh K J E,Fiorino M,Landsea C W,et al.2007.Objectively determined resolution-dependent threshold criteria for the detection of tropical cyclones in climate models and reanalyses[J].J.Climate,20(10):2307-2314,doi:10.1175/JCLI4074.1.
王世玉,张耀存.1999.不同区域气候模式对中国东部区域气候模拟的比较[J].高原气象,18(1):28-38.Wang Shiyu,Zhang Yaocun.1999.Simulation of regional climate over eastern China with different regional climate models[J].Plateau Meteor.(in Chinese),18(1):28-38,doi:10.3321/j.issn:1000-0534.1999.01.004.
姚隽琛,周天军,邹立维.2015.区域耦合模式FROALS模拟的西北太平洋热带气旋潜势分布与年际变率:耦合与非耦合试验比较[J].大气科学,39(4):802-814.Yao Junchen,Zhou Tianjun,Zou Liwei.2015.Distribution and interannual variability of tropical cyclone genesis over the western North Pacific simulated by a regional coupled model-FROALS:Comparison with an uncoupled model[J].Chinese Journal of Atmospheric Sciences(in Chinese),39(4):802-814,doi:10.3878/j.issn.1006-9895.1411.14209.
Zeng X B,Zhao M,Dickinson R E.1998.Intercomparison of bulk aerodynamic algorithms for the computation of sea surface fluxes using TOGA COARE and TAO data[J].J.Climate,11(10):2628-2644,doi:10.1175/1520-0442(1998)011<2628:IOBAAF>2.0.CO;2.
张冬峰,高学杰,赵宗慈,等.2005.Reg CM3区域气候模式对中国气候的模拟[J].气候变化研究进展,1(3):119-121.Zhang Dongfeng,Gao Xuejie,Zhao Zongci,et al.2005.Simulation of climate in China by Reg CM3 model[J].Adv.Climate Change Res.(in Chinese),1(3):119-121,doi:10.3969/j.issn.1673-1719.2005.03.005.
张冬峰,徐影,刘向文.2016.Reg CM4.4对中国夏季气候的回报和2014年预测[J].气象与环境科学,39(2):104-112.Zhang Dongfeng,Xu Ying,Liu Xiangwen.2016.Hindcast experiments of the summer climate over China by Reg CM4.4 and prediction about 2014[J].Meteor.Environ.Sci.(in Chinese),39(2):104-112,doi:10.16765/j.cnki.1673-7148.2016.02.015.
Zhao M,Held I M,Lin S J,et al.2009.Simulations of global hurricane climatology,interannual variability,and response to global warming using a 50-km resolution GCM[J].J.Climate,22(24):333-363,doi:10.1175/2009JCLI3049.1.
钟中,苏炳凯,赵鸣,等.2004.区域气候模式中侧边界地形缓冲区作用的数值试验[J].高原气象,23(1):48-54.Zhong Zhong,Su Bingkai,Zhao Ming,et al.2004.Numerical experiments on the effects of lateral boundary topographic buffer zone in regional climate model[J].Plateau Meteor.(in Chinese),23(1):48-54,doi:10.3321/j.issn:1000-0534.2004.01.007.
Zhong Z.2006.A possible cause of a regional climate model’s failure in simulating the East Asian summer monsoon[J].Geophys.Res.Lett.,33(24),doi:10.1029/2006GL027654.
Zhong Z,Wang X T,Min J Z.2010.Testing the influence of western Pacific subtropical high on the precipitation over eastern China in summer using Reg CM3[J].Theor.Appl.Climatol.,100(1-2):67-78,doi:10.1007/s00704-009-0166-1.
周冠博,崔晓鹏,高守亭.2012.台风“凤凰”登陆过程的高分辨率数值模拟及其降水的诊断分析[J].大气科学,36(1):23-34.Zhou Guanbo,Cui Xiaopeng,Gao Shouting.2012.The high-resolution numerical simulation and diagnostic analysis of the landfall process of typhoon Fungwong[J].Chinese Journal of Atmospheric Sciences(in Chinese),36(1):23-34.
Zhou T J,Yu Y Q,Liu Y M,et al.2014.Flexible Global OceanAtmosphere-Land System Model:A Modeling Tool for the Climate Change Research Community[M].Berlin Heidelberg:Springer-Verlag,483pp.
Zou L W,Zhou T J.2011.Sensitivity of a regional ocean-atmosphere coupled model to convection parameterization over western North Pacific[J].J.Geophys.Res.,116(D18),doi:10.1029/2011JD015844.
Zou L W,Zhou T J.2013a.Can a regional ocean-atmosphere coupled model improve the simulation of the interannual variability of the western North Pacific summer monsoon?[J].J.Climate,26(7):2353-2367,doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-11-00722.1.
Zou L W,Zhou T J.2013b.Improve the simulation of western North Pacific summer monsoon in Reg CM3 by suppressing convection[J].Meteor.Atmos.Phys.,121(1-2):29-38,doi:10.1007/s00703-013-0255-7.
Zou L W,Zhou T J,Peng D D.2016.Dynamical downscaling of historical climate over CORDEX East Asia domain:A comparison of regional ocean-atmosphere coupled model to stand-alone RCM simulations[J].J.Geophys.Res.,121(4):1442-1458,doi:10.1002/2015JD023912.
Bender M A,Knutson T R,Tuleya R E,et al.2010.Modeled impact of anthropogenic warming on the frequency of intense Atlantic hurricanes[J].Science,327(5964):454-458,doi:10.1126/science.1180568.
Bengtsson L,Botzet M,Esch M.1995.Hurricane-type vortices in a general circulation model[J].Tellus A,47(2):175-196,doi:10.3402/tellusa.v47i2.11500.
丛春华,陈联寿,雷小途,等.2011.台风远距离暴雨的研究进展[J].热带气象学报,27(2):264-270.Cong Chunhua,Chen Lianshou,Lei Xiaotu,et al.2011.An overview on the study of tropical cyclone remote rainfall[J].J.Trop.Meteor.(in Chinese),27(2):264-270,doi:10.3969/j.issn.1004-4965.2011.02.016.
Craig G C,Gray S L.1996.CISK or WISHE as the mechanism for tropical cyclone intensification[J].J.Atmos.Sci.,53(23):3528-3540,doi:10.1175/1520-0469(1996)053<3528:COWATM>2.0.CO;2.
Dickinson R E,Henderson-Sellers A,Kennedy P J.1993.Biosphereatmosphere transfer scheme(BATS)version 1e as coupled to the NCARcommunity climate model[R].NCAR Technical Note NCAR/TN-387+STR.Boulder,Colorado:National Center for Atmospheric Research,Climate and Global Dynamics Division,doi:10.5065/D67W6959.
端义宏,余晖,伍荣生.2005.热带气旋强度变化研究进展[J].气象学报,63(5):636-645.Duan Yihong,Yu Hui,Wu Rongsheng.2005.Review of the research in the intensity change of tropical cyclone[J].Acta Meteor.Sinica(in Chinese),63(5):636-645,doi:10.3321/j.issn:0577-6619.2005.05.009.
Ebita A,Kobayashi S,Ota Y,et al.2011.The Japanese 55-year reanalysis“JRA-55”:An interim report[J].SOLA,7:149-152,doi:10.2151/sola.2011-038.
Emanuel K A.2013.Downscaling CMIP5 climate models shows increased tropical cyclone activity over the 21st century[J].Proc.Natl.Acad.Sci.USA,110(30):12219-12224,doi:10.1073/pnas.1301293110.
Gao X J,Pal J S,Giorgi F.2006.Projected changes in mean and extreme precipitation over the Mediterranean region from a high resolution double nested RCM simulation[J].Geophys.Res.Lett.,33(3),doi:10.1029/2005GL024954.
Gentry M S,Lackmann G M.2010.Sensitivity of simulated tropical cyclone structure and intensity to horizontal resolution[J].Mon.Wea.Rev.,138(3):688-704,doi:10.1175/2009MWR2976.1.
Gray W M.1998.The formation of tropical cyclones[J].Meteor.Atmos.Phys.,67(1-4):37-69,doi:10.1007/BF01277501.
Grell G A.1993.Prognostic evaluation of assumptions used by cumulus parameterizations[J].Mon.Wea.Rev.,121(3):764-787,doi:10.1175/1520-0493(1993)121<0764:PEOAUB>2.0.CO;2.
Hagos S,Zhang C D,Tao W K,et al.2010.Estimates of tropical diabatic heating profiles:Commonalities and uncertainties[J].J.Climate,23(3):542-558,doi:10.1175/2009JCLI3025.1.
Holtslag A A M,De Bruijn E I F,Pan H L.1990.A high resolution air mass transformation model for short-range weather forecasting[J].Mon.Wea.Rev.,118(8):1561-1575,doi:10.1175/1520-0493(1990)118<1561:AHRAMT>2.0.CO;2.
黄安宁,张耀存,朱坚.2009.中国夏季不同强度降水模拟对不同积云对流参数化方案的敏感性研究[J].大气科学,33(6):1212-1224.Huang Anning,Zhang Yaocun,Zhu Jian.2009.Sensitivity of simulation of different intensity of summer precipitation over China to different cumulus convection parameterization schemes[J].Chinese Journal of Atmospheric Sciences(in Chinese),33(6):1212-1224,doi:10.3878/j.issn.1006-9895.2009.06.08.
Huffman G J,Adler R F,Bolvin D T,et al.2009.Improving the global precipitation record:GPCP version 2.1[J].Geophys.Res.Lett.,36(17),doi:10.1029/2009GL040000.
蒋小平,刘春霞,齐义泉.2009.利用一个海气耦合模式对台风Krovanh的模拟[J].大气科学,33(1):99-108.Jiang Xiaoping,Liu Chunxia,Qi Yiquan.2009.The simulation of typhoon Krovanh using a coupled air-sea model[J].Chinese Journal of Atmospheric Sciences(in Chinese),33(1):99-108,doi:10.3878/j.issn.1006-9895.2009.01.09.
Kiehl J T,Hack J J,Bonan G B,et al.1996.Description of the NCARcommunity climate model(CCM3)[R].NCAR Technical Note NCAR/TN-420+STR.Boulder,CO:National Center for Atmospheric Research,Climate and Global Dynamics Division,doi:10.5065/D6FF3Q99.
Knapp K R,Kruk M C,Levinson D H,et al.2010.The international best track archive for climate stewardship(IBTr ACS)unifying tropical cyclone data[J].Bull.Amer.Meteor.Soc.,91(3):363-376,doi:10.1175/2009BAMS2755.1.
Knutson T R,Sirutis J J,Vecchi G A,et al.2013.Dynamical downscaling projections of twenty-first-century Atlantic hurricane activity:CMIP3 and CMIP5 model-based scenarios[J].J.Climate,26(17):6591-6617,doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00539.1.
Knutson T R,Sirutis J J,Zhao M,et al.2015.Global projections of intense tropical cyclone activity for the late twenty-first century from dynamical downscaling of CMIP5/RCP4.5 scenarios[J].J.Climate,28(18):7203-7224,doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-15-0129.1.
Kobayashi C,Sugi M.2004.Impact of horizontal resolution on the simulation of the Asian summer monsoon and tropical cyclones in the JMA global model[J].Climate Dyn.,23(2):165-176,doi:10.1007/s00382-004-0427-8.
Li L J,Lin P F,Yu Y Q,et al.2013a.The flexible global oceanatmosphere-land system model,Grid-point Version 2:FGOALS-g2[J].Adv.Atmos.Sci.,30(3):543-560,doi:10.1007/s00376-012-2140-6.
Li L J,Wang B,Dong L,et al.2013b.Evaluation of grid-point atmospheric model of IAP LASG version 2(GAMIL2)[J].Adv.Atmos.Sci.,30(3):855-867,doi:10.1007/s00376-013-2157-5.
林惠娟,张耀存.2004.影响我国热带气旋活动的气候特征及其与太平洋海温的关系[J].热带气象学报,20(2):218-224.Lin Huijuan,Zhang Yaocun.2004.Climatic features of the tropical cyclone influencing China and its relationship with the sea surface temperature in the Pacific Ocean[J].J.Trop.Meteor.(in Chinese),20(2):218-224,doi:10.3969/j.issn.1004-4965.2004.02.015.
刘磊,费建芳,林霄沛,等.2011.海气相互作用对“格美”台风发展的影响研究[J].大气科学,35(3):444-456.Liu Lei,Fei Jianfang,Lin Xiaopei,et al.2011.Effect of air-sea interaction on typhoon Kaemi[J].Chinese Journal of Atmospheric Sciences(in Chinese),35(3):444-456.
刘磊,费建芳,马占宏,等.2017.区域台风-海洋耦合模式的构建及应用研究[J].大气科学,41(1):178-188.Liu Lei,Fei Jianfang,Ma Zhanhong,et al.2017.Construction and application of a regional typhoon-ocean coupled model[J].Chinese Journal of Atmospheric Sciences(in Chinese),41(1):178-188,doi:10.3878/j.issn.1006-9895.1604.15327.
Liu S Y,Gao W,Liang X Z.2013.A regional climate model downscaling projection of China future climate change[J].Climate Dyn.,41(7-8):1871-1884,doi:10.1007/s00382-012-1632-5.
陆艳艳,张耀存.2007.P-σ区域气候模式对东亚副热带西风急流的数值模拟[J].高原气象,26(2):213-224.Lu Yanyan,Zhang Yaocun.2007.Numerical simulation of East Asian subtropical westerly jet using regional climate model with P-σmixed coordinate[J].Plateau Meteor.(in Chinese),26(2):213-224,doi:10.3321/j.issn:1000-0534.2007.02.001.
Manabe S,Holloway Jr J L,Stone H M.1970.Tropical circulation in a timeintegration of a global model of the atmosphere[J].J.Atmos.Sci.,27(4):580-613,doi:10.1175/1520-0469(1970)027<0580:TCIATI>2.0.CO;2.
Mcbride J L.1995.Tropical cyclone formation,chapter 3,global perspectives on tropical cyclones[R].Technol.Doc.WMO/TD No 693.Geneva:World Meteorological Organization,63-105.
Murakami H,Sugi M.2010.Effect of model resolution on tropical cyclone climate projections[J].SOLA,6:73-76,doi:10.2151/sola.2010-019.
Murakami H,Wang Y Q,Yoshimura H,et al.2012.Future changes in tropical cyclone activity projected by the new high-resolution MRI-AGCM[J].J.Climate,25(9):3237-3260,doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-11-00415.1.
Murakami H,Wang B,Li T,et al.2013.Projected increase in tropical cyclones near Hawaii[J].Nat.Climate Change,3(8):749-754,doi:10.1038/nclimate1890.
Murakami H,Hsu P C,Arakawa O,et al.2014.Influence of model biases on projected future changes in tropical cyclone frequency of occurrence[J].J.Climate,27(5):2159-2181,doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-13-00436.1.
Murakami H.2014.Tropical cyclones in reanalysis data sets[J].Geophys.Res.Lett.,41(6):2133-2141,doi:10.1002/2014GL059519.
Nigam S,Chung C,De Weaver E.2000.ENSO diabatic heating in ECMWFand NCEP-NCAR reanalyses,and NCAR CCM3 simulation[J].J.Climate,13(17):3152-3171,doi:10.1175/1520-0442(2000)013<3152:EDHIEA>2.0.CO;2.
Pal J S,Giorgi F,Bi X Q,et al.2007.Regional climate modeling for the developing world:The ICTP Reg CM3 and Reg CNET[J].Bull.Amer.Meteor.Soc.,88(9):1395-1409,doi:10.1175/BAMS-88-9-1395.
石英,高学杰.2008.温室效应对我国东部地区气候影响的高分辨率数值试验[J].大气科学,32(5):1006-1018.Shi Ying,Gao Xuejie.2008.Influence of greenhouse effect on eastern China climate simulated by a high resolution regional climate model[J].Chinese Journal of Atmospheric Sciences(in Chinese),32(5):1006-1018,doi:10.3878/j.issn.1006-9895.2008.05.02.
石英,高学杰,Giorgi F,等.2010.全球变暖背景下中国区域不同强度降水事件变化的高分辨率数值模拟[J].气候变化研究进展,6(3):164-169.Shi Ying,Gao Xuejie,Giorgi F,et al.2010.High resolution simulation of changes in different-intensity precipitation events over China under global warming[J].Adv.Climate Change Res.(in Chinese),6(3):164-169,doi:10.3969/j.issn.1673-1719.2010.03.002.
Strachan J,Vidale P L,Hodges K,et al.2013.Investigating global tropical cyclone activity with a hierarchy of AGCMs:The role of model resolution[J].J.Climate,26(1):133-152,doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00012.1.
Walsh K J E,Fiorino M,Landsea C W,et al.2007.Objectively determined resolution-dependent threshold criteria for the detection of tropical cyclones in climate models and reanalyses[J].J.Climate,20(10):2307-2314,doi:10.1175/JCLI4074.1.
王世玉,张耀存.1999.不同区域气候模式对中国东部区域气候模拟的比较[J].高原气象,18(1):28-38.Wang Shiyu,Zhang Yaocun.1999.Simulation of regional climate over eastern China with different regional climate models[J].Plateau Meteor.(in Chinese),18(1):28-38,doi:10.3321/j.issn:1000-0534.1999.01.004.
姚隽琛,周天军,邹立维.2015.区域耦合模式FROALS模拟的西北太平洋热带气旋潜势分布与年际变率:耦合与非耦合试验比较[J].大气科学,39(4):802-814.Yao Junchen,Zhou Tianjun,Zou Liwei.2015.Distribution and interannual variability of tropical cyclone genesis over the western North Pacific simulated by a regional coupled model-FROALS:Comparison with an uncoupled model[J].Chinese Journal of Atmospheric Sciences(in Chinese),39(4):802-814,doi:10.3878/j.issn.1006-9895.1411.14209.
Zeng X B,Zhao M,Dickinson R E.1998.Intercomparison of bulk aerodynamic algorithms for the computation of sea surface fluxes using TOGA COARE and TAO data[J].J.Climate,11(10):2628-2644,doi:10.1175/1520-0442(1998)011<2628:IOBAAF>2.0.CO;2.
张冬峰,高学杰,赵宗慈,等.2005.Reg CM3区域气候模式对中国气候的模拟[J].气候变化研究进展,1(3):119-121.Zhang Dongfeng,Gao Xuejie,Zhao Zongci,et al.2005.Simulation of climate in China by Reg CM3 model[J].Adv.Climate Change Res.(in Chinese),1(3):119-121,doi:10.3969/j.issn.1673-1719.2005.03.005.
张冬峰,徐影,刘向文.2016.Reg CM4.4对中国夏季气候的回报和2014年预测[J].气象与环境科学,39(2):104-112.Zhang Dongfeng,Xu Ying,Liu Xiangwen.2016.Hindcast experiments of the summer climate over China by Reg CM4.4 and prediction about 2014[J].Meteor.Environ.Sci.(in Chinese),39(2):104-112,doi:10.16765/j.cnki.1673-7148.2016.02.015.
Zhao M,Held I M,Lin S J,et al.2009.Simulations of global hurricane climatology,interannual variability,and response to global warming using a 50-km resolution GCM[J].J.Climate,22(24):333-363,doi:10.1175/2009JCLI3049.1.
钟中,苏炳凯,赵鸣,等.2004.区域气候模式中侧边界地形缓冲区作用的数值试验[J].高原气象,23(1):48-54.Zhong Zhong,Su Bingkai,Zhao Ming,et al.2004.Numerical experiments on the effects of lateral boundary topographic buffer zone in regional climate model[J].Plateau Meteor.(in Chinese),23(1):48-54,doi:10.3321/j.issn:1000-0534.2004.01.007.
Zhong Z.2006.A possible cause of a regional climate model’s failure in simulating the East Asian summer monsoon[J].Geophys.Res.Lett.,33(24),doi:10.1029/2006GL027654.
Zhong Z,Wang X T,Min J Z.2010.Testing the influence of western Pacific subtropical high on the precipitation over eastern China in summer using Reg CM3[J].Theor.Appl.Climatol.,100(1-2):67-78,doi:10.1007/s00704-009-0166-1.
周冠博,崔晓鹏,高守亭.2012.台风“凤凰”登陆过程的高分辨率数值模拟及其降水的诊断分析[J].大气科学,36(1):23-34.Zhou Guanbo,Cui Xiaopeng,Gao Shouting.2012.The high-resolution numerical simulation and diagnostic analysis of the landfall process of typhoon Fungwong[J].Chinese Journal of Atmospheric Sciences(in Chinese),36(1):23-34.
Zhou T J,Yu Y Q,Liu Y M,et al.2014.Flexible Global OceanAtmosphere-Land System Model:A Modeling Tool for the Climate Change Research Community[M].Berlin Heidelberg:Springer-Verlag,483pp.
Zou L W,Zhou T J.2011.Sensitivity of a regional ocean-atmosphere coupled model to convection parameterization over western North Pacific[J].J.Geophys.Res.,116(D18),doi:10.1029/2011JD015844.
Zou L W,Zhou T J.2013a.Can a regional ocean-atmosphere coupled model improve the simulation of the interannual variability of the western North Pacific summer monsoon?[J].J.Climate,26(7):2353-2367,doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-11-00722.1.
Zou L W,Zhou T J.2013b.Improve the simulation of western North Pacific summer monsoon in Reg CM3 by suppressing convection[J].Meteor.Atmos.Phys.,121(1-2):29-38,doi:10.1007/s00703-013-0255-7.
Zou L W,Zhou T J,Peng D D.2016.Dynamical downscaling of historical climate over CORDEX East Asia domain:A comparison of regional ocean-atmosphere coupled model to stand-alone RCM simulations[J].J.Geophys.Res.,121(4):1442-1458,doi:10.1002/2015JD023912.
© 2004-2018 中国地质图书馆版权所有 京ICP备05064691号 京公网安备11010802017129号 地址：北京市海淀区学院路29号 邮编：100083 电话：办公室：(+86 10)66554848；文献借阅、咨询服务、科技查新：66554700 |