1981-2017年西藏山南市汛期雨日变化特征
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摘要
文章利用西藏山南市1981-2017年汛期(5-9月)6个气象站逐日降水资料,定义不同等级雨日选取标准,采用线性回归、累积距平、相关系数等统计学方法,分析了山南市雨日时空变化特征。结果表明:山南市汛期各等级雨日空间分布基本一致,自西南-东北呈增加趋势;总雨日数、中雨日数、大雨日数随年代呈增加趋势,小雨日数则呈不明显减少趋势,气候倾向率为-0.06 d/10a;小雨对山南市汛期降水贡献率最大,平均降水贡献率高达89%,小雨为山南汛期主要降水事件,但中雨事件对山南市旱涝分布影响最大;各等级雨日具有明显的年代际变化,存在突变年份。
Based on the daily precipitation data measured at 6 meteorological stations between the years of 1981-2017 during flood season(May-September) in Shannan area,Tibet,the standard of the grades of number of rainydays was defined in this paper.Using the statistical methods of linear regression,cumulative departure,correla-tion coefficient etc.,the characteristics of the spatial and temporal variation of number of rainy days in this areawas analyzed.The results show that the spatial distribution of each defined grade during the flood season is basi-cally consistent,with the increasing trend from the southwest to the northeast.And the total numbers of rainydays,moderate rainy days,as well as heavy rainy days show increasing trend,in the meantime,the number oflight rainy days show slightly decreasing trend with the climatic trend rate of-0.06 d/10 a.Moreover,the contribu-tion rate of light rainfall to precipitation in this area during the flood season is the most significant with the aver-age precipitation contribution rate as high as 89%.Light rainfall is the main precipitation event,but the moderaterainfall event has the greatest influence on the drought and flood distribution,and the results also show that thereis obvious inter-decadal variation of each grade of number of rainy days and years with abrupt change.
Based on the daily precipitation data measured at 6 meteorological stations between the years of 1981-2017 during flood season(May-September) in Shannan area,Tibet,the standard of the grades of number of rainydays was defined in this paper.Using the statistical methods of linear regression,cumulative departure,correla-tion coefficient etc.,the characteristics of the spatial and temporal variation of number of rainy days in this areawas analyzed.The results show that the spatial distribution of each defined grade during the flood season is basi-cally consistent,with the increasing trend from the southwest to the northeast.And the total numbers of rainydays,moderate rainy days,as well as heavy rainy days show increasing trend,in the meantime,the number oflight rainy days show slightly decreasing trend with the climatic trend rate of-0.06 d/10 a.Moreover,the contribu-tion rate of light rainfall to precipitation in this area during the flood season is the most significant with the aver-age precipitation contribution rate as high as 89%.Light rainfall is the main precipitation event,but the moderaterainfall event has the greatest influence on the drought and flood distribution,and the results also show that thereis obvious inter-decadal variation of each grade of number of rainy days and years with abrupt change.
引文
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[2]杨伟,何金海,王盘兴,等.近42年来青藏高原内降水时空不均匀性特征分析[J].地理学报,2011,66(3):376-384.
[3][13]王传辉,周顺武,唐晓萍,等.近48年青藏高原强降水的时空分布特征[J].地理科学,2011,31(4):470-477.
[3]李生辰,徐亮,郭英香,等.近34a青藏高原降水变化及其分区[J].中国沙漠,2007,27(2):307-317.
[4][14]林振耀,赵昕奕,青藏高原气温降水变化的空间特征[J].中国科学(D辑),1996,26(4):354-358.
[5]卢鹤立,邵全琴,刘纪远,等.近44年来青藏高原夏季降水时空分布特征[J].地理学报,2007,62(9):946-958.
[6]黄一民,章新平.青藏高原四季降水变化特征分析[J].长江流域资源与环境,2007,16(4):537-542.
[7][11]张磊,繆启龙.青藏高原近40年来的降水变化特征[J].干旱区地理,2007,30(2):240-246.
[8][15]韦志刚,黄荣辉,董文杰.青藏高原气温与降水的年际和年代际变化[J].大气科学,2003,27(2):157-170.
[9][16]格桑,唐小萍,路红亚.近35年青藏高原雨量和雨日的变化特征[J].地理学报,2008,28(2):235-240.
[17]林志强,唐叔乙,何晓红,等.西藏高原汛期水汽输送特征与降水异常[J].气象,2011,37(8):984-990.
[18]黄晓清,罗布次仁,杨勇,等.西藏高原汛期降水日数和强度的时空演变分析[J].中国沙漠,2013,33(3):902-910.
[19]魏凤英.现代气候统计诊断与预测技术[M].北京:气象出版社,1999.
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