复杂产品研发项目技术风险扩散建模与仿真
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摘要
通过识别复杂产品研发项目中任务间功能关联和组织任务间执行关联,建立基于技术关联的研发项目组织-任务相依网络模型.在此基础上,分析技术风险事件发生时组织任务间相互作用机理,构建复杂产品研发项目技术风险扩散动力学模型,并针对由少数任务引发的技术风险扩散进行仿真.结果表明:少数任务引发的技术风险扩散会在短时间内造成较大影响,扩散过程经历缓慢扩散,失控扩散,最终达到相对稳定状态;扩散范围与组织网络规模呈近似"倒U"型关系;组织网络规模一定时,组织任务间执行关联越均匀,相依网络鲁棒性越差;存在最佳风险资源投入量使得技术风险的影响范围保持在最低水平;不同袭击策略对技术风险扩散的影响没有明显差异.研究成果丰富了风险扩散动力学理论,对提高复杂产品研发项目抗风险能力提供建议.
This paper generates an organization-task interdependent network model based upon functional dependence between tasks and executive dependence between organizations and tasks in an complex product research and development(R&D)project.Then it develops and simulates the dynamic model of technical risk diffusion by analyzing the interaction between organizations and tasks when facing with technical risks.The results show that the technical risk diffusion caused by a few tasks can significantly turbulent the network in a short time; the diffusion process has three stages:slow stage,out of control stage,and relatively stable stage; the relationship between the organization network scale and the consequence of diffusion shows approximate "inverse U" shape;the more even executive dependence,the weaker the robustness of the network when fixes the number of organizations;there exists a best level of resource input which makes the impact of diffusion remain at the lowest level; there is no significant difference in the diffusion process under different attack strategies.This research riches the dynamic theory of risk diffusion,and has provided reference for optimization of complex product development project architecture and improving the risk resisting capacity of R&D projects.
This paper generates an organization-task interdependent network model based upon functional dependence between tasks and executive dependence between organizations and tasks in an complex product research and development(R&D)project.Then it develops and simulates the dynamic model of technical risk diffusion by analyzing the interaction between organizations and tasks when facing with technical risks.The results show that the technical risk diffusion caused by a few tasks can significantly turbulent the network in a short time; the diffusion process has three stages:slow stage,out of control stage,and relatively stable stage; the relationship between the organization network scale and the consequence of diffusion shows approximate "inverse U" shape;the more even executive dependence,the weaker the robustness of the network when fixes the number of organizations;there exists a best level of resource input which makes the impact of diffusion remain at the lowest level; there is no significant difference in the diffusion process under different attack strategies.This research riches the dynamic theory of risk diffusion,and has provided reference for optimization of complex product development project architecture and improving the risk resisting capacity of R&D projects.
引文
[1]苏越良,张卫国.基于全局的复杂产品开发项目风险协调控制方法[J].系统工程理论与实践,2008,28(5):70-76.Su Y L,Zhang W G.Study on a risk coordination control method based on overall situation for complex product development project[J].Systems Engineering一Theory&Practice,2008,28(5):70-76.
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[16]张延禄,杨乃定.R&D网络风险相继传播模型构建及仿真[J].系统工程理论实践,2014,34(3):723-731.Zhang Y L,Yang N D.Risk cascading propagation modeling and simulation in R&D network[J].Systems Engineering—Theory&Practice,2014,34(3):723-731.
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[18]铁瑞雪,杨乃定,张延禄,等.R&D网络技术风险传播模型构建及仿真[J].管理工程学报,2018,32(3):188-194.Tie R X,Yang N D,Zhang Y L,et al.Modeling and simulation of technical risk propagation in R&D network[J].Journal of Industrial Engineering/Engineering Management,2018,32(3):188-194.
[19]杨青,单晨,唐尔玲.基于返工风险传播和预处理的研发项目流程DSM优化[J].系统工程理论与实践,2015,35(6):1501-1508.Yang Q,Shan C,Tang E L.Optimization of design structure matrix in complex R&D projects based on rework risk propagation and pretreatment[J].Systems Engineering—Theory&Practice,2015,35(6):1501-1508.
[20]Wang J B,Yang N D,Zhang Y L,et al.Development of the mitigation strategy against the schedule risks of the R&D project through controlling the cascading failure of the R&D network[J].Physica A:Statistical Mechanics&its Applications,2018,508:390-401.
[21]张延禄,杨乃定.基于组织-任务网络的研发项目工期风险分析——以组织失效为风险因素[J].中国管理科学,2015,23(2):99-107.Zhang Y L,Yang N D.Analysis of R&D project schedule risk based on the organization-task network:With the organization failure as a risk factor[J].Chinese Journal of Management Science,2015,23(2):99-107.
[22]杨蜻,陈英武,沈永平·基于相互作用网络的大型工程项目组织结构风险分析[J].系统工程理论与实践,2011,31(10):1966-1973.Yang Q,Chen Y W,Shen Y P.Interdependent network based risk analysis of organizational structures for large-scale engineering project[J].Systems Engineering—Theory&Practice,2011,31(10):1966-1973.
[23]Gong J,Mitchell J E,Krishnamurthy A,et al. An interdependent layered network model for a resilient supply chain[J].Omega,2014,46(9):104-116.
[24]Buldyrev S V,Parshani R,Paul G,et al.Catastrophic cascade of failures in interdependent networks[J].Nature,2010,464(7291):1025-1028.
[25]Hu Y,Ksherim B,Cohen R,et al.Percolation in interdependent and interconnected networks:Abrupt change from second-to first-order transitions[J].Physical Review E:Statistical Nonlinear&Soft Matter Physics,2011,84(6):066116.
[26]Bashan A.Percolation in networks composed of connectivity and dependency links[J].Physical Review E:Statistical Nonlinear&Soft Matter Physics,2008,83(5):051127.
[27]Dong G,Gao J,Tian L,et al.Percolation of partially interdependent networks under targeted attack[J].Physical Review E:Statistical Nonlinear&Soft Matter Physics,2012,85(1):016112.
[28]Parshani R,Rozenblat C,Ietri D,et al.Inter-similarity between coupled networks[J].EPL,2010,92(6):68002.
[29]Korhonen T,Laine T,Martinsuo M.Management control of project portfolio uncertainty:A managerial role perspective[J].Project Management Journal,2014,45(1):21-37.
[30]杨青,吕佳芮,索尼亚.基于设计结构矩阵(DSM)的复杂研发项目建模与优化研究进展[J].系统工程理论与实践,2016,36(4):989-1002.Yang Q,Lii J R,Kherbachi S.Progress in modeling and optimization for complex R&D project based on design structure matrix[J].Systems Engineering—Theory&Practice,2016,36(4):989-1002.
[31]杨青,唐尔玲.研发项目产品与流程架构的跨领域集成与优化[J].系统工程理论与实践,2014,34(6):1525-1532.Yang Q,Tang E L.Cross-domain integration and optimization of the process and product architecture in product development projects[J].Systems Engineering—Theory&Practice,2014,34(6):1525-1532.
[32]Aaltonen K,Ahola T,Artto K.Something old,something new:Path dependence and path creation during the early stage of a project[J].International Journal of Project Management,2017,35(5):749-762.
[33]刘景东,杜鹏程.惯例视角下联盟管理能力的构成及其对联盟组合绩效的影响研究[J]·管理评论,2015,27(8):150-162.Liu J D,Du P C.The construct of alliance management ability and its influence on alliance portfolio performance from the view of routines[J].Management Review,2015,27(8):150-162.
[34]Tomasello M V,Napoletano M,Garas A,et al.The rise and fall of R&D networks[J].Industrial and Corporate Change,2017,26(4):617-646.
[35]Biggiero L,Angelini P P.Hunting scale-free properties in R&D collaboration networks:Self-organization,powerlaw and policy issues in the European aerospace research area[J].Technological Forecasting and Social Change,2015,94:21-43.
[36]Tang L,Jing K,He J,et al.Robustness of assembly supply chain networks by considering risk propagation and cascading failure[J].Physica A:Statistical Mechanics&its Applications,2016,459:129-139.
[37]Tang L,Jing K,He J,et al.Complex interdependent supply chain networks:Cascading failure and robustness[J].Physica A:Statistical Mechanics&its Applications,2016,443:58-69.
[2]Hobday M.Product complexity,innovation and industrial organisation[J].Research Policy,1998,26(6):689-710.
[3]Gokpinar B,Hopp W J,Iravani S M R.The impact of misalignment of organizational structure and product architect.ure on quality in complex product development[J].Management Science,2010,56(3):468-484.
[4]Baum J A C,Cowan R,Jonard N.Network-independent partner selection and the evolution of innovation networks[J].Management Science,2010,56(11):2094-2110.
[5] Kendrick P T.Identifying and managing project risk:Essential tools for failure-proofing your project[M].3rded.AMACOM,2009.
[6]陈明.复杂产品研发的技术风险分析与应用研究[D].上海:同济大学,2006.Chen M.Analysis and application research on technical risk of complex product development[D].Shanghai:Tongji University,2006.
[7]Christos E.The domino effect:An empirical exposition of systemic risk across project networks[J].Production&Operations Management,2010,56(11):2094-2110.
[8]Sosa M E.Realizing the need for rework:From task interdependence to social networks[J].Production&Operations Management,2015,23(8):1312-1331.
[9]Ellinas C,Allan N,Johansson A.Project systemic risk:Application examples of a network model[J].International Journal of Production Economics,2016,182:50-62.
[10]杨青,郑璐,索尼亚·研发项目中“团队-产品-功能”多领域集成与组织聚类研究[J].系统工程理论实践,2018,38(6):1557-1565.Yang Q,Zheng L,Sonia K.Multi-domain integration of team-product-function and organization clustering in product development project[J].Systems Engineering—Theory&Practice,2018,38(6):1557-1565.
[11]Fu Y,Li M,Chen F.Impact propagation and risk assessment of requirement changes for software development projects based on design structure matrix[J].International Journal of Project Management,2012,30(3):363-373.
[12]杨青,刘志林,单晨.研发项目中重叠活动间沟通对返工风险的影响分析与优化[J].系统工程理论与实践,2017,37(9):2384-2393.Yang Q,Liu Z L,Shan C.The impact analysis and optimization of communication on rework risk between overlapped activities in R&D projects[J].Systems Engineering—Theory&Practice,2017,37(9):2384-2393.
[13]Kutsch E,Hall M.Intervening conditions on the management of project risk:Dealing with uncertainty in information technology projects[J].International Journal of Project Management,2005,23(8):591-599.
[14]陈明,林桂娟.复杂产品研发技术风险管理研究与应用[J].同济大学学报(自然科学版),2009,37(8):1090-1095.Chen M,Lin G J.Technical risk management and application of complex product development[J].Journal of Tongji University(Natural Science),2009,37(8):1090-1095.
[15]Zhang Y L,Yang N D.Research on robustness of R&D network under cascading propagation of risk with gray attack information[J].Reliability Engineering&System Safety,2013,117:1-8.
[16]张延禄,杨乃定.R&D网络风险相继传播模型构建及仿真[J].系统工程理论实践,2014,34(3):723-731.Zhang Y L,Yang N D.Risk cascading propagation modeling and simulation in R&D network[J].Systems Engineering—Theory&Practice,2014,34(3):723-731.
[17]Zhang Y L,Yang N D.Development of a mitigation strategy against the cascading propagation of risk in R&D network[J].Safety Science,2014,68:161-168.
[18]铁瑞雪,杨乃定,张延禄,等.R&D网络技术风险传播模型构建及仿真[J].管理工程学报,2018,32(3):188-194.Tie R X,Yang N D,Zhang Y L,et al.Modeling and simulation of technical risk propagation in R&D network[J].Journal of Industrial Engineering/Engineering Management,2018,32(3):188-194.
[19]杨青,单晨,唐尔玲.基于返工风险传播和预处理的研发项目流程DSM优化[J].系统工程理论与实践,2015,35(6):1501-1508.Yang Q,Shan C,Tang E L.Optimization of design structure matrix in complex R&D projects based on rework risk propagation and pretreatment[J].Systems Engineering—Theory&Practice,2015,35(6):1501-1508.
[20]Wang J B,Yang N D,Zhang Y L,et al.Development of the mitigation strategy against the schedule risks of the R&D project through controlling the cascading failure of the R&D network[J].Physica A:Statistical Mechanics&its Applications,2018,508:390-401.
[21]张延禄,杨乃定.基于组织-任务网络的研发项目工期风险分析——以组织失效为风险因素[J].中国管理科学,2015,23(2):99-107.Zhang Y L,Yang N D.Analysis of R&D project schedule risk based on the organization-task network:With the organization failure as a risk factor[J].Chinese Journal of Management Science,2015,23(2):99-107.
[22]杨蜻,陈英武,沈永平·基于相互作用网络的大型工程项目组织结构风险分析[J].系统工程理论与实践,2011,31(10):1966-1973.Yang Q,Chen Y W,Shen Y P.Interdependent network based risk analysis of organizational structures for large-scale engineering project[J].Systems Engineering—Theory&Practice,2011,31(10):1966-1973.
[23]Gong J,Mitchell J E,Krishnamurthy A,et al. An interdependent layered network model for a resilient supply chain[J].Omega,2014,46(9):104-116.
[24]Buldyrev S V,Parshani R,Paul G,et al.Catastrophic cascade of failures in interdependent networks[J].Nature,2010,464(7291):1025-1028.
[25]Hu Y,Ksherim B,Cohen R,et al.Percolation in interdependent and interconnected networks:Abrupt change from second-to first-order transitions[J].Physical Review E:Statistical Nonlinear&Soft Matter Physics,2011,84(6):066116.
[26]Bashan A.Percolation in networks composed of connectivity and dependency links[J].Physical Review E:Statistical Nonlinear&Soft Matter Physics,2008,83(5):051127.
[27]Dong G,Gao J,Tian L,et al.Percolation of partially interdependent networks under targeted attack[J].Physical Review E:Statistical Nonlinear&Soft Matter Physics,2012,85(1):016112.
[28]Parshani R,Rozenblat C,Ietri D,et al.Inter-similarity between coupled networks[J].EPL,2010,92(6):68002.
[29]Korhonen T,Laine T,Martinsuo M.Management control of project portfolio uncertainty:A managerial role perspective[J].Project Management Journal,2014,45(1):21-37.
[30]杨青,吕佳芮,索尼亚.基于设计结构矩阵(DSM)的复杂研发项目建模与优化研究进展[J].系统工程理论与实践,2016,36(4):989-1002.Yang Q,Lii J R,Kherbachi S.Progress in modeling and optimization for complex R&D project based on design structure matrix[J].Systems Engineering—Theory&Practice,2016,36(4):989-1002.
[31]杨青,唐尔玲.研发项目产品与流程架构的跨领域集成与优化[J].系统工程理论与实践,2014,34(6):1525-1532.Yang Q,Tang E L.Cross-domain integration and optimization of the process and product architecture in product development projects[J].Systems Engineering—Theory&Practice,2014,34(6):1525-1532.
[32]Aaltonen K,Ahola T,Artto K.Something old,something new:Path dependence and path creation during the early stage of a project[J].International Journal of Project Management,2017,35(5):749-762.
[33]刘景东,杜鹏程.惯例视角下联盟管理能力的构成及其对联盟组合绩效的影响研究[J]·管理评论,2015,27(8):150-162.Liu J D,Du P C.The construct of alliance management ability and its influence on alliance portfolio performance from the view of routines[J].Management Review,2015,27(8):150-162.
[34]Tomasello M V,Napoletano M,Garas A,et al.The rise and fall of R&D networks[J].Industrial and Corporate Change,2017,26(4):617-646.
[35]Biggiero L,Angelini P P.Hunting scale-free properties in R&D collaboration networks:Self-organization,powerlaw and policy issues in the European aerospace research area[J].Technological Forecasting and Social Change,2015,94:21-43.
[36]Tang L,Jing K,He J,et al.Robustness of assembly supply chain networks by considering risk propagation and cascading failure[J].Physica A:Statistical Mechanics&its Applications,2016,459:129-139.
[37]Tang L,Jing K,He J,et al.Complex interdependent supply chain networks:Cascading failure and robustness[J].Physica A:Statistical Mechanics&its Applications,2016,443:58-69.