长江中下游地区近60a降水变化规律研究
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摘要
利用1958—2017年长江中下游地区426个国家站逐日降水资料,通过线性趋势分析法、EOF分解法,使用五个降水特征量,分析了60 a来长江中下游地区降水的变化规律。结果表明:(1)长江中下游地区年降水量呈上升趋势,线性趋势为2.21 mm·a~(-1),夏季的线性趋势为2.03 mm·a~(-1),冬季雨量略增,而春、秋两季雨量略减;(2)年降水日数的线性趋势为-0.46 d·a~1,春、秋、冬三季降水日数均有减少,夏季持平;(3)降水强度呈弱上升趋势,降水强度的高值中心在江西以东大部以及湖北东部、安徽南部边缘,夏季的降水强度最大,冬季的最小,四季的降水强度均有弱增加趋势;(4)降水变异系数的高值中心位于安徽西北部边缘,最高值为0.25,低值中心位于湖南西部,最低值为0.14;春季的降水变异系数最低,夏季整体稳定,秋冬两季的波动性较大;(5)以年降水量作为指标可以把长江中下游地区划分为三种空间分布型,即长江中下游流域区域一致型、长江中下游北部和南部南北反相变化空间型以及长江中下游东部和西部东西反相变化空间型。
Based on daily precipitation data at 426 national stations in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River from 1958 to2017, the variation of precipitation during the recent 60 years is analyzed by linear trend analysis, EOF decomposition and fives precipitation characteristic variables. The results are as follows.(1) The linear trend rate of annual precipitation in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River is 2.21 mm·a~(-1), while the trend rate in summer is 2.03 mm·a~(-1). Rainfall in winter increases slightly, while the precipitation in spring and autumn decreases slightly.(2) The linear trend rate of annual precipitation days is-0.46 d·a~(-1). while the precipitation days in spring, autumn and winter are all decreased, and is flat in summer.(3) The precipitation intensity shows a weak upward trend. The high value centers of the precipitation intensity are in the east of Jiangxi province, the eastern part of Hubei province, and the southern edge of Anhui province. The precipitation intensity is the highest in summer, and the lowest in winter. The precipitation intensity has a weak increasing trend for all four seasons.(4) The high value center of the coefficient of variation of precipitation is located at the edge of northwestern of Anhui province and the highest value is 0.25. The center of its low value is located in the western part of Hunan and the lowest value is 0.14. The coefficient of variation of precipitation in spring is the lowest, stable in the whole summer, and the fluctuation is large in autumn and winter.(5)The area of the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River can be divided into three spatial distribution types with annual precipitation as the index, i.e., the regional consistent pattern of the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River, the spatial pattern where precipitation in the northern and southern regions of the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River varies inversely, and the spatial pattern where precipitation in the east and west regions of the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River varies inversely.
Based on daily precipitation data at 426 national stations in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River from 1958 to2017, the variation of precipitation during the recent 60 years is analyzed by linear trend analysis, EOF decomposition and fives precipitation characteristic variables. The results are as follows.(1) The linear trend rate of annual precipitation in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River is 2.21 mm·a~(-1), while the trend rate in summer is 2.03 mm·a~(-1). Rainfall in winter increases slightly, while the precipitation in spring and autumn decreases slightly.(2) The linear trend rate of annual precipitation days is-0.46 d·a~(-1). while the precipitation days in spring, autumn and winter are all decreased, and is flat in summer.(3) The precipitation intensity shows a weak upward trend. The high value centers of the precipitation intensity are in the east of Jiangxi province, the eastern part of Hubei province, and the southern edge of Anhui province. The precipitation intensity is the highest in summer, and the lowest in winter. The precipitation intensity has a weak increasing trend for all four seasons.(4) The high value center of the coefficient of variation of precipitation is located at the edge of northwestern of Anhui province and the highest value is 0.25. The center of its low value is located in the western part of Hunan and the lowest value is 0.14. The coefficient of variation of precipitation in spring is the lowest, stable in the whole summer, and the fluctuation is large in autumn and winter.(5)The area of the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River can be divided into three spatial distribution types with annual precipitation as the index, i.e., the regional consistent pattern of the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River, the spatial pattern where precipitation in the northern and southern regions of the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River varies inversely, and the spatial pattern where precipitation in the east and west regions of the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River varies inversely.
引文
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陈峪,高歌,任国玉.2005.中国十大流域近40多年降水量时空变化特征[J].自然资源学报,20(5):638-643
何书樵,郑有飞,尹继福.2013.近50年长江中下游地区降水特征分析[J].生态环境学报,20(7):1 187-1 192
李双双,延军平,万佳.2012.全球气候变化下秦岭南北气温变化特征[J].地理科学,32(7):853-858
闵爱荣,廖移山,邓雯.2016.2008-2013年中国暴雨分布情况及变化趋势分析[J].暴雨灾害,35(6):576-584
任国玉,任玉玉,战云健.2015.中国大陆降水时空变异规律-II.现代变化趋势[J].水科学进展,26(4):451-465
任国玉,吴虹,陈正洪.2000.我国降水趋势变化的空间特征[J].应用气象学报,11(3):322-330
唐晶晶.2010.1952-2007年间长江流域降水时空分布变化[D].上海:华东师范大学
唐永兰,于晓晶,徐桂荣,等.2018.近54 a湖北极端降水的变化特征及其与城市化的关系研究[J].暴雨灾害,37(1):73-82
王英,曹明奎,陶波.2006.全球气候变化背景下中国降水量空间格局的变化特征[J].地理研究,26(6):1 031-1 048
王政祥.2008.长江流域年降水量多年变化及系列代表性分析[J].人民长江,28(17):90-92
曾小凡,翟建青,姜彤.2008.长江流域年降水量的空间特征和演变规律分析[J].河海大学学报(自然科学版),36(6):727-732
张琪,李跃清.2014.近48年西南地区降水量和雨日的气候变化特征[J].高原气象,33(2):372-383
张勇,杨春瑰,唐卫亚.2015.长江中下游1-5月降水分布型及其成因[J].大气科学学报,38(1):111-119
张永领,高全洲,丁裕国.2006.长江流域夏季降水的时空特征及演变趋势分析[J].热带气象学报,22(2):161-179
Dai A,Trenberth K E,QIAN T A.2004.Global Dataset of Palmer Drought Severity Index for 1870-2002:Relationship with Soil Moisture and Effects of Surface Warming[J].Journal of Hydrometeorology,5(6):1 117-1 130
Kendall M G.1955.Rank correlation methods[J].British Journal of Psychology,25(1):86-91
Kitoh A,Hosaka M,Adachi Y.2005.Future projections of precipitation characteristics in East Asia simulated by the MRI CGCM2[J].Advances in Atmospheric Sciences,22(4):467-78
Mann H B.1945.Nonparametric Tests Against Trend[J].Econometrica,13(3):245-259
Zhang Q,XU C Y,Zhang Z.2008.Spatial and temporal variability of precipitation maxima during 1960-2005 in the Yangtze River basin and possible association with large-scale circulation[J].Journal of Hydrology,353(3-4):215-227