安徽省近40 a极端温度事件的气候特征分析
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摘要
利用1975—2014年安徽省77个观测站的日最高温度、最低温度和平均气温资料,对近40 a极端温度事件的时空分布特征进行分析。结果表明:安徽省冬季极端低温事件的发生频次分布,总体呈北多南少,地区差异较大,极端低温事件发生次数最多的是宿州萧县。近40 a间冬季的极端低温事件发生减少趋势显著,与冬季平均温度的显著上升相对应。年极端最低温度年际变化趋势不明显,且极端低温的发生频次与强度并不对应。夏季极端高温事件发生频次较多区域为江南。1975—2014年,夏季极端高温事件发生呈整体增多趋势,但趋势不显著。年极端最高温度的时间序列,与极端高温事件发生频次的时间序列是相对应的,呈现明显的正相关。从MK突变上看,年极端低温和高温事件发生均存在突变。分析合成环流场发现,冬季极端冷事件发生时,亚洲中高纬度环流的经向度明显增强;夏季极端暖事件的发生与副高的明显西伸增强维持有关。
Using daily maximum, minimum and mean temperature data at 77 stations in Anhui province from 1975 to 2014, the temporal and spatial distribution characteristics of extreme temperature events were analyzed. The results showed that the occurrence frequency of extreme cold events in winter has significant regional dependence, which is greater in the north than in the south, and the most frequently is in Anhui,Xiaoxian. The decrease trend of occurrence of extreme cold events of near 40 years was significant, corresponding to the significant increase trend of winter mean temperature. The annual variation of extreme minimum temperature was not obvious, and the frequency and intensity of extreme cold events do not correspond to each other. During the period from 1975 to 2014, the occurrence of extreme warm events in summer is mainly located in the south, and it had an increase trend although it was not significant. The time series of the extreme maximum temperature of the year is corresponding to the time series of the occurrence frequency of extreme warm events. From the analysis of MK mutation, the fluctuation of extreme cold events and extreme warm events both had a point mutation. The analysis of synthetic circulation field showed that the occurrence of extreme cold events in winter is closely related to the meridional dimensions of the circulation in high latitudes of Asia,while the occurrence of the extreme warm events in summer is greatly affected by the obvious westward extension and maintenance of the subtropical high.
Using daily maximum, minimum and mean temperature data at 77 stations in Anhui province from 1975 to 2014, the temporal and spatial distribution characteristics of extreme temperature events were analyzed. The results showed that the occurrence frequency of extreme cold events in winter has significant regional dependence, which is greater in the north than in the south, and the most frequently is in Anhui,Xiaoxian. The decrease trend of occurrence of extreme cold events of near 40 years was significant, corresponding to the significant increase trend of winter mean temperature. The annual variation of extreme minimum temperature was not obvious, and the frequency and intensity of extreme cold events do not correspond to each other. During the period from 1975 to 2014, the occurrence of extreme warm events in summer is mainly located in the south, and it had an increase trend although it was not significant. The time series of the extreme maximum temperature of the year is corresponding to the time series of the occurrence frequency of extreme warm events. From the analysis of MK mutation, the fluctuation of extreme cold events and extreme warm events both had a point mutation. The analysis of synthetic circulation field showed that the occurrence of extreme cold events in winter is closely related to the meridional dimensions of the circulation in high latitudes of Asia,while the occurrence of the extreme warm events in summer is greatly affected by the obvious westward extension and maintenance of the subtropical high.
引文
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[20]肖冰霜,马玉霞,赵天保,等.基于均一化资料的中国大陆极端温度的长期趋势[J].气象, 2016, 42(3):339-346
[21]李峰,矫梅燕,丁一汇,等.北极区近30年环流的变化及对中国强冷事件的影响[J].高原气象, 2006, 25(2):209-219
[22]刘雅星,范广洲,董一平,等.近46年中国冬季日均气温及极端温度的变化[J].成都信息工程学院学报, 2010, 25(3):286-292
[23]马锋敏,黄彩婷,张传江,等.江西地区冬季气温异常与北半球500hPa高度场的关系[J].气象与减灾研究, 2013(1):32-38
[24]郭广芬,周月华,高正旭,等.2011年冬季长江流域气温持续偏低的可能成因探析[J].暴雨灾害,2013,32(2):176-181
[2]严中伟,杨赤.近几十年中国极端气候变化格局[J].气候与环境研究,2000, 5(3):267-272
[3]翟盘茂,潘晓华.中国北方近50年温度和降水极端事件变化[J].地理学报, 2003, 58(s1):1-10
[4]龚道溢,韩晖.华北农牧交错带夏季极端气候的趋势分析[J].地理学报,2004, 59(2):230-238
[5]张宁,孙照渤,曾刚.1955-2005年中国极端气温的变化[J].南京气象学院学报,2008,31(1):123-128
[6]黄丹青,钱永甫.我国极端温度事件的定义和趋势分析[J].中山大学学报:自然科学版,2008,47(3):112-116
[7]李庆祥,黄嘉佑.对我国极端高温事件阈值的探讨[J].应用气象学报,2011,22(2):138-144
[8]杨萍,侯威,封国林.基于去趋势波动分析方法确定极端事件阈值[J].物理学报,2008,57(8):5 333-5 342
[9] Zhai P, Sun A, Ren F, et al. Changes of climate extremes in China[J].Climatic Change, 1999, 42(1):203-218
[10]刘学华,季致建,吴洪宝,等.中国近40 a极端气温和降水的分布特征及年代际差异[J].热带气象学报,2006,22(6):618-624
[11]钱维宏,符娇兰,张玮玮,等.近40 a中国平均气候与极值气候变化的概述[J].地球科学进展, 2007, 22(7):673-684
[12]周雅清,任国玉.2010.中国大陆1956~2008年极端气温事件变化特征分析[J].气候与环境研究,15(4):405-417
[13]闫俊,王海功,李红梅.气候变暖背景下安徽气温变化趋势分析[J].安徽农业科学, 2013(36):13 953-13 955
[14]丁建隆,汪海欧,董召荣,等. 1960~2013年安徽极端降水特征研究[J].干旱气象, 2016, 34(2):252-260
[15]江俊杰,孙卫国. 1959-2007年安徽省降水时空变化特征分析[J].中国农业气象, 2012, 33(1):27-33
[16]付伟,许信旺,司红君,等.极端气温事件对安徽省农业生产的动态影响分析[J].气象科学, 2014, 34(4):443-449
[17]王胜,田红,谢五三,等.近50 a安徽省冬半年寒潮气候特征及其对越冬作物的影响[J].暴雨灾害, 2011, 30(2):188-192
[18]胡增运,倪勇勇,邵华,等. CFSR、ERA-Interim和MERRA降水资料在中亚地区的适用性[J].干旱区地理(汉文版), 2013, 36(4):700-708
[19]高路,郝璐. ERA-Interim气温数据在中国区域的适用性评估[J].亚热带资源与环境学报, 2014(2):75-81
[20]肖冰霜,马玉霞,赵天保,等.基于均一化资料的中国大陆极端温度的长期趋势[J].气象, 2016, 42(3):339-346
[21]李峰,矫梅燕,丁一汇,等.北极区近30年环流的变化及对中国强冷事件的影响[J].高原气象, 2006, 25(2):209-219
[22]刘雅星,范广洲,董一平,等.近46年中国冬季日均气温及极端温度的变化[J].成都信息工程学院学报, 2010, 25(3):286-292
[23]马锋敏,黄彩婷,张传江,等.江西地区冬季气温异常与北半球500hPa高度场的关系[J].气象与减灾研究, 2013(1):32-38
[24]郭广芬,周月华,高正旭,等.2011年冬季长江流域气温持续偏低的可能成因探析[J].暴雨灾害,2013,32(2):176-181